So is inflation a necessary evil or "needed" for a country like ours with world currency because our leaders are worried too many dollars May flow back into the US and we need to be able to spend or use them? Thus increase prices and we can now "spend" the dollars flowing back into the US? Just curious why inflation is put on the people other than cutting back on what people can afford ? I may be way off on this I'm just curious if there are other "reasons" someone or a country would want inflation?

hph6203 said:

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Food and energy is included in the figure. It is only removed on the "core" rate. The 4.2% expectation is inclusive of food and energy.

https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/quick-guide-some-popular-bea-price-indexes

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The 4.2% is the core rate. It does not include food and energy. Last month was 4.1%.

Lake08 said:

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heavens11 said:

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I was shocked at the prices for groceries this week. I know prices have been increasing significantly but man food prices have absolutely skyrocketed

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Your just NOW noticing food prices?? Wow

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Insufferable sometimes. I haven't been living under a rock. I have noticed them before NOW. Just observing how dramatic the cumulative increases are.

Enjoy your internet scoreboard points I guess

You guys keep voting for politicians with inflationary fiscal policies and then complain about it when it hits your pocketbook instead of your brokerage account and home values

Inflation depends on where you live and what you buy. The one-size-fits-all national inflation rates do not take into account demographics and geographics nor are they based on realistic or reliable measures. The name Inflation Reduction Act is a lie in labeling; it was when passed and pols knew it. Powell all but said last week that more interest rate hikes are necessary. Not a Powell fan!

Logos Stick said:

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The rate is being reported this week. They are expecting the inflation rate to rise to 4.2%.

They are also saying Powell is most likely done with rate increases. So it seems they are content with where it's at.

This is bull***** You have to get a 4% raise just to stay even. We're all getting poorer!

Food and energy isn't included in that.

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It's ok because it's only transitory right? (almost 3 years of it and still going up!)

I have a feeling they will try to declare this the new normal.

ChemAg15 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Quote:

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Food and energy isn't included in that.

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I'll never understand that. If there are two day to day "commodities" that are pounding everyday Americans, here they are. It sure seems food prices are rising faster than their "4%", and energy prices snowball into everything.

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They strip out food and gas because those prices are more volatile than others month to month. On a monthly basis it's easier to tell what direction and how fast inflation is going if you pull out food and fuel. Still sucks for the consumer who has to listen to core inflation statistics like they should be excited about 4% inflation not counting food and gas.

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Uhhh, I can see gas being somewhat inconsistent, but I have yet to go to the grocery store my entire life and think "wow, I got off really cheap this week". Please let me know where these volatile food costs are, I'll spend some gas cost to get there.

The key word is VOLATILE. Food prices are closly related to fuel prices for obvious reasons. I bet you buy more than food at the grocery store.

Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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Food and energy is included in the figure. It is only removed on the "core" rate. The 4.2% expectation is inclusive of food and energy.

https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/quick-guide-some-popular-bea-price-indexes

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The 4.2% is the core rate. It does not include food and energy. Last month was 4.1%.

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Non-Core was 2.97%.

Core inflation, i.e. inflation without food/energy has been higher than base inflation for about 3 months. So when you make the implication they use core to hide that food prices are rapidly rising, you're just wrong.

The primary driver of the inflation over the last year has been shelter, because the market has been slow to react to higher interest rates and the data these estimates use is slow to pick up on prices in shelter.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change

Thanks Randolph, I think we are just talking past each other. I do only buy food at the grocery store and it seems pretty consistent on a gradual increase of prices across the board, I'm not arguing raw goods pricing because I'm not in that market.

For the middle class it's way more than 4%

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Printing $11 Trillion over a virus with a 0.3% IFR will do that to ya.

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Lets be honest, it was even lower (for most ages):

Logos Stick said:

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The rate is being reported this week. They are expecting the inflation rate to rise to 4.2%.

They are also saying Powell is most likely done with rate increases. So it seems they are content with where it's at.

This is bull***** You have to get a 4% raise just to stay even. We're all getting poorer!

