I do

FireAg said:

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Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…

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Ron is going to run away with it. He has to.

We will see, I suppose.

Very disturbed to see that Nikki Haley is leading RDS, though.

Im voting R whether it's DJT or RDS, but I will not vote for Nikki Haley.

As much as I wish I could take back my vote for McCain and Romney, I cant. But I cant vote for Nikki for the same reason.

I voted for Trump for that exact reason, and I think a lot of people did. We want to see DC take a sledgehammer to the dome. There are no citizen-statesmen there. They are all robbing us blind.

I'll go on record and say I think the polls are right with regard to winner, but I expect tighter margins…

FireAg said:

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I'll go on record and say I think the polls are right with regard to winner, but I expect tighter margins…

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In 2016, the last poll before the caucuses had Rubio at 15% but he finished just over 23%. Eight point swing.

FireAg said:

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I'll go on record and say I think the polls are right with regard to winner, but I expect tighter margins…

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Will you stop talking about polls so much if DeSantis wins?

FireAg said:

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I'll go on record and say I think the polls are right with regard to winner, but I expect tighter margins…

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That's a HUGE hedge.

The polls show +32 pts.

So, +31 is a tighter margin. So is +1.

BUT...those are COMPLETELY different results.

shack009 said:

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FireAg said:

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I'll go on record and say I think the polls are right with regard to winner, but I expect tighter margins…

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Will you stop talking about polls so much if DeSantis wins?

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Well, he'll stop saying "it's impossible to make up 33 points" 17 times per thread at least.

Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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aggiehawg said:

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This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

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But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

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Reagan had plenty of folks that hated him. Hell I lived in Germany while he was in office and remember some folks that bombed the building my Dad worked in at Ramstein because they were angry about him. The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

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Yeah..there was that narrative. But it wasn't "hate". It was more political attacks from the left that he was the dumb cowboy.

He got along well (maybe too well, sometimes) with the left back then. But they hadn't entered psycho mode yet.

Not sure of the bombing in Ramstein. I'd moved from England to the US by then.

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There was a lot of terrorism in Europe against the US bases and soldiers people forgot about. Most of it was Russian backed Leftist groups most likely. I remember we lived off base and I was in the school bus on the way in and it was stopped and eventually they turned us around as the base was on lock down. It was at the HQ building and had it been an hour or two later it would have been much worse and I may have lost my father. They took some potshots at Generals cars and some other stuff but they were all in armored Mercedes. After that any time you went by the area where the Generals were housed you saw multiple guys hanging out front with M16s. I remember at least 3 times going to see a movie and someone called in a bomb threat so we had to leave. It was an interesting experience for a kid to grow up in.

I agree the hate was different back then and Reagan made it hard to truly hate him. He was just such a great speaker and had such natural charm. Mainly though it was just a different era when you would have debate shows that were actually honest debates of both sides and while news coverage was definitely biased it wasn't anything like now. They actually covered the news.

One of the strangest phenomenons now is we have more information than ever yet trying to find accurate information is more difficult than ever.

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Oh...

I was talking about hate in the US. Basically, the stuff that Trump is going through. Where not just the leftwing populace hates Trump but even the politicians. Reagan never really had that. Some may have disliked him but it wasn't this psyco-visceral hate we're seeing now.

Sure, lots of OTHER countries hated Reagan, though, because he didn't put up with their *****

I lived in England during the 70s. Going to London was always interesting since the IRA was blowing up cars at the time. I remember my dad checking under the car every time we were leaving.

BTW, if you were in Ramstein at that time, you may have gone to school with my best friend's little sister. His folks moved there right after we graduated in '86.

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I missed them, I was there from '80-83. Definitely interesting times.

FireAg said:

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Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…

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I'm certainly hoping so but I also recognize there are way too many variables to really know what is going to happen. I feel more confident in picking the score of the A&M/Notre Dame game next season.

The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Screw those pesky voters having a say.

JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Not sure if you noticed, but Trump is not going against Biden in the Iowa caucus today.

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…

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I'm certainly hoping so but I also recognize there are way too many variables to really know what is going to happen. I feel more confident in picking the score of the A&M/Notre Dame game next season.

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Do you have any sense of how many ballot rounds there might be?

