Jeeper79 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Park attendance is definitely down, despite travel in general being way up globally in 2023:

Quote:

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Ok, with that out of the way, let's try to put our finger on just how "slow" it was at Walt Disney World this Memorial Day. The average wait time at Disney World during Memorial Day Weekend going back to 2016 is just over 31 minutes. If we throw out 2021, it's 32.6 minutes, and if we throw out 2016, it's over 33 minutes. Last year, the average wait time during Memorial Day Weekend was 34.5 minutes. In 2023, the average wait time was 29.25 minutes. Here's how it stacks up:

• 2023 down 6.2% vs 6-year average
• 2023 down 10.8% vs 6-year average (minus 2021)
• 2023 down 14.5% vs 5-year average (minus 2021)
• 2023 down 16.5% vs 2022

Ultimately, Memorial Day Weekend 2023 was certainly slower than last year, and noticeably below pandemic-impacted years. The average wait time of under 30 minutes is the first time that it has been below 30 minutes since 2016, not counting the pandemic era. That's not to say that you didn't wait in a long line this past weekend, because some peak wait times were still unpleasant, but on the whole, average wait times were off of their averages.

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It's not 'shut the place down' by any means, but this on top of the above noted streaming revenue/subscriber ongoing disaster is a huge problem for them, demonstrating their management again is…not real good at their core jobs. Hey, removing content and raising prices is probably fixing all that, right?

Good thing they are so great at fighting woke political wars though!

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They have been steadily raising their ticket prices throughout that period as a means of crowd control.

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This is a fair point. There was a different boss back then. Was Chapek. Now is back to Iger. Maybe it's some sort of Iger strategy, but I doubt it.

jokershady said:

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Is that in Canadian???

BigBrother said:

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jokershady said:

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BigBrother said:

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jokershady said:

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Stressboy said:

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Did you plan the trip a while back or recently? Do you mind sharing what your avg price per theme park ticket was?

The small video I saw had the podcast hosts suggesting that Disney is lowering the avg cost in half or more in some cases to fill the parks. If becomes a revenue shortfall issue.

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planned it last year....wife did most of the planning (plus we had a disney travel agent helping) so not sure of the breakdown on pricing as we also stayed at a disney resort hotel which isnt required but lots of folks do it cause it's way easier and honestly better.....

but if they lowered prices recently then we did not benefit from that cause i know we started paying this trip off monthly back in july or august of last year.....

6 days in parks....5 people (me, wife, oldest son counts as adult, and our two younger kids).....staying at the carribbean beach resort....park hopper....memory maker picture stuff.....was roughly $6,000 but assuming more than $6,000 but under $7,000.....

how much of that was just park tickets with being able to jump to different parks each day.....no idea....

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I watched it a few days ago, so my numbers might be a bit off, but the video says they were charging $170 for a single park ticket this time last year. This year, it's around $58 and they add a park hop.

They said parks still feel relatively full, but it's noticeable to those who come often.

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then we picked the WRONG time to schedule this sucker......

hindsight 20/20 blah blah blah

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Keep in mind, might be in-state price differences. I'm not sure. They're a comparison of the same thing, but not sure if it's exactly what YOU would've paid.

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that's right….I remember someone mentioning that residents of Florida get some sort of discount price….

ABattJudd said:

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BigBrother said:

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jokershady said:

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Stressboy said:

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Did you plan the trip a while back or recently? Do you mind sharing what your avg price per theme park ticket was?

The small video I saw had the podcast hosts suggesting that Disney is lowering the avg cost in half or more in some cases to fill the parks. If becomes a revenue shortfall issue.

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planned it last year....wife did most of the planning (plus we had a disney travel agent helping) so not sure of the breakdown on pricing as we also stayed at a disney resort hotel which isnt required but lots of folks do it cause it's way easier and honestly better.....

but if they lowered prices recently then we did not benefit from that cause i know we started paying this trip off monthly back in july or august of last year.....

6 days in parks....5 people (me, wife, oldest son counts as adult, and our two younger kids).....staying at the carribbean beach resort....park hopper....memory maker picture stuff.....was roughly $6,000 but assuming more than $6,000 but under $7,000.....

how much of that was just park tickets with being able to jump to different parks each day.....no idea....

