aunuwyn08 said:

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95% chance Iran is just barking again and won't do anything.

Russia too busy to help, America too leaderless to restrain Israel, and Israel is actively taking scalps. Not the time to test the water if they're rational whatsoever.

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Nope.

US pitching in.

"USS Bulkely (DDG-84) and USS Cole (DDG-67) fired a dozen interceptors as part of the U.S. response to Iranian missiles launched at Israel, the Pentagon announced Tuesday."

DESTROYERS

"The U.S. will send three additional squadrons of fighter and attack aircraft to the region: an F-16 squadron, an F-15E Strike Eagle squadron, and an A-10 squadron, Air & Space Forces Magazine has learned. The U.S. is also extending the deployment of current aircraft units in the Middle East to increase the overall number of fighters and attack aircraft in the region, officials said."

FIGHTERS

74OA said:

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US pitching in.

"USS Bulkely (DDG-84) and USS Cole (DDG-67) fired a dozen interceptors as part of the U.S. response to Iranian missiles launched at Israel, the Pentagon announced Tuesday."

DESTROYERS

"The U.S. will send three additional squadrons of fighter and attack aircraft to the region: an F-16 squadron, an F-15E Strike Eagle squadron, and an A-10 squadron, Air & Space Forces Magazine has learned. The U.S. is also extending the deployment of current aircraft units in the Middle East to increase the overall number of fighters and attack aircraft in the region, officials said."

FIGHTERS

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Interesting move on the A-10's. That sounds like some kind of ground invasion could be possible.

Doesn't sound like Israel is just going to just take this one...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-will-continue-to-strike-powerfully-in-mideast-tonight-says-idf-spokesman/

Quote:

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IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari tells reporters that the Israeli Air Force "continues to operate at full capacity, and tonight will also continue to strike powerfully in the Middle East, as has been the case for the past year."

"The Israeli and US air defense systems operated effectively. There was close cooperation in detection and interception," he says on the Iranian attack of 180 missiles on Israel.

"We are still investigating [the result of the attack] and do not want to give the enemy all the information," Hagari says.

"Iran carried out a serious act tonight and is pushing the Middle East to an escalation. We will act at the place and time of our choosing, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon," he continues.
"Tonight's event will have consequences," Hagari adds.

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TH36 said:

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74OA said:

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US pitching in.

"USS Bulkely (DDG-84) and USS Cole (DDG-67) fired a dozen interceptors as part of the U.S. response to Iranian missiles launched at Israel, the Pentagon announced Tuesday."

DESTROYERS

"The U.S. will send three additional squadrons of fighter and attack aircraft to the region: an F-16 squadron, an F-15E Strike Eagle squadron, and an A-10 squadron, Air & Space Forces Magazine has learned. The U.S. is also extending the deployment of current aircraft units in the Middle East to increase the overall number of fighters and attack aircraft in the region, officials said."

FIGHTERS

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Interesting move on the A-10's. That sounds like some kind of ground invasion could be possible.

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VERY UNLIKELY

txags92 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Currently no casualties from missiles. Must have targeted non targets.

https://www.youtube.com/live/3beva9dpe2A?si=fgO7hEsqQTTt18Pl

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Or the Israelis managed to intercept all of the ones headed for populated areas and let the ones headed for the desert or the med go.

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Sad either way. The Negev is a beautiful place.

Iran invading... who? They don't want to basically piss of all the Arabs by invading Iraq. That will turn their righteous "war against Jews and the West" and turn it into: "You're going to accept our version of the religion and you'll like it" overnight. What A-10s would be good for is hitting fast patrol boats and swarms with some very heavy cannon fire and getting away in a hot AD zone. Otherwise the 15's and 16s are better suited for everything else. Mostly.

My comment was made because the A-10 doesn't come to mind when I think of aircraft that would be used to intercept missiles. Maybe drones? But not missiles. That's why I said it was an interesting choice of aircraft to send over there.

