I'm assuming by finite you mean the quantity or total amount of currency. How can currency be finite in a growing country? More people, more buildings, more goods, more services, more consumption; how could the amount of currency used to finance this be finite when growth is unending?

Fix the amount of currency and deflation begins.

You've been fed too much Keynesian.

In your opinion, is our lust for constant economic growth a net positive or net negative for society?

Pepper Brooks said:

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In your opinion, is our lust for constant economic growth a net positive or net negative for society?

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In my opinion it is not a lust for economic growth but rather is economic growth necessitated by our population growth.

The US population has tripled in the last 100 years. That creates need and opportunity. It also requires more dollars or everything is selling for pennies on the 1920 dollar.

No increase in population, much, much less need and opportunity for economic gain.

🎯 The faster users exit USD, the faster USD inflates. The faster USD inflates, the faster users exit USD.

Now factor in how never b4 in human history has it been easier to exit USD, and you can see how serious things are about to get. https://t.co/r2wotqLCe6

— Jason Lowery (@JasonPLowery) April 6, 2023

Good reminder of the burdens being born in this process.

Now imagine strong leadership ties trade and market access plus defense to the USD.

Most of these weakass countries would reject it.

Then tie in visas and work permits.

Then remediation payments.

Adverse Event said:

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🎯 The faster users exit USD, the faster USD inflates. The faster USD inflates, the faster users exit USD.

Now factor in how never b4 in human history has it been easier to exit USD, and you can see how serious things are about to get. https://t.co/r2wotqLCe6

— Jason Lowery (@JasonPLowery) April 6, 2023

Good reminder of the burdens being born in this process.

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Dude looks like a 26 y/o Saul Goodman

I agree that demand for basic human necessities(food, shelter, medicine, energy, etc.) have a high correlation with population growth. I agree that demand for luxuries( everything else) has some correlation with population growth.

I do not believe we need to control the tap of our money supply to maintain a functioning society. Do you believe deflation is more harmful to the average consumer than the inflation we're currently seeing?

Amazing how quickly Biden has destroyed things. IN a proxy war with Russia. About to see the kickoff of ww3 and China. Will likely also cause the Dollar to be destroyed so they can implement FedCoin and control every single transaction you ever make. Even tax your allowance you pay your kids...

Signel said:

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Amazing how quickly Biden has destroyed things. IN a proxy war with Russia. About to see the kickoff of ww3 and China. Will likely also cause the Dollar to be destroyed so they can implement FedCoin and control every single transaction you ever make. Even tax your allowance you pay your kids...

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don't worry, they'll pay your kids for you. Just shut up and eat your daily allotment of insects, or else.

Deflation could be devastating to an economy. Who is going to invest to produce a good in the future that they forecast is going to sell for less than it does today?The time lag between the creation of the required infrastructure and purchase of inputs essentially guarantees a loss. Better off sitting on your cash. Everything comes to a screeching halt. That's why the fed targets a reasonable rate of inflation with their policies rather than stagflation or deflation.

This dedollarization thing is overblown.

Point #1: The percentage of central bank reserves currently in US Dollars or Treasuries is 60%. The highest it's ever been in 50 years is 65%. The second highest is the Euro at about 20%.

Point #2: So China wants to buy oil from KSA in Yuan. Ok. Total yearly petro sales in China are roughly 1% of their US Treasury holdings.

Point #3: Central banks have been buying record amounts of gold for 30 years now. This change has been happening for quite some time now. It's just now you're seeing it on Fox.

Point #4: Doesn't everyone here agree that US based manufacturing is a good thing? Hell isn't that what won Trump the election in 2016? Then you should be rooting for the US dollar to lose reserve currency status. For the last 60 years our main export has been dollars while we make less and less stuff domestically.

So chill out.

This is a difficult conversation to have on a message board because of its complexity.

Looking at population growth, you must have more money in the supply to offset the additional GDP. Let's say we decided to freeze the money supply in 1920, even though our population went on to triple since then. Presuming the number of homes have tripled in that same time frame, the value of a home today would be 1/3 what it was in 1920, since no dollars would be added to offset the larger inventory. The problem is, a lot of other things changed in addition to population growth. As technology advanced, you would have had to rob Peter to pay Paul to pay for these new items, causing even greater deflation.

No air conditioning in 1920, where do you get the the dollars to pay for that advancement unless you take it from existing goods and services? Where do you get the money to pay for air travel, televisions, computers, cell phones, medical breakthroughs and all the other advancements that did not exist in 1920 with its small number of dollars in the money supply?

Deflation would generally track with GDP growth. How would like 3% deflation for 100 years? Do the math on that; it's about $0.05 on the dollar.

Money is like food, if you have more people, you need more of it unless everyone consumes less.

La Bamba said:

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This dedollarization thing is overblown.

Point #1: The percentage of central bank reserves currently in US Dollars or Treasuries is 60%. The highest it's ever been in 50 years is 65%. The second highest is the Euro at about 20%.

Point #2: So China wants to buy oil from KSA in Yuan. Ok. Total yearly petro sales in China are roughly 1% of their US Treasury holdings.