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I watched it a few days ago, so my numbers might be a bit off, but the video says they were charging $170 for a single park ticket this time last year. This year, it's around $58 and they add a park hop.

They said parks still feel relatively full, but it's noticeable to those who come often.

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We have annual passes and take our daughter relatively often, especially in the summer. This is just anecdotal with no actual data, but attendance does seem way down.

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What is $58 a day? Definitely not a ticket to any Disney park unless bought at some offsite timeshare presentation that takes half a day of high pressure sales.

Was going by the video, but just a quick search shows this:

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/destinations/florida-residents-tickets-passes/

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Special Ticket Offer for Florida Residents

Enjoy theme park fun with a 4-Day Disney Summer Magic Ticket for just $58 per day, plus tax (total price: $229 plus tax). A 3-day ticket is also available.

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BigBrother said:

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Jeeper79 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Park attendance is definitely down, despite travel in general being way up globally in 2023:

Quote:

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Ok, with that out of the way, let's try to put our finger on just how "slow" it was at Walt Disney World this Memorial Day. The average wait time at Disney World during Memorial Day Weekend going back to 2016 is just over 31 minutes. If we throw out 2021, it's 32.6 minutes, and if we throw out 2016, it's over 33 minutes. Last year, the average wait time during Memorial Day Weekend was 34.5 minutes. In 2023, the average wait time was 29.25 minutes. Here's how it stacks up:

• 2023 down 6.2% vs 6-year average
• 2023 down 10.8% vs 6-year average (minus 2021)
• 2023 down 14.5% vs 5-year average (minus 2021)
• 2023 down 16.5% vs 2022

Ultimately, Memorial Day Weekend 2023 was certainly slower than last year, and noticeably below pandemic-impacted years. The average wait time of under 30 minutes is the first time that it has been below 30 minutes since 2016, not counting the pandemic era. That's not to say that you didn't wait in a long line this past weekend, because some peak wait times were still unpleasant, but on the whole, average wait times were off of their averages.

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It's not 'shut the place down' by any means, but this on top of the above noted streaming revenue/subscriber ongoing disaster is a huge problem for them, demonstrating their management again is…not real good at their core jobs. Hey, removing content and raising prices is probably fixing all that, right?

Good thing they are so great at fighting woke political wars though!

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They have been steadily raising their ticket prices throughout that period as a means of crowd control.

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This is a fair point. There was a different boss back then. Was Chapek. Now is back to Iger. Maybe it's some sort of Iger strategy, but I doubt it.

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(Below is partially a response to Jeeper): They just gutted their prices last month (for everyone). Florida residents pay down to 58 bucks a day I think. Even the most strident company/brand fans know prices have dropped significantly as has the company's reputation.

Plummeting stock prices, eliminating whole departments, outsourcing operations to third party providers, dropping attendance, and cutting product prices. Not my opinion, click the links. That's Disney 2023.

Parks will probably 'comparatively' fill up this summer on that basis, but the narrative that they are just raising prices while having 'normal' Disney types of crowds is just wrong. "Fake news" as some would say.

nortex97 said:

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BigBrother said:

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Jeeper79 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Park attendance is definitely down, despite travel in general being way up globally in 2023:

Quote:

---

Ok, with that out of the way, let's try to put our finger on just how "slow" it was at Walt Disney World this Memorial Day. The average wait time at Disney World during Memorial Day Weekend going back to 2016 is just over 31 minutes. If we throw out 2021, it's 32.6 minutes, and if we throw out 2016, it's over 33 minutes. Last year, the average wait time during Memorial Day Weekend was 34.5 minutes. In 2023, the average wait time was 29.25 minutes. Here's how it stacks up:

• 2023 down 6.2% vs 6-year average
• 2023 down 10.8% vs 6-year average (minus 2021)
• 2023 down 14.5% vs 5-year average (minus 2021)
• 2023 down 16.5% vs 2022

Ultimately, Memorial Day Weekend 2023 was certainly slower than last year, and noticeably below pandemic-impacted years. The average wait time of under 30 minutes is the first time that it has been below 30 minutes since 2016, not counting the pandemic era. That's not to say that you didn't wait in a long line this past weekend, because some peak wait times were still unpleasant, but on the whole, average wait times were off of their averages.

