aggie93 said:

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aggie93 said:

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So Trump is working with the MSM to bash DeSantis confirmed.

Oh.. huh pic.twitter.com/2MKaVpNMIz

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) August 23, 2023

---

Imagine the reaction from Trump supporters if DeSantis had his surrogates meet with MSM outlets to do something like this. You want to know how you get some DeSantis supporters to vote 3rd Party if he is the nominee? Don't come to the debate but have your surrogates do crap like this and then try preaching later how we all need to unify around your guy. For me I will suck it up and do so but many won't if you keep this up.

---

They don't even want DeSantis supporters. Remember, Trump himself has declared all he needs is "MAGA" to win the election.

Phatbob said:

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LarryElder said:

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But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

But but he doesn't need to debate because we know what we need to know about Trump

---

Fast forward to a year from now to this situation.

Trump is down by 5-10 points in the polls. He has already been convicted in at least one case and is consumed in legal drama. His campaign is broke and big donors don't want to throw money in to pay his legal fees and they know it won't go to his campaign. The Media is finding new levels of scorched Earth to go on him and he has little ability to rebut them. Then Biden or whomever the Dem candidate is refuses to debate or will only allow 1 Debate but they get to make EVERY rule and choose a hard partisan that will just ask questions they want to have.

Trump will scream about how unfair it is and the rest of us will just roll our eyes as we predicted what would happen but know it is too late now.

aggie93 said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

LarryElder said:

---

But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

But but he doesn't need to debate because we know what we need to know about Trump

---

Fast forward to a year from now to this situation.

Trump is down by 5-10 points in the polls. He has already been convicted in at least one case and is consumed in legal drama. His campaign is broke and big donors don't want to throw money in to pay his legal fees and they know it won't go to his campaign. The Media is finding new levels of scorched Earth to go on him and he has little ability to rebut them. Then Biden or whomever the Dem candidate is refuses to debate or will only allow 1 Debate but they get to make EVERY rule and choose a hard partisan that will just ask questions they want to have.

Trump will scream about how unfair it is and the rest of us will just roll our eyes as we predicted what would happen but know it is too late now.

---

We can see everything that will occur clear as day IF Trump is the nominee.

but his supporters will always refuse to admit reality.

so a year from now, you would have democrat party Secretary of States stripping a felon from their voter rolls, and near 80 year old Trump will be spending millions of dollars a week on different legal defenses.

sounds like an outstanding strategy!

LMCane said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

LarryElder said:

---

But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

But but he doesn't need to debate because we know what we need to know about Trump

---

Fast forward to a year from now to this situation.

Trump is down by 5-10 points in the polls. He has already been convicted in at least one case and is consumed in legal drama. His campaign is broke and big donors don't want to throw money in to pay his legal fees and they know it won't go to his campaign. The Media is finding new levels of scorched Earth to go on him and he has little ability to rebut them. Then Biden or whomever the Dem candidate is refuses to debate or will only allow 1 Debate but they get to make EVERY rule and choose a hard partisan that will just ask questions they want to have.

Trump will scream about how unfair it is and the rest of us will just roll our eyes as we predicted what would happen but know it is too late now.

---

We can see everything that will occur clear as day IF Trump is the nominee.

but his supporters will always refuse to admit reality.

so a year from now, you would have democrat party Secretary of States stripping a felon from their voter rolls, and near 80 year old Trump will be spending millions of dollars a week on different legal defenses.

sounds like an outstanding strategy!

---

I think it's just a matter of not looking down the chess board at where this plays out, still time for people to look up from all the distractions and theater to realize where this is headed. I completely understand the anger and frustration about how these are political witch hunts against Trump and how unfair it is compared to Biden but that doesn't change the bigger picture.

LMCane said:

---

so a year from now, you would have democrat party Secretary of States stripping a felon from their voter rolls

---

Look...I don't know how all of this is going to play out in the end...IF Trump is nominated...if he's still even alive at that point (folks rant on his age constantly)...sooo many variables...

