so half of all the GOP says right now they won't vote for Trump after he is convicted

and that's the REPUBLICANS- what about the independents?!?!

since he will be convicted- what if even 10% of the GOP then doesn't vote for Trump?

you are talking a Republican electoral defeat not seen since 1996 or 1988 (with dukakis getting run)

what's going to be hilarious is the "memory hole" this entire thread gets pushed into after November 2024.

when everything that many of us claimed YEARS AHEAD OF TIME would happen,

the Trumpers will meekly protest

"well no one could have seen this happening when we nominated him!!"

What…if he isn't?

LMCane said:

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what's going to be hilarious is the "memory hole" this entire thread gets pushed into after November 2024.

when everything that many of us claimed YEARS AHEAD OF TIME would happen,

the Trumpers will meekly protest

"well no one could have seen this happening when we nominated him!!"

---

I think you're jaded…and I get why, but I think if Trump is the nominee, he is not convicted, and he does face Biden in the general next year…he WINS…

Now that's a lot of "ifs"…absolutely concede that…

But it isn't outside the realm of possibility yet, and until it is, many of you are making assumptions based on assumptions…

That's been my point this entire time…

It's called "wish casting"…

TRM said:

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Really the rate of change of inflation has decreased, but these use stuff like that to deceive people.

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Yep. Those higher prices are locked in right now. They're just not going even higher quite as fast right now.

FireAg said:

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I think you're jaded…and I get why, but I think if Trump is the nominee, he is not convicted, and he does face Biden in the general next year…he WINS…

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If he's the nominee I sure as hell hope he wins because I can't stand the thought of the likely Dem majority that results if he loses.

But I think you're looking thru rose-colored glasses. He has lost A LOT of support within the R party and independents. I was a strong Trump fan and now can't stand him. I can look beyond that feeling to recognize he's still better than the Dem alternative, but there are many who can not. Yeah, ole Joe's popularity has fallen but it's not enough to make Trump-lovers out of those who despise him. Btw, gas prices have fallen, inflation is trending lower, and interest rates appear to have peaked... all positive data points for Biden. Trump is the only serious candidate who can lose to Biden.

Sure, he can get the nomination but what good does that do when he loses the general election?

I think Biden is bad enough that a lot of people who say they can't stand Trump, when presented with 4 more years of the current nonsense as the alternative, will begrudgingly vote his way…all of them? Absolutely not…but enough that he is ahead in the polls going into Election Day, and he pulls out a victory that can't be stolen…

I could ABSOLUTELY BE WRONG, I fully admit that…but the polling data says this is a possibility…and a distinct possibility at that…

Time will tell, but I simply think it's foolish to be assuming something is "absolutely going to go down this way or that" when there are far too many variables in play still…

The Banned said:

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TRM said:

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Would you vote for Donald Trump for president in 2024 if he is/has been - Convicted of a felony crime by a jury?

Yes 25%
No 59%

.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 4,411 Adults, 12/5-11https://t.co/HKnYKcWUAy pic.twitter.com/mUaqD9K8xR

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 14, 2023

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Which is exactly why so many of us are concerned that the Dems are running a well executed trap, and trump and his followers are falling right into it

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No one, and I mean NO ONE wants Trump as the nominee more than the left. Maga wants him because of their feels for the guy, but even that doesn't compare to the feels the left will have if Trump gets the nomination.

FireAg said:

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I think Biden is bad enough that a lot of people who say they can't stand Trump, when presented with 4 more years of the current nonsense as the alternative, will begrudgingly vote his way…all of them? Absolutely not…but enough that he is ahead in the polls going into Election Day, and he pulls out a victory that can't be stolen…

I could ABSOLUTELY BE WRONG, I fully admit that…but the polling data says this is a possibility…and a distinct possibility at that…

Time will tell, but I simply think it's foolish to be assuming something is "absolutely going to go down this way or that" when there are far too many variables in play still…

---

That's fair, but I think we should be playing the odds here to our advantage. There are two or three R candidates who don't have Trump's baggage that would perform better in a general election. To win, you have to pull votes from the middle. Why select a candidate who's been impeached twice and indicted four times? And is roughly 80 years old and past his prime?

Just looking at it without any emotional filters, it doesn't make sense to me.