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It's not 'shut the place down' by any means, but this on top of the above noted streaming revenue/subscriber ongoing disaster is a huge problem for them, demonstrating their management again is…not real good at their core jobs. Hey, removing content and raising prices is probably fixing all that, right?

Good thing they are so great at fighting woke political wars though!

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They have been steadily raising their ticket prices throughout that period as a means of crowd control.

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This is a fair point. There was a different boss back then. Was Chapek. Now is back to Iger. Maybe it's some sort of Iger strategy, but I doubt it.

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(Below is partially a response to Jeeper): They just gutted their prices last month (for everyone). Florida residents pay down to 58 bucks a day I think. Even the most strident company/brand fans know prices have dropped significantly as has the company's reputation.

Plummeting stock prices, eliminating whole departments, outsourcing operations to third party providers, dropping attendance, and cutting product prices. Not my opinion, click the links. That's Disney 2023.

Parks will probably 'comparatively' fill up this summer on that basis, but the narrative that they are just raising prices while having 'normal' Disney types of crowds is just wrong. "Fake news" as some would say.

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The real sad part about this is that this is just Disney failing to understand their audience the same way Bud Light did. Bud Light WAS a "fratty" brand, and they became the best selling beer in America because of that image, clever advertising, and price point setting. They decided they "didn't want to be fratty anymore" and took a dump on their existing customers pretty publicly, in order to chase a miniscule market share from a group not known for large scale beer consumption.

Disney has done largely the same overall. For decades, they were the "kid-safe" alternative to what was on TV, in the movies, etc. A parent could take their kid to a Disney movie or plop them down in front of the Disney channel and not have to worry about what topics might cross the screen that would confuse their kid or lead to discussion of issues that the parent didn't think their kid was old enough to deal with. They made their entire brand and success out of parents looking for that wholesome entertainment option for their kids in the face of other entertainment options going increasingly towards f-bombs and sexually suggestive programming. And all it has taken is a few people in their senior leadership deciding to "gay it up every chance they get" in their programming and to attack legislation aimed at giving parents control over when their kids are confronted with discussions of alternate sexualities to ruin that rep.

Their market was parents looking for wholesome entertainment. They decided to dump on that market to court the very small market of people looking for their kids to learn about alternate sexualities via cartoons and kids shows. It hasn't worked out for them and should be taught as a lesson in business schools for years to come about how not to dump on your existing customers while looking for new ones.

Disney WAS raising prices -- significantly so. Not just tickets, either. Food, lodging and parking prices went up, too. And a whole host of free perks were slashed; for example, Magical Express, the primary transportation service from the airport to the resorts, was eliminated.

The company was clearly trying to make up for revenue lost during Covid.

However ...

These recent promotions and price cuts are a signal that Disney doesn't expect the weak demand experienced through Memorial Day to go away any time soon. And it's also clear that Universal is gaining steam.

Even if revenue wasn't impacted much, a loss of 3 million visitors vs. 2019 at the Magic Kingdom is significant, especially since there was such pent-up demand for travel in 2022.

Disney was raising prices before Covid because they could and people still paid to come. The price increases included the introduction of variable pricing depending on day of week and time of year.

Quote:

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These recent promotions and price cuts are a signal that Disney doesn't expect the weak demand experienced through Memorial Day to go away any time soon. And it's also clear that Universal is gaining steam.

Even if revenue wasn't impacted much, a loss of 3 million visitors vs. 2019 at the Magic Kingdom is significant, especially since there was such pent-up demand for travel in 2022.

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Last I heard, Disney has about 200 million in working capital. But they also have to complete the purchase of the remianing Comcast (meaning Universal) share of HULU by the beginning of newt year. The estimates for that range from low end of 9 billion to a high of 23 bllion. They are already highly leveraged, facing multiple legal actions by disgruntled shareholders and now the institutional investors holding their bonds are getting quite concerned, too.

