with Vivek and Hutchinson dropping out today

it's down to literally THREE candidates

if DeSantis can block Haley from winning her own home state in SC, she will have to drop out.

that brings it to a two person race before Super Tuesday and Florida.

it's worth it to stay all the way until the convention with Trump being near 80 and obese and facing 91 felonies. you want to be in second place in the delegate count if the Convention needs to replace Trump.

You're grasping at straws…literally the only chance is for Trump not to be available to run…

There's literally no other realistic path…

I know this is one of the mourning phases, but don't drive yourself crazy looking for a loophole that doesn't exist…

Ted Cruz has endorsed Trump…

FireAg said:

---

Ted Cruz has endorsed Trump…

---

Ted knows he better kiss the ring, or Trump will tell MAGA to not vote for him in November.

Simple as that.

Final results for Iowa (RCP Average vs. Actual Votes):



In a nutshell, the polling averages missed on DeSantis's performance by ~4 points (both versus Trump and versus Haley)...

I fully admit, I was expecting them to miss by 10-15 points as I truly thought DeSantis's ground game was going to be somewhat effective...

In the end, not being able to win a single county out of 99 counties...frankly...it shocks me...

FireAg said:

---

Final results for Iowa (RCP Average vs. Actual Votes):



In a nutshell, the polling averages missed on DeSantis's performance by ~4 points (both versus Trump and versus Haley)...

I fully admit, I was expecting them to miss by 10-15 points as I truly thought DeSantis's ground game was going to be somewhat effective...

In the end, not being able to win a single county out of 99 counties...frankly...it shocks me...

---

I honestly thought the result would be better, and I still do not trust polls. I think there is a whole lot of manipulation going on and it's a self fulfilling prophecy, but also we do live in Idiocracy. The "right" is just as human as the left and still loves those dopamine hits of reality TV.

Still going to hold out hope that we aren't "that" stupid... but we didn't get to this point because we're so smart.

Question for DeSantis backers and those conservatives who care about the conservative movement and actually winning a Presidential election:

is it better for Trump to lose New Hampshire to Haley or better for Haley to lose and be forced out of the race after South Carolina?

Trump losing would be a nice reminder to the trogs that he is not some all powerful deity

on the other hand, Haley may get so much momentum she then supplants DeSantis. or she just makes a deal with Trump to drop out in exchange for the VP.

so we still have some drama yet boys!

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Final results for Iowa (RCP Average vs. Actual Votes):



In a nutshell, the polling averages missed on DeSantis's performance by ~4 points (both versus Trump and versus Haley)...

I fully admit, I was expecting them to miss by 10-15 points as I truly thought DeSantis's ground game was going to be somewhat effective...

In the end, not being able to win a single county out of 99 counties...frankly...it shocks me...

---

I honestly thought the result would be better, and I still do not trust polls. I think there is a whole lot of manipulation going on and it's a self fulfilling prophecy, but also we do live in Idiocracy. The "right" is just as human as the left and still loves those dopamine hits of reality TV.

Still going to hold out hope that we aren't "that" stupid... but we didn't get to this point because we're so smart.

---

While the final winner obviously wasn't impacted by the networks calling the race before people were done voting, I can't see how the margin and results weren't impacted by that. There have been a lot of reports of people who weren't even inside yet but were getting notifications that the race was over.

LMCane said:

---

Question for DeSantis backers and those conservatives who care about the conservative movement and actually winning a Presidential election:

is it better for Trump to lose New Hampshire to Haley or better for Haley to lose and be forced out of the race after South Carolina?

Trump losing would be a nice reminder to the trogs that he is not some all powerful deity

on the other hand, Haley may get so much momentum she then supplants DeSantis. or she just makes a deal with Trump to drop out in exchange for the VP.

so we still have some drama yet boys!

