FireAg said:
aggie93 said:
BTW, if you think it is a coincidence that Trump is doing minimal big rallies and is using Hannity for stuff like he did you aren't paying attention. Trump's campaign is running low on cash and they aren't getting big money donors. They are bragging about getting the small money folks and that's fine but Trump needs a LOT more cash. He's running his campaign on the cheap hoping for more free media because he is low on cash. Those rallies are really expensive but if he goes on Hannity then Fox picks up most if not the whole bill. Funny thing is he will then go on about how "Fox hates me!"
Dude knows how to grift, gotta respect the game.
And however you and your brethren wanna label it, Trump is still leading bigly in the polls…so either that doesn't matter and you should stop worrying about what Trump is or isn't doing, or the polls actually do point to a major problem, and DeSantis is in trouble if he doesn't make a change…
It can't be both…y'all need to pick one…
I'll keep that in mind for our next super secret DeSantis Club meeting! lol
I speak for myself and have for more than 25 years on this site. I call it like I see it based on analysis of the race from multiple sources and listening to the candidates and their strategists. Talking heads are pretty worthless for the most part, most are just trying to get views or clicks and are looking at things at a surface level. I have consistently said polls are pretty meaningless at this point and said it to you many times. They have some value but it's more about the deeper trends and underlying current than the national numbers. Anyone that knows anything about how a Primary season goes knows that everything changes after Iowa and then it shifts again after each of the early Primaries. DeSantis must do well in Iowa but he is doing everything he should do right now to make that happen, his ground game is tremendous and while he doesn't have a formal endorsement for other reasons he clearly has Reynolds and Earnst deep in his pocket as well as some of the most influential people in the State. Then NH, SC, and NV all have very different tests.
The most consistent thing that you see though, and this is of course common for a Party out of power, is that people want to win and will vote for the winner. As we get closer the factor of who is most likely to win becomes much more important. As of now polling favors Trump on that, people in the GOP see him as more likely to win. Anyone with a fraction of political analysis knows though that DeSantis has much better fundamentals than Trump against either Biden or Newsom though. DeSantis is going to hit on that day after day and try to chip away at Trump.
I have no idea if it will work or who will win and anyone who says they do is either hopecasting or naive. This race is going to continue to shift but it is unlikely to have major moves until late in the Fall at the earliest. If it does that is very, very bad for Trump. Why? Trump is at a money disadvantage and his biggest strength is a sense of inevitability. If DeSantis can fracture that Trump will lose and it could happen much faster than people think. Of course on the other side DeSantis has a very small margin for error and Trump may be reckless and undisciplined but he is smart and he knows how to play the game. DeSantis can't afford many significant mistakes. Fortunately he hasn't really made any (meaning a mistake that he can't recover from). He's kept it to policy and not personal with Trump. He hasn't lost his temper. He hasn't had a Rick Perry moment or a Howard Dean. He's being careful and disciplined and waiting for his opportunity. Trump is doing the opposite, he's going big early and trying to crush DeSantis and convince people the race is over before it starts.
From a pure political science perspective this is fascinating gamesmanship, two completely different strategies and campaigns from two very talented politicians that have so much in common policy wise but are completely opposite style wise. From a personal perspective it scares the hell out of me because I don't see any way Trump can win the General and I could see him losing very badly and dragging the GOP down with him with dire consequences for the country.
I try to keep the emotions out of the analysis as much as I can but I'm human too, it will be something to watch for sure. That said the "DeSantis must do something NOW!" stuff just gets old and makes me shake my head, it's just not how this thing works.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan