YokelRidesAgain said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

---

If there is a recession between now and Labor Day 2024, Trump would be heavily favored to beat Biden. His chances would be closer to 100% than 0.0%.

When it comes to politics, speaking in absolutes is rarely wise.

---

Wrong.

there was the highest inflation in nearly 40 years in October 2022...

and President Biden and the democrats STILL BEAT the @#$@ out of Trump candidates and the GOP around the country.

how can you just ignore this?

We had a recession, they just refused to call it one. Reality check: they still won't

aggie93 said:

---

Money. DeSantis has a lot more money and a lot more donors than Trump and has no legal issues to drain him.

---

Trump almost certainly isn't as rich as he claims, but he is still worth BILLIONS of dollars. He's not going to spend his own money if he can get the MAGA hats to give it to him, but given that winning this election or not could affect whether he ends up going to prison, I don't think he's going to let money stand in the way.

Ever think your passion for DeSantis would be better served as a volunteer for his campaign, banging on doors as part of his massive ground game rather than trying to convince less than a dozen people on TexAgs that you're right and they're wrong?

Your passion is truly admirable, but I think it's wasted on such a niche community forum...

LMCane said:

---

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

---

If there is a recession between now and Labor Day 2024, Trump would be heavily favored to beat Biden. His chances would be closer to 100% than 0.0%.

When it comes to politics, speaking in absolutes is rarely wise.

---

Wrong.

there was the highest inflation in nearly 40 years in October 2022...

and President Biden and the democrats STILL BEAT the @#$@ out of Trump candidates and the GOP around the country.

how can you just ignore this?

---

Historically, recessions in the first two years of the President's term don't seem to matter much.

Again, I am not arguing that Trump will likely be favored in 2024. I just don't think DeSantis will do much, if any, better. For what little the current polls are worth, they support my position. The RCP averages today are Biden 45-Trump 43 and Biden 44-DeSantis 38.7.

Or pay for their criminal defense.

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

LMCane said:

---

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

---

If there is a recession between now and Labor Day 2024, Trump would be heavily favored to beat Biden. His chances would be closer to 100% than 0.0%.

When it comes to politics, speaking in absolutes is rarely wise.

---

Wrong.

there was the highest inflation in nearly 40 years in October 2022...

and President Biden and the democrats STILL BEAT the @#$@ out of Trump candidates and the GOP around the country.

how can you just ignore this?

---

Historically, recessions in the first two years of the President's term don't seem to matter much.

Again, I am not arguing that Trump will likely be favored in 2024. I just don't think DeSantis will do much, if any, better. For what little the current polls are worth, they support my position. The RCP averages today are Biden 45-Trump 43 and Biden 44-DeSantis 38.7.

---

Taking a look at the polls on 538 since Aug 15, they are showing Biden 42-Trump 42, and Biden 39-DeSantis 36...

Quote:

---

Taking a look at the polls on 538 since Aug 15, they are showing Biden 42-Trump 42, and Biden 39-DeSantis 36...

---

Likely Trump voters who say they won't vote for DeSantis if he beats Trump for the nom but will come around and vote for him when it comes time.

I would predict a DeSantis over Biden somewhere in the 52/48 range if he gets the nom.

AggieUSMC said:

---

Quote:

---

Taking a look at the polls on 538 since Aug 15, they are showing Biden 42-Trump 42, and Biden 39-DeSantis 36...

---

Likely Trump voters who say they won't vote for DeSantis if he beats Trump for the nom but will come around and vote for him when it comes time.

I would predict a DeSantis over Biden somewhere in the 52/48 range if he gets the nom.

---

It's entirely possible, but the data to date simply don't support that conclusion...

Most of these polls show a much higher percentage of "undecided" votes when pitting DeSantis vs Biden head-to-head...

It could mean that more "pro-Biden" votes switch to "pro-DeSantis" votes...or it could mean the opposite...

It's interesting that the AA vote is more in favor of Trump than it is DeSantis, currently...and I think that's a demo that all campaigns are looking at...

But I don't really know what conclusion to draw just yet beyond that, in the head-to-head contests vs Biden, Trump is currently polling better than DeSantis...

