TRM said:

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Not much new to glean from this. Trump has 49% of extremely enthusiastic support ~ 25% which seems to represent the Always Trump portion. Trump seems to have locked in 10% in solid support and the rest are open.

Surprised at the evangelical vote. I think that is probably where we can look for the most movement in the next month.

Looks like the IA debate winner will probably consolidate the vote between DeSantis and Haley.

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Forgot to mention this, but 1st time caucus goer support is large for Trump. Will the Trump campaign be able to turn them out on caucus night?

This highlights part of my concern on polling. This is the guy from Real Clear Politics talking about how amazing the polls are for Trump and how they are showing him dominating Biden. Ok. Well the problem is at some point it doesn't pass the smell test. It essentially is showing all of these loyal Dem groups suddenly going to Trump and loving everything about Trump. These are folks that hate him yet now we are supposed to believe they just love them some Trump.

Choose to believe what you will.

So I finally had the time to sit down and look at the questions below the headline in that WSJ poll and, um . . . wow.https://t.co/IThXEo48C8

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) December 11, 2023

Interesting. Essentially Trump tried to game the primary and may have screwed himself. It's going to end up as a low turnout Caucus and Haley is not eligible so it made it into a ground game battle.

Trump won’t be on Nevada’s primary ballet in February. It’s the result of a blatant attempt to rig the results — by Trump’s own supporters.

Let me explain 👇https://t.co/5WAtuJMSSf

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) December 10, 2023

Polls.

Bombshell @DMRegister poll today.

Des Moines Register/ Bloomberg
Iowa Caucus Poll, Jan 26-29 2016.

Trump: 28%
Cruz: 23%
Rubio: 15%
Carson: 10%
——
Results
(Winner) Cruz: 27%
Trump: 24%
Rubio: 23%

Totally wrong 2 DAYS before the vote. PollGate.

It’s time to expose polls. pic.twitter.com/xbbDN4Jff6

— Robert J Salvador (@RobertJSalvador) December 12, 2023

If this were true...why is this guy the only one repiorting it? I'd think more folks would have picked up on this...

There's this thing called "Margin of Error" (MOE)...Cruz was within the MOE (though just barely) going into the caucuses, and was able to make up the diestance plus a little room to spare... Cruz was down 5 points in the last poll and won by 3.3...so that's a roughly 8+ point swing... Noted...

I have no doubt that Iowa polls will change between now and Jan 15...they may even show DeSantis (or Haley) closing the gap on Trump in the next round...

Here's the statistical dilemma though...

Current numbers are:

Trump 51
DeSantis 19
Haley 16

That's a 32 point gap between 1st and 2nd... I have repeatedly said that for Iowa to be considered "close", and to account for a significant swing (backed by historical precedent), someone needs to be within 12 points of Trump in the last Des Moines Register poll (the one that everyone argues is the most accurate of the Iowa polls) going into the caucuses...

DeSantis is 32 points down right now, which means he needs to make up 20+ points in 34 days to feel like he's at least got an outside chance of pulling off the upset on January 15... 20+ points in 34 days is an extremely tall order... Impossible? Absolutely not... Highly improbable? It would be unprecedented in Iowa...

The swing between the last poll and caucus results in 2016 was 8-9 points...DeSantis needs a 33 point swing...Haley needs a 36 point swing, as things stand today...

Maybe some of you have enough blind faith to bet that he could do it at this point, but the smart money says he can't...

There's wishcasting and then there's reality...

The fly in the ointment is the Commit to Caucus sign ups. How can DeSantis have 41,000 of them and be polling lower than if all 41,000 (and no one else) votes?

I think that's the issue for me is there are so many things like that which simply don't add up. All the signs from the on the ground to debate performances say things should be going one way but the polls say the opposite. As someone who has followed Iowa since the '80s I just don't understand it.

That said I do think the constant poll narrative is taking a toll as well which is unfortunate. A lot of people like to follow the crowd. I've never been one of them. I've accepted that Trump is likely going to be the nominee but until the votes are cast I'm sure as hell going to hope that doesn't happen.

I think the biggest disappointment for me personally is how many Republicans just don't seem to care about holding anyone accountable for Covid and the lockdowns and fixing that problem. I just can't fathom how we went through all of that for years and it destroyed so many lives and damaged everyone in some way and yet people don't want an accounting for it at all. Trump literally will do nothing about that because it will shine light on his own failures (he's such a freaking coward btw for that). Of course I don't think that will matter anyway because if Trump is the nominee I think we see a Dem President and a massive sweep in Congress. I think George Soros is giddy with excitement and a lot of Republicans are just running as fast as they can into the trap.