I agree with you…problem is that most of the R electorate isn't paying attention to the alternatives because the alternatives aren't doing enough to grab their attention…yes, does that make most voters "dumb" or "ignorant"? You're damn right it does…

But that is the electorate in a nutshell…that's reality…and that's the inertia that the other candidates have failed to reverse…

It is what it is…

FireAg said:

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I agree with you…problem is that most of the R electorate isn't paying attention to the alternatives because the alternatives aren't doing enough to grab their attention…yes, does that make most voters "dumb" or "ignorant"? You're damn right it does…

But that is the electorate in a nutshell…that's reality…and that's the inertia that the other candidates have failed to reverse…

It is what it is…

---

Agree with all that, with an adder... I think the media and Dems are deliberately fanning the flames of Trump's candidacy because they WANT him in the news 24/7. It helps them rally their base. In that world it drowns out other R's seeking attention. I don't know if Ronald Reagan could outcompete that.

Will be interesting to see if something changes that dynamic. The lights are about to go on and all this prediction stuff will be in the rear view mirror. It' about to get real.

And that is the one point I disagree with folks on…the motivation to continue persecuting Trump…

Your theory might very well be right…

My theory is they were seeing trending in national internals early on that showed Biden becoming a real problem for 2024 versus Trump specifically, and they didn't think they could beat him the same way twice…so they needed to get him off the ballot some way…

But regardless of the reasons behind the polling and the persecution, Trump is likely the R nominee unless something truly drastic happens soon…

Ag with kids said:

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TRM said:

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Really the rate of change of inflation has decreased, but these use stuff like that to deceive people.

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Yep. Those higher prices are locked in right now. They're just not going even higher quite as fast right now.

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Statistics...
Let us say bread went up by $.50 in 2022.
And also went up by $.50 in 2023.
Does everyone here understand that the RATE of increase would be less in 2023?

Not statistics, but Calculus.

MemphisAg1 said:

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FireAg said:

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I agree with you…problem is that most of the R electorate isn't paying attention to the alternatives because the alternatives aren't doing enough to grab their attention…yes, does that make most voters "dumb" or "ignorant"? You're damn right it does…

But that is the electorate in a nutshell…that's reality…and that's the inertia that the other candidates have failed to reverse…

It is what it is…

---

Agree with all that, with an adder... I think the media and Dems are deliberately fanning the flames of Trump's candidacy because they WANT him in the news 24/7. It helps them rally their base. In that world it drowns out other R's seeking attention. I don't know if Ronald Reagan could outcompete that.

Will be interesting to see if something changes that dynamic. The lights are about to go on and all this prediction stuff will be in the rear view mirror. It' about to get real.

---

Agreed. Too many people want to view the indictments through one lens. I've always maintained they serve multiple purposes.

The indictments keep the MAGA base and a small percentage of non-MAGA conservatives riled up and engaged with Trump instead of potentially moving over to another candidate (with all due respect I'll list Hawg as an example of this voter). But that's not nearly as large a group as they think they are.

The indictments also keep the dyed in the wool libs engaged through fear of Trump, to make sure they turn out to vote against him if he is the R candidate

The indictments also turns off the independents and moderates in both parties as well. Insuring Trump may get the votes in the R primary but he won't get enough votes in the General to win.

The indictments potentially legally throw a huge wrench in the R's presidential aspirations if Trump does become the R candidate.

And finally the indictments are simply a way to attack and punish the Libs ultimate boogeyman.

These indictments opened up a whole host of positives for the Dems, not just one.

Looking at the latest national averages, both Haley and trump have extended their leads over Biden (each by a point or more), and DeSantis remains slightly ahead (but steady) of Biden...

I simply see no way the Ds can run Biden...he's going to lose no matter who the R nominee is, if things stay the same...

MemphisAg1 said:

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FireAg said:

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I think you're jaded…and I get why, but I think if Trump is the nominee, he is not convicted, and he does face Biden in the general next year…he WINS…

---

If he's the nominee I sure as hell hope he wins because I can't stand the thought of the likely Dem majority that results if he loses.