FireAg said:

---

AggieUSMC said:

---

Quote:

---

Taking a look at the polls on 538 since Aug 15, they are showing Biden 42-Trump 42, and Biden 39-DeSantis 36...

---

Likely Trump voters who say they won't vote for DeSantis if he beats Trump for the nom but will come around and vote for him when it comes time.

I would predict a DeSantis over Biden somewhere in the 52/48 range if he gets the nom.

---

It's entirely possible, but the data to date simply don't support that conclusion...

Most of these polls show a much higher percentage of "undecided" votes when pitting DeSantis vs Biden head-to-head...

It could mean that more "pro-Biden" votes switch to "pro-DeSantis" votes...or it could mean the opposite...

It's interesting that the AA vote is more in favor of Trump than it is DeSantis, currently...and I think that's a demo that all campaigns are looking at...

But I don't really know what conclusion to draw just yet beyond that, in the head-to-head contests vs Biden, Trump is currently polling better than DeSantis...

---

The national polls really aren't relevant in this discussion, not sure a Republican will ever win the popular vote again. Only a handful of states really matter, and Trump has already shown he can't win Arizona and Georgia, much less flip back one of PA, Michigan or Wisconsin or states like Virginia and Nevada that have shown to be open to electing non Trump style republicans. He could also easily lose NC. There's just not a plausible path for him to win.

FireAg said:

---

AggieUSMC said:

---

Quote:

---

Taking a look at the polls on 538 since Aug 15, they are showing Biden 42-Trump 42, and Biden 39-DeSantis 36...

---

Likely Trump voters who say they won't vote for DeSantis if he beats Trump for the nom but will come around and vote for him when it comes time.

I would predict a DeSantis over Biden somewhere in the 52/48 range if he gets the nom.

---

It's entirely possible, but the data to date simply don't support that conclusion...

Most of these polls show a much higher percentage of "undecided" votes when pitting DeSantis vs Biden head-to-head...

It could mean that more "pro-Biden" votes switch to "pro-DeSantis" votes...or it could mean the opposite...

It's interesting that the AA vote is more in favor of Trump than it is DeSantis, currently...and I think that's a demo that all campaigns are looking at...

But I don't really know what conclusion to draw just yet beyond that, in the head-to-head contests vs Biden, Trump is currently polling better than DeSantis...

---

DeSantis' strength is the Suburbs and people with families. His message is tailor made for them. He'll almost certainly do much better among married women than Trump has been doing for instance, I know a LOT who are fairly conservative but can't get over the Trump being Trump factor. He's likely to do better with college educated men than Trump as well. That's why he is popular on this forum, a lot of folks fit his core demo.

The fact that the Biden/DeSantis polling is in the 30's is huge for DeSantis. If 20% are up for grabs he's in a lot better situation to win them over as a new and young candidate vs a Trump/Biden contest where anyone in that 10% who are undecided likely hate them both and are trying to decide which one makes them vomit the least. The age factor alone in a Biden/DeSantis contest is a massive advantage for him as well as the fact DeSantis has no real baggage like Hunter.

Of course if they trade out Biden for a Newsom or Whitmer that's going to be really tough for Trump. It means he has to do real debates and puts him up against candidates with no real baggage and who are 20 or more years younger than he is.

TRM said:

---

Or pay for their criminal defense.

---

Or declassify and publish/release to the public EVERY SINGLE THING the FBI and various federal agencies/capitol police had about that date (CHS's in DC/Proud Boys etc) before Xiden was sworn in. He was too busy, again, giving Tony Fauci etc. an award his last full day in office.

Inexcusable dereliction of duty, imho.

I think your explanations may certainly have merit, but I'm not sure how anyone who is college educated would choose this current economy and dependence on foreign oil over Trump…

I mean, let's assume Biden legitimately won 2020 because college educated broke his way…

Now you've seen 3 absolutely atrocious years under Biden…would you really choose 4 more of them? For all his faults, Trump was better for the economy, American jobs, and American products than Biden has been…plus I highly doubt we'd be fighting an expensive proxy war vs Russia with Trump in office…

FireAg said:

---

I think your explanations may certainly have merit, but I'm not sure how anyone who is college educated would choose this current economy and dependence on foreign oil over Trump…

I mean, let's assume Biden legitimately won 2020 because college educated broke his way…

