I haven't watched this thread every day or anything, so if this question has already then answered, then sorry. But back when this thing started, there would be some claim of atrocity (like the "bombing" of the "hospital" that ended up being a Palestinian rocket hitting a parking lot) and I could usually go find the true story on what happened. I haven't had time to keep doing that.

So is there a web-site that stays up to date on the "real story" behind accused Israeli atrocities? I would say a "neutral" web site, but I doubt such a thing actually exists. So absent that, I would prefer a site that shows the Israeli retort to any given Palestinian claim since they have proven to be more honest than the Palestinian side.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ Is a pro-Israeli news source that's very up to date on the conflict

Update: https://t.co/wjKog8RAOo

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 15, 2024

The best spot to get instant information about what is happening:

🚨Sirens sounding in Haifa and along Israel’s coast🚨

We’re operating to break this morning routine. pic.twitter.com/9RE7kUjUjM

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 15, 2024

Israel assures US it plans to target Iran's military, not oil or nuclear sites, source says | CNN Politics

Quote:

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Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have assured the United States that a counterstrike on Iran will be limited to military targets rather than oil or nuclear facilities, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

President Joe Biden, who has conveyed in public his opposition to striking Tehran's nuclear and oil facilities, discussed Israel's plans with Netanyahu during a classified phone call last week. In that conversation, Netanyahu relayed to Biden his plan to hit military targets, the person said.

The Washington Post first reported that Netanyahu had reassured Biden of his plans to avoid nuclear and oil targets.

Responding to that report, Netanyahu's office said it will consider US opinions but ultimately decide its response to Iran's October 1 attack based on its own national interests. And American officials said they were still closely coordinating with Israel as it decides how to respond.

"We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests," Netanyahu's office wrote on X.

The White House, which hasn't commented on Netanyahu's reported message about avoiding nuclear and oil facilities, previously described the phone call between the leaders last week as "productive" and "direct." It was their first conversation in nearly two months.

Israel's deliberations over how to respond to Iran come at a moment of high tensions in the year-long conflict, which has expanded beyond Gaza into Lebanon. At the White House, officials have worked to limit Israel's retaliation to the barrage of ballistic missiles, hoping to prevent a wider war.

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Even if this is true, why would we tell they world and Iran what Israel won't hit?

I also read where Israel's retaliation will be calibrated to avoid the perception of "political interference in the U.S. elections." Wondering if that means they don't strike until after US elections. Long time to wait

txaggie_08 said:

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I also read where Israel's retaliation will be calibrated to avoid the perception of "political interference in the U.S. elections." Wondering if that means they don't strike until after US elections. Long time to wait

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probable won't strike oil production/refinery targets that would cause gas prices to go up

Iran has threatened to close the straight of Hormuz if any O&G infrastructure gets hit which will likely send oil over $100, some have even said close to $200

txaggie_08 said:

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I also read where Israel's retaliation will be calibrated to avoid the perception of "political interference in the U.S. elections." Wondering if that means they don't strike until after US elections. Long time to wait

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They've been fighting for decades in this latest round. A few weeks is nothing in the long game.

P.U.T.U said:

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Iran has threatened to close the straight of Hormuz if any O&G infrastructure gets hit which will likely send oil over $100, some have even said close to $200

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Zeihan's Patreon video this morning talked about oil going well north of that and the potential for a Saudi/Iran hot war. In that scenario the United States Pres would likely enact oil protection laws here which would split the market and keep oil prices low for most states but the rest of the world would be hosed.

Ironically, California Imports a huge amount of oil from Saudi Arabia due to regulations against pipelines coming from places like Texas.

txags92 said:

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ProgN said:

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Israel assures US it plans to target Iran's military, not oil or nuclear sites, source says | CNN Politics

Quote:

---

Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have assured the United States that a counterstrike on Iran will be limited to military targets rather than oil or nuclear facilities, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

President Joe Biden, who has conveyed in public his opposition to striking Tehran's nuclear and oil facilities, discussed Israel's plans with Netanyahu during a classified phone call last week. In that conversation, Netanyahu relayed to Biden his plan to hit military targets, the person said.

The Washington Post first reported that Netanyahu had reassured Biden of his plans to avoid nuclear and oil targets.

Responding to that report, Netanyahu's office said it will consider US opinions but ultimately decide its response to Iran's October 1 attack based on its own national interests. And American officials said they were still closely coordinating with Israel as it decides how to respond.

"We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests," Netanyahu's office wrote on X.

The White House, which hasn't commented on Netanyahu's reported message about avoiding nuclear and oil facilities, previously described the phone call between the leaders last week as "productive" and "direct." It was their first conversation in nearly two months.

Israel's deliberations over how to respond to Iran come at a moment of high tensions in the year-long conflict, which has expanded beyond Gaza into Lebanon. At the White House, officials have worked to limit Israel's retaliation to the barrage of ballistic missiles, hoping to prevent a wider war.

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Even if this is true, why would we tell they world and Iran what Israel won't hit?

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Because our people leaking prefer Iran over Israel. Leaking it makes it easier for Iran to know where to prioritize their air defenses.

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Which is why I don't think Israel is sharing their actual plans with the administration.

Agreed, just found another article that stated as such. Too many of Iran's enemies like the UAE would take a huge hit by not being able to export oil via ships.

The US just placed more sanctions on Iran since they keep getting around the other sanctions. At this point sanctions are similar to a slap on the wrist.

Iran and oil prices

Quote:

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An Iranian blockade, or an attempt at such, of the narrow strait between Oman and Iran connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea could easily send oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel and reaching all-time highs, analysts say.

