OP, swing and a miss.

Like I've said with every one of these reports for the past few decades: If I can't see it reflected in my gas prices, grocery bill, and mortgage/rent, no amount of "Look at how good the economy/market is," is going to mean anything.

The reality is these types of feel-good numbers have been put out in every administration since as far back as I can remember, and every time, they looked good to some yet meant nothing in the real world of others.

At the end of the day, if your livelihood requires something that's naturally volatile because of the nature of politics, like how the overall economy or market is doing, then you need to make better choices in life.

Funny, Q4 is usually our busiest quarter for new orders, but we are WAY down this year. Our inventory levels are the highest they have been in 3 years as things are not moving nearly as fast.

Reality does not support these reported numbers.

Philip J Fry said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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I need to see how that number was derived because again, the public isn't perceiving that growth.

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Government spending.

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Not as much as other factors...


Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected accelerations in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending and upturns in exports and residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in state and local government spending. Imports turned up.

https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2023-advance-estimate

rocky the dog said:

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Where did you get this? His briefing with this information is not scheduled for another 4 hours!

For the OP, let's provide some fact-checking and context...

https://www.gop.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=661

Quote:

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MAKE NO MISTAKE: Since Biden took office, prices have risen 17.1%. America's surging inflation crisis is a direct result of Biden and Extreme Democrats' reckless spending, which House Republicans are committed to reining in.

BIDENOMICS BY THE NUMBERS:

• Inflation is a tax on ALL Americans.
• Americans are paying more for just about everything because of inflation.
  
  • Frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks are UP 22.1%
  • Motor vehicle insurance is UP 19.2%
  • Frozen vegetables are UP 10.7%
  • Uncooked beef steaks are UP 10.6%
  • Transportation services are UP 9.2%
  • Sugar and sugar substitutes are UP 8.8%
  • Baby food and formula are UP 8.3%
  • Frozen fruits and vegetables are UP 8.0%
  • Sauces and gravies are UP 7.5%
  • Rent of primary residence is UP 7.2%
  • Uncooked turkey is UP 7.2%
  • White bread is UP 7.1%
  • Shelter is UP 6.7%
  • Crackers are UP 6.0%
  • Rolls are UP 5.7%
  • Food away from home is UP 5.4%
  • Flour is UP 3.2%
  • Frozen pies are UP 2.7%
• When Joe Biden took office, inflation was at just 1.4%.
• Prices have risen by 17.1% since Biden took office.
• Under Joe Biden's failed economic agenda, Americans are spending $709 more per month to buy the exact same goods and services than they did just two years ago.
• According to a recent AP/NORC poll:
  
  • "About two-thirds of adults say their household expenses have risen over the last year."
  • 73% describe the national economy as poor.
• According to a recent WSJ/NORC poll only 36% of voters said the American dream still holds true, substantially fewer than the 53% who said so in 2012 and 48% in 2016.
• In October, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000, falling well short of the 189,000 economists expected.
  
  • The unemployment rate increased to 3.9%
  • 6.5 million Americans remain unemployed.
  • Manufacturing LOST 35,000 jobs.
  • Transportation and warehousing LOST 12,000 jobs.
  • Information employment LOST 9,000 jobs.
  • Motion picture and sound recording LOST 5,000 jobs.

---

Opalka said:

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Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

Are these the same numbers that they end up correcting 9 months later to be significantly less that originally thought.

I don't believe anything posted about this economy by this admin to be accurate.

Opalka said:

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Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

You have to give the Dems credit, they have figured out the way to solve this problem is to just change the way we count things. Inflation? Just look at the cost of hamburger this month and hot dogs next month, whichever give us the number we want.

If you haven't figured it out yet our government lies to us constantly now. Believe what you see in front of your face. For instance I got a 30 Piece Tender Meal for the Family from Chicken Express earlier this week. It's great because we end up having leftovers for a couple days. Used to be $27.99 in 2000. It's $58.99 now. Oh, and the chicken pieces are smaller.

