Logos Stick said:

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Imploding like an OceanGate sub.

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BRUTAL

MouthBQ98 said:

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My employer did a second wave of unannounced surpluses/layoffs last week. The previous round was announced well in advance and they claimed they cut deep that time so more would likely not be necessary in the near future.

The economy is having some serious problems right now and they're hiding it with creative use of popular metrics.

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Interesting.

My previous employer always announced layoffs. My current employer laid off a bunch of folks last year and no announcement.

Guy I knew from another department asked me if we lost anyone. I'm like, huh? He says yeah, we had layoffs last week. I asked my manager and he confirmed.

Is that a new thing? No announcements, just cut folks?

LMCane said:

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Corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That's more than double the same period last year, according to Moody's Investors Service.

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Was the year before half that?
Only measuring metric listed in last year, not a mention of a five year trend.

Last year was tough, but the interest rate increase was just starting and did not have a great impact. Some businesses were still borrowing because fixed rates (assuming they were smart enough to fix) were still affordable.

This year, rates have been high all year and lack of new debt is causing a slow down for many businesses which magnifies the impact of interest expense.

Companies with little to no leverage will have a great opportunity in the second half of this year.

TxTarpon said:

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LMCane said:

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Corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That's more than double the same period last year, according to Moody's Investors Service.

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Was the year before half that?
Only measuring metric listed in last year, not a mention of a five year trend.

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Quote:

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Through June 22, there were 324 bankruptcy filings, not far behind the total of 374 in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. There were more than 230 bankruptcy filings through April of this year, the highest rate for that period since 2010.

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zagman said:

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TxTarpon said:

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LMCane said:

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Corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That's more than double the same period last year, according to Moody's Investors Service.

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Was the year before half that?
Only measuring metric listed in last year, not a mention of a five year trend.

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Quote:

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Through June 22, there were 324 bankruptcy filings, not far behind the total of 374 in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. There were more than 230 bankruptcy filings through April of this year, the highest rate for that period since 2010.

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One would need to analyze this by commercial sector. For instance, damn near every company involved in commercial real estate in places like say… San Francisco, will file or have filed BK in order to walk away from unoccupied spaces or buildings with diminished value.

Overall I think the economy is headed to a steep dip and frankly surprised it has not happened. Fortunately, a dip closer to the election in November 2024 would be way more helpful than one now that sees a recovery before next election. Just my 2 cents.

fka ftc said:

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zagman said:

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TxTarpon said:

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LMCane said:

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Corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That's more than double the same period last year, according to Moody's Investors Service.

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Was the year before half that?
Only measuring metric listed in last year, not a mention of a five year trend.

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Quote:

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Through June 22, there were 324 bankruptcy filings, not far behind the total of 374 in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. There were more than 230 bankruptcy filings through April of this year, the highest rate for that period since 2010.

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One would need to analyze this by commercial sector. For instance, damn near every company involved in commercial real estate in places like say… San Francisco, will file or have filed BK in order to walk away from unoccupied spaces or buildings with diminished value.

Overall I think the economy is headed to a steep dip and frankly surprised it has not happened. Fortunately, a dip closer to the election in November 2024 would be way more helpful than one now that sees a recovery before next election. Just my 2 cents.

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I agree with most of what you are stating but let's look at REALITY.

the reality is that in 2022 the economy "seemed" to be worse with raging inflation continuing to hit new highs every month.

result was Biden and the Democrats did better in the mid-terms than nearly any other time in history.

so based on REALITY, you put up Trump again in 24 and there is no reason to believe that the results from 2022 mid-terms or the 2020 elections would be any different.

The reality is 60% of Americans either totally believe the lies they are told or are influenced to the degree that they believe the lie they are being told in mostly correct and are living their life with no regards for much of anything.

Bankruptcy attorneys on standby for student loan fiasco. Creditors gonna get hammered

Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well...

I read about this, I think it has a lot to do with the interest rates rising. Companies were taking a huge loans while the rates were super low doing previously insane things like stock buybacks and things of that nature with the money. Instead of innovating they just borrowed their ass off

Based on my sector, as a manufacturer and distributor of industrial automation, some industries are ok and others are just awful.

We're more diversified in our customer base than we were years ago, but we are definitely not seeing the growth we did before 21.

