Agree, but the impeachments were completely political. Can't hold that against him.

AggieUSMC said:

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Assuming DeSantis fails to get the nomination, I won't be because he lost it. It will be because Trump won it. There's a certain cult of personality around Trump that there is just nothing DeSantis or anyone can do to overcome.

This is unfortunate since I think Trump at the top of the ticket next year means 4 more years of Biden.

---

Be careful. Certain posters get really offended when you use the c word to describe people who are loyal only to one man and literally nothing else, insist that everything he does is correct and/or part of some grand plan, and refuse to ever say one negative thing about him.

Zarathustra said:

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Agree, but the impeachments were completely political. Can't hold that against him.

---

Sure you can. Trump was careless and gave the Democrats the rope to hang him. Of course they went nowhere and were uber political but I get so tired of Trump never having to take any responsibility for anything that happens to him. I mean if nothing else Trump always seemed to surround himself with completely untrustworthy people who had no loyalty to him and then was surprised when they turned on him over and over again. He has zero discipline in controlling his mouth and that has continued to cause him problems.

He should not have been impeached but Trump practically begged for it and he still does. "Victim Trump" is the worst Trump.

LMCane said:

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Nice to be posting in Eastern Time Zone once again!

Trump continuing to plumb the depths of rage posting and showing off his low class mafia bullying techniques:

"WOW, it's finally happened! Liddle' Mike Pence, a man who was about to be ousted as Governor Indiana until I came along and made him V.P., has gone to the Dark Side," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday.

"I never told a newly emboldened (not based on his 2% poll numbers!) Pence to put me above the Constitution, or that Mike was 'too honest.' He's delusional, and now he wants to show he's a tough guy," Trump added, denying information that was contained in the indictment. "I once read a major magazine article on Mike. It said he was not a very good person. I was surprised, but the article was right. Sad!"

During a campaign stop in New Hampshire over the weekend, Pence was greeted by pro-Trump hecklers who derided the former vice president as a "traitor" and a "sellout."

---

I wonder why he has a problem with people wanting to work with him... Trump would just be a sad example of a man if it weren't for the group of Biff's lackeys that lap up everything he says as fact.

FireAg said:

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DeSantis replaces campaign manager...

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Thie bigger thing I got from this is David Polyansky officially joining the DeSantis campaign. Big ties to IA and former strategist for Ernst.

FireAg said:

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astros4545 said:

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Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

Its been said here before, but does neither Trump nor any of his supporters realize how BAD it makes him look when he himself is constantly bragging to the world that he picked supposed "losers" and "failures" to be in his administration? Literally, by his own admission every person he chose for his administration was the worst of the worst, the bottom of the barrel, people about to get fired from their previous jobs because of incompetence.

Lol. Trump supporters, what is Trump himself saying about his judgement?

TRM said:

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FireAg said:

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DeSantis replaces campaign manager...

---

Thie bigger thing I got from this is David Polyansky officially joining the DeSantis campaign. Big ties to IA and former strategist for Ernst.

---

leftists frame it as some firing of the "campaign manager" but Generra Peck is still part of the campaign and has been joined by two other outstanding managers.

this will help even more in Iowa and getting that Ernst endorsement along with the Reynolds endorsement.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Its been said here before, but does neither Trump nor any of his supporters realize how BAD it makes him look when he himself is constantly bragging to the world that he picked supposed "losers" and "failures" to be in his administration? Literally, by his own admission every person he chose for his administration was the worst of the worst, the bottom of the barrel, people about to get fired from their previous jobs because of incompetence.

Lol. Trump supporters, what is Trump himself saying about his judgement?

---

They will say he only picked them because he was given bad advice by <insert name of some "loser" here> and it isn't his fault. Remember, a god king is infallible.

Zarathustra said:

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Agree, but the impeachments were completely political. Can't hold that against him.

---

In a perfect world I would agree with you.

but there actually have been other Republican Presidents in the history of the United States and none of them were impeached.

did the democrats suddenly in 2020 decide to play politics and go after Republicans?!

it's because Trump is an AWFUL politician and executive and has no business being in the Oval Office. He basically on January 6 was asking to get impeached at that point.

LMCane said:

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FireAg said:

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astros4545 said:

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Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

---

But one major donor struggle does not tell the entire DeSantis tale...it is a data point...

Also data points:

- Laying-off over 1/3 of his campaign staff
- Replacing his campaign manager
- Not gaining ground in polling averages

All of that points to a campaign that thinks "our arrow isn't pointing up, presently"...

aggie93 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Trump has higher negatives than Biden consistently, that's why he lost in 2020 when he lost Independents 2 to 1 and has done nothing to change that math nor does he seem to plan to.

---

Out of curiosity, how could he do that, in your view?

And if he did, wouldn't that be pandering?

---

Calm down the lunatic rants and make an attempt to act professional? Maybe talk about the future and lay out a real vision for how he is focused on fixing the problems of the country instead of wanting revenge and making up names for his opponents?

When Trump is focused and controlled he is actually pretty appealing. He can make a decent case and actually looks somewhat sympathetic because if he looks reasonable then it makes the Democrats calling him a criminal and dangerous and hundred other things look kind of foolish. He's already all in with trying to scream back louder at them though and insult back harder which fires up his base but turns off those independents.

I could probably list a half dozen other things Trump could do (and I pray he does if we are stuck with him as the nominee though it's futile) that wouldn't be pandering. If anything I think what he is doing now is pandering it's just pandering to his base that loves anything that looks like Trump is sticking his middle finger at the Left or really anyone he sees as a threat like DeSantis.

I mean I could be wrong I guess. Maybe those folks who didn't vote for him in '16 and '20 are secretly craving new curses and insults and Trump just hasn't been creative enough or gotten a sick enough of a burn to woo them.

---

if anything you are underplaying and undercounting what a complete beatdown is coming if Trump is the nominee.

Trump will lose Arizona, Georgia, likely North Carolina and Texas will be close.

that is one of the worst Presidential defeats in literally decades.

and he will demolish the chances to gain the Senate and keep the House.

so you are looking at larger leftist majorities and control of the government than from 2021-2023.

That's why I want this thread to be able to go back and point to what was being stated for YEARS regarding Trump.

If Trump does win the Presidency, I will never post again. And if he doesn't win the Presidency, there are about 30 posters who should be never heard from again.

FireAg said:

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LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

astros4545 said:

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Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

---

But one major donor struggle does not tell the entire DeSantis tale...it is a data point...

Also data points:

- Laying-off over 1/3 of his campaign staff
- Replacing his campaign manager
- Not gaining ground in polling averages

All of that points to a campaign that thinks "our arrow isn't pointing up, presently"...

---

how many campaign managers has Trump had in the last 7 years?

how many former Cabinet Members did Trump fire or quit on him?

let's compare the stability of the Trump Administration - versus the stability of the DeSantis Administration shall we?

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

astros4545 said:

---

Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

---

But one major donor struggle does not tell the entire DeSantis tale...it is a data point...

Also data points:

- Laying-off over 1/3 of his campaign staff
- Replacing his campaign manager
- Not gaining ground in polling averages

All of that points to a campaign that thinks "our arrow isn't pointing up, presently"...

---

how many campaign managers has Trump had in the last 7 years?

---

How is that relevant? Trump leads in all average polling over DeSantis...

DeSantis is trying to stay competitive...

In other words, Trump has much more margin for error than DeSantis does...

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

astros4545 said:

---

Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

---

But one major donor struggle does not tell the entire DeSantis tale...it is a data point...

Also data points:

- Laying-off over 1/3 of his campaign staff
- Replacing his campaign manager
- Not gaining ground in polling averages

All of that points to a campaign that thinks "our arrow isn't pointing up, presently"...

---

how many campaign managers has Trump had in the last 7 years?

how many former Cabinet Members did Trump fire or quit on him?

let's compare the stability of the Trump Administration - versus the stability of the DeSantis Administration shall we?

---

Got it...

And while I see where you're going with those, and believe it or not, I categorically AGREE with the point you are making, it doesn't change the fact that, as of right now, DeSantis is getting curb-stomped...