Point #3: Central banks have been buying record amounts of gold for 30 years now. This change has been happening for quite some time now. It's just now you're seeing it on Fox.

Point #4: Doesn't everyone here agree that US based manufacturing is a good thing? Hell isn't that what won Trump the election in 2016? Then you should be rooting for the US dollar to lose reserve currency status. For the last 60 years our main export has been dollars while we make less and less stuff domestically.

So chill out.

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Yeah chill the f out.

But also breathlessly identify the best value saving investments as quickly as humanly possible b4 its thrice as costly or more.

But also, learn to balance the anxiety with an appropriate amount of insurmountable existential dread.

I agree with your first sentence and it's why I generally don't engage on here. I understand how you came to your conclusion but believe it to be flawed by recency bias. The current versions of fiat currencies are a relatively new phenomenon and were not wide spread prior to the 20th century. I can't say that fiat currency didn't enable the innovation we saw over the last 50 years. However, I don't believe you can say that innovation and a more finite hard money can't coexist as it's is not consistent with history.

Britain went through the Industrial Revolution using gold, silver, and copper as the main mediums of exchange, for example.

Reverting back to a similar system would be very painful and would require sweeping changes in politics, economics, basic incentive structures, etc. but I think I would rather my personal output be valued in an appreciating medium of exchange vs one that's being devalued by 5-20%+ annually from uncontrolled money printing.

The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

MouthBQ98 said:

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The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

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Yep. People can complain all they want about the dollar, but there aren't any better options out there. The yuan has massive capital controls and it is not as liquid as the dollar.

The yuan going from 0 to 5-10% (maybe) of central bank reserve assets is certainly interesting, but it's not the end of the US dollar. Not by a long shot.

Edit: and the notion that a "BRICS" currency will serve as a better reserve asset than the US dollar. Yeah, ok. Believe that. LOL.

MouthBQ98 said:

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The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

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It doesn't matter what you believe. All that matters is what THEY believe.

If 3/4 of the worlds population think the FED is the devil.....thats reality for them.

Countries are lining up two deep to sign on with BRICS. The last two weeks have seen quantum leaps in the movement away from the dollar. The recent announcements show it's happening whether you believe its possible or not.


As far as this comment goes. "plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it." How is the CCP any different than our current admin and its millions of govt employee minions? Did you forget just months ago they were forcing millions of Americans to take an experimental health treatment for a cold or be fired from a career????? Not to mention the CCP paid millions in bribes to POTUS' son, or stealing elections, or limiting speech on tech platforms, etc.......



No one is rooting for a dollar failure. We are trying to wake up our fellow Aggies to the new reality so they can protect themselves and families.

I'll take the decentralized option for $500, Alex.

Zergling Rush said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

---

It doesn't matter what you believe. All that matters is what THEY believe.

If 3/4 of the worlds population think the FED is the devil.....thats reality for them.

Countries are lining up two deep to sign on with BRICS. The last two weeks have seen quantum leaps in the movement away from the dollar. The recent announcements show it's happening whether you believe its possible or not.


As far as this comment goes. "plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it." How is the CCP any different than our current admin and its millions of govt employee minions? Did you forget just months ago they were forcing millions of Americans to take an experimental health treatment for a cold or be fired from a career????? Not to mention the CCP paid millions in bribes to POTUS' son, or stealing elections, or limiting speech on tech platforms, etc.......



No one is rooting for a dollar failure. We are trying to wake up our fellow Aggies to the new reality so they can protect themselves and families.

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As bad and corrupt as our authoritarian oligarchs are, they aren't anything like the nastiness that Marxists are.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Zergling Rush said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

---

It doesn't matter what you believe. All that matters is what THEY believe.

If 3/4 of the worlds population think the FED is the devil.....thats reality for them.

Countries are lining up two deep to sign on with BRICS. The last two weeks have seen quantum leaps in the movement away from the dollar. The recent announcements show it's happening whether you believe its possible or not.


As far as this comment goes. "plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it." How is the CCP any different than our current admin and its millions of govt employee minions? Did you forget just months ago they were forcing millions of Americans to take an experimental health treatment for a cold or be fired from a career????? Not to mention the CCP paid millions in bribes to POTUS' son, or stealing elections, or limiting speech on tech platforms, etc.......



No one is rooting for a dollar failure. We are trying to wake up our fellow Aggies to the new reality so they can protect themselves and families.

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As bad and corrupt as our authoritarian oligarchs are, they aren't anything like the nastiness that Marxists are.

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Yet....

USD is backed by US government which is made up of short term thinking morons that will destroy this country if it means they get a win. The world is losing confidence. And so many Americans would sell their soul for Chinese money.

If I'm China I'd invest more in the US, use some of my billion population to send as many as I can to the US, use Americans greed for money against them, and slowly takeover without them knowing.

Pepper Brooks said:

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I'll take the decentralized option for $500, Alex.

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I'm with you on the decentralization thing - I've got my stash in cold storage stored away.