Disney is facing major hurdles here.

That is basically the same offer they have made the last few years and only Florida residents can purchase.

And now CFO Christine McCarthy is stepping down, reportedly for a family medical leave of absence.

200 million is barely sufficient for day to day operations for an organization that size.

Had a family member at Disney World last week. Someone who knows the parks very well -- former cast member, multiple visits over the years. Told me yesterday that attendance was down noticeably at all four parks.

Bought Genie+ first day and didn't the rest of the week "because we didn't need to." Wait times were significantly less than in summers past.

Anecdotal, of course. But interesting nonetheless.

nortex97 said:

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200 million is barely sufficient for day to day operations for an organization that size.

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Exactly. Not with their debt service, anyway. They shut down that Star Wars hotel attraction, which cost a billion dollars. They cut the cord on the Nonah Towers project even though 2/3rds of that cost would be padi by the state and other entities.

Not exactly fire sale time but they are getting close to it. In the meantime, Universal is killing it in both their movie releases and park attendance. And striking the deal with Brightline to run a rail spur from Miami and Orlando airports to their new parks next to the Orange County Convention Center (number two behind Las Vegas for convention destinations) will be huge in the years to come.

At some point they’ll get sick of wasting their shareholders’ money… https://t.co/09nKLBhiB5

— Rita Panahi (@RitaPanahi) June 18, 2023

"Pixar's new movie is so bad it makes me worry about the studio's future."

I see that the OP hasn't been back in a while.

Disney stock is at an 8 year low. Big mistake by Desantis. LOL

Logos Stick said:

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I see that the OP hasn't been back in a while.

Disney stock is at an 8 year low. Big mistake by Desantis. LOL

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Disney is the one that made a big mistake. And now so much other financial stuff has come out just because they picked this fight.

aggiehawg said:

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Logos Stick said:

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I see that the OP hasn't been back in a while.

Disney stock is at an 8 year low. Big mistake by Desantis. LOL

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Disney is the one that made a big mistake. And now so much other financial stuff has come out just because they picked this fight.

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The theme parks are the bright spot on their balance sheet. Nobody needs a fight with a governor, but the biggest reasons Disney is hurting are loss of cable revenue from people cutting the cord and loss/max-out of streaming subscribers which is a problem all streamers are facing.

Jeeper79 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Logos Stick said:

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I see that the OP hasn't been back in a while.

Disney stock is at an 8 year low. Big mistake by Desantis. LOL

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Disney is the one that made a big mistake. And now so much other financial stuff has come out just because they picked this fight.

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The theme parks are the bright spot on their balance sheet. Nobody needs a fight with a governor, but the biggest reasons Disney is hurting are loss of cable revenue from people cutting the cord and loss/max-out of streaming subscribers which is a problem all streamers are facing.

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Disney+ was at 170 million subscribers in Q2 of 2023. In Q2 of 2020, they had a total of 35 million. That's an increase of 485% in just three years!!

The total adult population in the US is about 250 million.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Rumors this week were that Disney was considering (in executive sessions so no SEC reporting requirement) that the Saudis may offer to buy the Star Wars entities. Now, there are monimental contractual complications with such a purchase, especially by a foreign national such as a Saudi Prince. So let us table that notion for the time being.

Turning to the media arms, which would be easier and cleaner to sell to raise capital? ESPN, ABC News, or the Fox entertainment properties? And more to the point, would such a sale ameliorate their cash flow issues in preparation for consummation of the Hulu deal?

aggiehawg said:

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Rumors this week were that Disney was considering (in executive sessions so no SEC reporting requirement) that the Saudis may offer to buy the Star Wars entities. Now, there are monimental contractual complications with such a purchase, especially by a foreign national such as a Saudi Prince. So let us table that notion for the time being.

Turning to the media arms, which would be easier and cleaner to sell to raise capital? ESPN, ABC News, or the Fox entertainment properties? And more to the point, would such a sale ameliorate their cash flow issues in preparation for consummation of the Hulu deal?