I remember in 2016, there were enough Cruz people present targeting Carson voters to flip to him since Carson was expected to drop out shortly.

shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Not sure if you noticed, but Trump is not going against Biden in the Iowa caucus today.

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Will you vote for him if he wins the primary? It's not looking good for any other candidates

Voters are picking MAGA...

Good luck doing this weird caucus nonsense to any Ag's in Iowa today.

And hopefully you will support Desantis as a true conservative with an excellent track record of results as Governor of a large state. Talk is cheap; results should matter.

Matt Hooper said:

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Good luck doing this weird caucus nonsense to any Ag's in Iowa today.

And hopefully you will support Desantis as a true conservative with an excellent track record of results as Governor of a large state. Talk is cheap; results should matter.

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"Count out, starting at 1, going around the room."

"1...2...3...132"

"The count for candidate A is 132"

</call made to HQ with "132" >




Fcking. Weird.


LoL

JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Their time has come and gone

Let's vote for the decrepit 80 year old Trump

FL_Ag1998 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Your recycling of your infantile leader's 5th grade level insult has convinced me. I'm all in on classy Trump and MAGA! They're clearly the type of professional, mature leadership this country needs right now.

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I voted for Trump in '16 and '20. Who did you support? He's been a nickname master since crooked Hillary.

JMR_2016 said:

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shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Not sure if you noticed, but Trump is not going against Biden in the Iowa caucus today.

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Will you vote for him if he wins the primary? It's not looking good for any other candidates

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Only if he promises to be way more conservative than he has been.

shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Not sure if you noticed, but Trump is not going against Biden in the Iowa caucus today.

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Will you vote for him if he wins the primary? It's not looking good for any other candidates

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Only if he promises to be way more conservative than he has been.

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HAHAHAHAHAHA

aggiehawg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…

---

I'm certainly hoping so but I also recognize there are way too many variables to really know what is going to happen. I feel more confident in picking the score of the A&M/Notre Dame game next season.

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Do you have any sense of how many ballot rounds there might be?

I remember in 2016, there were enough Cruz people present targeting Carson voters to flip to him since Carson was expected to drop out shortly.

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Absolutely no clue. It's impossible to distinguish between facts and misinformation at this point and then you throw in the weather. I've never seen such a complete disconnect in what is being reported on the ground and in Iowa vs nationally. I can speculate and have hopes or fears but I don't think anyone really knows.

I mean look at the post from Iowafarmer. It's insanely cold with a ton of snow and roads that may not be clear. Who shows up and where to a caucus tonight? How will they be impacted by who is there? No clue.

shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Not sure if you noticed, but Trump is not going against Biden in the Iowa caucus today.

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Will you vote for him if he wins the primary? It's not looking good for any other candidates

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Only if he promises to be way more conservative than he has been.

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Trump is only going to go further to the Left at this point. I mean the idea that AFTER he wins the nomination he gets more conservative is just complete delusion and runs against all political sense. This is as good as it will get.

JMR_2016 said:

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Voters are picking MAGA...

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Still literally zero votes so far.

aggie93 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…

---

I'm certainly hoping so but I also recognize there are way too many variables to really know what is going to happen. I feel more confident in picking the score of the A&M/Notre Dame game next season.

---

Do you have any sense of how many ballot rounds there might be?

I remember in 2016, there were enough Cruz people present targeting Carson voters to flip to him since Carson was expected to drop out shortly.

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Absolutely no clue. It's impossible to distinguish between facts and misinformation at this point and then you throw in the weather. I've never seen such a complete disconnect in what is being reported on the ground and in Iowa vs nationally. I can speculate and have hopes or fears but I don't think anyone really knows.

I mean look at the post from Iowafarmer. It's insanely cold with a ton of snow and roads that may not be clear. Who shows up and where to a caucus tonight? How will they be impacted by who is there? No clue.

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Weather conditions can work both ways. Maybe the Dems planning to show up, change registration and vote for Haley aren't that dedicated to the effort, to go out?

aggie93 said:

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shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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shack009 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Not sure if you noticed, but Trump is not going against Biden in the Iowa caucus today.

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Will you vote for him if he wins the primary? It's not looking good for any other candidates

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Only if he promises to be way more conservative than he has been.

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Trump is only going to go further to the Left at this point. I mean the idea that AFTER he wins the nomination he gets more conservative is just complete delusion and runs against all political sense. This is as good as it will get.

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https://giphy.com/gifs/election2016-election-2016-presidential-debate-26tknCqiJrBQG6bxC

Donald trump correct gif

aggiehawg said:

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aggie93 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…

---

I'm certainly hoping so but I also recognize there are way too many variables to really know what is going to happen. I feel more confident in picking the score of the A&M/Notre Dame game next season.

---

Do you have any sense of how many ballot rounds there might be?

I remember in 2016, there were enough Cruz people present targeting Carson voters to flip to him since Carson was expected to drop out shortly.

---

Absolutely no clue. It's impossible to distinguish between facts and misinformation at this point and then you throw in the weather. I've never seen such a complete disconnect in what is being reported on the ground and in Iowa vs nationally. I can speculate and have hopes or fears but I don't think anyone really knows.

I mean look at the post from Iowafarmer. It's insanely cold with a ton of snow and roads that may not be clear. Who shows up and where to a caucus tonight? How will they be impacted by who is there? No clue.

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Weather conditions can work both ways. Maybe the Dems planning to show up, change registration and vote for Haley aren't that dedicated the effort, to go out?

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I agree.

I think this weather benefits Desantis greatly. By every account on the ground, he's got a ground game surpassing even Cruz's in 16 whereas DementiaDon is relegated to begging, via mass text, for caucus captains with all the energy of a Jeb! campaign.

Quote:

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I agree.

I think this weather benefits Desantis greatly. By every account on the ground, he's got a ground game surpassing even Cruz's in 16 whereas DementiaDon is relegated to begging, via mass text, for caucus captains with all the energy of a Jeb! campaign.

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One caveat to that and yes it goes back to polling on enthusiasm. Trump at 49% very or extremely enthusiastic, DeSantis is about half that at 23% and Haley in third with 9%.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I agree.

I think this weather benefits Desantis greatly. By every account on the ground, he's got a ground game surpassing even Cruz's in 16 whereas DementiaDon is relegated to begging, via mass text, for caucus captains with all the energy of a Jeb! campaign.

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One caveat to that and yes it goes back to polling on enthusiasm. Trump at 49% very or extremely enthusiastic, DeSantis is about half that at 23% and Haley in third with 9%.

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Having been polled numerous times while there, I disagree completely. Answering a poll != enthusiasm. Even slightly. Especially when Trump's ignorant ass is telling everyone that "we've got the votes".

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I agree.

I think this weather benefits Desantis greatly. By every account on the ground, he's got a ground game surpassing even Cruz's in 16 whereas DementiaDon is relegated to begging, via mass text, for caucus captains with all the energy of a Jeb! campaign.

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One caveat to that and yes it goes back to polling on enthusiasm. Trump at 49% very or extremely enthusiastic, DeSantis is about half that at 23% and Haley in third with 9%.

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I find it hard to believe that less than a quarter of DeSantis' support is very or extremely enthusiastic. People like DeSantis because they are stoked to have a successful governor who has thoroughly dominated the left.

People don't like Ron DeSantis because he's Ron DeSantis. It's because he's been the best politician we've had in decades. That kind of candidacy draws enthusiastic support.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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JMR_2016 said:

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The time for Haley and DeSanctimonious has come and gone. Any decent folk would vote with MAGA over Biden

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Your recycling of your infantile leader's 5th grade level insult has convinced me. I'm all in on classy Trump and MAGA! They're clearly the type of professional, mature leadership this country needs right now.

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I voted for Trump in '16 and '20. Who did you support? He's been a nickname master since crooked Hillary.

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Lol - he's only a "nickname master" if you are either a. 12 years old or b. A complete moron.

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I'm getting strong "moving to Canada" vibes from you and others here when Trump takes back the White House. I'll still be a proud Republican when the day comes. Not gonna spend anymore time on here arguing with those who would rather abstain from voting in a general election than elect a Republican leader with 4 years of presidential experience. I live in reality and can see Trump will obviously (and rightfully) be the candidate.