But let's be honest about one thing...

If someone, anyone, were to disqualify a party's duly-elected nominee from being able to be on the ticket, we would ABSOLUTELY have a constitutional crisis on our hands, and things would get very ugly...like shots fired, people dead, buildings burning, Rodney King "can't we all just get along" UGLY...

There are no constitutional grounds for removing a candidate from a presidential ballot for being convicted of a felony in a criminal court...

Now, if elected, you could subsequently move to impeach them (though, in theory, the candidate could also pardon themselves if elected...yes that could actually happen the way the laws are written), but that too would likely create a constitutional crisis...

Could states hurry up and change their laws before the election to implement such rules? They could, but don't think for a second that SCOTUS wouldn't immediately jump in and have their say...

I've seen several folks throw around this idea of just removing the candidate from the ballot...such a unilateral decision, even if done at the state level, would absolutely have immediate and dire consequences for our republic... You can't just disenfranchise 70-80 million people (based on the 2020 electorate counts...it could be more) and not expect them to rise up and fight back...

aggie93 said:

---

LMCane said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

LarryElder said:

---

But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

But but he doesn't need to debate because we know what we need to know about Trump

---

Fast forward to a year from now to this situation.

Trump is down by 5-10 points in the polls. He has already been convicted in at least one case and is consumed in legal drama. His campaign is broke and big donors don't want to throw money in to pay his legal fees and they know it won't go to his campaign. The Media is finding new levels of scorched Earth to go on him and he has little ability to rebut them. Then Biden or whomever the Dem candidate is refuses to debate or will only allow 1 Debate but they get to make EVERY rule and choose a hard partisan that will just ask questions they want to have.

Trump will scream about how unfair it is and the rest of us will just roll our eyes as we predicted what would happen but know it is too late now.

---

We can see everything that will occur clear as day IF Trump is the nominee.

but his supporters will always refuse to admit reality.

so a year from now, you would have democrat party Secretary of States stripping a felon from their voter rolls, and near 80 year old Trump will be spending millions of dollars a week on different legal defenses.

sounds like an outstanding strategy!

---

I think it's just a matter of not looking down the chess board at where this plays out, still time for people to look up from all the distractions and theater to realize where this is headed. I completely understand the anger and frustration about how these are political witch hunts against Trump and how unfair it is compared to Biden but that doesn't change the bigger picture.

---

The chess board is clear for those that know more than checkers. Karma will ultimately win and we get to witness further the crash and burn of donald and the family tree.

It just sucks that the GOP has to endure it, too. But it will rebound and survive.

LarryElder said:

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TRM said:

---

Seems like it'll be a bloodbath.

---

But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

1) It is too early to look at polls. The predictive value of general election polling over a year out from the election is not much better than random chance at predicting a winner.

2) The same poll has Biden up 45-40 on DeSantis.

3) It is entirely possible that no Republican will be able to beat Biden's formidable "stay in the basement" campaign.

It is also possible (if the economy tanks) that any Republican will beat Biden.

What there is not any meaningful evidence for, as of yet, is the idea that DeSantis is significantly more likely than Trump to beat Biden.

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

LarryElder said:

---

TRM said:

---

Seems like it'll be a bloodbath.

---

But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

1) It is too early to look at polls. The predictive value of general election polling over a year out from the election is not much better than random chance at predicting a winner.

2) The same poll has Biden up 45-40 on DeSantis.

3) It is entirely possible that no Republican will be able to beat Biden's formidable "stay in the basement" campaign.

It is also possible (if the economy tanks) that any Republican will beat Biden.

What there is not any meaningful evidence for, as of yet, is the idea that DeSantis is significantly more likely than Trump to beat Biden.

---

100% spot on...

Also should note that these "bad polls" are within the margin of error (i.e., statistically tied).