Our customers' capital projects we used to think were layups are now drying up like crazy. We had a very prominent company we supplied go from about 2400 units a year to now just over 100. They're laying off big time obviously.

My prognosis is that we are headed for the ****ter and the hangover has just begun. My team is planning accordingly.

oneeyedag said:

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Bankruptcy attorneys on standby for student loan fiasco. Creditors gonna get hammered

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but you can't declare bankruptcy and have your student loans forgiven

(in reality paid for by us American taxpayer suckers)

Ask Karine Jean-Pierre. She will will give you straight answer.

LMCane said:

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oneeyedag said:

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Bankruptcy attorneys on standby for student loan fiasco. Creditors gonna get hammered

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but you can't declare bankruptcy and have your student loans forgiven

(in reality paid for by us American taxpayer suckers)

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Correct but it's another Forbearance during the process

Logos Stick said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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My employer did a second wave of unannounced surpluses/layoffs last week. The previous round was announced well in advance and they claimed they cut deep that time so more would likely not be necessary in the near future.

The economy is having some serious problems right now and they're hiding it with creative use of popular metrics.

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Interesting.

My previous employer always announced layoffs. My current employer laid off a bunch of folks last year and no announcement.

Guy I knew from another department asked me if we lost anyone. I'm like, huh? He says yeah, we had layoffs last week. I asked my manager and he confirmed.

Is that a new thing? No announcements, just cut folks?

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No announcement necessary. If you are an 'at will' employee, everyday can be your last.

Not completely true. There is the WARN act that requires certain notices. Been a while but I believe there are exceptions to WARN.

LMCane said:

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fka ftc said:

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zagman said:

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TxTarpon said:

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LMCane said:

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Corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That's more than double the same period last year, according to Moody's Investors Service.

---

Was the year before half that?
Only measuring metric listed in last year, not a mention of a five year trend.

---

Quote:

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Through June 22, there were 324 bankruptcy filings, not far behind the total of 374 in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. There were more than 230 bankruptcy filings through April of this year, the highest rate for that period since 2010.

---

---

One would need to analyze this by commercial sector. For instance, damn near every company involved in commercial real estate in places like say… San Francisco, will file or have filed BK in order to walk away from unoccupied spaces or buildings with diminished value.

Overall I think the economy is headed to a steep dip and frankly surprised it has not happened. Fortunately, a dip closer to the election in November 2024 would be way more helpful than one now that sees a recovery before next election. Just my 2 cents.

---

I agree with most of what you are stating but let's look at REALITY.

the reality is that in 2022 the economy "seemed" to be worse with raging inflation continuing to hit new highs every month.

result was Biden and the Democrats did better in the mid-terms than nearly any other time in history.

so based on REALITY, you put up Trump again in 24 and there is no reason to believe that the results from 2022 mid-terms or the 2020 elections would be any different.

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Reality is I never mentioned Trump in my post, but even if he is the nominee it's irrelevant to bankruptcies.

Reality is poor messaging on SCOTUS R v W overturn and even worse the colossally stupid legislation many Rs put forward to "spike the ball" on abortion rights.

Reality is Rs are terrible at messaging, getting out the vote, and infighting rather than picking a candidate and going all in to the hair.

Back on topic, I would prefer a financial collapse happen early 2024. When it occurs will be decided by the Chinese and OPEC.

doubledog said:

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Go woke go broke.
Fire all employees that do not add to the bottom line including DEI directors.

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Those idiots are the starting point. Then you fire everyone in those departments.

Here is the actual Forbes article.

Forbes Article - And here are the companies that make up the list.

Quote:

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• Diebold Nixdorf
• Incora
• Qualtek Services
• Plastiq
• Venator Materials
• Envision Healthcare
• Kidde-Fenwal
• Vice Media
• INAP
• Jenny Craig
• Bittrex
• Bed, Bath & Beyond
• Whittaker Clark & Daniels
• Meridian Restaurants Unlimited
• Pear Therapeutics
• Legacy Cares Inc.
• Virgin Orbit
• Codiak BioSciences
• SVB Financial
• HyreCar
• Diamond Sports Group
• Zugo
• LexaGene Holdings
• Akorn Pharmaceuticals
• Starry Group Holdings
• Tuesday Morning
• JDI Data Corp.
• Lucira Health
• Independent Pet Partners
• Placer Academy Schools
• Avaya Holdings Corp.
• Sorrento Therapeutics
• Cash Cloud
• Loyal Companion
• Emergent Fidelity Technologies
• Invacare
• Genesis Global Capita

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i've not heard of most of these. Which is pretty usual for corporate bankruptcies. The three I do know, Bitrex and Jenny Craig can't compete in their particular markets and Bed Bath and Beyond was sunk way before now. Which is pretty usually for corporate bankruptcies.