FireAg said:

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If this were true...why is this guy the only one repiorting it? I'd think more folks would have picked up on this...

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Well first off Nevada is a ways off and most people expect this thing to be over by then. Second, good luck finding any criticism of the Trump campaign from conservative media or the MSM. They are waiting until he is the nominee to put Cheung and Loomer front and center and then people will go "WTF is this? Trump has complete lunatics running his campaign."

aggie93 said:

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Interesting. Essentially Trump tried to game the primary and may have screwed himself. It's going to end up as a low turnout Caucus and Haley is not eligible so it made it into a ground game battle.

Trump won’t be on Nevada’s primary ballet in February. It’s the result of a blatant attempt to rig the results — by Trump’s own supporters.

Let me explain 👇https://t.co/5WAtuJMSSf

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) December 10, 2023

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I guess I'm confused by this as I thought I remembered they just scrapped the primary when Trump's people forced them into a caucus. What is the point of Nevada's primary if they are then also having the caucus? Which one is deciding who gets the delegates?

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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aggie93 said:

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Interesting. Essentially Trump tried to game the primary and may have screwed himself. It's going to end up as a low turnout Caucus and Haley is not eligible so it made it into a ground game battle.

Trump won’t be on Nevada’s primary ballet in February. It’s the result of a blatant attempt to rig the results — by Trump’s own supporters.

Let me explain 👇https://t.co/5WAtuJMSSf

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) December 10, 2023

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I guess I'm confused by this as I thought I remembered they just scrapped the primary when Trump's people forced them into a caucus. What is the point of Nevada's primary if they are then also having the caucus? Which one is deciding who gets the delegates?

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The Caucus does, the Primary is meaningless. It's a terrible system and Trump set it up to rig it for himself but he may have screwed himself in the process.

it's obvious that the vast majority of Republican primary voters have no idea that Trump will go be on trial for yet another slew of felonies beginning March 4, 2024.

he is likely to be convicted of felonies before the general election.

but sure, he will beat the democrats and their billion dollars in campaign funds.

LMCane said:

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it's obvious that the vast majority of Republican primary voters have no idea that Trump will go be on trial for yet another slew of felonies beginning March 4, 2024.

he is likely to be convicted of felonies before the general election.

but sure, he will beat the democrats and their billion dollars in campaign funds.

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That's just it.

Most voters either aren't even knowledgeable enough about his trials or they aren't putting 2 + 2 together in order to see the big picture of the trap the Dems are luring the Reps into.

Sununu's an idiot.

FireAg said:

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There's this thing called "Margin of Error" (MOE)...Cruz was within the MOE (though just barely) going into the caucuses, and was able to make up the diestance plus a little room to spare... Cruz was down 5 points in the last poll and won by 3.3...so that's a roughly 8+ point swing... Noted...

I have no doubt that Iowa polls will change between now and Jan 15...they may even show DeSantis (or Haley) closing the gap on Trump in the next round...

Here's the statistical dilemma though...

Current numbers are:

Trump 51
DeSantis 19
Haley 16

That's a 32 point gap between 1st and 2nd... I have repeatedly said that for Iowa to be considered "close", and to account for a significant swing (backed by historical precedent), someone needs to be within 12 points of Trump in the last Des Moines Register poll (the one that everyone argues is the most accurate of the Iowa polls) going into the caucuses...

DeSantis is 32 points down right now, which means he needs to make up 20+ points in 34 days to feel like he's at least got an outside chance of pulling off the upset on January 15... 20+ points in 34 days is an extremely tall order... Impossible? Absolutely not... Highly improbable? It would be unprecedented in Iowa...

The swing between the last poll and caucus results in 2016 was 8-9 points...DeSantis needs a 33 point swing...Haley needs a 36 point swing, as things stand today...

Maybe some of you have enough blind faith to bet that he could do it at this point, but the smart money says he can't...

There's wishcasting and then there's reality...

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Wishcasting is probably correct. I do not understand completely the allure of Trump 2.0. Tucker Carlson said he was with him because of the persecution of the 93 indictments. Maybe getting indicted by Biden is worth $100 million in campaign ads....

"Think of how stupid the average person is... then realize that half of them are dumber than that...." / G Carlin

Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

Great Christmas gift idea for Trump folks here. I can't believe some of you really want more of this.

