FL_Ag1998 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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CBS poll.

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I didn't realize Hutchinson's extended family was large enough to make up 1% of the voters.

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aggiehawg said:

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CBS poll.

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Flip Haley and DeSantis and that is about right.



Trump deserves a real shot at the job without the bull crap he went thru in 2016-2020.

He also won in 2020 and was unfairly stripped of his win…

Rural American…leading the way!

Quote:

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I just don't think Trump is remotely like Reagan though I do see parallels with DeSantis. Hell he parrots Reagan all the time, even did with the "pastels" comment in the last debate. Gen X grew up looking up to Reagan as the model.

We will find out soon enough though.

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The analogy is not Trump=Reagan. I think any Republican would have beaten Carter that year, even HW Bush.

Ag with kids said:

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aggiehawg said:

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This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

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But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

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Reagan had plenty of folks that hated him. Hell I lived in Germany while he was in office and remember some folks that bombed the building my Dad worked in at Ramstein because they were angry about him. The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

Quote:

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The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

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That's the same narrative about Trump.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

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That's the same narrative about Trump.

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It was perhaps in 2016 to an extent but it really isn't a good parallel in '24. I mean if you squint just right it kind of looks similar but the comparison falls apart quickly. Reagan also never played around with words like Dictator which Trump stupidly did even though he was really saying he wouldn't be one.

Quote:

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Reagan also never played around with words like Dictator which Trump stupidly did even though he was really saying he wouldn't be one.

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Wanna bet? Reagan had some gaffes.

Quote:

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Former US president Ronald Reagan was famous for his gaffes.

His most noted came in 1984, at the height of the Cold War.
He said: "My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you I just signed legislation which outlaws Russia forever. The bombing begins in five minutes."
He was joking around in a voice-level test before broadcast, but it turned out the microphone was switched on.

He was a keen humorist and sometimes it was hard to tell which of his remarks were jokes and which were gaffes.

His assertion that "trees cause more pollution than automobiles" may have been seriously meant - at least it caused outrage among green groups.

He also reportedly said: "All the waste in a year from a nuclear power plant can be stored under a desk".
Asked by a reporter in 1966 what kind of governor he would be, the former B-movie actor is said to have replied: "I don't know. I've never played a governor".

And he was presumably deliberately joking when he said: "They say hard work never hurt anybody, but, I figure, why take the chance?"

And his intention may have been similar when he said: "I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself".

And again when he quipped: "I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of national emergency - even if I'm in a Cabinet meeting".

But "We are trying to get unemployment to go up, and I think we're going to succeed" appears to have been a slip of the tongue.

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LINK

No doubt Reagan was entertaining and funny!

Ag with kids said:

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aggiehawg said:

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This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

---

But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

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Actually there were plenty of people that called Reagan a NAZI, racist, etc.
Some even celebrated when Reagan was shot.
But the highly managed propaganda storm against Trump was not technologically possible vs Reagan and there weren't so MANY liberally trained young people.
And, lets face it, Trump makes an easy target with his desire to fight with insults -
compared to Reagan's ability to laugh at his enemies.

The look on Ron DeSantis face... pic.twitter.com/HW7igawyP2

— Freyja™ (@FreyjaTarte) January 14, 2024

BadMoonRisin said:

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The look on Ron DeSantis face... pic.twitter.com/HW7igawyP2

— Freyja™ (@FreyjaTarte) January 14, 2024

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No sense of awareness, really believed his press clippings.

Reminds of Dukakis.

BadMoonRisin said:

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The look on Ron DeSantis face... pic.twitter.com/HW7igawyP2

— Freyja™ (@FreyjaTarte) January 14, 2024

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Get that doctored BS out of here and stop being as dishonest as Trump.

DD88 said:

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BadMoonRisin said:

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The look on Ron DeSantis face... pic.twitter.com/HW7igawyP2

— Freyja™ (@FreyjaTarte) January 14, 2024

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Get that doctored BS out of here and stop being as dishonest as Trump.

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OK yep. Desantis is gonna surge to the front of the pack.

I am the delusional one, not you. Nope. Not you. Not you. Just keep telling yourself, you arent the delusional one. You can never be the delusional one though.....

Dude has 10% approval rating. And that's generous. Im the deluded one tho.

BadMoonRisin said:

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DD88 said:

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BadMoonRisin said:

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The look on Ron DeSantis face... pic.twitter.com/HW7igawyP2

— Freyja™ (@FreyjaTarte) January 14, 2024

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Get that doctored BS out of here and stop being as dishonest as Trump.

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OK yep. Desantis is gonna surge to the front of the pack.

