G. hirsutum Ag said:

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People are learning that farming is a lot harder than they realized. Razor thin margins are the only way we survive. That and the entire nations supply of hemp can be grown on like 27,000 acres which is nothing

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The first rule of farming is to get out of growing and get into a market segment that gets to make a small markup on the commodity churn. That is why the farmers struggle, but the feedmill is usually pretty stable.

The money in pot isn't growing it. The money is in distributing it.

I think we have 7 dispensaries for 127k people.


They do a very nice business.
Especially the ones next to pizza places.

"Maybe not so many pot smokers after all? Appeasing a screaming minority, and media feeding it?"

Obviously this is an extremely small sample of just one couples experience, at one shop, but I'll say this. Every time my wife and I have flown into San Jose to go to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, we have stopped at Airfield Supply, right by the airport, to stock up on THC/CBD gummies. They help my arthritis and also let me sleep like a rock.

The half dozen times we have gone in there in the mid morning, the line has been virtually out the door. People stream in and out of that place like our local Chick-fil-A.

Our state and local governments are starved for money. They aren't legalizing these products due to a principled stance on the benefits of trade, freedom of choice, or bodily autonomy rather they need the tax revenue to continue their power play and meet their political ends

tysker said:

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Our state and local governments are starved for money. They aren't legalizing these products due to a principled stance on the benefits of trade, freedom of choice, or bodily autonomy rather they need the tax revenue to continue their power play and meet their political ends

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Uhhhh no. ..

PA24 said:

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Stuff is one of the reason we are heading to hell at warp speed.

Will absolutely slow your development especially in the brain.

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Have you seen what alcohol does to brains? How about contact sports?





(CTE)

As far as California, we already had the medical weed farce so there was no need for recreational legalization.

I went to Denver in September 2021 for the A&M Football game against Colorado and driving down East Colfax, it looked like there was a pot shop on every corner. So it wouldn't surprise me to hear that the legal market is saturated.

Or over supply

zephyr88 said:

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I just want the right to (legally) grow a little backyard boogie in my garden alongside my tomatoes and okra.

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This is what I want as well. I'd like to be able to grow something that I could barter with.

fc2112 said:

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No one coulda seen this coming, no?

No, you can't just legalize it, tax it heavily and move on. Economics happen.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ganja-glut-excess-weed-growers-seek-interstate-sales-98705910

Quote:

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Across the Columbia River in Oregon, where the state's top marijuana regulator recently warned of an "existential crisis" in the industry, it's an open secret some licensed growers have funneled product to the out-of-state black market just to stay afloat.

California's "Apple store of weed," MedMen, is teetering with millions in unpaid bills, while the Canadian cannabis company Curaleaf has shuttered most of its cultivation operations in California, Oregon and Colorado.

Along the West Coast, which dominated U.S. marijuana production long before states began to legalize it, producers face what many call the failed economics of legal pot.

"I'm at rock bottom," said Jeremy Moberg, who owns CannaSol Farms in north-central Washington and, like many licensed growers, complains that the state's 37% cannabis tax leaves virtually no profit margin for producers. "I'm tired of running a failing business."

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Only liberals could ever screw something like legal cannabis up. It's so insanely expensive, due mostly to outrageous taxes on product, and black market weed is so abundant, that it's a no brainer for locals. Dispensaries pretty much only make money off of weed tourists from out of state and the upper class locals, who don't mind paying 2-3x for 1/8 oz of weed than they would just buying it from a local dealer

Welcome to the narrow margin business of agricultural commodities. People irrationally based their legal business models on prohibition prices.

Just a few points to make.
1. Black Market =/= Cartel market: black markets consist of everything traded without govt oversights/collections. Could be a cartel guy, could be your neighbors 50 year hobby of growing exceptional sensimilla. Black markets are free markets.

2. Legal weed and black market weed can both suffer from the same problems, over supply driving prices down, a new pest that ruins quality of crops, grower errors, etc. Black market weed is lower risk with regards to bankruptcy and state seizures compared to legal weed in most states.

The burden of the white market allows only a few players to play and lower quality products at heightened prices with little margin. You're only going to find the McDonalds of Annalise succeeding, low quality products (but consistent) and churn and burn mentality.

Sucks. Best to find yourself a quality grower and help fund him directly.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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Owlagdad said:

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Maybe not so many pot smokers after all? Appeasing a screaming minority, and media feeding it?
Lol, just let us smoke, get married and we will leave you alone.

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this is a terrible analogy. comparing homosexuals and what that has turned into with transsexual terrorist is not the same as pot. as others have explained it is Supply vs demand. you can't have a shop for every 3 people that buy MJ. the market is totally saturated due to the novelty and recent legalization. coupe that with 37% taxes and you will have an economic problem.

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There will always be some ******* attempting to use a movement to push their own ends. It happens.

Buford T. Justice said:

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It's simple economics….supply is greater than the demand.

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Lol no. It's simple economics. A product with a 37% tax can't compete with a competitor that isn't taxed at all

It'll never be profitable while the southern border is a sieve and the black market is largely decriminalized

Jack Boyett said:

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Farming is hard. Margins are slim. There was no way mj was going to be a lucrative business. Niche commodity that can be grown anywhere.