FireAg said:

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LMCane said:

---

so a year from now, you would have democrat party Secretary of States stripping a felon from their voter rolls

---

Look...I don't know how all of this is going to play out in the end...IF Trump is nominated...if he's still even alive at that point (folks rant on his age constantly)...sooo many variables...

But let's be honest about one thing...

If someone, anyone, were to disqualify a party's duly-elected nominee from being able to be on the ticket, we would ABSOLUTELY have a constitutional crisis on our hands, and things would get very ugly...like shots fired, people dead, buildings burning, Rodney King "can't we all just get along" UGLY...

There are no constitutional grounds for removing a candidate from a presidential ballot for being convicted of a felony in a criminal court...

Now, if elected, you could subsequently move to impeach them (though, in theory, the candidate could also pardon themselves if elected...yes that could actually happen the way the laws are written), but that too would likely create a constitutional crisis...

Could states hurry up and change their laws before the election to implement such rules? They could, but don't think for a second that SCOTUS wouldn't immediately jump in and have their say...

I've seen several folks throw around this idea of just removing the candidate from the ballot...such a unilateral decision, even if done at the state level, would absolutely have immediate and dire consequences for our republic... You can't just disenfranchise 70-80 million people (based on the 2020 electorate counts...it could be more) and not expect them to rise up and fight back...

---

First off, I think it would be very wrong on every level to do this.

That said there is nothing in the Constitution to prevent this and the Constitution allows for states to make their own election laws to a great extent. The 10th Amendment also further reinforces this. They are also not talking about preventing them from voting for a candidate because you can always write them in and candidates have done that successfully in the past.

I think you greatly overestimate the backlash here even though I agree it is an outrage. Really that's the point though, it's not like Trump is going to win California and places like that which are most likely to do it but they want to distract people with stuff like this.

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

LarryElder said:

---

TRM said:

---

Seems like it'll be a bloodbath.

---

But but it's too early to look at polls /f16

---

1) It is too early to look at polls. The predictive value of general election polling over a year out from the election is not much better than random chance at predicting a winner.

2) The same poll has Biden up 45-40 on DeSantis.

3) It is entirely possible that no Republican will be able to beat Biden's formidable "stay in the basement" campaign.

It is also possible (if the economy tanks) that any Republican will beat Biden.

What there is not any meaningful evidence for, as of yet, is the idea that DeSantis is significantly more likely than Trump to beat Biden.

---

While on the surface that sounds good the reality is that if Trump runs the election is between 2 known commodities and Trump is more hated than Biden (even though that is crazy). Trump is going to have a very hard time winning over those undecided/Independent voters in the middle that make up the 10% or so that swing the election.

DeSantis is a different story completely. He's a newcomer that has no real baggage. He runs against Biden and it's a referendum on Biden against a 45 year old successful Governor that doesn't say or do stupid things. Of course they will try and paint him as Hitler but that's going to be awfully tough to pull off. The number of undecided/Independent voters are much higher in that race and DeSantis is much more likely to win them over simply because he isn't Biden and is something new.

Essentially it is going to be very hard for Trump to improve his numbers but we have no idea what DeSantis' ceiling is. Obviously he has been extremely successful in Florida winning over Independents though and even some Democrats who just like competent governance.

Still the larger point that polls more than a year away from an election mean very little.

BS. Election interference.

If you were wondering if there was any air between Team Trump and the Liberal establishment in the fight to take down supporters of Ron DeSantis…

Here’s your answer. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/55gZT0KMr0

— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) August 23, 2023

So that PAC was banned by Twitter?

aggie93 said:

---

I think you greatly overestimate the backlash here even though I agree it is an outrage. Really that's the point though, it's not like Trump is going to win California and places like that which are most likely to do it but they want to distract people with stuff like this.

---

You're naive, my friend, and I say that with all due respect to a poster that I truly respect...

There would be so many lawsuits going up in a matter of a few nano-seconds, even if it were CA that did this, that not even God could keep up with them...

