aggie93 said:

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This is long but it is basically the same picture I see. I see little fault in the logic or timeline. Hoping others can see this as well.

The Democrats are running a psyop on GOP voters & we're walking right into their trap. Bookmark this handy guide to watch it go down in 2024.

Now - Consolidate GOP voter support behind Trump by convincing republicans with manipulated polls that Trump can easily beat Biden.…

— Tara Servatius (@TaraServatius) December 10, 2023

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Absolutely what's happening and the sad thing is I think more than a few Trump supporters want this to happen because they honestly desire a second Civil War and think this will spark it.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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PA24 said:

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Ron knows he screwed up, needs to bend the knee to MAGA founder much like Ramaswampy did in the debates.

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You do realize that by now we all know you're just trolling, right?

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Hey easy there. This is the sock I use to discredit Trump and his followers. It takes time and effort to create and maintain the stereotypical rural, uneducated, cartoonish, persona that MSM uses to portray anyone to the right of Jimmy Carter.

So why is Haley aligning herself with these Dem billionaires to do that?

aggiehawg said:

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So why is Haley aligning herself with these Dem billionaires to do that?

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First off she needs the money. She barely was able to raise anything early on in her campaign and was all but left for dead. She decided to pivot to the Traditional/Chamber of Commerce Republican who crosses over to the Dems because it is all about business. So social issues and immigration are tossed aside. She is very pro Ukraine/America Power which gets the Defense contractors backing her. There are also a lot of Dem Wall Street types that don't like the AOC/Bernie types and want someone they can buy and keep up the crony capitalism gravy train.

Haley is someone who has always blown with the wind and is up for sale. She doesn't have a job currently either so her consolation prize if Trump wins is a Cabinet position or maybe his VP. Outside of the "Bird brain" comments Trump has been very soft on Haley. She's also great at playing the "strong woman" who is also a victim card, Vivek actually did a great job of scorching her on that in the last debate.

aggie93 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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So why is Haley aligning herself with these Dem billionaires to do that?

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First off she needs the money. She barely was able to raise anything early on in her campaign and was all but left for dead. She decided to pivot to the Traditional/Chamber of Commerce Republican who crosses over to the Dems because it is all about business. So social issues and immigration are tossed aside. She is very pro Ukraine/America Power which gets the Defense contractors backing her. There are also a lot of Dem Wall Street types that don't like the AOC/Bernie types and want someone they can buy and keep up the crony capitalism gravy train.

Haley is someone who has always blown with the wind and is up for sale. She doesn't have a job currently either so her consolation prize if Trump wins is a Cabinet position or maybe his VP. Outside of the "Bird brain" comments Trump has been very soft on Haley. She's also great at playing the "strong woman" who is also a victim card, Vivek actually did a great job of scorching her on that in the last debate.

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Vivek exposed her, ended her career.


DeSantis is also on the way out

DeSantis speaks about kneecapping ESG: Blackrock “had $2 billion under management in our [state] pension. I took it away from Blackrock.”

DeSantis beat Blackrock. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley sat down with their woke CEO Larry Fink this week to bankroll her campaign. pic.twitter.com/IvrtTYSUSq

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) November 17, 2023

Sr Advisor to Trump on Crime. Awesome.

If he was black, he woulda been shot dead. https://t.co/SK6rbaKQv4

— Dr.Darrell Scott (@PastorDScott) December 11, 2023

"Top men" continues...

Latest Des Moines Register Poll

Trump 51%
DeSantis 19%
Haley 16%

35 days to the Iowa Caucuses...

Quote:

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The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted Dec. 2-7 of 502 likely Republican caucusgoers, and it has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points

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So any post debate bump would not be picked up by this poll, if I am reading that correctly?

Typically the DM Register is a good poll. Really strange timing and a small sample. I still can't figure out how DeSantis can have 41k people who have committed to Caucus for him which should be 22-29% of the vote in Iowa yet he is at 19%. Trump has pulled his ads in Iowa too. Turnout has been huge at DeSantis events and Trump has had a lot of empty seats. It's just weird.

Factors in the Newsom debate, but it does not capture the 4th RNC primary debate...

There is a bump in the data for DeSantis...3 points...most likely from his Newsom debate performance...

Problem is...Trump got an 8 point boost during that same span...So DeSantis spiked up a little, but Trump extended his overall lead even further...