I genuinely believe that something major is going to have to happen to Trump for DeSantis to start turning serious heads...

LMCane said:

---

TRM said:

---

FireAg said:

---

DeSantis replaces campaign manager...

---

Thie bigger thing I got from this is David Polyansky officially joining the DeSantis campaign. Big ties to IA and former strategist for Ernst.

---

leftists frame it as some firing of the "campaign manager" but Generra Peck is still part of the campaign and has been joined by two other outstanding managers.

this will help even more in Iowa and getting that Ernst endorsement along with the Reynolds endorsement.

---

Very unlikely he gets an official endorsement from any of the 3 big players in Iowa or Sununu in NH because that would be bad politically for them. Those states know that being the first Caucus/Primary is a major boon for them and if they endorsed DeSantis for instance and then Trump won he might mess with that just out of spite.

So instead they just appear with him, join the "Mamas for DeSantis", sign his bus, and Grassley literally babysat their won while Dad spoke this weekend. It's pretty obvious who they prefer. Sununu also spends a LOT of time with DeSantis. They are clearly advising him and letting him use their resources.

FireAg said:

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LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

astros4545 said:

---

Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

---

But one major donor struggle does not tell the entire DeSantis tale...it is a data point...

Also data points:

- Laying-off over 1/3 of his campaign staff
- Replacing his campaign manager
- Not gaining ground in polling averages

All of that points to a campaign that thinks "our arrow isn't pointing up, presently"...

---

how many campaign managers has Trump had in the last 7 years?

how many former Cabinet Members did Trump fire or quit on him?

let's compare the stability of the Trump Administration - versus the stability of the DeSantis Administration shall we?

---

Got it...

And while I see where you're going with those, and believe it or not, I categorically AGREE with the point you are making, it doesn't change the fact that, as of right now, DeSantis is getting curb-stomped...

I genuinely believe that something major is going to have to happen to Trump for DeSantis to start turning serious heads...

---

Yes we get it, you're so concerned. The rest of us understand that there's plenty of time and all he actually really needs is the rest of the republicans to drop out and he'll be fine. If they don't, Trump probably wins, which means Biden definitely wins.

Also, if it makes it easier you can probably just copy/paste your "omg he's behind in the polls" concern troll posts, might save you some time since you're just repeating yourself every day.

FireAg said:

---

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

astros4545 said:

---

Desantis should drop out, that way trump and the 3rd~10th place contenders can have a fair fight

/cult45

---

Name calling works in the absence of facts…

Got it…

And I do not think DeSantis should drop out…but I do think he needs to make major changes to his approach…

And I think this is supported anecdotally by the fact that he laid off over 1/3 of his campaign staff along with the fact that a major donor of his called him out saying massive changes are needed…

---

I find it extremely telling how DeSantis according to some "is in trouble" because ONE major donor drops out...

while making zero posts about the dozens of major donors who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 who no longer support him.

---

But one major donor struggle does not tell the entire DeSantis tale...it is a data point...

Also data points:

- Laying-off over 1/3 of his campaign staff
- Replacing his campaign manager
- Not gaining ground in polling averages

All of that points to a campaign that thinks "our arrow isn't pointing up, presently"...

---

how many campaign managers has Trump had in the last 7 years?

how many former Cabinet Members did Trump fire or quit on him?

let's compare the stability of the Trump Administration - versus the stability of the DeSantis Administration shall we?

---

Got it...

And while I see where you're going with those, and believe it or not, I categorically AGREE with the point you are making, it doesn't change the fact that, as of right now, DeSantis is getting curb-stomped...

I genuinely believe that something major is going to have to happen to Trump for DeSantis to start turning serious heads...

---

I think it is perfectly fair to question the poll numbers for DeSantis and the direction of the campaign. That said you could also argue that NOT making changes would be even more concerning. I still think the ground game/money advantage/focus on the early primaries part of the strategy is solid but they are struggling with the national messaging. Some of that is hopeless because with Trump's legal stuff that's going to take the headlines and it seems like it has been endless (not by coincidence either). Even some of the really strong things DeSantis has done in interviews and speeches and announcements barely make a ripple because of the lack of oxygen.