I am the delusional one, not you. Nope. Not you. Not you. Just keep telling yourself, you arent the delusional one. You can never be the delusional one though.....

Dude has 10% approval rating. And that's generous. Im the deluded one tho.

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Go ahead and pull that up and post it for me, please?

You're the delusional one resorting to posting doctored videos.

Just a bunch of BMRisin, I suppose.

Round 2 of the AI Poll.

POLL ALERT AI & Tech poll Iowa Republican Primary
1/14/2024- PoliTech AI

Donald Trump: 38%
Ron DeSantis: 35%
Nikki Haley: 14%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 13%

Sentiment Trend:
Trump: falling
DeSantis: rising
Haley: falling
Ramaswamy: rising

N=500 (70% Republican 30% Independent)

(more…

— Robert J Salvador (@RobertJSalvador) January 15, 2024

aggie93 said:

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Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

---

But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

---

Reagan had plenty of folks that hated him. Hell I lived in Germany while he was in office and remember some folks that bombed the building my Dad worked in at Ramstein because they were angry about him. The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

---

Yeah..there was that narrative. But it wasn't "hate". It was more political attacks from the left that he was the dumb cowboy.

He got along well (maybe too well, sometimes) with the left back then. But they hadn't entered psycho mode yet.

Not sure of the bombing in Ramstein. I'd moved from England to the US by then.

Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

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Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

---

But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

---

Reagan had plenty of folks that hated him. Hell I lived in Germany while he was in office and remember some folks that bombed the building my Dad worked in at Ramstein because they were angry about him. The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

---

Yeah..there was that narrative. But it wasn't "hate". It was more political attacks from the left that he was the dumb cowboy.

He got along well (maybe too well, sometimes) with the left back then. But they hadn't entered psycho mode yet.

Not sure of the bombing in Ramstein. I'd moved from England to the US by then.

---

There was a lot of terrorism in Europe against the US bases and soldiers people forgot about. Most of it was Russian backed Leftist groups most likely. I remember we lived off base and I was in the school bus on the way in and it was stopped and eventually they turned us around as the base was on lock down. It was at the HQ building and had it been an hour or two later it would have been much worse and I may have lost my father. They took some potshots at Generals cars and some other stuff but they were all in armored Mercedes. After that any time you went by the area where the Generals were housed you saw multiple guys hanging out front with M16s. I remember at least 3 times going to see a movie and someone called in a bomb threat so we had to leave. It was an interesting experience for a kid to grow up in.

I agree the hate was different back then and Reagan made it hard to truly hate him. He was just such a great speaker and had such natural charm. Mainly though it was just a different era when you would have debate shows that were actually honest debates of both sides and while news coverage was definitely biased it wasn't anything like now. They actually covered the news.

One of the strangest phenomenons now is we have more information than ever yet trying to find accurate information is more difficult than ever.

I am interested to see how this one does…

My guess is the final results fall somewhere in between this one and the RCP average…but that "somewhere" is a huge error band…

If DeSantis can pull out the win, things get interesting…. If he gets blown out, the press will start writing his campaign's eulogy…. If he finishes a very close 2nd, it will be interesting to see if that helps him gain at least come momentum, but I'm still not convinced it propels him to the eventual nomination…

It's put up or shut up time…

Only the best people. He'll get it right this next time.

And another email sent with same mistake pic.twitter.com/N6IubCHHS0

— Matthew Bartlett (@MRBartlettNH) January 15, 2024

Betting odds at the moment to win Republican Primary.
Trump: -588 (85%)
Haley: +780 (11%)
Vivek: +5900
DeSantis: +6400 (1.5%)

So for all you DeSantis diehards, now is a great time to put a $1,000 on polls being wrong. A sweet $64,000 awaits you.

Not a DeSantis groupie but I may put a little money down with those odds.

PA24 said:

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Not a DeSantis groupie but I may put a little money down with those odds.

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Yeah those odds seem way out of whack. No idea why Vivek has shorter odds than DeSantis and why Haley is way shorter than both of them.

DeSantis pulls off tonight what he seems confident about and those odds drop significantly.

DeSantis can't win the nomination because he decided to run in the lane of trying to attract MAGA voters who don't like Trump. That is a very small percent of the electorate. He thought he could take the mantle, he can't. He will bend the knee and he will endorse Trump.

texagbeliever said:

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Betting odds at the moment to win Republican Primary.
Trump: -588 (85%)
Haley: +780 (11%)
Vivek: +5900
DeSantis: +6400 (1.5%)

So for all you DeSantis diehards, now is a great time to put a $1,000 on polls being wrong. A sweet $64,000 awaits you.