I don't think the 4th RNC debate is going to move the needle..but we will see...

aggie93 said:

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Typically the DM Register is a good poll. Really strange timing and a small sample. I still can't figure out how DeSantis can have 41k people who have committed to Caucus for him which should be 22-29% of the vote in Iowa yet he is at 19%. Trump has pulled his ads in Iowa too. Turnout has been huge at DeSantis events and Trump has had a lot of empty seats. It's just weird.

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What I had always thought, as well. That they really had their process down and knew their people and how to reach them to get the broadest demographics.

But I am very surprised by the numbers for the first time caucus goers (typically younger) going towards Trump. That indicates to me Trump is expanding his support within that demographic.

Agree, it is weird. Then again, Trump has always defied political conventional wisdom.

It's probably time to pull this thread in favor of a "Haley versus Trump" thread. As much as I support the guy, DeSantis is starting to look like toast. He has the near-crazed MAGA fringe almost universally aligned against him on one side, and the Rino/neocon group aligned against him on the other.

I will wait and see how the actually voting turns out, but unless Trump has a stroke or something, DeSantis just seems to have no path left to the nomination.

FireAg said:

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Factors in the Newsom debate, but it does not capture the 4th RNC primary debate...

There is a bump in the data for DeSantis...3 points...most likely from his Newsom debate performance...

Problem is...Trump got an 8 point boost during that same span...So DeSantis spiked up a little, but Trump extended his overall lead even further...

I don't think the 4th RNC debate is going to move the needle..but we will see...

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LOL. I had already forgotten about the DeSantis/Newsom debate as a factor. Thanks for the reminder.

northeastag said:

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It's probably time to pull this thread in favor of a "Haley versus Trump" thread. As much as I support the guy, DeSantis is starting to look like toast. He has the near-crazed MAGA fringe almost universally aligned against him on one side, and the Rino/neocon group aligned against him on the other.

I will wait and see how the actually voting turns out, but unless Trump has a stroke or something, DeSantis just seems to have no path left to the nomination.

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Nationally, Haley and DeSantis are now in a dead heat, and though he has the edge by 3 pts in Iowa, Haley is running away from DeSantis in New Hampshire…for 2nd place…

Must be our weekly poll trolling day.

aggie93 said:

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Typically the DM Register is a good poll. Really strange timing and a small sample. I still can't figure out how DeSantis can have 41k people who have committed to Caucus for him which should be 22-29% of the vote in Iowa yet he is at 19%. Trump has pulled his ads in Iowa too. Turnout has been huge at DeSantis events and Trump has had a lot of empty seats. It's just weird.

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it's not weird when you understand the media has one objective which is to nominate Trump as a sacrificial lamb against the democrat nominee

let's see how the DMR poll looks in their last one before the election- the one that ACTUALLY counts.

You're going to be sorely disappointed my friend…

The writing is on the wall for DeSantis, and just slightly less for Haley…

aggiehawg said:

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aggie93 said:

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Typically the DM Register is a good poll. Really strange timing and a small sample. I still can't figure out how DeSantis can have 41k people who have committed to Caucus for him which should be 22-29% of the vote in Iowa yet he is at 19%. Trump has pulled his ads in Iowa too. Turnout has been huge at DeSantis events and Trump has had a lot of empty seats. It's just weird.

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What I had always thought, as well. That they really had their process down and knew their people and how to reach them to get the broadest demographics.

But I am very surprised by the numbers for the first time caucus goers (typically younger) going towards Trump. That indicates to me Trump is expanding his support within that demographic.

Agree, it is weird. Then again, Trump has always defied political conventional wisdom.

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Another thing that just is odd to me. If this poll is accurate the only real movement was Scott dropped out and virtually all of his support went to Trump. That's just y weird. If anything I would think those votes would go Haley or DeSantis or maybe Christie, Scott voters tended to hate Trump because Scott's entire message was civility and let's be nice to each other.

I have said before this is typically the best poll in Iowa and maybe it is, it's just none of this makes sense at all. Iowa Caucus goers are also famous for bucking national trends and voting for whomever they want, this would mean that's out the window and they are consolidating on Trump in spite of him spending so little time in the state compared to everyone else. I mean it's possible.




This post by Deace this morning makes the most sense to me, it's too long to post here. It talks about the concern for Trump and DeSantis around these polls and why we should all be cautious. For Trump it is the fact his DC Trial starts right before Super Tuesday and how even though it is wrong he will almost certainly be convicted a month later after the nomination is baked in and how there seems to be no plan for what impact that will have from a GOP perspective. For DeSantis it's about how he can overcome the narrative around these polls. It does feel like a giant psy op but maybe it isn't. We will know a lot more in 35 days.