That said it won't stay that way but it isn't likely to change much until at least November and probably December. I still think you are overly dramatic about the polling stuff but we have gone over that 100 times already so I really don't want to do it again. I also agree that it will take something major to turn people's heads but it is unlikely to happen soon unless it is Trump doing something that really makes people wake up to how toxic he is for the General.

FWIW I think the election stuff has helped Trump and the persecution in general but this latest story that they are looking into the $250 million from Stop the Steal could be different. That was his supporters money that seemed to vanish and a lot of folks have just forgotten about it. A thorough accounting of that money may be a real issue for Trump, maybe not legally but politically. I don't like the tactics and will never support a scumbag like Smith or anyone in this DOJ but that is the first thing I have seen that could really damage Trump because it is about what he did with his own supporters money. Have to see though, maybe he spent it all on legitimate stuff we just don't know about.

So if someone shares an opinion contrary to your own, and they provide tangible data to back up said opinion, then they are a troll?

I don't think you know what it means to "troll"...

I'm not saying RD will lose and merely throwing a bunch of opinions against the wall to see what will stick...I am backing up my opinion with real data points...

I'm sorry you don't like them...but it doesn't make them any less worthy of discussion...

Best I can tell, the title of this thread wasn't "DeSantis 2024, all others go away"...

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

---

Got it...

And while I see where you're going with those, and believe it or not, I categorically AGREE with the point you are making, it doesn't change the fact that, as of right now, DeSantis is getting curb-stomped...

I genuinely believe that something major is going to have to happen to Trump for DeSantis to start turning serious heads...

---

I think it is perfectly fair to question the poll numbers for DeSantis and the direction of the campaign. That said you could also argue that NOT making changes would be even more concerning. I still think the ground game/money advantage/focus on the early primaries part of the strategy is solid but they are struggling with the national messaging. Some of that is hopeless because with Trump's legal stuff that's going to take the headlines and it seems like it has been endless (not by coincidence either). Even some of the really strong things DeSantis has done in interviews and speeches and announcements barely make a ripple because of the lack of oxygen.

---

That, in a nutshell, is precisely where I stand...DeSantis's has a great message and solid ideas, and they are backed up by reasonable plans to achieve them...

But he has yet to get a big chunk of R-America to listen to him...

It absolutely could change as we get closer to January, but right now, it's disingenuous to assume it will change unless something "big" happens to pull Trump out of the race and create a vacuum that DeSantis is currently in the best position to immediately fill...

FireAg said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Got it...

And while I see where you're going with those, and believe it or not, I categorically AGREE with the point you are making, it doesn't change the fact that, as of right now, DeSantis is getting curb-stomped...

I genuinely believe that something major is going to have to happen to Trump for DeSantis to start turning serious heads...

---

I think it is perfectly fair to question the poll numbers for DeSantis and the direction of the campaign. That said you could also argue that NOT making changes would be even more concerning. I still think the ground game/money advantage/focus on the early primaries part of the strategy is solid but they are struggling with the national messaging. Some of that is hopeless because with Trump's legal stuff that's going to take the headlines and it seems like it has been endless (not by coincidence either). Even some of the really strong things DeSantis has done in interviews and speeches and announcements barely make a ripple because of the lack of oxygen.

---

That, in a nutshell, is precisely where I stand...DeSantis's has a great message and solid ideas, and they are backed up by reasonable plans to achieve them...

But he has yet to get a big chunk of R-America to listen to him...

It absolutely could change as we get closer to January, but right now, it's disingenuous to assume it will change unless something "big" happens to pull Trump out of the race and create a vacuum that DeSantis is currently in the best position to immediately fill...

---

Fair enough but I also think it is very likely things don't stay static until January. That would be very, very unusual. Does not mean DeSantis will win at all but I do think he will get a chance to get his message out and get a shot. When that happens we will find out. As of now though the wall is too high to climb with people distracted and the only news being about the indictments, much of DeSantis' coverage is also having to answer questions about Trump or his poll numbers. Certainly frustrating but I just don't see how that continues as we enter the time when things get serious.