But I think you're looking thru rose-colored glasses. He has lost A LOT of support within the R party and independents. I was a strong Trump fan and now can't stand him. I can look beyond that feeling to recognize he's still better than the Dem alternative, but there are many who can not. Yeah, ole Joe's popularity has fallen but it's not enough to make Trump-lovers out of those who despise him. Btw, gas prices have fallen, inflation is trending lower, and interest rates appear to have peaked... all positive data points for Biden. Trump is the only serious candidate who can lose to Biden.

Sure, he can get the nomination but what good does that do when he loses the general election?

---

and let's not leave out the more in depth analysis

four years ago older people skewed more Republican. many have died off

can even the Diehard Trumpers claim that teenagers who were 10 when Trump first took office are now going to vote as a majority for him in their first presidential election?

Trump will likely lose the 18-24 year old vote by 30 points!

this is a dream scenario for every leftist and democrat

and they have been planning this since the winter of 2021.

one has to be an idiot not to see it.

of course keeping Trump in the limelight 24/7 takes away any publicity for better candidates

of course keeping Trump in the limelight 24/7 is good for media ratings

of course keeping Trump in the limelight 24/7 ensures the election will be about the Orange God King and his idiotic pronouncements, rather than the idiotic pronouncements of the incumbent Joe Biden.

I would argue that the "idiots" are the candidates (and their advisors) that didn't do MORE to steal some headlines…

They played the "Good Republican" campaign game and got zero traction…

They needed to do something far more headline worthy that would FORCE MSM to pay attention and give them ink…

Folks may not like the approach, but I don't know that there was another approach that would have any chance against the inertia they were facing…

FireAg said:

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LMCane said:

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what's going to be hilarious is the "memory hole" this entire thread gets pushed into after November 2024.

when everything that many of us claimed YEARS AHEAD OF TIME would happen,

the Trumpers will meekly protest

"well no one could have seen this happening when we nominated him!!"

---

I think you're jaded…and I get why, but I think if Trump is the nominee, he is not convicted, and he does face Biden in the general next year…he WINS…

Now that's a lot of "ifs"…absolutely concede that…

But it isn't outside the realm of possibility yet, and until it is, many of you are making assumptions based on assumptions…

That's been my point this entire time…

It's called "wish casting"…

---

I mean it's possible. Still the odds of Trump beating 91 charges in 4 different cases, 3 of which are in extremely hostile environments (NYC, DC, ATL) are not good. At all. It's far more likely he gets convicted in multiple cases as opposed to exonerated. I think eventually he likely gets them overturned on appeal but that will be long after November and thus irrelevant (unless he wins).

The point is the Dems have Trump check mated already. They have him with charges in friendly areas for them and have them timed exactly when they want them, that the cases will all hit in late Spring/early Summer. That's after the primaries are decided but before the General. At that point the GOP is screwed no matter what. Even if Trump is removed as the candidate it will split the Party and whomever they pick will be cooked.

Biden is just a patsy for the Dems, always has been. He's someone that they can and will dispose of but they will want to time it when it is most advantageous. They control the media and their voters are lemmings. Most of their votes are just banked anyway with the Dem GOTV operation and ballot harvesting. They know they will get theirs no matter who they put up. If Fetterman and Hobbs winning didn't prove that to you I don't know what else will.

If Trump is the nominee I will vote for him (not that my vote matters in Texas because if it DOES matter then Trump is losing anyway). If you want to tell me with a straight face that suddenly Trump is winning in the Swing states and we should just act as though nothing is going to change between now and November though I don't even know where to start.

I do agree with you though we may just be stuck anyway and Trump may be the nominee. I just really, really hope that doesn't happen because I feel extremely confident that it will end very badly if that is the case. If Trump somehow wins though and is a fraction of the conservative and gets a fraction of what some here think he will I will gladly celebrate. I felt the same way when he won in '16 after being a Cruz supporter, though I think that was a much more winnable election than this one will be.