---

Polling averages, for now, show Trump performing well versus Biden head-to-head in swing states... My opinion is that, if he goes into election day in November with healthy polling averages that exceed the MOE, it's going to be hard to pack the ballot boxes at 2AM in order to make up that much ground, and even more folks will call BS at that point... I simply don't think they can cheat this one the same way if he has healthy leads in polling averages...

As for Haley and New Hampshire, that one is the key to me as to whether or not Haley will remain a viable option going into Super Tuesday... I think she needs to win it to be able to go to the masses and proclaim she still has a chance...again, that's my opinion... But looking at the polling averages in SC and NV, Haley's only chance to remain at least statistically viable is a win in NH...

DeSantis's goose is cooked, I'm afraid...he can stay in as long as the $ holds out, but he's polling in 5th right now, with Christie and Ramaswamy still in the equation, but even if you assumed DeSantis picked up ALL of Christie's and Ramaswamy's support (which he wouldn't, but for the sake of argument), he would still trail Haley by 8 points, and Trump by 21 points...

In the end though, the only way Trump isn't the nominee is if he is unable to run for whatever reason...Iowa was such a blowout, that I think it finished off DeSantis, and it put NH as make-or-break for Haley...

FireAg said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Question for DeSantis backers and those conservatives who care about the conservative movement and actually winning a Presidential election:

is it better for Trump to lose New Hampshire to Haley or better for Haley to lose and be forced out of the race after South Carolina?

Trump losing would be a nice reminder to the trogs that he is not some all powerful deity

on the other hand, Haley may get so much momentum she then supplants DeSantis. or she just makes a deal with Trump to drop out in exchange for the VP.

so we still have some drama yet boys!

---

Polling averages....
.....
....
Blah blah polls and more polls.
...
DeSantis's goose is cooked......
....
....
Iowa was such a blowout, that I think it finished off DeSantis, and it put NH as make-or-break for Haley...

---

You guessed it Polls , Polls and more Polls from a self declared DeSantis backer.

I'd like to see a 3 way debate, DeSantis, Dean Phillips if Haley, Trump, and Biden won't debate before NH primaries. RFK can be invited too even though he's independent.

LMCane said:

---

Question for DeSantis backers and those conservatives who care about the conservative movement and actually winning a Presidential election:

is it better for Trump to lose New Hampshire to Haley or better for Haley to lose and be forced out of the race after South Carolina?

Trump losing would be a nice reminder to the trogs that he is not some all powerful deity

on the other hand, Haley may get so much momentum she then supplants DeSantis. or she just makes a deal with Trump to drop out in exchange for the VP.

so we still have some drama yet boys!

---

At this point I don't see a realistic path without something really wild happening to Trump such as a major health issue that anyone else will be the nominee. As to how many delegates you have in 2nd or 3rd place mattering? Meh. I think DeSantis wins in a matchup with Haley among the GOP pretty easily.

I plan to vote for DeSantis in the Primary even if he dropped out today and vote R in the General. I think there is value in DeSantis hanging around until South Carolina since he has spent so much money there and people have volunteered so much time for him there, if nothing else there are lessons to learn for the future. Barring a shocking result though I think that's it. Hanging around longer than that just racks up lots of losses and there isn't much real value. He can "suspend" the campaign of course so if something happens he can immediately jump back in.

I have thought the Trump/Haley thing was sewn up and still think that is most likely but she certainly seems like she is trying to blow it. She's really not good at this and is only being propped up by MASSIVE spending behind her and a lot of the "Not Trump" vote has been convinced she is the alternate and not DeSantis. I mean she is behind and trying to get attention and passes up the Debate with DeSantis because she doesn't want to get destroyed again. It's one thing for Trump to skip but Haley?

I think there is some drama but it's more about the backup plan/VP positioning now than anything. I started to think maybe DeSantis might reconsider getting in that game but in the end I still don't see it. If he did he would be going back on his word and would piss off a lot of his biggest supporters while putting his fate in Trump's hands. I just don't think he is built that way, Desantis seems like he would much rather lose with integrity than to sell out on just about anything. He's still a politician though and there are always things we can't see from the bleachers so who knows.