But right now it doesn't have the liquidity to work as a proper reserve currency on a global scale.

But it's absolutely acting like a proper store of value - as its price has followed the shiny yellowey thing for the last 3-4 months.

mwp02ag said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Zergling Rush said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

---

It doesn't matter what you believe. All that matters is what THEY believe.

If 3/4 of the worlds population think the FED is the devil.....thats reality for them.

Countries are lining up two deep to sign on with BRICS. The last two weeks have seen quantum leaps in the movement away from the dollar. The recent announcements show it's happening whether you believe its possible or not.


As far as this comment goes. "plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it." How is the CCP any different than our current admin and its millions of govt employee minions? Did you forget just months ago they were forcing millions of Americans to take an experimental health treatment for a cold or be fired from a career????? Not to mention the CCP paid millions in bribes to POTUS' son, or stealing elections, or limiting speech on tech platforms, etc.......



No one is rooting for a dollar failure. We are trying to wake up our fellow Aggies to the new reality so they can protect themselves and families.

---

As bad and corrupt as our authoritarian oligarchs are, they aren't anything like the nastiness that Marxists are.

---

Yet....

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I will agree our progressive leftists and crony capitalists seem to be well on their way to trying to implement their own version of a CCP like centralized hybrid command/corporate economy with a manipulated currency.

AG1904 said:

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Deflation could be devastating to an economy. Who is going to invest to produce a good in the future that they forecast is going to sell for less than it does today?The time lag between the creation of the required infrastructure and purchase of inputs essentially guarantees a loss. Better off sitting on your cash. Everything comes to a screeching halt. That's why the fed targets a reasonable rate of inflation with their policies rather than stagflation or deflation.

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Right and then way wrong on the last statement.

You don't need a FED to not have deflation. A naturally free market unencumbered by central planning and government regulation would have natural growth and contraction cycles. And everything would work toward equilibrium. What we have had for the last hundred years thanks to the FED is forced extended bust cycles to reset valuations after forced boom cycles. And every time it busts, it's one class of people who profit off it while the middle class gets stuck with bill.

Wake up. The FED was created to prevent the exact type of event we are in the beginning phase of, and they are directly responsible for dozens of similar events since creation despite their mandate being to prevent them. Either they are consistently incredibly awful at their job, or, they never intended to do what they claimed to mandate and only exist to enrich the partnership of banks and government.

Wake up.

I wasn't arguing for or against the need for a central bank, just pointing out that the ours implements policies designed to encourage a low level of predictable inflation.

I agree with Ag1904, low inflation levels stimulate the desire to invest and create where deflation stifles that desire. It is controls on the money supply, typically using the cost of money (ie. borrowing rate), that provide significant influence on inflation/deflation rates. The Fed sets their rate which has great bearing on the cost to borrow.

They try to run a balancing act and have had past successes and failure, but I do not currently put too much blame on the Fed. The rampant give aways by the government, primarily related to COVID and Ukraine over the last three years, have caused our economic problems. They flooded the money supply and prices inflated. The Fed is trying to offset that by tightening borrowing through higher interest rates but they cannot compete with what is pouring out of the government.

Stop the massive new spending and we may eventually get back to what has been normal for 20+ years.

Zergling Rush said:

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Win At Life said:

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If all other countries in the world already trade and reserve a currency other than their own currency, but that has not caused them economic catastrophe, why would less trade in US dollars cause a US economic catastrophe?

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Simple supply and demand

If less demand to hold dollars to settle international trade then interest rates on US Treasuries need to go up to attract buyers.

Current 10-year is 3.3%. We are able to finance our $31 Trillion at that rate. At 6%, 7%, or 8% it becomes harder and harder to finance the debt. (its much more complicated than that but its the simple explanation)


Beyond that if rates spike in an uncontrolled environment (this is the big worry of the FED) then derivatives held by financial institutions start to blow up. i.e - banks fail.

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I absolutely believe this is going to occur in the next two decades

that being the case- what defensive measures can be taken?

own real estate?

MouthBQ98 said:

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The yuan has ALL the problems that the dollar does, plus a self absorbed hyper manipulative communist state behind it.

Sure. Take your chances with the CCP Vs the federal reserve?

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The yuan is also denominated in the US Dollar value it is pegged to.

So when brics are buying petro with yuan from russia/Saudi, you claim its denominated in USD not barrels of oil?

U serious Clark?

Adverse Event said:

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🎯 The faster users exit USD, the faster USD inflates. The faster USD inflates, the faster users exit USD.

Now factor in how never b4 in human history has it been easier to exit USD, and you can see how serious things are about to get. https://t.co/r2wotqLCe6

— Jason Lowery (@JasonPLowery) April 6, 2023

Good reminder of the burdens being born in this process.

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So the more demand to exit an asset the more it goes up in price? How does that work?

I'll be interested to see where we are in 24 months. Agree the liquidity hurdle is an impediment in the short term but there is a ton of really cool layer 2 innovation going on right now. I suspect liquidity to be less of an issue the easier BTC becomes to use in a similar way to how we transact now.