Unless something drastic happens, this is what it's going to be…Trump will be the nominee…

And the opportunity to change this outcome goes back to my observations about the DeSantis campaign from before it even "launched" on Twitter…

He never did anything to make Joe American pay attention…he never did the things that would get the average moron voter talking about him…most cerebral types prefer DeSantis and for good reason…but his campaign simply hasn't done enough to translate itself to the ignorant masses…and that is why he is going to lose…

FireAg said:

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I would argue that the "idiots" are the candidates (and their advisors) that didn't do MORE to steal some headlines…

They played the "Good Republican" campaign game and got zero traction…

They needed to do something far more headline worthy that would FORCE MSM to pay attention and give them ink…

Folks may not like the approach, but I don't know that there was another approach that would have any chance against the inertia they were facing…

---

It's really hard to "steal headlines" when the MSM wants Trump and most of conservative media and talking heads want Trump. They choose the headlines. DeSantis did plenty of things that could have been headline worthy but if the media refuses to cover it there isn't much he can do. One of the more disgusting things about this cycle was how Trump and his minions colluded with the MSM to take out DeSantis. I never thought I would see folks like Tucker for instance going full Trump fanboy and not even giving DeSantis a mention. Same with so many others that praised DeSantis for years up until earlier this year. I expected that of the MSM but I certainly learned a lot about many "conservative" commentators this year. If anything the MSM has treated DeSantis more fairly.

Trump kicked off his first campaign coming down a golden escalator…

DeSantis built up a Twitter platform campaign launch and fumbled it…

Trump stated in the headlines by calling folks names that were catchy and repeat label…and obviously juvenile…but it gave folks something to talk about at the water cooler the next morning…. DeSantis (admirably) stays above such juvenile games, but it doesn't give the average dolt something to talk about the next day that is more interesting than the results from The Voice…

Trump had catchy slogans…lock her up, build the wall…blah blah blah…. He said outlandish thing like "maybe I'll close the borders to Muslims", or "maybe Ted's dad assassinated Kennedy"…it caught the attention of average people, and all of a sudden they were talking about him and what he said, and not who won The Voice…

DeSantis has done none of this…to his credit, you might argue? Perhaps…if we are talking about integrity…but we are talking about winning an election and doing so when you do not have commanding control of the vacuum chamber…

Again, what DeSantis has and hasn't done make him a good man…but because of the backward society we live in, his approach isn't going to win a national election for him…

We live in a society that, for some sick reason, likes to be grabbed by the (insert preferred genitalia here) so they have something to talk about, good or bad…but damn it…they're talking about it…

Anecdotal article that outlines both Trump's issues with women because he's generally a divisive, unlikeable clown, as well as the current challenge that Haley and DeSantis are encountering- until one of them decides to quit they are handing the nomination to Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/14/politics/iowa-republican-women-nikki-haley

Quote:

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Still, Sarcone said she could have one more change of heart if she saw clear evidence that DeSantis was gaining significant support.

"It would be Nikki Haley right now," Sarcone said. "I would fall on my sword and go caucus for DeSantis if it would really make a difference. If people were going to consolidate, I would go with DeSantis, but that's not what I'm seeing so far."

What she is seeing, Sarcone said, is still a Haley-DeSantis suburban split which she knows helps Trump. "That's the question, right? How do you get people to consolidate?"

---

FireAg said:

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Trump kicked off his first campaign coming down a golden escalator…

DeSantis built up a Twitter platform campaign launch and fumbled it…

Trump stated in the headlines by calling folks names that were catchy and repeat label…and obviously juvenile…but it gave folks something to talk about at the water cooler the next morning…. DeSantis (admirably) stays above such juvenile games, but it doesn't give the average dolt something to talk about the next day that is more interesting than the results from The Voice…

Trump had catchy slogans…lock her up, build the wall…blah blah blah…. He said outlandish thing like "maybe I'll close the borders to Muslims", or "maybe Ted's dad assassinated Kennedy"…it caught the attention of average people, and all of a sudden they were talking about him and what he said, and not who won The Voice…

DeSantis has done none of this…to his credit, you might argue? Perhaps…if we are talking about integrity…but we are talking about winning an election and doing so when you do not have commanding control of the vacuum chamber…

Again, what DeSantis has and hasn't done make him a good man…but because of the backward society we live in, his approach isn't going to win a national election for him…

We live in a society that, for some sick reason, likes to be grabbed by the (insert preferred genitalia here) so they have something to talk about, good or bad…but damn it…they're talking about it…

---

Well Trump has been a major celebrity since the '80s (Hell I got his Board game as a gag gift in High School and I'm old now). He had a popular reality TV show and was given 10x the coverage of everyone else because he is a celebrity. There is literally nothing that DeSantis can do or could do to out celebrity Trump. So if that was truly the ballgame certainly DeSantis had no shot. That said I think the ballgame was Trump getting so many in conservative media to go all in for him to such an extreme. It was just striking to hear how so many completely shifted on their axis for Trump.