Now you've seen 3 absolutely atrocious years under Biden…would you really choose 4 more of them? For all his faults, Trump was better for the economy, American jobs, and American products than Biden has been…plus I highly doubt we'd be fighting an expensive proxy war vs Russia with Trump in office…

---

Oh I don't disagree but I don't think there is any sane reason to vote for Democrats. College educated voters tend to be more bothered by Trump's immature antics, especially women. Trump has steadily declined with the Suburban vote at a faster pace than the GOP at large. His base is rural and non college educated (which of course is kind of strange considering who he is but that's another story). Suburbs are more split and Purple though. Inner cities are Dark Blue, rural areas are Dark Red. It's the Suburbs that swing the elections generally.

I agree, but the suburbs are starting to really suffer too now…

You have the homeless and immigrants now starting to seep into the burbs, on top of high inflation and unemployment…

The burbs are starting to squeal…and I think that's at least a small part of why Trump has shown some momentum in polling…

People loathe him…but it was easier to live with him than it is Biden and progressives in charge…

Is DeSantis a better choice? I will argue that he is, but he still isn't resonating with folks yet (maybe they starts to change tonight?), and folks might be thinking it's better to go with the devil they know who was better for their wallet than the devil we currently have…

FireAg said:

---

I agree, but the suburbs are starting to really suffer too now…

You have the homeless and immigrants now starting to seep into the burbs, on top of high inflation and unemployment…

The burbs are starting to squeal…and I think that's at least a small part of why Trump has shown some momentum in polling…

People loathe him…but it was easier to live with him than it is Biden and progressives in charge…

Is DeSantis a better choice? I will argue that he is, but he still isn't resonating with folks yet (maybe they starts to change tonight?), and folks might be thinking it's better to go with the devil they know who was better for their wallet than the devil we currently have…

---

I think you are overestimating how much the suburbs are suffering. The average person living outside of Atlanta or Phoenix doesn't care about what we're spending in Ukraine or whatever the latest Hunter Biden scandal is, and is likely doing well enough financially that they aren't really noticing inflation either (obviously also helped by the media completely ignoring it). That could change, but what they will see, repeatedly and much more frequently as soon as he's the nominee, is Trump continuing to make an ass out of himself and generally be an unprofessional clown. Like it or not, that carried more weight in 2020 and will most likely do so again in '24 in the only places that matter.

FireAg said:

---

I agree, but the suburbs are starting to really suffer too now…

You have the homeless and immigrants now starting to seep into the burbs, on top of high inflation and unemployment…

The burbs are starting to squeal…and I think that's at least a small part of why Trump has shown some momentum in polling…

People loathe him…but it was easier to live with him than it is Biden and progressives in charge…

Is DeSantis a better choice? I will argue that he is, but he still isn't resonating with folks yet (maybe they starts to change tonight?), and folks might be thinking it's better to go with the devil they know who was better for their wallet than the devil we currently have…

---

That's hopecasting though. Suburban voters are also the most likely to be turned off if Trump is convicted and have been turning against him (and went away from his candidates in '22). So you are hoping for a seismic shift of a candidate that has 100% Name ID. I mean it could happen but that assumes a lot of things.

OMG straight fire! 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/mBQ8bqeoHc

— HJoseph (@DontShedOnMe_1) August 23, 2023

.@RonDeSantis: "THE TIME FOR EXCUSES FOR REPUBLICANS IS OVER."

"I will get the job done. As your President, I will not let you down." pic.twitter.com/iWiNhsnS1F

— Dave Vasquez (@DaveVasquezFL) August 23, 2023

🚨BREAKING🚨

Trump people denied access to spin room after debate. pic.twitter.com/TwVz9CFVto

— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) August 24, 2023

GAP76 said:

---

The republican candidate requires support from independents to have a chance to win the general election. Trump does not have support from independents, and even some republicans. The only way to win the general is to forward a R candidate that can garner support from independents. It is that simple.

---

After last night, it appears that DeSantis has a personality issue…can he garner independent support with a lack of (as someone else put it) "charisma"?

FireAg said:

---

GAP76 said:

---

The republican candidate requires support from independents to have a chance to win the general election. Trump does not have support from independents, and even some republicans. The only way to win the general is to forward a R candidate that can garner support from independents. It is that simple.