Patience is the hardest thing in this kind of game though and of course it may still not work out. We just don't know either way. That's the frustrating part when people assume that "It's over!" at this point when it truly has not begun.

No Spin Ag said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Do you honestly believe that Ron DeSantis has the charisma of Barack Obama?

I'm not sure even the most ardent DeSantis supporters would make that argument...

---

Charisma? No. He has a real record and is a better debater though and has more money.

The point is that race has more similarities than 2016 because you had a front runner who was very popular against a newcomer. Hillary had more ground game and money than Trump but Obama's main asset was ground game, he was a community organizer and built everything around that style of campaign with trainees door knocking that he paid for and did small events. He saw very little traction until December and few people seriously thought he could win until then. The real turning point was making it 1v1 and debating Hillary.

Sound familiar?

---

Very.

This is why Trump and his maga want DeSantis to drop out now before things get to the point where they actually matter. Because Trump leading now means nothing over a year out.

Hell, even Biden was trailing against Bernie, but then things started changing when the people that matter (i.e., the ones that don't start paying attention to elections until the year of) and things changed very quickly.

This race is long from over, and it's still anyone's game to win.

DeSantis '24.

---

I'm old enough to remember when the leading candidate in all the polls lost Iowa, lost New Hampshire, lost Nevada and John Kerry was rumored to be replacing him.

that was 2020 and Joe Biden.

FireAg said:

---

So if someone shares an opinion contrary to your own, and they provide tangible data to back up said opinion, then they are a troll?

I don't think you know what it means to "troll"...

I'm not saying RD will lose and merely throwing a bunch of opinions against the wall to see what will stick...I am backing up my opinion with real data points...

I'm sorry you don't like them...but it doesn't make them any less worthy of discussion...

Best I can tell, the title of this thread wasn't "DeSantis 2024, all others go away"...

---

There's nothing wrong with posting criticisms of what DeSantis is doing. We've made it very clear that unlike how the Trump diehards view their hero, DeSantis is just a politician and happens to be the one that most on this thread agree with strategically and think has the best shot at winning in 2024.

What gets old for those of us actually trying to follow the campaigns is that you literally just post the exact same thing over and over again, with some weird "I'm just saying…shrug" type fake concerned tone that adds nothing to the discussion despite others pointing out why the polls are just one currently very unimportant data point. Like I said, it would be easier for you if you just copy/pasted "eyes emoji, DeSantis still down in the polls" every hour or so, which also, likely not coincidentally, aligns with the Trump campaign message that the race is already over.

Looking at the data landscape as it stands right now, it has the "feel" of Trump being the incumbent, quite honestly...

It's a very strange phenomena we are dealing with in this election cycle...only one time (Cleveland right before the turn of the century) have we had a 2-term president who did not serve in consecutive 4-year blocks...

Three others tried to do what Trump is doing (though Teddy Roosevelt was aiming for his 3rd 4-yr term after serving two terms consecutively and then sitting out the next 4 years), but no one, in the modern era (and I mean modern by rampant social media and a 24-hour news cycle) has tried it...

Almost all 1-term presidents fade away from the campaign trail...

Trump hasn't, and looking at his numbers (especially the sheer gap between him and his closest competitor), it is quite literally like he is seen as an "incumbent"...

It's a very strange phenomena indeed...

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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So if someone shares an opinion contrary to your own, and they provide tangible data to back up said opinion, then they are a troll?

I don't think you know what it means to "troll"...

I'm not saying RD will lose and merely throwing a bunch of opinions against the wall to see what will stick...I am backing up my opinion with real data points...

I'm sorry you don't like them...but it doesn't make them any less worthy of discussion...

Best I can tell, the title of this thread wasn't "DeSantis 2024, all others go away"...

---

There's nothing wrong with posting criticisms of what DeSantis is doing. We've made it very clear that unlike how the Trump diehards view their hero, DeSantis is just a politician and happens to be the one that most on this thread agree with strategically and think has the best shot at winning in 2024.