With the release of the latest Iowa Poll, and the Caucuses now just 35 days away, I think it is time to have a blunt conversation about the state of things. Not just Iowa, but beyond. And I'm going to tell you what I really think, because that's what I do.

— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) December 11, 2023

Many have continued to discount what's actually going on here because it is fairly unprecedented…

Trump, due to name recognition, is being treated by the masses like an incumbent…when he talks, it is covered far and wide…

It is an echo chamber, and few are able to get their voice heard consistently…

Again, this all comes back to how DeSantis has run his campaign from the very beginning…. He doesn't grab headlines…he doesn't do/say things that demand the spotlight be turned on him…

DeSantis is probably the best candidate out there…best candidate in a long time…when it comes to platform and principles…

But nobody cares because most of America is too lazy to go read up on him…they listen to whomever is the loudest…we may not agree with it, but this is how it is, and this is why the inertia is too great to overcome without stealing some headlines…

I am confused about that second screenshot of the polls? Dec 22-26? WTH?

They DM Register screwed up the graphic. Copied and pasted from the October poll, changed the month but not the date.

The PAC has pulled it's ads, but Trump campaign is still airing.

TRM said:

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They DM Register screwed up the graphic. Copied and pasted from the October poll, changed the month but not the date.

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Oh, thanks. Well, that's embarassing for them.

FireAg said:

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Many have continued to discount what's actually going on here because it is fairly unprecedented…

Trump, due to name recognition, is being treated by the masses like an incumbent…when he talks, it is covered far and wide…

It is an echo chamber, and few are able to get their voice heard consistently…

Again, this all comes back to how DeSantis has run his campaign from the very beginning…. He doesn't grab headlines…he doesn't do/say things that demand the spotlight be turned on him…

DeSantis is probably the best candidate out there…best candidate in a long time…when it comes to platform and principles…

But nobody cares because most of America is too lazy to go read up on him…they listen to whomever is the loudest…we may not agree with it, but this is how it is, and this is why the inertia is too great to overcome without stealing some headlines…

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I have conceded that is entirely possible many times. I just have never seen a cycle where I keep seeing more and more people I know moving to DeSantis with very little enthusiasm for Trump yet it isn't showing up in the polls. I've been voting for a long time and have backed those who lost before, been following elections closely since the 80s. I've just never seen such a disconnect.

That said every cycle is a little different, we will find out soon enough.

If DeSantis can't get 30% in Iowa after all his time and effort put in there, then Trump's the nominee barring some unforseen health or legal disaster.

At this point it doesn't look good. If Haley and DeSantis could agree to run together that might curtail the Trump train but that's as likely as me winning the lotto.

Look's like a lot of us will be holding our noses and voting for Trump next February

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Many have continued to discount what's actually going on here because it is fairly unprecedented…

Trump, due to name recognition, is being treated by the masses like an incumbent…when he talks, it is covered far and wide…

It is an echo chamber, and few are able to get their voice heard consistently…

Again, this all comes back to how DeSantis has run his campaign from the very beginning…. He doesn't grab headlines…he doesn't do/say things that demand the spotlight be turned on him…

DeSantis is probably the best candidate out there…best candidate in a long time…when it comes to platform and principles…

But nobody cares because most of America is too lazy to go read up on him…they listen to whomever is the loudest…we may not agree with it, but this is how it is, and this is why the inertia is too great to overcome without stealing some headlines…

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I have conceded that is entirely possible many times. I just have never seen a cycle where I keep seeing more and more people I know moving to DeSantis with very little enthusiasm for Trump yet it isn't showing up in the polls. I've been voting for a long time and have backed those who lost before, been following elections closely since the 80s. I've just never seen such a disconnect.

That said every cycle is a little different, we will find out soon enough.

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To me it's all basically a momentum question. From a polling standpoint, DeSantis is still a relative unknown when you compare him to someone with 100% name recognition like Trump, so to me it leads many people just defaulting to what they know.

If DeSantis' ground game works and he wins Iowa, it's a completely new ballgame because there will be a realistic alternative who is now "grabbing headlines" like FireAg keeps talking about, but instead of grabbing them by making unhinged asinine statements like Trump, he would be grabbing them by winning Iowa.