---

After last night, it appears that DeSantis has a personality issue…can he garner independent support with a lack of (as someone else put it) "charisma"?

---

Unfortunately I think you're right. He'd didn't show any of his normal behaviors from interviews. I'm hoping that's a byproduct of knowing he's only going to get a total of 8-10 minutes so stick to your talking points. I hope the next debate is down to 2 or 3 and the leaders of the race can talk more.

Yet another issue that Trump failed on- the Fentanyl epidemic in America.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at the first GOP presidential primary debate on Wednesday that he would authorize military force into Mexico as a way to tackle the Mexican drug cartels funneling fentanyl into the U.S.

DeSantis, who has previously promised to authorize lethal force at the border against drug smugglers, was asked if he would support sending U.S. Special Forces over the border into Mexico to take out fentanyl labs and the operations of drug cartels.

"Yes, and I will do it on day one," he said.

FireAg said:

---

GAP76 said:

---

The republican candidate requires support from independents to have a chance to win the general election. Trump does not have support from independents, and even some republicans. The only way to win the general is to forward a R candidate that can garner support from independents. It is that simple.

---

After last night, it appears that DeSantis has a personality issue…can he garner independent support with a lack of (as someone else put it) "charisma"?

---

What was the result of the 2022 Florida election again?

answer that please and let us know how many independents voted for DeSantis.

and while you are at it-

let us know how many independents voted for Trump and how many independents voted for Biden in 2020?

since you seem so concerned about 'charisma' over policy-

please explain how much 'charisma' Joe Biden has.

FireAg said:

---

GAP76 said:

---

The republican candidate requires support from independents to have a chance to win the general election. Trump does not have support from independents, and even some republicans. The only way to win the general is to forward a R candidate that can garner support from independents. It is that simple.

---

After last night, it appears that DeSantis has a personality issue…can he garner independent support with a lack of (as someone else put it) "charisma"?

---

Not sure, he did it in Florida but who knows if that will carry in the general. We do know Trump has already lost those people though.

I think independents are more interested in competent governance and getting things done. And if it's DeSantis vs Biden the answer is easy.

TRM said:

---

Seems like it'll be a bloodbath.

Brutal poll for Trump.

☑️ Biden +6

☑️ Trump's margins among minorities are largely consistent w/ 2020-22 results, some improvements w/ Hispanics.

☑️ But he's losing ground with college-educated whites.

☑️ 5% of Republicans sit out 2024 w/ Trump as nominee (same as midterms) https://t.co/lYYQlJ8djx pic.twitter.com/jAyinPZ9Q5

— WPA Intelligence (@WPAIntel) August 23, 2023

---

Quote:

---

5% of Republicans sit out 2024 w/ Trump as nominee (same as midterms)

---

THIS is the scary part. Those 5% aren't just going to sit out on voting for Trump. They're going to sit out going to the polls entirely.

That bloodbath would be felt in the congressional races, too...

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

GAP76 said:

---

The republican candidate requires support from independents to have a chance to win the general election. Trump does not have support from independents, and even some republicans. The only way to win the general is to forward a R candidate that can garner support from independents. It is that simple.

---

After last night, it appears that DeSantis has a personality issue…can he garner independent support with a lack of (as someone else put it) "charisma"?

---

What was the result of the 2022 Florida election again?

answer that please and let us know how many independents voted for DeSantis.

and while you are at it-

let us know how many independents voted for Trump and how many independents voted for Biden in 2020?

since you seem so concerned about 'charisma' over policy-

please explain how much 'charisma' Joe Biden has.

---

Easy bud...I didn't watch it...I am merely reading tea leaves from what others have posted here and the write-ups on the internet this morning...

Here's one take posted on FoxNews this morning:

Quote:

---

Indeed, with Trump now commanding a 40-point lead in the primary race, and enjoying widespread loyalty among Republicans, all candidates needed to break through and give voters a reason to choose them over the former president. No one achieved that kind of success on Wednesday night.

The candidate who most needed a leap forward was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose campaign has been in free fall for weeks. Though the Florida governor made no drastic missteps, he looked awkward and uncomfortable. He failed to answer most of the questions directed to him, instead doggedly inserting pre-prepared sound-bites that rarely met the moment.

