Housing Market being propped up?

9,707 Views | 99 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Predmid
Waiting on a Natty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I feel for your generation. It is extremely hard for y'all to get into a first house. And then you have to deal with property taxes that keep going up and up. When I bought my first house in 1983 my interest rate was 12 to 13%. And that was after buying the rate down by paying points. I knew property taxes existed but they were an afterthought. But for new home buyers now property taxes can be a deal killer.

For we Baby Boomers, the value of our homes is a great way to cost into retirement.
Tex117
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Kozmozag said:

People get used to higher rates, it's all perspective, I bought my 1st house at 11.5%.. thought I did great at the time....lol
Yeah...did prices reflect that higher interest rate? Yeah...probably.

So...not very applicable now. Old dude.
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tex117 said:

Kozmozag said:

People get used to higher rates, it's all perspective, I bought my 1st house at 11.5%.. thought I did great at the time....lol
Yeah...did prices reflect that higher interest rate? Yeah...probably.

So...not very applicable now. Old dude.


Medaggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Texas property tax is the real killer.

A decent sized home or investment property in a major city is 500K looking at a 15K tax bill a year which equates to 2-3 months of work for many or 5-6 months of rent.

Taxes is what makes homes unaffordable. Even when you pay off your home, you are still beholden.
I Am A Critic
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

This is sea isle on Galveston island. Canary in the coal mine.



Current listings, not Zillow bs.

https://s.hartech.io/7bf0f63979F8530
Username checks out.
12thMan86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
**** will get real if unemployment gets up to 5%
aggiehawg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
12thMan86 said:

**** will get real if unemployment gets up to 5%
No, it will not. Ever heard of the Great Depression?
I Am A Critic
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

YouBet said:

Damn. Is that every house in there?


Yeah it's a lot. Seems to me people are trying to ditch the vacation home while prices are up.


Those are not actual listings.
Username checks out.
12thMan86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
aggiehawg said:

12thMan86 said:

**** will get real if unemployment gets up to 5%
No, it will not. Ever heard of the Great Depression?


That's what I mean. Won't be good at all!
DrEvazanPhD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

YouBet said:

Damn. Is that every house in there?


Yeah it's a lot. Seems to me people are trying to ditch the vacation home while prices are up.


How are prices looking compared to 2019?
DrEvazanPhD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I Am A Critic said:

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

This is sea isle on Galveston island. Canary in the coal mine.



Current listings, not Zillow bs.

https://s.hartech.io/7bf0f63979F8530



You had a filter that capped at 350. Try removing that.
YouBet
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DrEvazanPhD said:

I Am A Critic said:

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

This is sea isle on Galveston island. Canary in the coal mine.



Current listings, not Zillow bs.

https://s.hartech.io/7bf0f63979F8530



You had a filter that capped at 350. Try removing that.
Trash website. The label says Min 350k but if you click on it is says 350k is the Price Max.

I ran it again with his filter and now there are 29 homes vs 5.

Boozer92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The thing to watch now is new home construction. I know several builders. They are all seeing custom home orders wind down. Other large builders are walking away from earnest money because they can't build new neighborhoods right now. The market will continue too adjust to supply and demand. It will also adjust to people making student loan repayments for the first time in 3 years.

I may be crazy here but soon may be a great time to build a new forever home when prices depress but before interest rates drop. Just have to pay a premium on interest until you can refi. Right now is terrible while both are high
TheBonifaceOption
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DX2011 said:

DrEvazanPhD said:

In places like Texas, it's inventory. If you paid 700k for a home that was 350k in 2019, and you locked in at 3%, you're not moving. And a ton of people did, or refinanced, at those rates. Those who bought can't afford to sell.


And people like me who have made equity but refinanced in 2021 (like you mentioned) but probably want to move are not selling. Current rents compared to our mortgage are crazy and someone else more than paying an 2% mortgage just makes too much sense.

Us + the people happy with what they are paying for what they have + the people that can't/don't want to sell and buy something else with todays interest rates + new migrants (both foreign and domestic) are keeping inventory down and rents high despite lower sales volumes.

I think it does crash at some point, just don't know what the trigger will be to pull us out of the current cycle.
I think I know what will trigger it.

Currently commercial multifamily are the only aspect of RE that is getting built. A ton of investors saw MF as the gold rush so it got fast tracked, and fewer SFHs were built.