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OPAG said:

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Quote:

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Iran has threatened to close the straight of Hormuz if any O&G infrastructure gets hit which will likely send oil over $100, some have even said close to $200

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"Threatening to close" and "being able to close" the strait are two entirely different things.

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Last time Iran tried to stop the flow of oil in the gulf

An Oil Tank at the Petro Shushtar Refinery in the Khuzestan Province of Southwestern Iran exploded earlier tonight, resulting in the Death of a Worker and the Injury of several others; with Firefighting Crews on-site attempting to Extinguish a Large Fire caused by the Explosion. pic.twitter.com/XeJ9Em25c2

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 15, 2024

Firefighters have so far been unable to gain Control of the Large Fire at the Petro Shushtar Refinery in the Khuzestan Province of Southwestern Iran. pic.twitter.com/hif1tB29za

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 15, 2024

The Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas Araghchi has arrived in the Egyptian Capital of Cairo tonight, as his Series of Diplomatic Visits across the Middle East continues; with him in the last week having traveled to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Oman, and Qatar. Iran… pic.twitter.com/juVCbtDmhp

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2024

4 said:

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txaggie02 said:

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If a target presents itself, then you gotta hit it. There should be no safe haven for these dirt bags. Israel is doing what should be done and what the leaders of our country don't have the balls to do.

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I pray to God that Israel decimates their nuclear and oil sites. There won't be another opportunity like this for a while, and by all accounts Iran is really, really close to enriching enough material for a bomb

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This is 100% correct

if there is not the ability or the will to strike now, there never will be

imagine the last year of anarchy

then add in the Islamic Republic threatening to nuke Paris and London and Washington

4 said:

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Here's the real question...

WHY WHY WHY would the Biden administration POSSIBLY be encouraging Israel not to take out Iran's oil or nuclear facilities??

The answer to that is truly scary.

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Because they don't want a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv if they don't get all of their nuclear facilities.

bthotugigem05 said:

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4 said:

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Here's the real question...

WHY WHY WHY would the Biden administration POSSIBLY be encouraging Israel not to take out Iran's oil or nuclear facilities??

The answer to that is truly scary.

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Because they don't want a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv if they don't get all of their nuclear facilities.

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Iran may be close to developing a nuke.

But, putting that nuke on a delivery system is another totally different problem that I doubt Iran is close to solving.

4 said:

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Here's the real question...

WHY WHY WHY would the Biden administration POSSIBLY be encouraging Israel not to take out Iran's oil or nuclear facilities??

The answer to that is truly scary.

---

I could see the oil. It would cause oil prices to go up. a) It's bad politically for Harris and b) It's bad for the American people

The nukes? I have yet to figure out why this administration is so hellbent on letting Iran develop and keep their nuke program.

Zeihan talked about this in a recent video.

If managed properly, a global oil shock would not necessarily have to affect the United States very much. We are the world's largest exporter of refined oil products. We have plenty of our own oil to supply the country. There are already laws on the books allowing the president to simply issue an executive order to stop exports and redirect US oil for internal consumption.

The outlier would possibly be California because they refuse to build a pipeline infrastructure to get oil from Texas. California actually imports oil from Saudi Arabia so they can pretend to be clean locally.

To keep it more on topic, the rest of the world including the middle east, china, india, europe, japan, etc absolutely have no interest in seeing a global supply shock. Iran itself is a small player in the global market but if Iran attacks infrastructure throughout the rest of the Middle East it would put many many countries in a pickle.

Israel has a good relationship with India and with places like South Korea as well. They don't want to do anything that would harm the supporters they have on the global stage.

The Airlift of Air Defense Equipment and American Servicemembers to Israel continues, with yet another U.S. Air Force C-17 Military Transport from the 69th Air Defense Artillery Brigade at Fort Cavazos in Texas, preparing to land in Southern Israel. pic.twitter.com/LuZJcbMvCM

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2024

Bet this is a THAAD to protect Dimena (? Israeli nuke facility)

AtticusMatlock said:

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Zeihan talked about this in a recent video.

If managed properly, a global oil shock would not necessarily have to affect the United States very much. We are the world's largest exporter of refined oil products. We have plenty of our own oil to supply the country. There are already laws on the books allowing the president to simply issue an executive order to stop exports and redirect US oil for internal consumption.

The outlier would possibly be California because they refuse to build a pipeline infrastructure to get oil from Texas. California actually imports oil from Saudi Arabia so they can pretend to be clean locally.

To keep it more on topic, the rest of the world including the middle east, china, india, europe, japan, etc absolutely have no interest in seeing a global supply shock. Iran itself is a small player in the global market but if Iran attacks infrastructure throughout the rest of the Middle East it would put many many countries in a pickle.

Israel has a good relationship with India and with places like South Korea as well. They don't want to do anything that would harm the supporters they have on the global stage.

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Our refineries aren't set up to handle shale oil exclusively. We import for a reason.

https://www.youtube.com/live/X3DA7T6oEoc?si=UBYub-jAdH6x7VXi

Interesting discussion of Israel's motivations and repercussions for USA based on Israel's actions. Former US Ambassador Charles Freeman

4 said:

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Here's the real question...

WHY WHY WHY would the Biden administration POSSIBLY be encouraging Israel not to take out Iran's oil or nuclear facilities??

The answer to that is truly scary.

---

I think it's a few things

1. Obama and his cronies don't have a problem with the Islamic Republic

2. They don't want the price of oil to go up before the election

3. They don't want Netanyahu to be successful

4. they are worried about having to do something as a response to a larger war