Dan Scott said:

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Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

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Problem is there is no path for Haley to beat Trump for the nomination. This is effectively Sununu endorsing Haley to be Trump's VP.

aggie93 said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

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Problem is there is no path for Haley to beat Trump for the nomination. This is effectively Sununu endorsing Haley to be Trump's VP.

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Sununu is also very much GOPe, and Haley is the GOPe candidate.

Dan Scott said:

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Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

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I think he just needs to get tougher with Trump, not necessarily more right of him. There's a good 15% of Trump's support that's persuadable, he needs to focus more on flipping them. Haley's support is too establishment. By being tougher on Trump that can earn him points in NH.

aggie93 said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

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Problem is there is no path for Haley to beat Trump for the nomination. This is effectively Sununu endorsing Haley to be Trump's VP.

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She doesn't have a full slate of delgates either. Trump and DeSantis are the only ones that have.

Dan Scott said:

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Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

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Frustrating, but always seemed like a good possibility given his disagreements with some of DeSantis' Disney and other decisions. Still, path for him is the same assuming Haley is still in - win Iowa, survive NH and SC and then hope momentum from an Iowa win can carry him in Nevada and then lead into the rest of the early states.

Definitely not helpful to still be splitting votes, you'd think Sununu would be smart enough to see that.

Why does anyone outside of the candidates themselves abd their teams care what polls say? Why would anyone alter their vote choice based on polls, regardless of whether they are valid or not? Just vote for the candidate you like best. My vote choice isn't malleable or affected by what someone else thinks. I will always vote based on who I think will implement the most conservative, constititionally-based policies that allow me to keep more of what I earn, strengthen the economy, and leave me the F alone. Policy is all that matters. Results.

Sununu endorsement is a bummer but it was also a risk. The moment he would have gotten it you would have seen Trump and every one of his influencers going nuts calling DeSantis the Establishment candidate. This works against that argument. Makes NH very tough for him though.

TRM said:

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Sununu's an idiot.

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I can't imagine that Haley is dumb enough to hitch her wagon to Trump's anchor chain. would 'birdbrain" go with the guy who insulted her at every opportunity?

she believes she can take over MAGA after Trump is soundly beaten.

but at that point, even the dead enders will recognize that Trumpism is poison at the ballot box.

I don't see Trumpers backing Haley in 2028.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Well that one hurts. Sununu wants to a R not Trump. He went with the hottest person. New Hampshire is tough for Ron. To win in Iowa, he has to go more right than Trump, but that loses him NH.

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Frustrating, but always seemed like a good possibility given his disagreements with some of DeSantis' Disney and other decisions. Still, path for him is the same assuming Haley is still in - win Iowa, survive NH and SC and then hope momentum from an Iowa win can carry him in Nevada and then lead into the rest of the early states.

Definitely not helpful to still be splitting votes, you'd think Sununu would be smart enough to see that.

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even we forget Trump will still be on trial during Super Tuesday primaries

it makes sense for DeSantis to keep running as hard as possible all the way through the summer- who knows what can happen with Trump's health or when he is convicted.

he needs to finish in second place in delegates.

Thaddeus Beauregard said:

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Why does anyone outside of the candidates themselves abd their teams care what polls say? Why would anyone alter their vote choice based on polls, regardless of whether they are valid or not? Just vote for the candidate you like best. My vote choice isn't malleable or affected by what someone else thinks. I will always vote based on who I think will implement the most conservative, constititionally-based policies that allow me to keep more of what I earn, strengthen the economy, and leave me the F alone. Policy is all that matters. Results.

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because Americans are sheeple ("let's hide in our houses for two years to stop the flu!!")

and also bandwagoners ("hey the local team is winning games I will go watch them play now!!")

so no one likes to be on a losing side, and everyone wants to be on a winning side.

which is why the Trumpers are giddy over beating DeSantis. maybe not even caring about getting beat down and losing the country to the democrats afterward.

it's like TCU fans, where everyone was amazed to beat Michigan

so it didn't matter they then lost to Georgia 65-7

Quote:

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Former President Donald Trump's support among black Americans is surging ahead of the 2024 election, polling from GenForward shows.
The black vote is a key demographic that has heavily favored Democrats for the past 50 years. Trump won 8 percent of black voters in 2020.
GenForward polling found:

• 17 percent of black Americans currently support Trump
• 20 percent of black Americans said they would vote for "someone else" other than Trump or Biden

Trump also increased support among Hispanics from the 2020 cycle by 4 points:

• 36 percent of Latinos support Trump.

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Quote:

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"It is possible, and we've seen it before, that a higher number, in particular Black men because of a kind of hypermasculinity of Donald Trump, could vote for Trump [again]," the founder and director of the GenForward project and University of Chicago political science professor Cathy Cohen told Politico.