What gets old for those of us actually trying to follow the campaigns is that you literally just post the exact same thing over and over again, with some weird "I'm just saying…shrug" type fake concerned tone that adds nothing to the discussion despite others pointing out why the polls are just one currently very unimportant data point. Like I said, it would be easier for you if you just copy/pasted "eyes emoji, DeSantis still down in the polls" every hour or so, which also, likely not coincidentally, aligns with the Trump campaign message that the race is already over.

---

I've posted polling averages so as to show a trend...looking for something that points to DeSantis making inroads...

You act like I am taking one data point from one particular date and continuing to hammer that data point...

I'm looking at trends and trying to see where the inflection point might be that points the DeSanti's arrow back up..and since it isn't happening to date, I am wondering why?

That's a fair topic for conversation for those willing to have an open mind and dialog about it...those with blinders on are certainly welcome to use the "ignore" feature...

This is one of the weirdest campaign seasons ever, and the election is still well over a year away. Judging it like any other one really doesn't make sense. We have essentially 2 incumbents running against each other, both of which have very high unlikeability ratings, even in their own parties, 1 of which has multiple indictments (politically motivated, but still there and could affect the election).

I fully expect there to be multiple game changing events before the 1st primary, even.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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AggieUSMC said:

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Assuming DeSantis fails to get the nomination, I won't be because he lost it. It will be because Trump won it. There's a certain cult of personality around Trump that there is just nothing DeSantis or anyone can do to overcome.

This is unfortunate since I think Trump at the top of the ticket next year means 4 more years of Biden.

---

Be careful. Certain posters get really offended when you use the c word to describe people who are loyal only to one man and literally nothing else, insist that everything he does is correct and/or part of some grand plan, and refuse to ever say one negative thing about him.

---

FireAg said:

---

Looking at the data landscape as it stands right now, it has the "feel" of Trump being the incumbent, quite honestly...

It's a very strange phenomena we are dealing with in this election cycle...only one time (Cleveland right before the turn of the century) have we had a 2-term president who did not serve in consecutive 4-year blocks...

Three others tried to do what Trump is doing (though Teddy Roosevelt was aiming for his 3rd 4-yr term after serving two terms consecutively and then sitting out the next 4 years), but no one, in the modern era (and I mean modern by rampant social media and a 24-hour news cycle) has tried it...

Almost all 1-term presidents fade away from the campaign trail...

Trump hasn't, and looking at his numbers (especially the sheer gap between him and his closest competitor), it is quite literally like he is seen as an "incumbent"...

It's a very strange phenomena indeed...

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Very much agree this is a hard race to pin down in terms of similarities. The Hillary/Obama example is the only one I think is close but that's not perfect either. Trump definitely has incumbent like strengths similar to Hillary who wasn't an incumbent but was the wife of a 2 Termer who had by far the strongest faction within the Dem Party on her side. Just a lot of unique characteristics about this race but that also is why I am more dismissive of the polling. The legal stuff, Trump's age, and of course Trump himself and his style are just different. You also have the Media and the Dems more actively than ever trying to involve themselves in the GOP race to manipulate it.

That's why I hesitate to make too many presumptions. The only presumption I really have is I don't see any way Trump wins the General. I just don't see how anyone with his Name ID and 60+% Disapproval ratings can win, especially once he gets convicted (wrongly but it's coming) and the Media goes both barrels on him day after day while his campaign is broke. They have checkmated him and I just don't see a way to escape. Still he may well be the nominee and if so I would LOVE to be wrong. I was happy to be wrong in 2016 but that race seemed much more winnable than this and he is such a different candidate now.

Phatbob said:

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This is one of the weirdest campaign seasons ever, and the election is still well over a year away. Judging it like any other one really doesn't make sense. We have essentially 2 incumbents running against each other, both of which have very high unlikeability ratings, even in their own parties, 1 of which has multiple indictments (politically motivated, but still there and could affect the election).

I fully expect there to be multiple game changing events before the 1st primary, even.