Oh well, we still have a month before voting starts, we will see.

Ag with kids said:

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TRM said:

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Really the rate of change of inflation has decreased, but these use stuff like that to deceive people.

---

Yep. Those higher prices are locked in right now. They're just not going even higher quite as fast right now.

---

Which begs the question...will President DeathSanctimonius be able to turn back the hands of time, inflation-wise?

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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Anecdotal article that outlines both Trump's issues with women because he's generally a divisive, unlikeable clown, as well as the current challenge that Haley and DeSantis are encountering- until one of them decides to quit they are handing the nomination to Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/14/politics/iowa-republican-women-nikki-haley

Quote:

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Still, Sarcone said she could have one more change of heart if she saw clear evidence that DeSantis was gaining significant support.

"It would be Nikki Haley right now," Sarcone said. "I would fall on my sword and go caucus for DeSantis if it would really make a difference. If people were going to consolidate, I would go with DeSantis, but that's not what I'm seeing so far."

What she is seeing, Sarcone said, is still a Haley-DeSantis suburban split which she knows helps Trump. "That's the question, right? How do you get people to consolidate?"

---

---

I think this will be the highlighted during the speeches in Iowa. If you're ready to move on from Trump, if DeSantis leaves the race his voters will move to Trump not Haley defeating your goal.

Ron D is only "losing" in the tard fodder known as "polls".

In visible support, wins, and open discussions of policy...he's crushing it.

Quote:

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In visible support, wins, and open discussions of policy...he's crushing it.

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Hilarious.

What are the numbers for "visible" support for all the candidates? Lets start there. Please be specific. This is serious business.

It's becoming more and more evident that Trump and Nikki are working together and she is going to be his VP.

$30,000,000. Trump and Nikki Haley have now spent 30 million dollars attacking DeSantis. They have spent zero attacking each other. Again, $0.

Now they are trying to collude to debate each other and leave DeSantis out.

Here is the newest installment of Nikki attacking Ron. pic.twitter.com/68yXl8W72f

— HJoseph (@DontShedOnMe_1) December 15, 2023

aggie93 said:

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It's becoming more and more evident that Trump and Nikki are working together and she is going to be his VP.

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The dexterity of this board will be tested with the bending into pretzels required to justify that one.

aggie93 said:

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It's becoming more and more evident that Trump and Nikki are working together and she is going to be his VP.

$30,000,000. Trump and Nikki Haley have now spent 30 million dollars attacking DeSantis. They have spent zero attacking each other. Again, $0.

Now they are trying to collude to debate each other and leave DeSantis out.

Here is the newest installment of Nikki attacking Ron. pic.twitter.com/68yXl8W72f

— HJoseph (@DontShedOnMe_1) December 15, 2023

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If Trump really does finally find his old withered balls and come out of hiding to debate Nikki but not DeSantis that tells you everything you need to know.

And if Trump does pick Haley as his VP its going to be hilarious watching all the Trumpers on here crawfish yet again and claim how beautiful and perfect of a pick it is after months of acknowledging Haley is the neo-con establishment candidate.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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aggie93 said:

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It's becoming more and more evident that Trump and Nikki are working together and she is going to be his VP.

$30,000,000. Trump and Nikki Haley have now spent 30 million dollars attacking DeSantis. They have spent zero attacking each other. Again, $0.

Now they are trying to collude to debate each other and leave DeSantis out.

Here is the newest installment of Nikki attacking Ron. pic.twitter.com/68yXl8W72f

— HJoseph (@DontShedOnMe_1) December 15, 2023

---

If Trump really does finally find his old withered balls and come out of hiding to debate Nikki but not DeSantis that tells you everything you need to know.

And if Trump does pick Haley as his VP its going to be hilarious watching all the Trumpers on here crawfish yet again and claim how beautiful and perfect of a pick it is after months of acknowledging Haley is the neo-con establishment candidate.

---

No kidding. And given his age and McDonald's based diet the odds of him making it to 2028 are not great, so they'd basically be voting for her.

Quote:

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she is going to be his VP

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The mental gymnastics from a handful of posters here will be Olympic worthy.