I know 1st quarter profits are down for corporations overall, but the market sure as hell surged in the first half of the year. S&P +14%

And, note this:
ICI Global

Quote:

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Washington, DC; June 22, 2023Total money market fund assets1 decreased by $18.23 billion to $5.43 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, June 21, the Investment Company Institute reported today.

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$5.43 TRILLION sitting on the sidelines Look at this graph


This run happened when record amounts of money are being stored in CASH.

You are about to see a flood into the market.

Now, there may be an extremely short dip and it may be 2nd quarter profits "being down" as the news that triggers it. But this talk of recession and all didn't bring the market down like it was anticipated and there is just too much cash sitting out.

My opinion: Cash from the big investment companies will start to get dumped into the market just in time for the election cycle. I can't time this thing, I do believe the market is about to explode and the timing will most certainly help Biden and his "see what I did" BS we will hear non-stop.

Is the economy good? Not even close. Interest rates are very high, which is why so much cash is allowed to sit on the sidelines. Debt is at an all-time high. Way too many used the low interest rates to fund themselves, and now can't afford to pay it back with these rates. But I don't think that will matter much. The **** that the Republicans allowed with the debt celling limit will tide us over thru the elections, so the effect, if any, won't be felt until it's too late.

But I've been wrong before.

fka ftc said:

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Not completely true. There is the WARN act that requires certain notices. Been a while but I believe there are exceptions to WARN.

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The WARN act - Stokes & Lawrence

Quote:

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Are you an employer who must comply with the WARN Act? In general, you must comply with the WARN Act if you have 100 or more full-time employees.

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Many companies have over 100 employees, but may not have over 100 FULL TIME employees.

Quote:

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There are also rules covering incremental employment losses of less than 50 employees over a 90-day period (aka the "90-day aggregation rule"). In general, this occurs (a) over a 90-day period; (b) when there are two or more rounds of employment losses (aka layoffs) at a single site of employment; (c) when the number of employees lost during each layoff round is less than 50 employees; but (d) the total number of laid-off employees is more than 50 and exceeds 33% of the active workforce. In this "incremental employment loss" scenario, an employer's obligations under the WARN Act are triggered.

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For companies under 100 employees, they still may have to give notice if a second layoff happens, and the total is over 33% of the workforce.

Just something folks may or may not know.

fka ftc said:

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Not completely true. There is the WARN act that requires certain notices. Been a while but I believe there are exceptions to WARN.

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I stand corrected. Depends on size of company. For the most part, 'At Will' means today can be your last day.

Related story: My WARN notice when I was with General Dynamics (Now Lockheed), DOD canceled our contract. The WARN notice simply stated that we would be laid off immediately without pay forward.

oneeyedag said:

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Bankruptcy attorneys on standby for student loan fiasco. Creditors gonna get hammered

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The student loan payment "holiday" ending is a massive headwind that many are underestimating. Since people have not had to make those payments many have not been adding those payments to the persons debt loan when considering apartment, small loan or other credit qualifications. The payees have not either and it will be a rude awakening.

TxAggieBand85 said:

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fka ftc said:

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Not completely true. There is the WARN act that requires certain notices. Been a while but I believe there are exceptions to WARN.

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I stand corrected. Depends on size of company. For the most part, 'At Will' means today can be your last day.

Related story: My WARN notice when I was with General Dynamics (Now Lockheed), DOD canceled our contract. The WARN notice simply stated that we would be laid off immediately without pay forward.

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Many companies also include notice requirements in their employment contracts that guarantee you some amount of notice (but also require that you provide notice before leaving, usually 2 weeks). My last employer gave me 1 week per year I was there, up to 12 weeks. It's pretty common in my industry.

230 to May?
Seems similar to 2021, but less than 2020.