We used to laugh about the Soviets and Pravda, now we embrace it.

fka ftc said:

---

For the OP, let's provide some fact-checking and context...

https://www.gop.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=661

Quote:

---

MAKE NO MISTAKE: Since Biden took office, prices have risen 17.1%. America's surging inflation crisis is a direct result of Biden and Extreme Democrats' reckless spending, which House Republicans are committed to reining in.

BIDENOMICS BY THE NUMBERS:

• Inflation is a tax on ALL Americans.
• Americans are paying more for just about everything because of inflation.
  
  • Frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks are UP 22.1%
  • Motor vehicle insurance is UP 19.2%
  • Frozen vegetables are UP 10.7%
  • Uncooked beef steaks are UP 10.6%
  • Transportation services are UP 9.2%
  • Sugar and sugar substitutes are UP 8.8%
  • Baby food and formula are UP 8.3%
  • Frozen fruits and vegetables are UP 8.0%
  • Sauces and gravies are UP 7.5%
  • Rent of primary residence is UP 7.2%
  • Uncooked turkey is UP 7.2%
  • White bread is UP 7.1%
  • Shelter is UP 6.7%
  • Crackers are UP 6.0%
  • Rolls are UP 5.7%
  • Food away from home is UP 5.4%
  • Flour is UP 3.2%
  • Frozen pies are UP 2.7%
• When Joe Biden took office, inflation was at just 1.4%.
• Prices have risen by 17.1% since Biden took office.
• Under Joe Biden's failed economic agenda, Americans are spending $709 more per month to buy the exact same goods and services than they did just two years ago.
• According to a recent AP/NORC poll:
  
  • "About two-thirds of adults say their household expenses have risen over the last year."
  • 73% describe the national economy as poor.
• According to a recent WSJ/NORC poll only 36% of voters said the American dream still holds true, substantially fewer than the 53% who said so in 2012 and 48% in 2016.
• In October, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000, falling well short of the 189,000 economists expected.
  
  • The unemployment rate increased to 3.9%
  • 6.5 million Americans remain unemployed.
  • Manufacturing LOST 35,000 jobs.
  • Transportation and warehousing LOST 12,000 jobs.
  • Information employment LOST 9,000 jobs.
  • Motion picture and sound recording LOST 5,000 jobs.

---

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That's gonna leave a mark.

Quote:

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Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%

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Thank you, Mike Tyson, for punching me slower!

81,000,000 followers

EskimoJoe said:

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Funny, Q4 is usually our busiest quarter for new orders, but we are WAY down this year. Our inventory levels are the highest they have been in 3 years as things are not moving nearly as fast.

Reality does not support these reported numbers.

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I noticed a line in the report saying inventory numbers are high, and article seemed to suggest that it was contributing to a higher GDP.

In our business, when our customers have high inventory, its a terrible thing. They aren't buying ***** Customers are showing high inventory levels well into Q1 of next year.

Philip J Fry said:

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Should also recognize that your 401K hasn't grown in almost 3 years. even if it up 17% this year. That's how much wealth Biden has wiped out.

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We've lost 200K in retirement plans since Biden became President.

Opalka said:

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Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

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Lol.

You believed the government?

Would you like to buy some oceanfront property from me?

DallasAg 94 said:

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2024 is going to be one BRUTAL year.

Dig your heels in and prepare for a huge fallout.

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If we end up with the combo of Trump presidency and a Dem congress, we're gonna get showered with fiscal stimulus that has a chance to make the Covid fiscal stimulus blush.

You want to see runaway inflation? A Trump/Dem Congress is how you get there.

Anecdotal I know, but I went out to brave the Thanksgiving weekend shopping bonanza I always hear about. (traditionally, I never go out on Black Friday and the following weekend).

I went to Walmart fully expecting it to look like Beirut as it usually does during Christmas season and it was somewhat busy, but nowhere near the madhouse I thought it would be.

Then I took a chance at the mall. Surprisingly I found easy front row parking which never happens. It had a good number of shoppers, but again, nothing crazy.

But I also dined out this weekend and was pretty shocked at how dead all the restaurants were. I don't know if it was a turkey hangover that kept them out, or that people were choosing to shop with their dollars instead of eating with them, but crowds were way below usual at restaurants. I haven't seen numbers, but in my experience the two biggest places inflation has hit me is at the grocery store and at restaurants. Dining out has gotten insane.

