I understand this is expert opinion, but I just don't see that happening. Not going into Gaza is going to project weakness in a part of the world, where Might is Right. There isn't a diplomatic solution where Israel doesn't come out looking like the weak, losing party.YouBet said:
Of note, I just got off a client call where former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and former Head of MI6 Alex Younger both are of the opinion that Israel is not going to invade Gaza as they say they are. Global PR, long-term relations, and the catastrophic outcome to their own military will keep them from doing it.
What you will see is continued precision attacks against Hamas leadership while they figure out a diplomatic solution to sideline Hamas.
I agree with them at this point.
Israel/Hamas going at it
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These state sponsored terrorist groups are like roaches. It takes war crimes to truely eradicate them. No civilized nation is willing to do what's necessary to eliminate them. So we just keep killing leaders and and then wait for the next mass terrorist attack.
CDUB98 said:I'm guessing a long war of attrition in which Israel is not willing to sacrifice as much as Hamas.$240 Worth of Pudding said:YouBet said:
Of note, I just got off a client call where former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and former Head of MI6 Alex Younger both are of the opinion that Israel is not going to invade Gaza as they say they are. Global PR, long-term relations, and the catastrophic outcome to their own military will keep them from doing it.
What you will see is continued precision attacks against Hamas leadership while they figure out a diplomatic solution to sideline Hamas.
I agree with them at this point.
Catastrophic outcome to their own military?
Boy, I'd certainly like to have heard an exposition on that argument.
This. Expectation is thousands of deaths on Israel's side due to the nature of the operation. And that they simply can't take losses like that and sustain what is expected to take several months if not years.
deddog said:I understand this is expert opinion, but I just don't see that happening. Not going into Gaza is going to project weakness in a part of the world, where Might is Right. There isn't a diplomatic solution where Israel doesn't come out looking like the weak, losing party.YouBet said:
Of note, I just got off a client call where former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and former Head of MI6 Alex Younger both are of the opinion that Israel is not going to invade Gaza as they say they are. Global PR, long-term relations, and the catastrophic outcome to their own military will keep them from doing it.
What you will see is continued precision attacks against Hamas leadership while they figure out a diplomatic solution to sideline Hamas.
I agree with them at this point.
Dunno. But their guess is that they will look for a more sustainable strategy to overturn Hamas that doesn't involve the IDF in a massive ground operation. That certainly seems to be the prevailing winds on this deal.
Maybe something like Macrons idea that someone posted above as part of a larger effort to sideline Hamas.
YouBet said:
Of note, I just got off a client call where former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and former Head of MI6 Alex Younger both are of the opinion that Israel is not going to invade Gaza as they say they are. Global PR, long-term relations, and the catastrophic outcome to their own military will keep them from doing it.
What you will see is continued precision attacks against Hamas leadership while they figure out a diplomatic solution to sideline Hamas.
I agree with them at this point.
This has been my expectation all along.
I suspect they don't see a permanent military solution either. The only exception would be to kill every Muslim within 500 miles and despite the inevitable "Do it!" replies here that's not going to happen. More headhunting strikes, hostage negotiations, and assassination teams is what I'd expect.deddog said:I understand this is expert opinion, but I just don't see that happening. Not going into Gaza is going to project weakness in a part of the world, where Might is Right. There isn't a diplomatic solution where Israel doesn't come out looking like the weak, losing party.YouBet said:
Of note, I just got off a client call where former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and former Head of MI6 Alex Younger both are of the opinion that Israel is not going to invade Gaza as they say they are. Global PR, long-term relations, and the catastrophic outcome to their own military will keep them from doing it.
What you will see is continued precision attacks against Hamas leadership while they figure out a diplomatic solution to sideline Hamas.
I agree with them at this point.
I tried to not get into any direct arguments and I know I'm not alone, but the "Israel doesn't care what anybody thinks, they're going to wreck shop and dare the rest of the middle east to stop them" crowd is not living in the real world.
I still don't think it's impossible that they'll invade, and the whole context could change at any moment depending on events, but I've always thought a rapid de-escalation was the most likely outcome.
Live stream of Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Gaza. Sirens going off but nothing in the sky.