Of course this is also all dependent on Haley realizing she is only helping Trump get elected and dropping out in time, which seems less likely every day.

Alternatively, if DeSantis loses Iowa this is all pretty much over and congrats to the Dems on their landslide wins in November.

Not much new to glean from this. Trump has 49% of extremely enthusiastic support ~ 25% which seems to represent the Always Trump portion. Trump seems to have locked in 10% in solid support and the rest are open.

Surprised at the evangelical vote. I think that is probably where we can look for the most movement in the next month.

Looks like the IA debate winner will probably consolidate the vote between DeSantis and Haley.

Quote:

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Polls continue to show Donald Trump with a massive lead over his competition for the Republican presidential nomination. Yet, many of his opponents continue to hold their fire against the former president. They may be doing so in hopes of eliminating all their non-Trump competition before taking on Trump himself.

The problem with this plan is that it won't work. Trump's rivals have to do something different to knock him off his perch. Unlike in 2016, when there were signs that he could be defeated in a one-on-one contest (which never actually happened), Trump holds major advantages this time around.

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Quote:

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This is very different from where we were at this point in the 2016 cycle. Trump was getting somewhere around 25% to 30% of the GOP vote nationally.

Additionally, it's not at all clear that any of his 2024 rivals can unite the Republican primary voters not supporting Trump. Consider a Marquette University Law School poll from last month.

Trump corralled 57% of the vote in this national survey when matched up against all of his GOP competitors. When facing just DeSantis, Trump's support jumped to 65%. When matched up with just Haley, he got to 70% of the vote.

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Quote:

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We didn't see such numbers in 2016, when Trump was on his way to locking up the GOP nomination. As late as March 2016, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found Trump trailing both Marco Rubio (51% to 45%) and Ted Cruz (54% to 41%) in hypothetical one-on-one polling.

That is, there was a legitimate argument back then for Trump's rivals hoping to become the last candidate standing against him. Today, it doesn't make much sense.

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Quote:

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One of the best ways to gauge a candidate's ceiling of support is to look at their "favorable" and "very favorable" ratings. The latter, especially, is important in a primary when most of the candidates share the same party label as the voters and are liked.

Trump's "very favorable" rating was 51% among Republicans in last month's Marquette poll. His "favorable" rating has recently averaged 76% among Republicans nationally.

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Quote:

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No other Republican candidate has a favorability rating that high among the party base. No other Republican has a "very favorable" rating that was even half as high as Trump's was in the Marquette survey.

These numbers hold in Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump has the best "favorable" ratings of any candidate among GOP voters. (In Iowa, he also has the best "very favorable" ratings. No poll asked about "very favorable" ratings in the Granite State.)

Trump's numbers were considerably weaker at this point in the 2016 cycle. His "favorable" ratings were 15 to 20 points lower, depending on the poll. His "very favorable" ratings were 20 to 30 points lower.
It's hard to believe, but a November 2015 Bloomberg survey showed numerous other Republican candidates and former President George W. Bush with stronger favorable and very favorable ratings among Republican voters. Trump even had worse favorable ratings than Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney.

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LINK

Histporically speaking, those are some very robust tailwinds or Trump in the primary this go around.

Quote:

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Surprised at the evangelical vote. I think that is probably where we can look for the most movement in the next month.

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In 2016 South Carolina primary, Trump was winning counties that had gone for Huckabee four years ealier. When I heard that, really raised my eyebrows back then too.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Polls continue to show Donald Trump with a massive lead over his competition for the Republican presidential nomination. Yet, many of his opponents continue to hold their fire against the former president. They may be doing so in hopes of eliminating all their non-Trump competition before taking on Trump himself.

The problem with this plan is that it won't work. Trump's rivals have to do something different to knock him off his perch. Unlike in 2016, when there were signs that he could be defeated in a one-on-one contest (which never actually happened), Trump holds major advantages this time around.

---

Quote:

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This is very different from where we were at this point in the 2016 cycle. Trump was getting somewhere around 25% to 30% of the GOP vote nationally.

Additionally, it's not at all clear that any of his 2024 rivals can unite the Republican primary voters not supporting Trump. Consider a Marquette University Law School poll from last month.

Trump corralled 57% of the vote in this national survey when matched up against all of his GOP competitors. When facing just DeSantis, Trump's support jumped to 65%. When matched up with just Haley, he got to 70% of the vote.