As for Haley winning or losing NH? I could see it both ways. In terms of DeSantis looking better? Haley losing. In terms of purely the GOP chances of winning in November? Haley winning and putting real pressure on Trump to make her the VP. Trump/Haley makes me want to puke but it is also probably the best shot at winning if we have Trump at the top of the ticket from a pure political calculus perspective.

aggie93 said:

---

I don't see a realistic path without something really wild happening to Trump such as a major health issue that anyone else will be the nominee.

there are lessons to learn for the future.

I have thought the Trump/Haley thing was sewn up and still think that is most likely

---

I kept waiting for someone to make a big move after the debates started, and literally the only polling movement of any significance came from Haley...

Lessons to be learned, if internalized and embraced, could really help DeSantis in the long run...I hope he does take his campaign's autopsy to heart once it's officially over...

Trump/Haley is still my thinking for next November at the moment, but I truly have nothing to base that on at this point other than "gut", and my confidence in such is well below 50%...

FireAg said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

I don't see a realistic path without something really wild happening to Trump such as a major health issue that anyone else will be the nominee.

there are lessons to learn for the future.

I have thought the Trump/Haley thing was sewn up and still think that is most likely

---

I kept waiting for someone to make a big move after the debates started, and literally the only polling movement of any significance came from Haley...

Lessons to be learned, if internalized and embraced, could really help DeSantis in the long run...I hope he does take his campaign's autopsy to heart once it's officially over...

Trump/Haley is still my thinking for next November at the moment, but I truly have nothing to base that on at this point other than "gut", and my confidence in such is well below 50%...

---

I do agree DeSantis needs to learn from the campaign but he also needs to not throw the baby out with the bathwater. In the end the 2 biggest reasons he is extremely unlikely to win comes down to 3 things, none of which he could do much about:

1. Trump legal issues have rallied the base around him and they are nonstop. That made a lot of people overlook Trump's flaws and ignore policy arguments.

2. People like DeSantis but they just like Trump more. The legal stuff and other attacks have only made that more pronounced because it made Trump into the victim and allowed him to be in fighter mode. People just love the imagery of stuff like the arrest photo and in the end that was just really difficult to overcome. Throw in the "stolen election" and Trump getting screwed out of his 2nd Term and people remembering the Pre Covid years and the wall was too high.

3. Haley was on life support and then got all that Koch and Wall Street money in November that brought her back to life. She was never going to win but it allowed her to become an alternative to not only the "Never Trump" crowd but the "Please don't make me vote for Trump" crowd and split that with DeSantis. You also had Vivek nipping at his heels even though he was never a legit threat he took some of the "I really like Trump but we need something new" vote. To win DeSantis needed a 1v1 with Trump and it's not going to happen barring something unforseen at this point. Same thing happened to Cruz in many ways.

Were there things DeSantis could have done to change that? Sure, but it was far harder than certainly I expected. I did not expect so many conservative media voices to throw out any objectivity and go full on MAGA. So many folks that LOVED DeSantis just completely turned on him and also shut their eyes tight to any flaws with Trump. The biggest betrayal to me was Tucker Carlson but there were so many others. I don't know that we will ever get the full story on how that happened (I've seen some things but who knows) but that was just a brutal drag on DeSantis. I would have loved seeing the old Tucker have a DeSantis/Trump debate for instance. Oh well. Really learned a lot about who is an honest broker and who isn't in conservative media and unfortunately far too many fit into the latter category.

In the end though I just don't know how DeSantis overcomes all of that. I think he took a shot and hoped for some breaks that simply never came. Still things to learn and mistakes that were made. You have to reflect and learn (unless you are Trump of course but that's another story) if you want to get better. I am confident DeSantis will and that he still has a bright future, he needs to still handle himself properly for these next few weeks though and not make too many enemies.

Oh and btw:

Trump asking allies about possibility of Nikki Haley for vice president - CBS News

MAGA: ⁦@NikkiHaley⁩ will be your VP if Trump is the nominee.