There would be immediate stays, overturns, appeals, additional stays...the 9th Circuit probably ultimately rules for the CA SoS, and then it would immediately be appealed to SCOTUS, where you have a 6-3 conservative court... Plus, all of this would have to be done weeks before election day...because if some wise-ass SoS tried it on election day, then you would open up the whole "ballot tampering" and "rigged election" debate..and I guarandamntee you some voting machines would get the update, and then others wouldn't, and then you have that mess to deal with (do you just disallow any votes cast legally for a candidate by claiming they weren't supposed to be on the ballot to begin with?)...

I mean, come on man...this would NOT be an easy thing to get done...and the pandora's boxes that would get opened up...it would have the potential to be catastrophic for this Republic, and thus, it would be a constitutional crisis... It would make hanging chads look like a quiet walk in a meadow...

And let me address your dismissal of the backlash specifically...nearly 75 million people voted for one candidate in 2020...and if you pulled such a stunt in 2024, there are at least that many people who could claim disenfranchisement... Of that many people, how many of those do you think are willing to raise a ruckus over it? I bet you that number is in the millions, and guess what? Given the party affiliation of those disenfranchised in this particular case, a lot of them have guns...

There would be carnage in the streets if some SoS tried to pull such a stunt...and if you don't think there would be, then you don't have a good sense of how truly ugly the divide in this country is right now...

TRM said:

---

BS. Election interference.

If you were wondering if there was any air between Team Trump and the Liberal establishment in the fight to take down supporters of Ron DeSantis…

Here’s your answer. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/55gZT0KMr0

— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) August 23, 2023

---

That doesn't look real to me...

Yup. Horrible time especially with the debate tonight.

FireAg said:

---

TRM said:

---

BS. Election interference.

If you were wondering if there was any air between Team Trump and the Liberal establishment in the fight to take down supporters of Ron DeSantis…

Here’s your answer. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/55gZT0KMr0

— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) August 23, 2023

---

That doesn't look real to me...

---

It was real and apparently already fixed. Apparently they tagged it as Spam for some reason but corrected it quickly. Strange.

Probably had a bunch of people target it as spam.

FireAg said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

I think you greatly overestimate the backlash here even though I agree it is an outrage. Really that's the point though, it's not like Trump is going to win California and places like that which are most likely to do it but they want to distract people with stuff like this.

---

You're naive, my friend, and I say that with all due respect to a poster that I truly respect...

There would be so many lawsuits going up in a matter of a few nano-seconds, even if it were CA that did this, that not even God could keep up with them...

There would be immediate stays, overturns, appeals, additional stays...the 9th Circuit probably ultimately rules for the CA SoS, and then it would immediately be appealed to SCOTUS, where you have a 6-3 conservative court... Plus, all of this would have to be done weeks before election day...because if some wise-ass SoS tried it on election day, then you would open up the whole "ballot tampering" and "rigged election" debate..and I guarandamntee you some voting machines would get the update, and then others wouldn't, and then you have that mess to deal with (do you just disallow any votes cast legally for a candidate by claiming they weren't supposed to be on the ballot to begin with?)...

I mean, come on man...this would NOT be an easy thing to get done...and the pandora's boxes that would get opened up...it would have the potential to be catastrophic for this Republic, and thus, it would be a constitutional crisis... It would make hanging chads look like a quiet walk in a meadow...

And let me address your dismissal of the backlash specifically...nearly 75 million people voted for one candidate in 2020...and if you pulled such a stunt in 2024, there are at least that many people who could claim disenfranchisement... Of that many people, how many of those do you think are willing to raise a ruckus over it? I bet you that number is in the millions, and guess what? Given the party affiliation of those disenfranchised in this particular case, a lot of them have guns...

There would be carnage in the streets if some SoS tried to pull such a stunt...and if you don't think there would be, then you don't have a good sense of how truly ugly the divide in this country is right now...