According to the Wall Street Journal; Israel had recently told Iran through Back-Channels that they would Respond to any Attack on their Territory, no matter how big or small, and not dependent on if there were Casualties. With Strikes against Iran’s Nuclear and Oil Facilities…

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 1, 2024

A Senior Israeli Security Official reportedly urged the Defense Establishment to Target the Iranian Supreme-Leader, Ali Khamenei in Response to tonight’s Ballistic Missile Attack. pic.twitter.com/hnKVSZ5mZk

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 1, 2024

ProgN said:

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A Senior Israeli Security Official reportedly urged the Defense Establishment to Target the Iranian Supreme-Leader, Ali Khamenei in Response to tonight’s Ballistic Missile Attack. pic.twitter.com/hnKVSZ5mZk

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 1, 2024

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this guy is probably hiding in another country as a cab driver.. heck, some dude that gave me an Uber ride today look like him.. he may be in Houston delivering for Grub hub by now

and if hes not, I would go deep deep underground and get rid of any pagers or cells phones!

Isreal is fixing to take out some high ranking Iranian military folks I would bet.. those attached to events going on in Lebanon and Palestine. They are pretty much already doing that

It does appear that Iran missed their mark yesterday

Video of Iranian missile directly hitting a man in Gaza (though it appears to have malfunctioned and not exploded, killng the man through physical impact alone)pic.twitter.com/L5jHpJRkG4

— Marina Medvin 🇺🇸 (@MarinaMedvin) October 1, 2024

Filmed from flight deck of an airliner near Shiraz, Iran. No warning from ATC who had no idea. Turned away immediately. pic.twitter.com/Iq6k6jY9Zm

— Tim L-G🇺🇦 (@IntercityFC) October 1, 2024

Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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From what we saw on video. I agree, a miracle. Thank you Jesus!

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Of the 180 to 200 missiles fired, how many got through the AD and hit their targets?

The video of the guy walking and the rocket landing on him is just brutal. A couple feet either way and he's still alive.

TH36 said:

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My comment was made because the A-10 doesn't come to mind when I think of aircraft that would be used to intercept missiles. Maybe drones? But not missiles. That's why I said it was an interesting choice of aircraft to send over there.

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I would assume Iran has tanks and other ground targets?

Shoefly! said:

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TH36 said:

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My comment was made because the A-10 doesn't come to mind when I think of aircraft that would be used to intercept missiles. Maybe drones? But not missiles. That's why I said it was an interesting choice of aircraft to send over there.

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I would assume Iran has tanks and other ground targets?

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Probably the most likely use of A-10s is defense of US bases in Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere that Iranian backed forces may be able to attack. If the US did get involved in offensive actions, I could see A-10s involved in something like Operation Praying Mantis or in defense of Navy ships but I highly doubt we see US aircraft active over Iranian ground.

Gilligan said:

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Iran has poked the bear.

I hope Israel's response is 100 fold and sets Iran back 100 years. It will be truly amazing if they actually go for and get the Assahola Khomeanie!

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How about a different take?

Hit one, and only one target. Don't hit a major export terminal, refinery, or nuke site. Just hit a major feeder line going into a major export facility and shut it down for a while. Let the concept set in that it could have been an all out attack and there's not a $&#@#&* thing Iran could do about it even with the best preparations. Perhaps that's asking too much to pull off

Very few and they were wildly inaccurate. Iran has capability of launching very accurate short range ballistic missiles as we saw with their attack after the assassination of Soleimani.

It seems like their long-range missiles were pretty darn awful in terms of actually hitting anything. It was a pray and spray approach yesterday.

It's also difficult to discern because Israel's air defenses automatically calculate trajectories and prioritize defending against the more accurate looking threats. So it is quite possible that many of the missiles we saw hitting the ground were known to be off target and Israel didn't want to waste air defense rounds.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Very few and they were wildly inaccurate. Iran has capability of launching very accurate short range ballistic missiles as we saw with their attack after the assassination of Soleimani.

It seems like their long-range missiles were pretty darn awful in terms of actually hitting anything. It was a pray and spray approach yesterday.

It's also difficult to discern because Israel's air defenses automatically calculate trajectories and prioritize defending against the more accurate looking threats. So it is quite possible that many of the missiles we saw hitting the ground were known to be off target and Israel didn't want to waste air defense rounds.

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Probably stuff they got off of BFF North Korea.

Iran is a different animal. It seems a vast amount of Iranians want freedom and a return to a more western society like they had before the radicals took over.