Opalka said:

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Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

Why am I spending more (since 2020) and getting less? I guess it not real.

Opalka said:

---

Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

Must be nice to like 3.2% inflation. I certainly don't.

I'm fortunate enough to work for an employer that gives annual cost of living adjustments. They average between 1-3%. so after the 30% inflation we saw the last few years, we are lagging way behind, and if I'm lucky, the 3% adjustment I might get this year only covers this year's inflation....which means my purchasing power is still vastly lower than 2 years ago.

but BRAVO, I guess....

Remove government spending from GDP and it goes negative. Government spending is not real growth, in fact it's the opposite. As it forces people to spend on things they otherwise would not have.

Opalka said:

---

Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

Nothing can save your savior Biden. But keep fetching that water. Americans are suffering and your savior is hated more than Trump lol! What losers Democrats are!

Opalka said:

---

Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

Maybe that's why people are cashing in their 401ks! Because the market is doing so great!

You have a big cost issue to overcome. That's your main problem.

Something is off even with GDP growth being one natural outcome of inflation. The one (and only) effective tool Biden has used to fight that inflation is raising the interest rates. He has done this 11 times since March 2022, going from .25% to 5.33% Higher interest would seemingly drive people to save more and spend less, but it clearly is not doing that if this number is legitimate. Even when it makes auto, home, and business loans far more expensive (well doesn't that just suck?). I guess borrowers think Santa Biden will come through and forgive it eventually?

Red Dane said:

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Something is off even with GDP growth being one natural outcome of inflation. The one (and only) effective tool Biden has used to fight that inflation is raising the interest rates. He has done this 11 times since March 2022, going from .25% to 5.33% Higher interest would seemingly drive people to save more and spend less, but it clearly is not doing that if this number is legitimate. Even when it makes auto, home, and business loans far more expensive (well doesn't that just suck?). I guess borrowers think Santa Biden will come through and forgive it eventually?

---

You're ignoring the MASSIVE amount of stimulus from the treasury at the same time the Fed has been tightening.

Biden extended and eased requirements of employee retention credits. 3 years after the pandemic we are still paying about $400 billion annualized in covid stimulus through ERC.

Bank term funding program was a boon for underwater banks.

Yellen drew down the TGA to essentially 0.

We're riding the brakes and punching the gas at the same time. If not for the Fed, Biden would have inflation at about 15% (according to his measures).

The left is only skillful at propaganda because they control a sizable chunk of the msm and almost all of the federal bureaucracy. No one with a functioning brain believes the OP's BS.

And once again the OP hasn't returned to counter any of the points put forth to him. Classic.

B-1 83 said:

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And once again the OP hasn't returned to counter any of the points put forth to him. Classic.

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Every stinking time!

I will give the OP bonus points on consistency.

cheeky said:

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It Aint Easy Being Brown said:

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How many times have the quarterly numbers been reported correctly since Biden seized power?

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The employment data has been revised down for 12 consecutive months. Twelve. In. A. Row.

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unexpectedly

Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

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Finn said:

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OP,
Ask yourself this, "If the fed is rising the rate to kill off inflation/economy, how is it good for USA/inflation if the gdp is still growing?"

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This is akin to asking an orangutan to explain string theory.

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Clean up on aisle 4!

Opalka said:

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Well doesn't that just suck...the GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. Yes, it's not going to stay that way, but still EXCELLENT news. Christmas spending is in full swing this quarter, and reports have been very good there also.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-in-the-third-quarter-raised-to-5-2-rate-of-growth-21abd484?mod=home-page

Oh, and the current inflation rate is only 3.2%.
O&G prices are down...I've seen gas prices at less than $3 per gallon lately.
My 401K is up 17% this year so far.

Man, that's gotta be a downer for some of you Eeyore types.that are always pessimistic.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS anyway!!

---

Inflation is a 3.2% but the cost of a loaf of bread is up nearly 75% in a year? Something is not adding up...

The inflation numbers are total BS. So there is that.

They have adjusted the rules to avoid high COLA payments.