BUT the problem is many of these new builds only have like 30-40% occupancy. They are failing to fill these properties. They are offering 3-4 months free rent on 1 year leases just to have projected revenue on the books. In 2024 these will start to crash, and the cost of these rentals will move from $2400/m average to maybe 60%. When that happens it will be more financially wise to rent than buy inflated SFHs. This will result in difficulty selling SFHs at that high price tag. And it's gonna cause sellers to spiral.
Tom Kazansky 2012
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I Am A Critic said:

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

This is sea isle on Galveston island. Canary in the coal mine.



Current listings, not Zillow bs.

https://s.hartech.io/7bf0f63979F8530





You had a bunch of perimeters set…. It's the same.
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm not understanding. What are we looking at there? Everyone in that area attempting to sell their beach House in west beach Galveston?

Pretend I'm 5.
Tom Kazansky 2012
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Logos Stick said:

I'm not understanding. What are we looking at there? Everyone in that area attempting to sell their beach House in west beach Galveston?

Pretend I'm 5.


Yes. Tons of vacation homes going up for sale and seemingly not being sold.
DrEvazanPhD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

Logos Stick said:

I'm not understanding. What are we looking at there? Everyone in that area attempting to sell their beach House in west beach Galveston?

Pretend I'm 5.


Yes. Tons of vacation homes going up for sale and seemingly not being sold.


I believe it. You could get a nice home in sea isle a few years ago for 200k. Now that want 600 for that same house, at pushing 8% rates
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

Logos Stick said:

I'm not understanding. What are we looking at there? Everyone in that area attempting to sell their beach House in west beach Galveston?

Pretend I'm 5.


Yes. Tons of vacation homes going up for sale and seemingly not being sold.


Ok, bear with me. Is that an unusual number of homes on the market?
Tom Kazansky 2012
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Logos Stick said:

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

Logos Stick said:

I'm not understanding. What are we looking at there? Everyone in that area attempting to sell their beach House in west beach Galveston?

Pretend I'm 5.


Yes. Tons of vacation homes going up for sale and seemingly not being sold.


Ok, bear with me. Is that an unusual number of homes on the market?


Compared to when we were looking a few years ago, yes.
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DrEvazanPhD said:

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

Logos Stick said:

I'm not understanding. What are we looking at there? Everyone in that area attempting to sell their beach House in west beach Galveston?

Pretend I'm 5.


Yes. Tons of vacation homes going up for sale and seemingly not being sold.


I believe it. You could get a nice home in sea isle a few years ago for 200k. Now that want 600 for that same house, at pushing 8% rates


Ah, ok. That's an extreme markup.
TheBonifaceOption
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Folks jumping into VRBO/airbnb buying beachfront houses and not realizing how much work is involved or how vacation travel can be wiped out with no disposable income.
Stat Monitor Repairman
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And how the salt air destroys everything it touches.
DrEvazanPhD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TheBonifaceOption said:

Folks jumping into VRBO/airbnb buying beachfront houses and not realizing how much work is involved or how vacation travel can be wiped out with no disposable income.


I think the galveston STR rental market got way too big for its britches in 20 and 21. Folks who bought after that we're counting on that income to afford their homes
Stat Monitor Repairman
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Anybody know the status of fish village in Galveston?

I'm talkin about the neighborhood off ferry road where every street is a different fish.

Did people buy up those houses for rentals? What are those houses worth now?

Whats the status of that neighborhood?
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
MaxPower said:

I hope you're wrong. I have a second home I need to sell next summer.
rates won't be coming down for quite some time, if anything the Fed is going to do at least one more increase of 25 basis points in the next few months
AndesAg92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
YouBet said:

Guess I'm just perplexed at all the talk about white hot markets in Texas or otherwise. No one is buying or selling a damn thing in my North Dallas hood which should be considered white hot. We have one story houses on the market for $1.5M that no one is sniffing and then the next level of home is $2M+ which are mostly spec homes at this point.

If you have a house below $1M it's sitting and not selling unless it's low enough (<$700K) to gut and flip.


What type of neighborhood? (Ie well established/zoned to good to great public schools, 80s-90s vintage suburb homebuilder type, big MPC, etc?)

What I'm seeing in Houston is what a lot of posters have alluded to earlier. Low inventory due to IR hikes and pricing, the "not selling unless I have to or am upgrading etc". Low inventory has made highly sought after locations where there is a finite supply of homes zoned to the attractive schools sell like hot cakes.