Sweet Dreams! 😘 https://t.co/PbJUvpMQSb

— Susan Peak (@SuzyP39) January 17, 2024

I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

Dan Scott said:

---

I'd like to see a 3 way debate, DeSantis, Dean Phillips if Haley, Trump, and Biden won't debate before NH primaries. RFK can be invited too even though he's independent.

---

That's a decent idea for WMUR to have that debate instead of cancelling the GOP debate.

FireAg said:

---

I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

---

I wish he had come out firing at Trump a lot earlier than he did. However, I truly believe Trump has two groups of supporters:

1) Diehards, which aren't aren't ever going to love anyone more than they love Trump.

2) The Vengeance voters, who are voting for him because he's under attack by the Left. Many of these people will state in interviews that they like DeSantis but they just "have to vote for Trump because of what the Dems are doing to him."

No amount of headline grabbing by DeSantis would have changed either of those group's votes.

If Trump were to be 100% honest he would acknowledge that the biggest favor the Dems did for his re-election hopes was to continue to attack him after he left office. I mean, its almost like the Dems knew that would rile his base up while also riling up the Dem base. The gamble is the effect its going to have on the middle bloc of voters. That's a big gamble considering its only the fate of our country that hangs in the balance.

FL_Ag1998 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

---

I wish he had come out firing at Trump a lot earlier than he did. However, I truly believe Trump has two groups of supporters:

1) Diehards, which aren't aren't ever going to love anyone more than they love Trump.

2) The Vengeance voters, who are voting for him because he's under attack by the Left. Many of these people will state in interviews that they like DeSantis but they just "have to vote for Trump because of what the Dems are doing to him."

No amount of headline grabbing by DeSantis would have changed either of those group's votes.

If Trump were to be 100% honest he would acknowledge that the biggest favor the Dems did for his re-election hopes was to continue to attack him after he left office. I mean, its almost like the Dems knew that would rile his base up while also riling up the Dem base. The gamble is the effect its going to have on the middle bloc of voters. That's a big gamble considering its only the fate of our country that hangs in the balance.

---

Very good point. Add that to the fact that the media has done everything in their power to keep Trump front and center and make sure he is the candidate, and it was just too much of an uphill climb for ANYONE. I am not sure Desantis could have done anything that would have made any material difference whatsoever.

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FL_Ag1998 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

---

I wish he had come out firing at Trump a lot earlier than he did. However, I truly believe Trump has two groups of supporters:

1) Diehards, which aren't aren't ever going to love anyone more than they love Trump.

2) The Vengeance voters, who are voting for him because he's under attack by the Left. Many of these people will state in interviews that they like DeSantis but they just "have to vote for Trump because of what the Dems are doing to him."

No amount of headline grabbing by DeSantis would have changed either of those group's votes.

If Trump were to be 100% honest he would acknowledge that the biggest favor the Dems did for his re-election hopes was to continue to attack him after he left office. I mean, its almost like the Dems knew that would rile his base up while also riling up the Dem base. The gamble is the effect its going to have on the middle bloc of voters. That's a big gamble considering its only the fate of our country that hangs in the balance.

---

Very good point. Add that to the fact that the media has done everything in their power to keep Trump front and center and make sure he is the candidate, and it was just too much of an uphill climb for ANYONE. I am not sure Desantis could have done anything that would have made any material difference whatsoever.

---

If that's true, then I think you have to concede that DeSantis ran too soon...it was not the right time to pursue the White House for him...

FireAg said:

---

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FL_Ag1998 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

---

I wish he had come out firing at Trump a lot earlier than he did. However, I truly believe Trump has two groups of supporters:

1) Diehards, which aren't aren't ever going to love anyone more than they love Trump.

2) The Vengeance voters, who are voting for him because he's under attack by the Left. Many of these people will state in interviews that they like DeSantis but they just "have to vote for Trump because of what the Dems are doing to him."

