Yup…sure do…and why? Because the supposed "caucus pledges" is but one data point…these polls, when looking at the averages, use multiple data points…

And even still, Iowa is a terrible predictor for non-incumbent R nominees…terrible…

Watch New Hampshire…I think Mew Hampshire tells the tale…

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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They are at least opinions supported by data…I have been begging for months for folks to show me data that contradicts the polling data…

All I get is pro-DeSantis tweets and "the polls are just wrong"…no data to counter with…

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aggie93 has shown data regarding people committing to caucus for DeSantis for at least a month - over 3 times as many as Cruz had (Cruz won).

There's some data.

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That's not data…that's people saying they are going to do something with no contractual obligation to do so whatsoever…

It's encouraging for DeSantis, but it by no means reflects the attitude of the entire state, nor does it guarantee they will do as they have pledged…

It's a meaningless warm and fuzzy…

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Then why the **** are you quoting POLLS?

Those are...wait for it..."people saying they are going to do something with no contractual obligation to do so whatsoever"

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With a history (sans 2016) of being very good predictors…

Look, if DeSantis was within 10, I'd be willing to listen…he'd at least be approaching the extremist of extreme borders of "margin of error"…

But we aren't even close to that being even a point of consideration…he's getting smoked by 30 and has 46 days to narrow that gap even being on the fringe of striking distance…

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So, you discount 2016 polls being good predictors...

When the data that aggie93 has posted shows that IN 2016, Cruz, with FEWER committed caucus voters, beat Trump WHO WAS LEADING IN THE POLLS...

You don't want data. Because when you're given it, you dismiss it immediately and then point to data THAT HAS THE SAME ISSUE.

FireAg said:

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Yup…sure do…and why? Because the supposed "caucus pledges" is but one data point…these polls, when looking at the averages, use multiple data points…

And even still, Iowa is a terrible predictor for non-incumbent R nominees…terrible…

Watch New Hampshire…I think Mew Hampshire tells the tale…

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I addressed New Hampshire too.

I think DeSantis has done well vs Newsom in tonight's debate and consequently the polling should start narrowing. In other words, this isn't over yet.

You're in for a rude awakening on Jan 15…

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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They are at least opinions supported by data…I have been begging for months for folks to show me data that contradicts the polling data…

All I get is pro-DeSantis tweets and "the polls are just wrong"…no data to counter with…

---

aggie93 has shown data regarding people committing to caucus for DeSantis for at least a month - over 3 times as many as Cruz had (Cruz won).

There's some data.

---

That's not data…that's people saying they are going to do something with no contractual obligation to do so whatsoever…

It's encouraging for DeSantis, but it by no means reflects the attitude of the entire state, nor does it guarantee they will do as they have pledged…

It's a meaningless warm and fuzzy…

---

Then why the **** are you quoting POLLS?

Those are...wait for it..."people saying they are going to do something with no contractual obligation to do so whatsoever"

---

With a history (sans 2016) of being very good predictors…

Look, if DeSantis was within 10, I'd be willing to listen…he'd at least be approaching the extremist of extreme borders of "margin of error"…

But we aren't even close to that being even a point of consideration…he's getting smoked by 30 and has 46 days to narrow that gap even being on the fringe of striking distance…

---

So, you discount 2016 polls being good predictors...

When the data that aggie93 has posted shows that IN 2016, Cruz, with FEWER committed caucus voters, beat Trump WHO WAS LEADING IN THE POLLS...

You don't want data. Because when you're given it, you dismiss it immediately and then point to data THAT HAS THE SAME ISSUE.

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If you go back on this thread, he has engaged in the same circular argument multiple times.

This is why I call it poll trolling, because there is no real attempt at a discussion about the polls and underlying data. Just points at the polls dismisses anything else, and round and round you go.

Cant believe this is even a debate Trump will win easily I know I will be personally attacked by and yOU a TrOLL by desatnits supporters but its over.

FireAg said:

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You're in for a rude awakening on Jan 15…

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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LarryElder said:

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Cant believe this is even a debate Trump will win easily I know I will be personally attacked by and yOU a TrOLL by desatnits supporters but its over.

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Honest question....what's wrong with you?

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right on cue...so tiresome and old

FL_Ag1998 said:

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LarryElder said:

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Cant believe this is even a debate Trump will win easily I know I will be personally attacked by and yOU a TrOLL by desatnits supporters but its over.

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Honest question....what's wrong with you?

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only posters that call me a troll or ask whats wrong with you are DeSantis supporters go figure.

LarryElder said:

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only posters that call me a troll or ask whats wrong with you are DeSantis supporters go figure.

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Seriously, I just looked at some of your posts on other threads, too. I think you might need to go see a doctor. Can you feel both sides of your face? Is one side drooping down? In your mind are you typing out coherent thoughts formed into grammatically correct sentences with correct spelling, punctuation, etc?

FireAg said:

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You're in for a rude awakening on Jan 15…

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What rude awakening?

I have not claimed that DeSantis would win. I have stated that IF he wins, it would completely change the dynamic of the race.

If DeSantis loses, Trump will be in the driver's seat.

Of course, then we have NH. If Haley (or even DeSantis) wins there, or even loses in a very close race, it would also change the race.

Trump cannot have a loss in an early state that he is up hugely in the polls because that would mean the polls are wrong.

Trump has been running on the fact he's up big in the polls. YOU have been pointing out that he's big up in the polls...LOSING when you're up big in the polls just shows that those polls are WRONG.

Then we agree…Trump is up big and he likely won't lose…

With everything out there right now…do you think DeSantis wins or loses Iowa?

I think he loses…based on all info available…DeSantis will lose Iowa…agree or disagree?

