aggie93 said:
Maybe 10% of the folks in the DeSantis or Trump camp are "Only Trump" or "Only DeSantis". Most are on the spectrum between the 2 with the most common being "I like both and will vote for either but I prefer X vs Y". That's also the most common sentiment among Republicans.
The thing that irritates DeSantis supporters btw isn't that Trump has some crazy followers. DeSantis has some too. The irritating thing is that Trump elevates them and sometimes pays them. He will introduce them at his rallies and encourage people to listen to them and he gives them credibility. It seems the more outrageous they are the more he does it. I'm long past the "outrage" phase with Trump but it is irritating if for no other reason than it is so counterproductive when he does it. Trump is who he is though and there is no changing him, mainly he just isn't a serious person when it comes to policy and just loves to be loved. He's far more celebrity than politician but that's part of the game and there are far worse than him.
I think it's less than 10% on both sides...but I agree it is a great minority within their overall support...
I don't know who Trump/DeSantis/Haley/Obama/Biden/Clinton pay to act as influencers and such...and I'm sure ALL of them have to some extent...
My point is...I just don't think that many folks are listening to them...I know I sure as hell don't...the only posts I ever see from Twitter or Truth Social are on TexAgs...
I mean these influencers are all certainly slanted and claim to have all the facts...but I just don't buy into them...I trust my own eyes...
I also believe that most voters will "vote the D" or "vote the R" out of habit...some in the middle might be more apt to listen, but when I look at the polling averages, I'm simply saying that there isn't a raging anti-Trump sentiment in the actual polling averages just yet... Still could be, but it's not there...
On this date in 2020, the RCP polling average was Biden +4...today, it is Trump +2.9...
Both are within the MOE, but both show different leaders...you can see similarities in the battlground state polling from 2020 and now as well...but again, with Trump having the edge (yes, razor thin in a couple of states), which is the opposite of 2020...
Here's what I'm watching...as Trump gains the nomination, and it becomes a Tump v Biden argument again, will that +2.9 grow or shrink for Trump moving forward? I don't have that answer, and that's why I am against speaking in absolutes...
What also has me on guard? The "what if the Ds replace Biden" threat...not only would it be unprecedented, I think it could create wild swings that take time (perhaps up to election day itself) to normalize...so that's why I'm saying all bets are off if that were to happen...