No amount of headline grabbing by DeSantis would have changed either of those group's votes.

If Trump were to be 100% honest he would acknowledge that the biggest favor the Dems did for his re-election hopes was to continue to attack him after he left office. I mean, its almost like the Dems knew that would rile his base up while also riling up the Dem base. The gamble is the effect its going to have on the middle bloc of voters. That's a big gamble considering its only the fate of our country that hangs in the balance.

---

Very good point. Add that to the fact that the media has done everything in their power to keep Trump front and center and make sure he is the candidate, and it was just too much of an uphill climb for ANYONE. I am not sure Desantis could have done anything that would have made any material difference whatsoever.

---

If that's true, then I think you have to concede that DeSantis ran too soon...it was not the right time to pursue the White House for him...

---

Yep, he should have been magically genius and able to predict the future, but was not.

Not sure what kind of "genius" or "future predicting" skills were really necessary when the warning signs were in the polling numbers before he even flubbed his twitter announcement...

So many signs were there...but he ignored them...even when he had staffers telling him he needed to do things differently after entering...he ignored them...

Desantis should have started his own major media network 30 years ago that could document his every move and develop a huge following

The fact that he wasn't smart enough to do that means he ran his campaign poorly

FireAg said:

---

Not sure what kind of "genius" or "future predicting" skills were really necessary when the warning signs were in the polling numbers before he even flubbed his twitter announcement...

So many signs were there...but he ignored them...even when he had staffers telling him he needed to do things differently after entering...he ignored them...

---

I don't think he knew to what extent the media would relentlessly prop up Trump to ensure he is the guy they get to face...and defeat. I didn't. I totally underestimated how much the left would help Trump by keeping the spotlight on him and continuing to make him a martyr.

They are masterful deceivers and string pullers.

Oh well, country is toast.

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Not sure what kind of "genius" or "future predicting" skills were really necessary when the warning signs were in the polling numbers before he even flubbed his twitter announcement...

So many signs were there...but he ignored them...even when he had staffers telling him he needed to do things differently after entering...he ignored them...

---

I don't think he knew to what extent the media would relentlessly prop up Trump to ensure he is the guy they get to face...and defeat. I didn't. I totally underestimated how much the left would help Trump by keeping the spotlight on him and continuing to make him a martyr.

They are masterful deceivers and string pullers.

Oh well, country is toast.

---

So you're calling your shot? Trump ABSOLUTELY loses in November?

FL_Ag1998 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

---

I wish he had come out firing at Trump a lot earlier than he did. However, I truly believe Trump has two groups of supporters:

1) Diehards, which aren't aren't ever going to love anyone more than they love Trump.

2) The Vengeance voters, who are voting for him because he's under attack by the Left. Many of these people will state in interviews that they like DeSantis but they just "have to vote for Trump because of what the Dems are doing to him."

No amount of headline grabbing by DeSantis would have changed either of those group's votes.

If Trump were to be 100% honest he would acknowledge that the biggest favor the Dems did for his re-election hopes was to continue to attack him after he left office. I mean, its almost like the Dems knew that would rile his base up while also riling up the Dem base. The gamble is the effect its going to have on the middle bloc of voters. That's a big gamble considering its only the fate of our country that hangs in the balance.

---

Agreed. Plus DeSantis' only opportunity was if Haley and others lost steam and dropped out early making it a two horse race. Once the establishment backed her it was over because they were always going to split the non Trump vote.

And yea, no amount of "grabbing headlines", whatever that means from our resident polling expert, would have changed anything.

FireAg said:

---

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Not sure what kind of "genius" or "future predicting" skills were really necessary when the warning signs were in the polling numbers before he even flubbed his twitter announcement...

So many signs were there...but he ignored them...even when he had staffers telling him he needed to do things differently after entering...he ignored them...