FireAg said:

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With everything out there right now…do you think DeSantis wins or loses Iowa?

I think he loses…based on all info available…DeSantis will lose Iowa…agree or disagree?

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BUT, do you think he loses by a big margin, as your polls seem to indicate?

FL_Ag1998 said:

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FireAg said:

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With everything out there right now…do you think DeSantis wins or loses Iowa?

I think he loses…based on all info available…DeSantis will lose Iowa…agree or disagree?

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BUT, do you think he loses by a big margin, as your polls seem to indicate?

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I believe the margin will be closer than 30…perhaps by 5-7 pts…

FireAg said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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FireAg said:

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With everything out there right now…do you think DeSantis wins or loses Iowa?

I think he loses…based on all info available…DeSantis will lose Iowa…agree or disagree?

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BUT, do you think he loses by a big margin, as your polls seem to indicate?

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I believe the margin will be closer than 30…perhaps by 5-7 pts…

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So you believe the polls are widely skewed in how close Trump and DeSantis are?

All polls have margin of error, so do polling averages…

I think he wins by 20+ in Iowa…

But margin doesn't mean ****, to be frank…

You need delegates to get the nomination…it's about winning the nomination…

Margin won't mean ****…

FireAg said:

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Then we agree…Trump is up big and he likely won't lose…

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No.

I agree the polls currently show Trump up big. Period. Full stop.

Of course Hillary was up by over 3 points on election day in 2016. So, maybe polls aren't the end all be all of data...

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Then we agree…Trump is up big and he likely won't lose…

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No.

I agree the polls currently show Trump up big. Period. Full stop.

Of course Hillary was up by over 3 points on election day in 2016. So, maybe polls aren't the end all be all of data...

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2016 was an outlier, not a trend…

FireAg said:

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With everything out there right now…do you think DeSantis wins or loses Iowa?

I think he loses…based on all info available…DeSantis will lose Iowa…agree or disagree?

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I think DeSantis has a MUCH better chance than the polls are giving him.

This is due to the documented DATA of what his ground game in Iowa has done.

So, based on that, I do NOT agree that DeSantis WILL lose Iowa.

FireAg said:

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All polls have margin of error, so do polling averages…

I think he wins by 20+ in Iowa…

But margin doesn't mean ****, to be frank…

You need delegates to get the nomination…it's about winning the nomination…

Margin won't mean ****…

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I'm just trying to reconcile in my mind your opinion that Trump's margin in the polls, indisputible facts that can't be denied in your opinion is so big its a fact he'll win...yet, you also believe his actual margin of victory when it comes to the Primary will be fairly small. Or will it be by 20? Sorry, maybe I'm just not understanding your posts correctly.

Edit to say that I think I get it now...you meant the margin of victory will be closer by 5-7 points than the 30 points or so the polls show now. So you think the margin of victory will be only 20 points. Got it, sorry.

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Then we agree…Trump is up big and he likely won't lose…

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No.

I agree the polls currently show Trump up big. Period. Full stop.

Of course Hillary was up by over 3 points on election day in 2016. So, maybe polls aren't the end all be all of data...

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2016 was an outlier, not a trend…

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How do you know that 2024 is not an outlier?

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Then we agree…Trump is up big and he likely won't lose…

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No.

I agree the polls currently show Trump up big. Period. Full stop.

Of course Hillary was up by over 3 points on election day in 2016. So, maybe polls aren't the end all be all of data...

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2016 was an outlier, not a trend…

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How do you know that 2024 is not an outlier?

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I don't…but historical data indicates it's more likely to be right than an outlier…

But you keep praying for the outlier theory…Hope you're right…

Correct…think based on past polling in Iowa…the margin between 1 and 2 will be smaller than the polling indicates…I chose 5-7 because Trump had a roughly 4-5 pt lead on Cruz in 16 going into primary day, and Cruz won by just under 3…

I believe for DeSantis (or Haley) to have a chance on caucus day in Iowa, then need to be less than 10 pts from Trump in the polls…

Now they do that in the next 46 days, then game on…

I just don't know of anyone who has closed 20+ points in 6 weeks…

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Then we agree…Trump is up big and he likely won't lose…

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No.

I agree the polls currently show Trump up big. Period. Full stop.

Of course Hillary was up by over 3 points on election day in 2016. So, maybe polls aren't the end all be all of data...

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2016 was an outlier, not a trend…

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How do you know that 2024 is not an outlier?

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I don't…but historical data indicates it's more likely to be right than an outlier…

But you keep praying for the outlier theory…Hope you're right…

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Again...you love to toss that stuff out. That I'm "praying" or I'll be in for a "rude awakening".

I've acknowledged DeSantis could and may lose.

So, if he does, I won't be that surprised. But, if he wins, I ALSO won't be that surprised.

I think there's a chance that DeSantis wins in Iowa. You have guaranteed that he loses.

So, if DeSantis DOES win, it would be YOU that would be in for the rude awakening.

There was a really interesting debate going on and a certain poster was still poll trolling. That's all they do.

FireAg said:

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Correct…think based on past polling in Iowa…the margin between 1 and 2 will be smaller than the polling indicates…I chose 5-7 because Trump had a roughly 4-5 pt lead on Cruz in 16 going into primary day, and Cruz won by just under 3…

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You also think Trump will win by 20+...

Quote:

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I think he wins by 20+ in Iowa…

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Yes I do…having trouble with reading comprehension?

If the polls are off by 5-7 pts in DeSantis's favor, Trump still wins by 20+…

BigBrother said:

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There was a really interesting debate going on and a certain poster was still poll trolling. That's all they do.

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say anything other than complete support for Desantis you are trolling. goodness