---

You are basically saying if California takes Trump's name off the ballot that there will be riots in the streets and I disagree. We have put up with a lot worse over the last few years. I also am making the legal argument not the moral one, states have a lot of leeway on elections.

Maybe we burn down the country over Trump not being on the ballot in California but I doubt it.

No one cares about California taking Trump off the ballot.

what happens when ARIZONA takes him off the ballot?!

when he loses Arizona AGAIN, the election is over.

and Trump will lose Arizona and Georgia again.

if only we had elections to see which side is correct!

2020: Trump loses to Biden in Arizona
2020: Trump loses to Biden in Georgia
2021: Trump supports GOP senators who lose in Georgia
2022: Trump supports Kari Lake in Arizona who loses
2022: Trump supports Blake Masters in Arizona who loses
2022: Trump supports Walker in Georgia who loses

how many losers do there have to be before the losers realize they are losing?

aggie93 said:

---

While on the surface that sounds good the reality is that if Trump runs the election is between 2 known commodities and Trump is more hated than Biden (even though that is crazy). Trump is going to have a very hard time winning over those undecided/Independent voters in the middle that make up the 10% or so that swing the election.

DeSantis is a different story completely.

---

Although everything you say could be accurate, but as of yet there is no good evidence that it is.

I don't know that 'independent/swing voters' are going to be inclined to support DeSantis. In general, I don't think it is a great argument to assert that someone that F16 is wild about is going to have a lot of appeal for moderates who are potentially willing to vote for both teams.

I would agree that it is quite possible that simply not being Biden or Trump would eventually prove an advantage, but as of yet there is not really any sign of that happening.

Moreover, turnout is probably at least as, if not more, important than appealing to the rare swing voters (I don't think the number of those is anything like 10%, btw. I suspect it is 5% or less.)

Trump won in 2016 because a group of people who are not 'habitual voters' (particularly white, non-college graduates concentrated in the Rust Belt) turned out for him, and enthusiasm for HRC was low. Those voters are not doctrinaire conservatives (in some cases, not even conservative in general). It is possible that they will simply stay home for any candidate who isn't Trump. This could offset your theorized advantages for DeSantis.

LMCane said:

---

No one cares about California taking Trump off the ballot.

what happens when ARIZONA takes him off the ballot?!

when he loses Arizona AGAIN, the election is over.

and Trump will lose Arizona and Georgia again.

if only we had elections to see which side is correct!

2020: Trump loses to Biden in Arizona
2020: Trump loses to Biden in Georgia
2021: Trump supports GOP senators who lose in Georgia
2022: Trump supports Kari Lake in Arizona who loses
2022: Trump supports Blake Masters in Arizona who loses
2022: Trump supports Walker in Georgia who loses

how many losers do there have to be before the losers realize they are losing?

---

Because A LOT of folks out there still don't think he lost...

I know you disagree...I know there are several on TexAgs who will point to XYZ as "proof" it wasn't rigged, but you are grossly mistaken if you think there are "just a handful of nutjob mouth breathers" out there who still think 2020 was a snow job...

That is a powder keg ready to ignite...but a lot of you have dismissed it simply because you believe "no one with half a brain is dumb enough to think the election was actually stolen"...

Nearly 70% of those espousing to be Republicans still believe the fix was in...

That translates to literally millions... I believe the Left and establishment truly do fear this sentiment, and THAT is why they are going after the man with fake crimes trying to run him off...

They don't want to have to try to pull it off again...

aggie93 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

I think you greatly overestimate the backlash here even though I agree it is an outrage. Really that's the point though, it's not like Trump is going to win California and places like that which are most likely to do it but they want to distract people with stuff like this.

---

You're naive, my friend, and I say that with all due respect to a poster that I truly respect...

There would be so many lawsuits going up in a matter of a few nano-seconds, even if it were CA that did this, that not even God could keep up with them...