If Israel doesn't do more than airstrikes, they might as well start preparing now for the next one.
I think they realize that that's what they have to do regardless. As long as they're there they'll have to expect more. I'm sure they'll continue to kill Hamas people with bombs and assassinations but I'd imagine (because I obviously don't claim to know) that their analysis of a large-scale land invasion suggests it will cost more than it's worth and likely have no end and will possibly only make things worse.BBRex said:
If Israel doesn't do more than airstrikes, they might as well start preparing now for the next one.
This.BBRex said:
If Israel doesn't do more than airstrikes, they might as well start preparing now for the next one.
There is only one best case scenario - IDF goes into Gaza and annihilates Hamas.
The chances of that are not good, because there is no good way to take out terrorists holding hostages, in tunnels deep underground where you have no air support - Hamas would have negated Israel's biggest advantage.
There is a scenario where all Israel does is weeks of air strikes, but USGov opinion will shift (I guarantee this) the longer the air strikes take place without ground troops going in.There are very few wars (US Serbia is the only one i can think of) where solely air support has resulted in "victory".
Every other scenario for Israel is a bad one.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudi-arabia-intercepted-houthi-missile-headed-toward-israel-report/
Saudi Arabia intercepted one of the Houthi missles last week
Saudi Arabia intercepted one of the Houthi missles last week
Hamas has prepared for this moment for many years. I don't envy the job ahead for the IDF.
samurai_science said:Education does not equal intelligence or wisdom.DTP02 said:TexasAggie_02 said:They don't send their best and brightest to do the dirty work.aezmvp said:
It never ceases to amaze how easy it is to interrogate some of these guys.
And they have a whole lot of "not the best and brightest" to choose from. The lack of general intelligence, and especially the lack of education, is one of the primary reasons Gaza is a failed "state" which relies on a unifying hatred and scapegoating of Jews to keep the population in line.
Why do you think I listed intelligence and education separately? They have a double-barreled issue which both limits their opportunities for success and makes them easily manipulated.
Ruh Roh… the Mulas will be el pistola at the rich Arab Shieks !The Fall Guy said:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudi-arabia-intercepted-houthi-missile-headed-toward-israel-report/
Saudi Arabia intercepted one of the Houthi missles last week
FIFYPJYoung said:HamasIran has prepared for this moment for many years. I don't envy the job ahead for the IDF.
The Fall Guy said:
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769997
Syria hits Golan Heights
Time to break out the mine field maps.
Those born in the 70's and 80s your time has come. This is what windows 95 was all about. Mindless hours playing mine sweeper.P.H. Dexippus said:The Fall Guy said:
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769997
Syria hits Golan Heights
Time to break out the mine field maps.
P.H. Dexippus said:The Fall Guy said:
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769997
Syria hits Golan Heights
Time to break out the mine field maps.
From when I was at the Golan Heights.
The Fall Guy said:
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770008
Iran backed Militias threaten Kuwait and UAE.
Hmmm, seems like a dumb idea to threaten other Muslim countries.
CDUB98
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https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770020
Multiple US soldiers injured in last weeks drone attacks on US bases in the region.
Multiple US soldiers injured in last weeks drone attacks on US bases in the region.
At least those deployed there will finally have something to do.
[If you want to comment on how Iran is impacting the Israeli/Hamas conflict, that's germane to the thread and fair game. If you want to explore further if this is how WW3 starts, that gets into a different conversation from the update nature of this thread. Feel free to start that thread if you wish -- Staff]
as previously mentioned, I would have already killed them all no matter the civilian collateral damage
CDUB98 said:The Fall Guy said:
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770008
Iran backed Militias threaten Kuwait and UAE.
Hmmm, seems like a dumb idea to threaten other Muslim countries.
There is no such thing as Muslim in the Islamic world. There's pretty much Shia and Sunni.
That's what is at play here.
Shia vs Sunni
Hamas took hostages for a reason. We are seeing the reason play out in the form of a delayed Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. It seems like a ground invasion results in the death of the hostages at the hand of their captors.