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Quote:

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We didn't see such numbers in 2016, when Trump was on his way to locking up the GOP nomination. As late as March 2016, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found Trump trailing both Marco Rubio (51% to 45%) and Ted Cruz (54% to 41%) in hypothetical one-on-one polling.

That is, there was a legitimate argument back then for Trump's rivals hoping to become the last candidate standing against him. Today, it doesn't make much sense.

---

Quote:

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One of the best ways to gauge a candidate's ceiling of support is to look at their "favorable" and "very favorable" ratings. The latter, especially, is important in a primary when most of the candidates share the same party label as the voters and are liked.

Trump's "very favorable" rating was 51% among Republicans in last month's Marquette poll. His "favorable" rating has recently averaged 76% among Republicans nationally.

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Quote:

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No other Republican candidate has a favorability rating that high among the party base. No other Republican has a "very favorable" rating that was even half as high as Trump's was in the Marquette survey.

These numbers hold in Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump has the best "favorable" ratings of any candidate among GOP voters. (In Iowa, he also has the best "very favorable" ratings. No poll asked about "very favorable" ratings in the Granite State.)

Trump's numbers were considerably weaker at this point in the 2016 cycle. His "favorable" ratings were 15 to 20 points lower, depending on the poll. His "very favorable" ratings were 20 to 30 points lower.
It's hard to believe, but a November 2015 Bloomberg survey showed numerous other Republican candidates and former President George W. Bush with stronger favorable and very favorable ratings among Republican voters. Trump even had worse favorable ratings than Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney.

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LINK

Histporically speaking, those are some very robust tailwinds or Trump in the primary this go around.

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This is true if those polls are true. It's also true that while I will hope for the best I am going to do everything I can personally to prepare for a Dem wipeout of the GOP in November if Trump is the nominee, I really can't realistically see any other scenario.

I don't trust any of the polls right now and after the last few cycles with bigger and bigger misses (meaning 2020 and 2022) it's not like the "oops, well I guess the polls were wrong" thing is going to surprise anyone.

If Trump is leading the D contender by more than the MOE going into next November, they won't be able to steal it like they did the last time...

As some national pundits have started to recognize, Trump can win next November, if he stays on the current path, and if the D's don't replace Biden with a truly viable candidate... I think they were really warming to the idea that Newsom could answer the bell, but not after that last debate performance... One name that would scare the hell outta me? Michelle Obama...

But I do think the politcal commentary is going to start to shift in January to who will the Ds use to replace Biden with on the D ticket? I will be SHOCKED if they let Brandon see this thing through...

FireAg said:

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If Trump is leading the D contender by more than the MOE going into next November, they won't be able to steal it like they did the last time..

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He won't be.

I know you love polls and believe they are 100% true and accurate, but you're being fed intentional misinformation.

To think that Trump will be 5-10+ ahead of Biden is ludicrous, and it won't be Biden anyway, especially if the Democrats think there is an even 0.1% chance of him losing to Trump. It also doesn't matter what a popular vote poll says because the election will be decided in half a dozen swing states, assuming it is even remotely close.

The polls showing Trump smoking Biden are as dumb as the one which popped up the other day which had Haley up 17 points on Biden.

FireAg said:

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If Trump is leading the D contender by more than the MOE going into next November, they won't be able to steal it like they did the last time...

As some national pundits have started to recognize, Trump can win next November, if he stays on the current path, and if the D's don't replace Biden with a truly viable candidate... I think they were really warming to the idea that Newsom could answer the bell, but not after that last debate performance... One name that would scare the hell outta me? Michelle Obama...

But I do think the politcal commentary is going to start to shift in January to who will the Ds use to replace Biden with on the D ticket? I will be SHOCKED if they let Brandon see this thing through...

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If Trump gets convicted of multiple felonies and the MSM starts putting Steve Cheung and Laura Loomer out front along with Trump's insane ramblings on Truth he is going to be completely destroyed. That's of course assuming they don't switch out Biden and then make the race all about how we don't need another 80 year old President.

Polls a year out are completely meaningless. They can also be easily manipulated and most are run by Lefitists. There are probably more examples of them being wrong than right. That's before you start accounting for how elections are actually done today with ballot harvesting and GOTV operations. Trump has none of that and it's probably at least 5 point handicap. He also has far less enthusiasm going for him than last time and very little money so I don't know how he fixes that problem.

Looks like the GOP is determined so far though to FAFO while the Dems are laughing at us.