---

I don't think he knew to what extent the media would relentlessly prop up Trump to ensure he is the guy they get to face...and defeat. I didn't. I totally underestimated how much the left would help Trump by keeping the spotlight on him and continuing to make him a martyr.

They are masterful deceivers and string pullers.

Oh well, country is toast.

---

So you're calling your shot? Trump ABSOLUTELY loses in November?

---

Yep, without a doubt. Doesn't matter who he faces. He energizes the left to vote in a way no one else can.

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FireAg said:

---

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Not sure what kind of "genius" or "future predicting" skills were really necessary when the warning signs were in the polling numbers before he even flubbed his twitter announcement...

So many signs were there...but he ignored them...even when he had staffers telling him he needed to do things differently after entering...he ignored them...

---

I don't think he knew to what extent the media would relentlessly prop up Trump to ensure he is the guy they get to face...and defeat. I didn't. I totally underestimated how much the left would help Trump by keeping the spotlight on him and continuing to make him a martyr.

They are masterful deceivers and string pullers.

Oh well, country is toast.

---

So you're calling your shot? Trump ABSOLUTELY loses in November?

---

Yep, without a doubt. Doesn't matter who he faces. He energizes the left to vote in a way no one else can.

---

Maybe you're right...time will tell...

For now, his polling numbers in a head-to-head vs Biden in swing states are fairly strong in his favor...

I think that this isn't some conspiracy to prop him up just to beat him down, I think it shows that America has buyer's remorse over the last 4 years...

One of us is right, and one of us is wrong...guess we shall see in November...

Donald Trump got 56,260 votes in Iowa. Since when do only 56,260 people decide who the nominee for president of this country is? 49% of Iowa voters want someone other than him. That’s actually a shocking percentage for someone with 100% name recognition and who is essentially the…

— Jaimee Michell (@thegaywhostrayd) January 17, 2024

You're grasping for straws...the mourning process is going to be difficult for a few of you...

FireAg said:

---

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FireAg said:

---

BG Knocc Out said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Not sure what kind of "genius" or "future predicting" skills were really necessary when the warning signs were in the polling numbers before he even flubbed his twitter announcement...

So many signs were there...but he ignored them...even when he had staffers telling him he needed to do things differently after entering...he ignored them...

---

I don't think he knew to what extent the media would relentlessly prop up Trump to ensure he is the guy they get to face...and defeat. I didn't. I totally underestimated how much the left would help Trump by keeping the spotlight on him and continuing to make him a martyr.

They are masterful deceivers and string pullers.

Oh well, country is toast.

---

So you're calling your shot? Trump ABSOLUTELY loses in November?

---

Yep, without a doubt. Doesn't matter who he faces. He energizes the left to vote in a way no one else can.

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Maybe you're right...time will tell...

For now, his polling numbers in a head-to-head vs Biden in swing states are fairly strong in his favor...

I think that this isn't some conspiracy to prop him up just to beat him down, I think it shows that America has buyer's remorse over the last 4 years...

One of us is right, and one of us is wrong...guess we shall see in November...

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I hope I am wrong brother...I guess anything is possible.

The fever-pitch exhortations from Trumpworld telling DeSantis to drop out tells me three things:

1. The know they would lose to Biden massively without us.
2. They know it isn't actually close to being over after Iowa.
3. They desperately fear a 1-1 matchup with RDS.

LFG! pic.twitter.com/07DXvpB0GU

— Built To Last (@nexusothecrisis) January 17, 2024

FireAg said:

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I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

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I mean I don't completely disagree but the first is kind of like saying he needed to throw more deep passes against a crowded secondary. He actually took some shots but it's tough against a prevent defense.

He also did make it clear he would pardon Trump, it's just his followers and the media didn't want to cover it or admit it because that would have made him less of an enemy.

In the end I don't think either of those would have turned the tide. This election ended up being about Trump and not DeSantis and people like Trump. The good news is he is emerging from this with good national recognition and still pretty damn high positives all things considered. Outside of the folks that have "Trump is Jesus" books and anyone that says an ill word or opposes him is committing heresy the consensus from most Trump folks is "I wish he would wait until '28" or "I would rather him be VP". Few hate DeSantis and I don't know any that would prefer Haley over DeSantis.