If I had to bet, Israel is really thinking this through and if they attack, it will be a very surgical approach to help free these people and put an end to the never-ending battle with the radical Islamic regime. Wiping out the whole country or even massive amounts of infrastructure won't solve anything in the long run. Regime change is where it's at when so many are desperate for it. I would assume there are many Mossad agents deeply imbedded in the Iranian gov't and Israel is close to executing a major plan here.

This is a WAG and I don't have any deep understanding of the region, etc, but after the pager/walkie-talkie thing(amazing), another chess move wouldn't surprise me a bit. Rest assured too, the current non-trustworthy Biden admin would know nothing about this either, cause they would just leak it in advance.

Jack Squat 83 said:

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Iran is a different animal. It seems a vast amount of Iranians want freedom and a return to a more western society like they had before the radicals took over.

If I had to bet, Israel is really thinking this through and if they attack, it will be a very surgical approach to help free these people and put an end to the never-ending battle with the radical Islamic regime. Wiping out the whole country or even massive amounts of infrastructure won't solve anything in the long run. Regime change is where it's at when so many are desperate for it. I would assume there are many Mossad agents deeply imbedded in the Iranian gov't and Israel is close to executing a major plan here.

This is a WAG and I don't have any deep understanding of the region, etc, but after the pager/walkie-talkie thing(amazing), another chess move wouldn't surprise me a bit. Rest assured too, the current non-trustworthy Biden admin would know nothing about this either, cause they would just leak it in advance.

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I completely agree with the bolded part of your post and if I was Israel, this is what I'd do. I'd obliterate every IRGC facility that I could. If the mullahs lose the IRGC, then the citizens will finish off the mullahs. Take out their protection and arm the civilians, then they'll be able to take back their country.

B-1 83 said:

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Gilligan said:

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Iran has poked the bear.

I hope Israel's response is 100 fold and sets Iran back 100 years. It will be truly amazing if they actually go for and get the Assahola Khomeanie!

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How about a different take?

Hit one, and only one target. Don't hit a major export terminal, refinery, or nuke site. Just hit a major feeder line going into a major export facility and shut it down for a while. Let the concept set in that it could have been an all out attack and there's not a $&#@#&* thing Iran could do about it even with the best preparations. Perhaps that's asking too much to pull off

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Over 90 percent of Iran's petroleum exports are via one island terminal in the Persian Gulf. Kharg Island could be 'sunk' pretty easily by the Israeli's, but the question is what do they really want to achieve.

NEW: Israel has decided to conduct a "harsh response" against Iran, according Kann News https://t.co/RRqXnePaEz

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) October 2, 2024

Would keep in mind that Israel doesn't (at least publicly) have a ton of ballistic missiles to fire back at Iran. Their missile programs are advanced but likely focused on nuclear deterrent rather than this type of strike.

Any strike would likely be cyber and/or air-based. Air-based attacks would likely be limited to standoff missiles. Attacking the nuclear sites would be difficult because they are hardened and bunker busters are not standoff munitions. Iran and Israel are 1000km apart at the shortest distance and the targets Israel would want to hit are away from the border.

Getting air assets directly over Iran would be difficult given fuel limitations and tankers would be spotted by observers (if not shot at) due to having to loiter over Iraq or Syria. This could be why they took out the Syrian air defenses yesterday - clearing room for tankers to loiter.

However, Kharg Island is well south of Syria. Standoff munitions would have to be launched from Iraqi or Saudi airspace. Stealthy F-35s are not capable of carrying the very long standoff munitions likely needed for this strike (at least if they want to maintain stealth). F-15I would probably be used. If they go this route they likely have F-35s leading the way to jam radars while the F-15s follow and launch over Iraq. I doubt they use Saudi airspace.

The Italian tanker aircraft refueled Israeli jets striking the Houthis back in July. Would not be surprised to see friendly NATO tanker aircraft loitering over the Red Sea very soon.

Agreed. Israel can get their jets anywhere they need them.

Italy is part of the joint counter-terror partnership to secure the ocean against the Houthi aggression.

There's not a joint agreement to counter Iran militarily. Very doubtful Israel gets an assist.

Pretty much what I was getting at. Kharg could be shut down without destroying it - it ceases to function with little to nothing getting to it. To totally wipe out Kharg might ultimately bite the world oil market in the ass and hurt some friendly nations (it would, however piss off the Chi-Coms to no end), but let Iran know it darn sure could have been done and there's not a thing Iran could do to stop it.