Food and energy isn't included in that.

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We're all going to get poorer regardless. Rate increases will tamp down inflation but depress the economy. If we don't increase rates inflation will persist and our buying power will be reduced. There's no painless way to get out of this.

In other words, it's a huge s**t sandwich, and we're all gonna have to take a bite. And no, Ann Margaret is not coming either.

DallasAg 94 said:

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My company announced there will be no Pay Increase this year and we'll like it, because that means they won't lay off more people after the 10% they laid off 6 months ago.

So, I'll just absorb the 4-8% Inflation that is really probably 10% compounded for the 2nd year of the Biden Regime.

Swimming upstream. I'm not sure how the rest of you afford this. We cut our family trip to Europe.

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We keep contractors on hand just in case we have layoffs.

Yeah, that is not a good economy. The vast majority of American's raises are not keeping up with inlfation. The vast majority of your services or goods have decreased in quality, yet you still pay a higher percentage for them. Our dollar devalues by the day.

The fact that this administration can still get away with gaslighting Bidenomics as working and some believe it is astonishing. Just shows how far gone and how brainwashed many liberals are.

If the numbers come out bad are they going to indict Trump for staring the Maui fires?

hph6203 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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Food and energy is included in the figure. It is only removed on the "core" rate. The 4.2% expectation is inclusive of food and energy.

https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/quick-guide-some-popular-bea-price-indexes

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The 4.2% is the core rate. It does not include food and energy. Last month was 4.1%.

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Non-Core was 2.97%.

Core inflation, i.e. inflation without food/energy has been higher than base inflation for about 3 months. So when you make the implication they use core to hide that food prices are rapidly rising, you're just wrong.

The primary driver of the inflation over the last year has been shelter, because the market has been slow to react to higher interest rates and the data these estimates use is slow to pick up on prices in shelter.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change

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Lol, you said the 4.2% included food and energy. I quoted you. Wrong!!!

I did not imply anything. I simply stated that core does not include those items.

I'm not wrong about anything.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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If the numbers come out bad are they going to indict Trump for staring the Maui fires?

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Don't give them any ideas.

The party that brought you high inflation then passed a bill to further inflation and called in a bill that reduces inflation is now going to work with MSM< paid off economists and their daily pressers to convince 81 million ballots that only they can solve inflation.

Please link who is saying inflation will be 4%+. And then understand that they are wrong.

Yeah, I screwed that up. Forgot you were highlighting core inflation in an attempt to show that inflation is still a problem when it's actually pretty much over. What's the point of complaining about inflation and then emphasizing it excludes food and energy other than to imply that food and energy would increase the inflation rate? It sure steered the conversation of the thread towards food prices, leaving basically anyone that doesn't pay attention with the impression that the actual rate is higher than what it really is.

You're advocating for rate hikes in an environment where the MoM inflation rate is lower than the target rate, which would make you wrong about that. The impact of another .25% rate hike would be minimal at best, and in reality would likely hurt your stock portfolio far more than it would cause any meaningful reduction in the rate of price increases.

Wonder if any present day scholars in HS get a lesson in "crowding out effect"? Where the govt spends too much, and believe it or not, money is finite, So there is less for us and drives up prices? The government crowds out our money. That's not too hard to preach to kids. But alas, I think they just think govt has answer and money for everything, and the spigot spewing will always last.

We've gone from buy two teas to buy half a tea.

Can just measure it how it was measured in 1980? That would be real transparency

fullback44 said:

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So is inflation a necessary evil or "needed" for a country like ours with world currency because our leaders are worried too many dollars May flow back into the US and we need to be able to spend or use them? Thus increase prices and we can now "spend" the dollars flowing back into the US? Just curious why inflation is put on the people other than cutting back on what people can afford ? I may be way off on this I'm just curious if there are other "reasons" someone or a country would want inflation?

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I believe the fed likes inflation since they can pay old debt with inflated dollars, particularly if they can take new debt at low interest. So the best scenario for the fed is inflation plus low interest. That, of course, is the worst scenario for wage-earning middle-class Americans since wages don't keep pace with inflation and savings earn nothing. Americans are burning through their savings leaving no rainy day cash reserve.