There would be immediate stays, overturns, appeals, additional stays...the 9th Circuit probably ultimately rules for the CA SoS, and then it would immediately be appealed to SCOTUS, where you have a 6-3 conservative court... Plus, all of this would have to be done weeks before election day...because if some wise-ass SoS tried it on election day, then you would open up the whole "ballot tampering" and "rigged election" debate..and I guarandamntee you some voting machines would get the update, and then others wouldn't, and then you have that mess to deal with (do you just disallow any votes cast legally for a candidate by claiming they weren't supposed to be on the ballot to begin with?)...

I mean, come on man...this would NOT be an easy thing to get done...and the pandora's boxes that would get opened up...it would have the potential to be catastrophic for this Republic, and thus, it would be a constitutional crisis... It would make hanging chads look like a quiet walk in a meadow...

And let me address your dismissal of the backlash specifically...nearly 75 million people voted for one candidate in 2020...and if you pulled such a stunt in 2024, there are at least that many people who could claim disenfranchisement... Of that many people, how many of those do you think are willing to raise a ruckus over it? I bet you that number is in the millions, and guess what? Given the party affiliation of those disenfranchised in this particular case, a lot of them have guns...

There would be carnage in the streets if some SoS tried to pull such a stunt...and if you don't think there would be, then you don't have a good sense of how truly ugly the divide in this country is right now...

---

You are basically saying if California takes Trump's name off the ballot that there will be riots in the streets and I disagree. We have put up with a lot worse over the last few years. I also am making the legal argument not the moral one, states have a lot of leeway on elections.

Maybe we burn down the country over Trump not being on the ballot in California but I doubt it.

---

You assume (and I believe wrongfully) that it would be an isolated incident if CA did it, and that other like-minded SoS's wiouldn't try the same the same thing in their states...

I make no such assumption...monkey see - monkey do...

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

While on the surface that sounds good the reality is that if Trump runs the election is between 2 known commodities and Trump is more hated than Biden (even though that is crazy). Trump is going to have a very hard time winning over those undecided/Independent voters in the middle that make up the 10% or so that swing the election.

DeSantis is a different story completely.

---

Although everything you say could be accurate, but as of yet there is no good evidence that it is.

I don't know that 'independent/swing voters' are going to be inclined to support DeSantis. In general, I don't think it is a great argument to assert that someone that F16 is wild about is going to have a lot of appeal for moderates who are potentially willing to vote for both teams.

I would agree that it is quite possible that simply not being Biden or Trump would eventually prove an advantage, but as of yet there is not really any sign of that happening.

Moreover, turnout is probably at least as, if not more, important than appealing to the rare swing voters (I don't think the number of those is anything like 10%, btw. I suspect it is 5% or less.)

Trump won in 2016 because a group of people who are not 'habitual voters' (particularly white, non-college graduates concentrated in the Rust Belt) turned out for him, and enthusiasm for HRC was low. Those voters are not doctrinaire conservatives (in some cases, not even conservative in general). It is possible that they will simply stay home for any candidate who isn't Trump. This could offset your theorized advantages for DeSantis.

---

LOL

Nice job claiming how Trump turns out MAGA voters.

of course, you neglected to mention the FACT that Trump turning out his own MAGA forces WAS NOT ENOUGH to beat Biden already.

you also forgot to mention that Trump brings out huge waves of DEMOCRATS and anti-Trump voters as well.

something which would not occur if the candidate is DeSantis.

LMCane said:

---

of course, you neglected to mention the FACT that Trump turning out his own MAGA forces WAS NOT ENOUGH to beat Biden already.

you also forgot to mention that Trump brings out huge waves of DEMOCRATS and anti-Trump voters as well.

---

Your post should come with an '*'...

*assuming he actually lost 2020 in a fair election

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

While on the surface that sounds good the reality is that if Trump runs the election is between 2 known commodities and Trump is more hated than Biden (even though that is crazy). Trump is going to have a very hard time winning over those undecided/Independent voters in the middle that make up the 10% or so that swing the election.