Just bought our house in May. There were prob 30+ families at the open house. We lost out originally and when it came back around we had to win in a best and final.

On the sale side, we had 2 full price offers the afternoon of the open house.

On the commercial side- I'm seeing homebuilders stay extremely active. Privately capitalized MF developers are still getting deals done if they have strong banking relationships, industrial is continuing its unprecedented run.

I'm not saying everything is great. But from my perspective (Houston and in CRE). The market is showing Houston resilience and how much we have changed since the oil bust days. Strange market for sure but people are still finding ways to get things done.

Similar to commercial, residential is "hot" but for different reasons than when IR were 3%. Different playing field now, my realtor who went to HS with me is crushing it even with sales volume down.
AndesAg92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
chicken joe said:

Im not an expert, but many business park around here have been having difficulties filling their buildings with tenants. I was down in austin two weekends ago and its even worse down there. I think commercial real estate is in big trouble with work from home and the general laziness of the woke crowd.


Discussing CRE as a whole or one market is "general laziness" lol. I understand your points but there is just so many segments of CRE that aren't all tied together. Work from home and the evolution of the workplace environment has certainly changed and heavily effected the office CRE market. It has changed it forever. But that hasn't effected my side of CRE in absolute terms. Bunch of debt on crappy suburban office deals is about to come due so I'm targeting some that have a good size lot to sell for redevelopment plays etc, so I guess it's effecting my biz/gameplan but not my bottom line or income stream.

Also- to your industrial thoughts. I've certainly seen things cooling down but that is cooling down from historic times in that market. If this is "bad" my buddies on that side will be laughing on the way to the bank for quite some time.

This and my previous post sound like I'm a sunshine pumper but I am not at all. When the next major downturn happens (like 08-09 type), CRE will certainly feel it across the board but from my understanding point of view houston has shown its economic diversity and resiliency so far in whatever you want to call this current oddity in the economy and will be much better off than most parts of the country if things start to get really bad. I think this pull back/cool off was very needed and hoping we can push through this without too much blood in the water.

With all that said- buncha syndicator types with floating rate debt on MF are about to absolutely lose their shirts. I'm not sure when the other shoe will drop but I'll predict a huge wave to people taking it on the chin and giving the keys to servicers by the end of the year. Lots of people under water and haven't taken their medicine yet.
YouBet
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AndesAg92 said:

YouBet said:

Guess I'm just perplexed at all the talk about white hot markets in Texas or otherwise. No one is buying or selling a damn thing in my North Dallas hood which should be considered white hot. We have one story houses on the market for $1.5M that no one is sniffing and then the next level of home is $2M+ which are mostly spec homes at this point.

If you have a house below $1M it's sitting and not selling unless it's low enough (<$700K) to gut and flip.


What type of neighborhood? (Ie well established/zoned to good to great public schools, 80s-90s vintage suburb homebuilder type, big MPC, etc?)

What I'm seeing in Houston is what a lot of posters have alluded to earlier. Low inventory due to IR hikes and pricing, the "not selling unless I have to or am upgrading etc". Low inventory has made highly sought after locations where there is a finite supply of homes zoned to the attractive schools sell like hot cakes.

Just bought our house in May. There were prob 30+ families at the open house. We lost out originally and when it came back around we had to win in a best and final.

On the sale side, we had 2 full price offers the afternoon of the open house.

On the commercial side- I'm seeing homebuilders stay extremely active. Privately capitalized MF developers are still getting deals done if they have strong banking relationships, industrial is continuing its unprecedented run.

I'm not saying everything is great. But from my perspective (Houston and in CRE). The market is showing Houston resilience and how much we have changed since the oil bust days. Strange market for sure but people are still finding ways to get things done.

Similar to commercial, residential is "hot" but for different reasons than when IR were 3%. Different playing field now, my realtor who went to HS with me is crushing it even with sales volume down.
Actual North Dallas inside 635. Well established and ground zero for every elite private school in Dallas. Highly sought after. I do think the issue is that we are in a donut hole of a price range that I pointed out earlier. There is no middle ground.

It's either priced to flip or priced for the wealthy. So, it may be we end up just waiting until the flip price rises to a point that we are satisfied with.

Or, the whole market crashes next year and we keep the house.
Predmid
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is my situation. I moved for a job 2 years ago. If I had to do it today, I'm not sure I could afford the house I'm in now unless I got some substantial moving assistance.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.