Anyway, plenty of lessons to learn but I feel more confident than ever that DeSantis didn't have a path with so many forces aligned against him. He ended up with no real allies and while he has a base of support himself it wasn't enough in a 4 person field and the conservative media doing all they could to keep him down. He's only 45 and will be fine provided he can finish out positively, not make more enemies, and go back to Florida and keep kicking ass.

I think he is going to be the frontrunner in '28 at this point but things can and will continue to evolve.

FireAg said:

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BG Knocc Out said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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FireAg said:

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I know many of y'all have scoffed and laughed me off for saying it, but I really think he needed to do two things right off the bat:

1. Say something outlandish to grab a headline or two from the get-go (I hear y'all...not his style, etc...but he needed to make some real noise of his own in the echo chamber)... Even if he had to walk it back later, he would have grabbed a little spotlight in the moment...

2. Early on say that one of his first priorities would be to pardon Trump of all wrongdoing in all cases so that the counry could move on from political persecution...

I said those things even before his launch, and though I have no proof it would have helped him, I think it would at least have provided a voice for him in the echo chamber...no way to know if it would have carried him to victory (likely a bridge too far without knowing what his follow ups would have been), but I do think it would have caught eyes and given him a little momentum bump...

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I wish he had come out firing at Trump a lot earlier than he did. However, I truly believe Trump has two groups of supporters:

1) Diehards, which aren't aren't ever going to love anyone more than they love Trump.

2) The Vengeance voters, who are voting for him because he's under attack by the Left. Many of these people will state in interviews that they like DeSantis but they just "have to vote for Trump because of what the Dems are doing to him."

No amount of headline grabbing by DeSantis would have changed either of those group's votes.

If Trump were to be 100% honest he would acknowledge that the biggest favor the Dems did for his re-election hopes was to continue to attack him after he left office. I mean, its almost like the Dems knew that would rile his base up while also riling up the Dem base. The gamble is the effect its going to have on the middle bloc of voters. That's a big gamble considering its only the fate of our country that hangs in the balance.

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Very good point. Add that to the fact that the media has done everything in their power to keep Trump front and center and make sure he is the candidate, and it was just too much of an uphill climb for ANYONE. I am not sure Desantis could have done anything that would have made any material difference whatsoever.

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If that's true, then I think you have to concede that DeSantis ran too soon...it was not the right time to pursue the White House for him...

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I think this is accurate in hindsight but was much harder to see a year ago. Sure, the scenario that played out was forseeable if not likely but campaigns rarely go to plan. Lots of things could have broken his way to change things but they didn't. For instance people continued to get energized by the legal stuff and not grow tired of it. The media was perfectly happy to endorse Trump saying that he didn't need to debate and put zero pressure on him to do so, hell they were taking his side. So many con media folks also basically went fully hostile on DeSantis and spread every rumor they could about him and bought into the "He has terrible people around him/He's surrounded by RINO's/I like DeSantis but his influencers are the worst" etc.

The peak idiocy was the heels thing which was completely made up and yet they ran with it and hammered DeSantis like they were Steven Cheong The PBD interview where he handed DeSantis some loafers was one of the most disgusting things I've ever seen in terms of a generally well thought of commentator acting like a clown. I could go on and on but really doesn't matter mcuh at this point other than lessons learned and to remember how some people acted.

As an aside I was listening to Deace and he did bring up one point that the Trump folks are going to end up regretting as we all will. They endorsed and laughed about how the media called the Iowa Caucus before votes were even cast in real time. That is an insanely dangerous precedent that was created and the Trump folks just endorsed it. If you don't think the media isn't going to use that in November you are nuts. He brought up the scenario in November when you have a long line of folks in Suburban Georgia waiting to vote and then they receive a text that Biden/Newsom/whomever has won Georgia. How many of those folks leave the line? In a race that could come down to a handful of votes that could absolutely make the difference and now it has been normalized.