They basically didn't just want Palestinian body shields, they wanted Israeli ones, too.Houston Lee said:
Hamas took hostages for a reason. We are seeing the reason play out in the form of a delayed Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. It seems like a ground invasion results in the death of the hostages at the hand of their captors.
The former are to gain bad press for Israel and hopefully prevent some of the retribution from occurring. The latter is in case the former fails.
Precision demolition compliments of IAF.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/mE3wBIfUNw
Edit. Comments state this may be 2021 footage. Either way the original statement above is still correct.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/mE3wBIfUNw
Edit. Comments state this may be 2021 footage. Either way the original statement above is still correct.
That is incredible. In the comments some of the commenters claim the bombing is from 2021.JFABNRGR said:
Precision demolition compliments of IAF.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/mE3wBIfUNw
San Angelo LIVE!
https://sanangelolive.com/
https://sanangelolive.com/
They are going to go in. There is a balance at play as we are bringing in air defenses across the region (Qatar, UAE, etc) and as well dealing with how to apportion key munitions.deddog said:I understand this is expert opinion, but I just don't see that happening. Not going into Gaza is going to project weakness in a part of the world, where Might is Right. There isn't a diplomatic solution where Israel doesn't come out looking like the weak, losing party.YouBet said:
Of note, I just got off a client call where former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and former Head of MI6 Alex Younger both are of the opinion that Israel is not going to invade Gaza as they say they are. Global PR, long-term relations, and the catastrophic outcome to their own military will keep them from doing it.
What you will see is continued precision attacks against Hamas leadership while they figure out a diplomatic solution to sideline Hamas.
I agree with them at this point.
If the ground operation in Gaza is to last 3 months, the objectives will be laid out I'd expect in the initial two weeks to secure the 'northern' part past the river.Quote:
But getting backone key aspect of the upcoming potential Israel conflagration is that even Israeli commanders have openly stated the Gaza operation is slated for up to 3 months. Meaning, that is the minimal time scale they themselves acknowledge the major operation will take. Realistically of course it can take far more than that and turn into an indefinite embroilment, as many are now suspecting.
But even if it were to hypothetically last those 3 months, that already creates a catastrophic situation for Ukraine given that all allied shells will be going to Israel for that time period and likely even afterwards to replenish their stocks.One can imagine that if the Israeli war gets bogged down into next year, then Ukraine will be in a disastrous situation this winter and may face total collapse by early next year.Quote:
The spring counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a big question. In a month, the entire Ukrainian army may be covered by a shell famine, since even Germany will now send all its 155-mm shells to Israel.
Most of the 155-mm shells from the United States and other high-precision weapons will also go there: SAM missiles, Excalibur shells. Ukraine does not produce its own projectiles and is completely dependent on external supplies.
Problems are already being reported:It stands to reason this may be one of the chief motivations behind the U.S.'s desperate exhortations toward Israel to not go through with the warbecause U.S. knows they can't sustain both fronts and would face total loss in Ukraine.Quote:
The Ukrainian channel "Resident" writes about the bullet famine of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
"Our source in the OP confirmed Western media information that Zelensky was informed about the reduction in ammunition supplies and even raised the issue at the headquarters. For now, the decision has been made to save the shells and use them timely, in more exposed positions, which is why the counteroffensive on the flanks of Bakhmut and in the Zaporozhye direction."
According to U.S. Defense Officials, the Army is currently Scrambling to Deploy at least 12 Air Defense Systems to the multiple Countries across the Middle East before the Israeli Invasion of the Gaza Strip is set to soon begin; a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)… pic.twitter.com/2718xpriDV
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 24, 2023
If the UNRWA is becoming inactive, then the 'delay' in beginning this is entirely worth the tactical pause/buildup: they are explicit/direct allies in support of Hamas.
IDF roasts UN 🇺🇳 live on X 🤣 pic.twitter.com/MHjHfKEPMB
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) October 24, 2023
Not sure if this was posted but is worth a click/read:
Israel vs. a Death Cult
— Victor Davis Hanson (@VDHanson) October 24, 2023
Here are three critical considerations that must be understood about the current Israel-Hamas conflict. It is a sort of half-war. It consists of a military trying to defeat an organized clique of passive-aggressive, media-obsessed tribal murderers.
It is…
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