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It is a weed... Go to any trailer park.. Find the back door of a mobile home and look around.

Tanya 93 said:

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I think we have 7 dispensaries for 127k people.


They do a very nice business.
Especially the ones next to pizza places.

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Made me laugh, thanks for the humor.

RoadkillBBQ said:

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Teslag said:

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Another thread where small government "conservatives" want to ban a **** plant

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Amazing how many folks don't mind limiting freedoms and invite government oversite and regulation when convenient.

And no, I don't smoke pot.

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If the potheads are upset, then the right pigs are squealing.

OregonAggie said:

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ToddyHill said:

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I don't buy the high tax comment at all. One gallon of 193 proof food grade Ethanol costs about $2.75 to $3.00 (less than a gallon of milk). The Federal excise tax on that gallon of alcohol is about $26. And that tax doesn't stop people from buying vodka, bourbon, etc.

To me this is all about the lack of demand.

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I think it's a bit of both Lack of Demand and also the sheer number of entrants to a market.

Every state looked at the revenue of Colorado and thought they could replicate it, but Colorado is an interesting example because of the tourism aspect of the state. Oregon and Washington just aren't as easy to access as Colorado and people don't flock there for wi yet or summer vacations. I think that's really helped Colorado.

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Sort of. Portland used to be a bigger tourist market city, but that has changed since the rioters and the Liberal DA have made a mockery of the city. If it were lower crime, there'd likely be a bigger demand.

techno-ag said:

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RoadkillBBQ said:

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Teslag said:

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Another thread where small government "conservatives" want to ban a **** plant

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Amazing how many folks don't mind limiting freedoms and invite government oversite and regulation when convenient.

And no, I don't smoke pot.

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If the potheads are upset, then the right pigs are squealing.

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I also don't use it as I'm tested weekly. I just the loathe the big government liberals that want to keep it banned

D-Fens said:

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You can already buy Detla 8 THC (from hemp) in flower, gummy, vape form almost everywhere. Why not make Delta 9 THC (from weed) legal also?

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It is … currently.

Kansas Kid said:

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Sumlins Pool Guy said:

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Eh I know several people who started smoking when it became legal


Also 37% sales tax isn't the free market

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Have you seen the taxes on your cell phone bill or taxes and government fees on rental cars? Yes it is high, but I don't see how that affects the issue of the free market resulting in way too many getting into the business resulting in inefficient businesses shutting down.

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Because the black market is much cheaper than obtaining it legally after taxes are added. And because you will no longer be prosecuted for obtaining it illegally there is zero incentive to pay the full taxed price to get it

This is why it's failing.

Yeah I don't think most people realize that most of the black market is legal products being sold under the table. The same thing happened with the mob and cigarette taxes. Why? Like many folks have pointed out, supply is too high. Eventually they will start regulating farm to store tracking (OK just rolled it out). This will start to force supply down since it will make selling under the table hard.

Two long paragraphs saying the same thing Owl said, "Maybe not so many pot smokers after all?"

Teslag said:

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Another thread where small government "conservatives" want to ban a ****ing plant

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Who said it should be banned in this thread? While I haven't finished reading the thread, I haven't seen those posts previous to this post. Were they removed?

The regulatory burden of growing legally in California makes it cost prohibitive to try and do legally. The black market has no such burdens, and as such is a much better avenue for profit. As long as the black market thrives, the legal market will struggle. As long as the legal market carries so much added cost just from the regulatory requirements, the black market will continue to thrive.

Supply and demand is as real as gravity and not to be messed with..

kb2001 said:

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The regulatory burden of growing legally in California makes it cost prohibitive to try and do legally. The black market has no such burdens, and as such is a much better avenue for profit. As long as the black market thrives, the legal market will struggle. As long as the legal market carries so much added cost just from the regulatory requirements, the black market will continue to thrive.

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The legal market isn't struggling. It's a relatively new market, and the original people who went into the production side are finding there are probably too many companies producing right now. Adjustments will be made. The retail side of the business is doing well. It's just the producers that are going through the challenges.

There are significant numbers of people who have little interest in taking on the risk of dealing with black market sales when there are legal ways of sourcing. It might be cheaper, but it comes with risk.

It's also a time of relatively high inflation. A lot of people who used to travel to the states where it's legal aren't travelling as much as they used to. Pocketbooks are stressed, and places like Portland aren't thought of as safe since the rioters have gone unchecked.

There's a patchwork of legal conditions from state to state. If they all had legal cannabis, you'd see the black market dwindle. It won't ever completely go away, but it will for the most part. I don't know many people that deal with moonshiners to get liquor. They go to the liquor store. Most people who smokebuy their cigarettes legally in a retail setting. There are black markets for these and other commodities, but they are very small relatively.

With gummies being so popular, are there black market sources of those (not the D8 ones in Texas).

B-1 83 said:

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With gummies being so popular, are there black market sources of those (not the D8 ones in Texas).

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When you can get D9 ones just the same, they're pretty close as to what you'd get in CO/CA etc