DeSantis is a different story completely.

---

Although everything you say could be accurate, but as of yet there is no good evidence that it is.

I don't know that 'independent/swing voters' are going to be inclined to support DeSantis. In general, I don't think it is a great argument to assert that someone that F16 is wild about is going to have a lot of appeal for moderates who are potentially willing to vote for both teams.

I would agree that it is quite possible that simply not being Biden or Trump would eventually prove an advantage, but as of yet there is not really any sign of that happening.

Moreover, turnout is probably at least as, if not more, important than appealing to the rare swing voters (I don't think the number of those is anything like 10%, btw. I suspect it is 5% or less.)

Trump won in 2016 because a group of people who are not 'habitual voters' (particularly white, non-college graduates concentrated in the Rust Belt) turned out for him, and enthusiasm for HRC was low. Those voters are not doctrinaire conservatives (in some cases, not even conservative in general). It is possible that they will simply stay home for any candidate who isn't Trump. This could offset your theorized advantages for DeSantis.

---

The evidence is political science, that's how elections generally work historically. Obviously LOTS of exceptions but people tend to vote for or against the incumbent.

aggie93 said:

---

The evidence is political science, that's how elections generally work historically. Obviously LOTS of exceptions but people tend to vote for or against the incumbent.

---

Historically, I agree with this. I suspect that the most likely outcome is that Biden beats both Trump and DeSantis.

The second most likely outcome is that either Trump or DeSantis beats Biden.

What you seem. to be arguing is that DeSantis, but not Trump, will (or is more likely to) beat Biden. I don't see any evidence to support that contention.

LMCane said:

---

Nice job claiming how Trump turns out MAGA voters.

of course, you neglected to mention the FACT that Trump turning out his own MAGA forces WAS NOT ENOUGH to beat Biden already.

you also forgot to mention that Trump brings out huge waves of DEMOCRATS and anti-Trump voters as well.

something which would not occur if the candidate is DeSantis.

---

The 2024 election will be different than the 2020 election in some fairly important ways.

2020 was a very high turnout election, which almost always favors Democrats. In several competitive states (i.e., Georgia) the barriers to vote by mail or via dropbox will be significantly higher than they were in 2020. How much fraud there was and how much that fraud helped Biden is debatable, but even if you presume this was negligible, simply making it really easy to vote helped the Democrats in 2020.

The other thing is that enthusiasm for Biden himself will almost certainly be lower. Is ANYONE excited about voting for this enfeebled old man? Polls indicate that something like 70% of the Democratic electorate would prefer a different candidate, which wasn't the case in 2020.

My sense is that the vast majority of people who hate Trump passionately are going to vote Democrat regardless.

What won Biden the election last time was turnout and that voters who disliked him and Trump broke for Biden. It is not yet clear that this will happen again, or that voters who dislike both options are more likely to break for DeSantis.

YokelRidesAgain said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

The evidence is political science, that's how elections generally work historically. Obviously LOTS of exceptions but people tend to vote for or against the incumbent.

---

Historically, I agree with this. I suspect that the most likely outcome is that Biden beats both Trump and DeSantis.

The second most likely outcome is that either Trump or DeSantis beats Biden.

What you seem. to be arguing is that DeSantis, but not Trump, will (or is more likely to) beat Biden. I don't see any evidence to support that contention.

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Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

Not sure DeSantis can beat Biden, we'll hopefully get a chance to find out. But we know Trump can't.

Color me shocked that the day after Dana Bash met with Team Trump, that both are using the *exact* same talking points about the debate.

Just a coincidence, I'm sure. pic.twitter.com/OCgKIUMvHh

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) August 23, 2023

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

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If there is a recession between now and Labor Day 2024, Trump would be heavily favored to beat Biden. His chances would be closer to 100% than 0.0%.

When it comes to politics, speaking in absolutes is rarely wise.