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Clay Travis had a great point about ESPN.

There is not a lot of value as a streaming service for ESPN. The reason is that there is no historical content that will be consumed. People don't go back and watch old sports games. New generations don't watch old sporting events. They do watch old movies and TV type series on Disney+ and Netflix though. They have historical IP that is very valuable. Not so with ESPN. ESPN is simply a bunch of talking heads and some camera equipment transmitting realtime games.

I was hoping the SEC would buy some 4k equipment, hire some top notch broadcasters, buy some streaming infrastructure from Google or Amazon and launch their own service.

The crazy thing is Disney can fix all of this. Focus on entertainment and minimize politics in all of their programs and they have the best sports and kids programming anywhere. Instead they have focused on burning it down. Eventually they will become a shadow of their former glory unless they change course fast and they seem to have no intention of doing so.

Give your customer what they want don't try to force them to buy what you want them to buy. Ignore that and someone else will listen to your customers and take them from you. It's not complicated.

Interesting. I really don't know. Their stakes in various entities are all probably under consideration, from Pixar, Lucas Films, ESPN, to the parks themselves (note again they don't own the parks in most of the world).

There were rumors they'd spin off ESPN (partially/wholly) in December, but I think those are unlikely this year if only because it would be tough to get 'maximum' value for such a distressed asset. Clay Travis has been on them for many years about how silly the ESPN contracts/model is moving forward, for stuff like LHN/college/pro sports etc. The underlying problem as I understand it is that regardless of the platform (Hulu/youtubetv etc), ESPN is maxed out in what the subscribers pay vs. all other channels/packages, and they can't get more for it (rather, less is much more likely).

They're losing their lunch on a lot of that stuff, and while a gambling related spin off might make a lot of logical sense (Saudi's again with the PGA/LIV stuff?), my guess is their real 'solution' will be more bonds/stock issuances to push this down the road for the next leadership team to deal with. Usual caveat, I'm not a stock picker, I just find this interesting/amusing, given the push to personalize this from the left as all about De Santis vs. Disney, which is crazy even by today's standards of fake news.

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They're losing their lunch on a lot of that stuff, and while a gambling related spin off might make a lot of logical sense (Saudi's again with the PGA/LIV stuff?), my guess is their real 'solution' will be more bonds/stock issuances to push this down the road for the next leadership team to deal with.

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I am not a financial person either but i do know a little bit about securities laws and bond offerings. Disney is already highly leveraged. I am not sure how much Treasury stock they retain, nor is there much apetite for buying it out there, either. Their institutional bond holders are nervous too. So corporate bond sales is an iffy proposition, too.

Not saying they are tapped out leverage wise but that's not the question facing them. Can they leverage their way out of this under the current circumstances? Would the bang be worth the buck? Would it be enough?

The finance guys who follow Disney closely don't think so, from what I have seen.

Again it's very interesting, I dunno. The panic about it all from folks I consider far left partisans over the past few months makes me think they are really in a bad spot, and the real 'nail in the coffin' to my opinion (and that's all it is) is the rapid/sudden departure of the CFO for 'family reasons' (of course).

They've quite deliberately made themselves a political target, over many years, for conservatives and perhaps most of the Florida population of adult/middle income parents even. It's baffling, but again Iger had wanted to run for president I'd read back in around 2018 or so. They have some real business challenges of his team's making in front of them, imho.

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They've quite deliberately made themselves a political target, over many years, for conservatives and perhaps most of the Florida population of adult/middle income parents even. It's baffling, but again Iger had wanted to run for president I'd read back in around 2018 or so. They have some real business challenges of his team's making in front of them, imho.

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It's not as much about politics for the institutional investors anymore, however. It is about the bottom line and the stability of their investments.

Disney is moving their movie schedule back. The excuse is the writer's strike and that is reasonable to a degree. Disney has moved up the release of Deadpool 3, however. Is that because they really don't have that much else in production? Hard to say. Some projects will just be cancelled, more likely.

Update: Disney DEI officer of 6 years…permanently gone…during homosexuality pride month.