The poll surveyed 3,448 eligible voters from November 830 with a 3-point margin of error.

Meanwhile, polling shows President Joe Biden has a growing problem with retaining the support of black and Hispanic voters. New York Times/Siena College polling in November found the president's support among nonwhite voters sank 33 points compared to 2020 election results:

[ol]

Only 72 percent of black voters support Biden, along with only 47 percent of Hispanic voters.

Democrats lost ground among black and Hispanic voters in nearly every election in the last ten years.

Biden is in the worst position among nonwhite voters since Walter Mondale in 1984.

[/ol]

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Mondale? That's a blast from the past.

Quote:

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Drilling down, Nate Cohn, the New York Times' chief political analyst, analyzed the rapid decline of Biden's support among nonwhite voters and how Trump could benefit from the desertions:

Quote:

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Overall, Mr. Biden leads by 81-8 among Black voters who turned out in 2022, but by just 62-14 among those who skipped the midterm elections. Similarly, he leads by 53-33 among Hispanics who voted in the midterms, compared with just a 42-37 lead among those who did not vote.

The survey finds evidence that a modest but important 5 percent of nonwhite Biden voters now support Mr. Trump, including 8 percent of Hispanic voters who say they backed Mr. Biden in 2020.

Beyond voters who have flipped to Mr. Trump, a large number of disaffected voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 now say they're undecided or simply won't vote this time around. As a consequence, his weakness is concentrated among less engaged voters on the periphery of politics, who have not consistently voted in recent elections and who may decide to stay home next November.

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LINK

Just another data point. Accuracy TBD.

I hate pieces like this. Winning an extra 20% of 1/8th of the electorate is not great when you've lost 5-10% of 2/3rds of the electorate.

Buyer's remorse will be a factor this time…

Mean tweets cost less at the pump and in the grocery stores…

Think a lot of folks are also starting to back off the sustainable/green energy farce…

It's my gig. Gathering data points and trying to connect the dots.

That's all I've been trying to do this whole time, but to some that makes me MAGA and a…what was that term?

Oh yeah…"poll troll"…

Catchy but ignorant…

Speaking of data points:

Quote:

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Political opinion polls show that the presidential race is very close. The Reuters/Ipsos poll out today has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden 38-36 with 26% undecided.

But the poll also carries troubling news for Trump. If he's convicted of a felony, 31% of Republicans wouldn't vote for him in November 2024.

That's an improvement over the 52% of Republicans who said in August that they wouldn't vote for Trump if he was convicted. Or is it? The whole hypothetical question of whether Trump will lose support among Republicans if he's convicted is loaded. And the fact that the pollster got two entirely different responses shows the idiocy of asking it.

The real question is what voters think of the trials being conducted trying to convict Trump of a variety of crimes. Only 25% of Republican voters believe the charges against Trump, while most believe them to be politically motivated.

If that's the case, how is it that 31% of Republicans won't vote for Trump if he's convicted on supposedly bogus charges?

Trump will receive 90-93% of the Republican vote as he did in 2016 and 2020 whether he is convicted or not.

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Quote:

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Biden has another challenge, and the Reuters poll shows how serious it could be. Robert F. Kennedy may be a political gadfly but the Kennedy name still resonates with many in America, and RFK's constant advocacy against most vaccines has kept his name in front of the voters.
Reuters:

Quote:

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The poll showed that Kennedy, part of the storied political family, could draw more support from Biden than Trump.

Trump's lead widened to a 5-point advantage nationally when respondents were given an option to vote for Kennedy.

Some 16% of respondents picked Kennedy when given the option, while Trump had 36% support, compared to 31% for Biden. Trump also led Biden by five points in the seven swing states when Kennedy was as option.

Kennedy, whose uncle John F. Kennedy served as president and whose father, Robert, was a senator and attorney general, faces a challenge to amass enough signatures to get on the ballot on all 50 states. Last week, a super PAC fundraising committee backing Kennedy's bid said it would spend up to $15 million to get Kennedy on the ballot in 10 states as a starting measure.

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Get after it RFK, Jr.

Quote:

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But once again, there may be a hidden wellspring of support for Trump as there was in 2016. It's even more unpopular to say you're for Trump in 2024 than it was then or in 2020. People telling pollsters one thing and meaning another has become commonplace, and pollsters have yet to figure out how to factor in voters' deceit when tabulating their data.

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The 2024 version of the reluctant Trump voter?

LINK