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I'm not sure I know what to "expect", but you could very well be right…

I just don't think the current outlook for DeSantis changes "unless" something significant happens to Trump…

In other words, all things being equal, I don't see any sign of DeSantis gaining steam against Trump based purely on policy and likability…. I think Trump has to come out of (or be disqualified nationally from) the R nomination…

FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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This is one of the weirdest campaign seasons ever, and the election is still well over a year away. Judging it like any other one really doesn't make sense. We have essentially 2 incumbents running against each other, both of which have very high unlikeability ratings, even in their own parties, 1 of which has multiple indictments (politically motivated, but still there and could affect the election).

I fully expect there to be multiple game changing events before the 1st primary, even.

---

I'm not sure I know what to "expect", but you could very well be right…

I just don't think the current outlook for DeSantis changes "unless" something significant happens to Trump…

In other words, all things being equal, I don't see any sign of DeSantis gaining steam against Trump based purely on policy and likability…. I think Trump has to come out of (or be disqualified nationally from) the R nomination…

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There is a not-insignificant percent chance that both major party candidates die of old age in the next year.

Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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This is one of the weirdest campaign seasons ever, and the election is still well over a year away. Judging it like any other one really doesn't make sense. We have essentially 2 incumbents running against each other, both of which have very high unlikeability ratings, even in their own parties, 1 of which has multiple indictments (politically motivated, but still there and could affect the election).

I fully expect there to be multiple game changing events before the 1st primary, even.

---

I'm not sure I know what to "expect", but you could very well be right…

I just don't think the current outlook for DeSantis changes "unless" something significant happens to Trump…

In other words, all things being equal, I don't see any sign of DeSantis gaining steam against Trump based purely on policy and likability…. I think Trump has to come out of (or be disqualified nationally from) the R nomination…

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There is a not-insignificant percent chance that both major party candidates die of old age in the next year.

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I'd argue if I could, but that is at least one path that would create a vacuum for DeSantis to fill…but things get fuzzier should Trump have a strong early primary showing and push DeSantis to the brink of the dreaded "campaign suspension"…

Or at a minimum experience an adverse health event... but let's pretend that's out of the ordinary for 78 - 82 year olds.

DeSantis needs to stop saying so much true stuff that bothers MAGA & tell them what they want to hear like Vivek or he might lose the primary. https://t.co/nnUonsi36J

— An0maly (@LegendaryEnergy) August 7, 2023

Facts really bother Cult45

Jack Posobiec is as bat**** crazy as Loomer when it comes to Trump devotion.

FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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This is one of the weirdest campaign seasons ever, and the election is still well over a year away. Judging it like any other one really doesn't make sense. We have essentially 2 incumbents running against each other, both of which have very high unlikeability ratings, even in their own parties, 1 of which has multiple indictments (politically motivated, but still there and could affect the election).

I fully expect there to be multiple game changing events before the 1st primary, even.

---

I'm not sure I know what to "expect", but you could very well be right…

I just don't think the current outlook for DeSantis changes "unless" something significant happens to Trump…

In other words, all things being equal, I don't see any sign of DeSantis gaining steam against Trump based purely on policy and likability…. I think Trump has to come out of (or be disqualified nationally from) the R nomination…

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I think you are dismissing the fact that we are still talking about voting that is a long way off as a significant factor. It staggers me how many smart and typically engaged people I know that aren't giving any of this a thought outside of "I'll vote for the R" and maybe assuming it will be Trump. Things change as people are actually getting ready to cast a ballot. They change after the early primaries. That will shift things it's just how they shift that we don't know. You could also have the "Not Trump" vote coalesce around DeSantis though I am increasingly concerned that Trump may have cut deals with folks like Vivek, Haley, and Scott to stick around in exchange for jobs in his Admin. If they don't drop that could definitely cause DeSantis problems. Vivek is already in Trump's pocket. Haley has no job. Scott just won re-election and has nothing better to do.

Could also go the other way and they feel pressured to drop out.

Just so much we don't know. As a side note, Burgum is growing on me. I mean I freaking loved this:

The struggle is real… pic.twitter.com/8Yo7A9H1eg

— Doug Burgum (Text "DOUG" to 70177) (@DougBurgum) August 8, 2023