I remember the 2000 election when they literally called Florida right at the East Coast time closing for Gore. Not only were people in line you also had a full hour of open polls in the DARK Red Panhandle of Florida and they just told those folks waiting their vote didn't matter. Of course Bush still won by 537 votes.

If we don't stand up to the media and tell them to stop interfering just because they help our guy sometimes we can't complain when it goes the other way.

aggie93 said:

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he needed to throw more deep passes against a crowded secondary.

He also did make it clear he would pardon Trump

In the end I don't think either of those would have turned the tide.

He's only 45 and will be fine provided he can finish out positively, not make more enemies, and go back to Florida and keep kicking ass. I think he is going to be the frontrunner in '28 at this point but things can and will continue to evolve.

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One of his fatal flaws was assuming he was in a field of challengers with no incumbent...as I noted many times, Trump was polling like an incumbent, regardless of not actually being an "incumbent"... So he needed to take some big risks in order to be seen...

I mean, he did finally make it clear he would pardon Trump...but let's not pretend he came out "guns blazing", shouting from the mountaintop, "on day 1, Trump will be pardoned and the poltical persecution ends here so that our country can heal and move forward!"... He had an opportunity to say something like that on [failure to] launch day...that would have stolen a headline...without question... Further, I think there was potential for him to show that he was the man "that could save Trump from the gallows", which would have shown potential weakness for Trump, with the obvious interpretation that Trump needed someone else to save him because Trump couldn't do it by himself...

Turned the tide? Hard to say...I think being bold, brash, and outspoken would have caught more eyes...resulted in winning the nomination? I can't go that far, but I think it would have been enough to get him some momentum and remain competitive, perhaps winning over voters from at least the other "also rans"...it may have even led to a tightly contested convention (maybe even analagous to 1976?), if he played his cards right... I still say to have had any chance, he needed to make a splash, some way...some how...from the beginning...

Up until Monday's vote, I would have agreed whole-heartedly that he would be seen as the likely front runner in 2018...But the trouncing he took on Monday...man...it was historically bad... All of the bravado about visiting 99 counties and commitments from over 60,000 caucus goers, and knocking on over 3,000,000 doors...and then he can't win a single county? Not one? I don't know how I view his political future nationally, to be honest...that was a huge whiff...a bunch of promises and 0% delivery... I even fell victim to it myself thinking that, while polling wouldnt be 30+ points wrong, I was struggling to see how there was such a huge gap in reality...DeSantis had put so much into Iowa, and I felt like the polls were missing a good portion of that effort...really thought he would finish within 15-19 points of Trump, which would have been the largest gap between polling and actuals in Iowa Caucus history, and by quite a bit... But alas, it was abouta 4 point difference, which is far from the record, and pretty much about average for that state's caucuses versus polling... I'm just not ready to make any bold predictions about his political capital moving forward right now...think I am still a little shellshocked at the magnitude of the trouncing...

aggie93 said:

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As an aside I was listening to Deace and he did bring up one point that the Trump folks are going to end up regretting as we all will. They endorsed and laughed about how the media called the Iowa Caucus before votes were even cast in real time. That is an insanely dangerous precedent that was created and the Trump folks just endorsed it.

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Ah, but do you recall Cruz's media play during the Caucuses in 2016 which torpedoed Ben Carson, and (allegeldy) swung a bunch of votes Cruz's way on caucus day, giving him the edge over Trump?

I mean...say what you will about this past Monday, but things like this aren't unprecedented on caucus day...we saw something similar in 2016...

And again, to be 100% transparent, I didn't think DeSantis had a snowball's chance in hell of taking Iowa with an outright win, so when I was reading the entrance polling and very early exit polling by FoxNews from the caucus goers, I felt like it was going to be over pretty quick, and likely before many of the gatherings had concluded their proceedings...