The worst moment for DeSantis came when the moderators asked the candidates to indicate whether they would support Trump for president, should he win the nomination. Everyone but Christie and Asa Hutchinson signaled support for the former president; DeSantis raised his hand only after seeming to look left and right for reassurance. Viewers took note.

---

I'm not trying to rile you or anyone else up... I'm merely making observations of what others perceived from last night's performance...

Whether any of us like it or not, how a candidate comes across socially, regardless of actual substance, is in fact a significant factor for voters (even if it is subconscious)...

Whether you or anyone else likes it or not, perception is reality...and RD's personality is getting mixed reviews at best...

For those whining and wailing that NO Republican can ever win again because the State of Georgia is overwhelmed by democrats. Maybe if we choose "NOT TRUMP" we would have a shot...

statewide officials in the State of Georgia. you actually have to suck so bad to NOT win as a Republican in Georgia!


Governor Brian P. Kemp (Republican)

Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan (Republican)

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (Republican)

Attorney General Chris Carr (Republican)

Commissioner of Agriculture Gary Black (Republican)

Commissioner of Insurance and Safety Fire John King (Republican)

State School Superintendent Richard Woods (Republican)

Commissioner of Labor Mark Butler (Republican)

Public Service Commission
Commissioner Jason Shaw- District 1 (Republican)
Commissioner Tim Echols- District 2 (Vice-Chairman) (Republican)
Commissioner Lauren "Bubba" McDonald- District 4 (Chairman) (Republican)
Commissioner Tricia Pridemore- District 5 (Republican)
Commissioner Fitz Johnson - District 3 (Republican)

3 years ago there were probably a hundred posters here - myself included - defending Trump's personality with, "we vote on policy, not personality." Fast forward and some of those same folks now find personality more important.

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

Money. DeSantis has a lot more money and a lot more donors than Trump and has no legal issues to drain him.

---

Trump almost certainly isn't as rich as he claims, but he is still worth BILLIONS of dollars. He's not going to spend his own money if he can get the MAGA hats to give it to him, but given that winning this election or not could affect whether he ends up going to prison, I don't think he's going to let money stand in the way.

---

well that's incorrect on many levels

he does not have "billions"

most of his money is tied up in real estate and is not liquid

was winning in 2020 not important to him when he was badly outspent by the leftists and did not use his own money?

the President has no role in Georgia prison sentences.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

I agree, but the suburbs are starting to really suffer too now…

You have the homeless and immigrants now starting to seep into the burbs, on top of high inflation and unemployment…

The burbs are starting to squeal…and I think that's at least a small part of why Trump has shown some momentum in polling…

People loathe him…but it was easier to live with him than it is Biden and progressives in charge…

Is DeSantis a better choice? I will argue that he is, but he still isn't resonating with folks yet (maybe they starts to change tonight?), and folks might be thinking it's better to go with the devil they know who was better for their wallet than the devil we currently have…

---

I think you are overestimating how much the suburbs are suffering. The average person living outside of Atlanta or Phoenix doesn't care about what we're spending in Ukraine or whatever the latest Hunter Biden scandal is, and is likely doing well enough financially that they aren't really noticing inflation either (obviously also helped by the media completely ignoring it). That could change, but what they will see, repeatedly and much more frequently as soon as he's the nominee, is Trump continuing to make an ass out of himself and generally be an unprofessional clown. Like it or not, that carried more weight in 2020 and will most likely do so again in '24 in the only places that matter.

---

100% spot on by Weatherman

and guess what? we don't have to trust the opinions of anonymous posters on a athletics message board.

because we JUST HAD AN ELECTION in 2022

where there was a recession and high inflation and STILL Trump is so hated that his candidates and the GOP underperformed and were routed all over the country in an off-term election.

Then you are ecstatic about winning more socialism.

FireAg said:

---

Ever think your passion for DeSantis would be better served as a volunteer for his campaign, banging on doors as part of his massive ground game rather than trying to convince less than a dozen people on TexAgs that you're right and they're wrong?

Your passion is truly admirable, but I think it's wasted on such a niche community forum...

---

some of us actual conservatives do all of the above:

donate to DeSantis
campaign for him
buy his merchandise to support him

just like I have done for every Republican since Bob Dole in 1996.