As a reminder, these people are in prison/gulags because DJT wouldn't lift a pen to help them.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

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If there is a recession between now and Labor Day 2024, Trump would be heavily favored to beat Biden. His chances would be closer to 100% than 0.0%.

When it comes to politics, speaking in absolutes is rarely wise.

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Also 100% spot on...(assuming a fair election, of course)...

YokelRidesAgain said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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Were you asleep in 2020? Trump has a 0.0% chance of beating Biden in 24. He will flip no states he lost in 2020 and may lose North Carolina as a bonus.

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If there is a recession between now and Labor Day 2024, Trump would be heavily favored to beat Biden. His chances would be closer to 100% than 0.0%.

When it comes to politics, speaking in absolutes is rarely wise.

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Yea I don't agree at all there. He has to flip GA, AZ where his brand of republicanism is hated by the voters he needs to change their minds from 2020, and flip one of the midwest states that he lost in 2020 that have only shifted more blue. Not to mention if things tank that badly the dems will just swap Newsome in and there would be an even bigger difference between the Republicans drunk grandpa and the dems smooth talking Californian.

I will say none of this also takes into account that if it's Trump and Biden there's a real possibility that the No Labels party gets someone on the ballot in a few states, so that could throw things off too depending on who it is and who they pull from.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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aggie93 said:

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The evidence is political science, that's how elections generally work historically. Obviously LOTS of exceptions but people tend to vote for or against the incumbent.

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Historically, I agree with this. I suspect that the most likely outcome is that Biden beats both Trump and DeSantis.

The second most likely outcome is that either Trump or DeSantis beats Biden.

What you seem. to be arguing is that DeSantis, but not Trump, will (or is more likely to) beat Biden. I don't see any evidence to support that contention.

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You agree about the incumbent factor but don't think it applies? Ok.

As for more reasons:

Money. DeSantis has a lot more money and a lot more donors than Trump and has no legal issues to drain him.

Ground game. DeSantis has a ground game in place already based around the HIGHLY successful one he built in Florida as well as the Obama 2008 model. Trump has no ground game to speak of. This is critical for ballot harvesting and GOTV.

Independent votes. Trump did poorly with Independents in 2020 and it is unlikely that more legal problems and a probable conviction or two is going to help with that. DeSantis can run on a "good governance" model that tends to appeal to Independents who have been attracted to him, Youngkin, Reynolds, and Kemp all of which have a similar path.

Georgia and Arizona. Trump has burned the bridges badly in those states by attacking Kemp and screwing up the the Senate runoffs. in Georgia and attacking McCain in Arizona. That 5-10% of voters that are on those margins in those states (GeorgiaAg is a great example) are the difference in them. Trump's candidates all lost in those states in '22 and the ones that stood against him won easily (Kemp and Yee for example). There is simply no path for a Republican to win the Presidency without both of those states unless you flip something like Pennsylvania which is a much higher bar to clear. Georgia is a virtual lock for Desantis with his relationship with Kemp and the crossover from Georgia/Florida folks and Arizona always loves veterans.

There are other reasons but that's a few off the top of my head. There are no locks though for a Republican. It's going to be a difficult campaign for anyone. DeSantis just has the fewest negatives by far and that usually ends up being the key factor for people who are undecided, they vote against people more than they vote for them. There are a LOT of people that absolutely positively despise Trump and others that simply will not hold their nose to vote for him. DeSantis? Outside of a few leftist activists and Laura Loomer people don't hate him. They may not love him or even like him that much but he's kind of a hard guy to hate.

On the flip side Trump definitely inspires people more and has a bigger personality. DeSantis isn't Cruz awkward but he's definitely more naturally introverted than many politicians. He likes the work and doing the job not necessarily the pomp and circumstance. DeSantis is adequate but not magnetic. Still the key is I think his organization and ground game can get the votes out as well as making the election about NOT voting for the other guy.