At a macro level, being a reserve currency is probably the main thing that has prevented runaway inflation. If foreign governments slow or stop their investment in US dollars inflation could spike very quickly.

Completely incorrect. You are now advocating that we look at non core as the indicator on monetary policy. Wrong. The whole reason for core is to eliminate volatility, which is considered a true indicator.

The core rate has ticked back up. The target for the core rate is always 2 or lower. We're nowhere close to that rate and are now moving up.

itsyourboypookie said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The rate is being reported this week. They are expecting the inflation rate to rise to 4.2%.

They are also saying Powell is most likely done with rate increases. So it seems they are content with where it's at.

This is bull***** You have to get a 4% raise just to stay even. We're all getting poorer!

Food and energy isn't included in that.

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Invest in cash flowing real estate. Rise with inflation

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"Hey struggling working and middle class people, just have millions of dollars and you'll have investment opportunities to beat out inflation."

That's up there with Pete BootyJudge's "just buy a Tesla".

DallasAg 94 said:

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My company announced there will be no Pay Increase this year and we'll like it, because that means they won't lay off more people after the 10% they laid off 6 months ago.

So, I'll just absorb the 4-8% Inflation that is really probably 10% compounded for the 2nd year of the Biden Regime.

Swimming upstream. I'm not sure how the rest of you afford this. We cut our family trip to Europe.

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Ditto. But Biden and his MSM will tell you Bidenomics has worked and we're all better off!

Note that this is a topic that won't get airplay because they want people focused on Trump, or climate change, or trans rights, or some other issue that really doesn't affect daily life or is a hoax altogether.. Meanwhile, we're getting less and less for our dollar each month, real income has declined and is declining, the border is a sieve, crime is up and violent criminals being turned loose on the population.

I'm not advocating for anything in terms of what metric to look at (core vs base). I'm saying it's more valuable to look at the MoM inflation rates rather than the annualized rates, because the annualized rates give the impression that inflation is durably a problem going forward when the vast majority of inflation in the report is from 6-12 months ago, and for the last 6 months base inflation has been at target and core inflation is at or below target on the last report and anticipated to be at or below target on the next report. The reason inflation is as high as it is is because shelter takes longer to reflect in the data, because the transaction rate is lower.

The core rate has ticked back up, because the core rate in July 2022 was .1% and that data is dropping from the report and is being replaced by July 2023. A .1% rise in inflation from the June report implies that prices rose .2% (target) for July.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-mom

SF Fed released a report that states they anticipate that shelter inflation will continue to fall and that it could even go negative next year. The source of the majority of inflation is dying due to the rate hikes that were already done.

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/august/where-is-shelter-inflation-headed/

It does not make sense to raise rates right now.

I paid $4.75/gallon for gasoline today.

Fightin_Aggie said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The rate is being reported this week. They are expecting the inflation rate to rise to 4.2%.

They are also saying Powell is most likely done with rate increases. So it seems they are content with where it's at.

This is bull***** You have to get a 4% raise just to stay even. We're all getting poorer!

Food and energy isn't included in that.

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Politicians love inflation.

They want to spend but can't pass new taxes answer - Print Money
Printed money increases cost, people ask for raises want more money
Incomes increase, income taxes increase - Politicians spend more money

Until we kick out the corrupt politicians nothing changes.

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Many on this board seem to want the corrupt politicians to stay in power.

All this argument over data is academic. What I feel every time I have to buy gas, groceries, whatever I cringe. Have you gone out to eat lately? Insane. Regardless of the rate of inflation, prices of everything are painful.

What's worse is how much it hurts to send out proposals for new work. I can't believe how much it costs to design and build anything today, and I realize that all that cost goes back into the cost of the products and services those people have to charge. The sad thing is, most of my work these days comes from two sectors, heavy industrial that has deep pockets and public works because they can just burden the taxpayer.

I am hearing they are likely raising rates.