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If maga thinks those numbers make them happy, they should look at Biden's people. They'll be celebrating like it's 1999 all over again.

Hmmm…betting odds typically don't lie…

Trump continues to attack Vivek. He’s afraid. pic.twitter.com/egE4oXSi4M

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) January 15, 2024

No Spin Ag said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Betting odds at the moment to win Republican Primary.
Trump: -588 (85%)
Haley: +780 (11%)
Vivek: +5900
DeSantis: +6400 (1.5%)

So for all you DeSantis diehards, now is a great time to put a $1,000 on polls being wrong. A sweet $64,000 awaits you.

---

If maga thinks those numbers make them happy, they should look at Biden's people. They'll be celebrating like it's 1999 all over again.

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Yep that is why they are trying to get Trump off of ballots. Because they want him to win. So smart.

aggie93 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

---

But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

---

Reagan had plenty of folks that hated him. Hell I lived in Germany while he was in office and remember some folks that bombed the building my Dad worked in at Ramstein because they were angry about him. The narrative in the US was he was the dumb Cowboy that was going to kill us all. He was much better at deflecting and making those folks look foolish though, he did have a lot of natural charm and wit.

---

Yeah..there was that narrative. But it wasn't "hate". It was more political attacks from the left that he was the dumb cowboy.

He got along well (maybe too well, sometimes) with the left back then. But they hadn't entered psycho mode yet.

Not sure of the bombing in Ramstein. I'd moved from England to the US by then.

---

There was a lot of terrorism in Europe against the US bases and soldiers people forgot about. Most of it was Russian backed Leftist groups most likely. I remember we lived off base and I was in the school bus on the way in and it was stopped and eventually they turned us around as the base was on lock down. It was at the HQ building and had it been an hour or two later it would have been much worse and I may have lost my father. They took some potshots at Generals cars and some other stuff but they were all in armored Mercedes. After that any time you went by the area where the Generals were housed you saw multiple guys hanging out front with M16s. I remember at least 3 times going to see a movie and someone called in a bomb threat so we had to leave. It was an interesting experience for a kid to grow up in.

I agree the hate was different back then and Reagan made it hard to truly hate him. He was just such a great speaker and had such natural charm. Mainly though it was just a different era when you would have debate shows that were actually honest debates of both sides and while news coverage was definitely biased it wasn't anything like now. They actually covered the news.

One of the strangest phenomenons now is we have more information than ever yet trying to find accurate information is more difficult than ever.

---

Oh...

I was talking about hate in the US. Basically, the stuff that Trump is going through. Where not just the leftwing populace hates Trump but even the politicians. Reagan never really had that. Some may have disliked him but it wasn't this psyco-visceral hate we're seeing now.

Sure, lots of OTHER countries hated Reagan, though, because he didn't put up with their *****

I lived in England during the 70s. Going to London was always interesting since the IRA was blowing up cars at the time. I remember my dad checking under the car every time we were leaving.

BTW, if you were in Ramstein at that time, you may have gone to school with my best friend's little sister. His folks moved there right after we graduated in '86.

texagbeliever said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Betting odds at the moment to win Republican Primary.
Trump: -588 (85%)
Haley: +780 (11%)
Vivek: +5900
DeSantis: +6400 (1.5%)

So for all you DeSantis diehards, now is a great time to put a $1,000 on polls being wrong. A sweet $64,000 awaits you.

---

If maga thinks those numbers make them happy, they should look at Biden's people. They'll be celebrating like it's 1999 all over again.

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Yep that is why they are trying to get Trump off of ballots. Because they want him to win. So smart.

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Leftists want Trump to win the PRIMARY so they can beat him for the second time and beat him for the third time in the popular vote, including by convicting him and taking him off ballots.

most people with a high school education can understand this concept-

considering we have been discussing it on this thread for months now

it's hard to believe you still can't understand it.

This is called hedging. https://t.co/ByxsU48PMS

— Max Twain (@MaxTwain24) January 15, 2024

shiftyandquick said:

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DeSantis can't win the nomination because he decided to run in the lane of trying to attract MAGA voters who don't like Trump. That is a very small percent of the electorate. He thought he could take the mantle, he can't. He will bend the knee and he will endorse Trump.

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Where do you get dumb takes like this?

He's running on the conservative platform. Haley is running on the establishment/neocon platform, Trump is running on the populist platform. VIVEK is the one running on the Trump-lite platform.

They are ALL different.

DeSantis is trying to attract people who say that they actually want the things the Republican party says it's for.

Who on this thread thinks DeSantis wins Iowa today?

No childish betting or hedging…straight up…does DeSantis win in spite of the polls?

Just curious…