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Under Newton's watch, Disney implemented "woke" policies that have alienated many core customers. These policies included removing gender-specific language; for example, the greeting "Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls" was eliminated from the iconic Magic Kingdom fireworks show to promote "inclusivity."
At the time, Newton said:

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"We want to create that magical moment with our cast members, with our guests. And we don't want to just assume because someone might be in, our interpretation, may be presenting as female that they may not want to be 'princess.'"

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Per Newton's initiatives, Disney also made changes to dress-up boutiques, replacing "Fairy Godmothers in Training" with "Fairy Godmother's Apprentices" to accommodate individuals who are not women or are biologically women but use other terminology.
According to Streaming the Magic, a Disney blog:

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"This way, cast members that might not identify as female can still be part of the process to dress up & style the children without having to refer to themselves as a female Disney character."

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During Newton's tenure, Disney introduced homosexual characters with various gender identities, such as transgender and non-binary, into its animated series and films. The company also made changes to traditional characters, like dressing Minnie Mouse in a pantsuit instead of her traditional dress.

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Hit the road, Latondra.

She looks like the classic power hungry psycho female who is completely obsessed with herself and her career. These women just scream "stay far far away".

I am somehow reminded of the story of how janet jackson way back when got silicone implants…in her stomach so that she looked like she had a six pack. I don't know if that's even true but it always struck me as one of the funniest shallow hollywood stories I'd ever heard of.

Now, I am waiting for the Disney story of the plastic surgeon/mutilator princess thing who makes kids dreams come true by chopping off their genitals etc.

DISNEY LOSSES: Disney has lost nearly $900 million on its past eight studio releases, including "The Little Mermaid" and "Guardians of the Galaxy," according to a report. MORE: https://t.co/s5q7a5Js5m pic.twitter.com/okcVmzuhC6

— Brad Porcellato (@BradPorcellato) June 26, 2023

nortex97 said:

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DISNEY LOSSES: Disney has lost nearly $900 million on its past eight studio releases, including "The Little Mermaid" and "Guardians of the Galaxy," according to a report. MORE: https://t.co/s5q7a5Js5m pic.twitter.com/okcVmzuhC6

— Brad Porcellato (@BradPorcellato) June 26, 2023

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Wow. It is almost like "gaying it up every chance they get" wasn't the best strategy for long term success with programming aimed at families wanting wholesome entertainment for their kids. Or as Glenn Reynolds is fond of saying...get woke, go broke.

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I was hoping the SEC would buy some 4k equipment, hire some top notch broadcasters, buy some streaming infrastructure from Google or Amazon and launch their own service.

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They may when the SEC Network contract is up. But for now, SEC gets 50% of the revenue without any cost. There was cost shared up front, but the SEC Network made so much money, that cost share is over.

AL.com article FROM 2015

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Knowing it had an army of passionate viewers up its sleeve, the SEC Network negotiated an aggressive subscriber fee of $1.30 or $1.40, depending on the provider, for its 30 million in-market subscribers. That's significantly higher than either the Big Ten or Pac-12 network rates. When adding a $0.25 out-of-market rate (outside SEC footprint), the network has an average subscriber fee of $0.66 in the 66 million subscriber homes it averaged in its first year, according to SNL Kagan.

On the conservative end, that's $576 million in revenue without even factoring in advertising.

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That was in 2015. I don't know what Dish or Direct TV pay, but Comcast now pays ESPN $1.40 to cover SEC Network.

Plus, while ESPN is bleeding cash, they are extremely good at advertising. Losing them as a partner would be pretty big. Will be interesting to see what happens when that contract is close to expiring.

By the way, had the SEC courted USC/UCLA, that revenue would have skyrocketed.

Quote:

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Wow. It is almost like "gaying it up every chance they get" wasn't the best strategy for long term success with programming aimed at families wanting wholesome entertainment for their kids. Or as Glenn Reynolds is fond of saying...get woke, go broke.

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No doubt. Disney thought their main customer was the rich liberal white woman and their kids. They didn't realize that showing gay porn to these parent's kids would result in them saying "enough is enough".

Too bad their stock is not at zero.