2024 Polling

1,867 Views | 30 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by TexAgs91
Tanstaafl
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8:55a, 3/30/23
Trump loses to Biden.

DeSantis beats Biden.




Trump has a slight lead in a crowded field, but loses to DeSantis in a two-man primary.




Among independent voters, DeSantis is above water. Trump and Biden are both awful.

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Capt. Augustus McCrae
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9:01a, 3/30/23
AG
+/-2 is well within the margin of error for these polls
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AGHouston11
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9:05a, 3/30/23
AG
Desantis hasn't entered the race yet. Right now he's attending fund raisers and being a politician.

Favorable opinions of "independents" change like the wind. Once professional propaganda journalists start reporting and Hollywood is told to attack all things change.
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Irish 2.0
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9:07a, 3/30/23
The independent voters is what the GOP needs to focus on. They hate Trump and you're not winning the White House without them. DeSantis proved he can pull independent and moderate democrats. Yoy don't take FL R+20 w/o moderate democrats and his 2022 re-election proves it.
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CrackerJackAg
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9:07a, 3/30/23
AG
I think something to consider in these polls that has not been made obvious is that people answer these poll because they know there's an alternative to Trump.

I absolutely love Trump and think he was the best president of my lifetime.

I am currently a DeSantis fan because I think he fits the mold of Trump with just a bit more polish.

I believe people answer this poll, despite the fact they are asked to pretend that DeSantis is not an option in the head-to-head race between Trump/Biden, in a biased manor because they know DeSantis is an actual option in the real world today and are making the point that they don't think Trump is electable in the general election.

I believe there is a considerable number of people when faced with the real world selection, when Desantis is not a real option, would choose Trump over Biden despite how they answered this poll.
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aggie93
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9:15a, 3/30/23
AG
I will stick with what I have said all along, polls right now are meaningless outside of maybe Trump/Biden having a little relevance because they both have extremely high name ID and people are set on both with little room to change. They have been deadlocked and are likely to stay deadlocked.

Only highly engaged folks are paying attention at all to a race that is over a year and a half away, the overwhelming majority of folks are hanging up if a pollster is calling to talk about 2024 and if they do answer it's a "I guess so and so" answer. It's just way too early and any of these polls need to be viewed that way. People will still poll of course and people will still talk but they are less valuable than a pre season football poll taken right now for next year.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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AggieVictor10
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9:17a, 3/30/23
AG
Polls are only accurate when they look good for Trump.
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cevans_40
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 9:21a, 3/30/23
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
The independent voters is what the GOP needs to focus on. They hate Trump and you're not winning the White House without them. DeSantis proved he can pull independent and moderate democrats. Yoy don't take FL R+20 w/o moderate democrats and his 2022 re-election proves it.
I know this is the correct line of thinking but it is so frustrating to think that you have to cater to and focus on the folks that can even bother to look into issues nor think for themselves. They only care about optics and how the candidate they support will be viewed by their peers.

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JohnLA762
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9:24a, 3/30/23
AG
Rookie post are rookie…

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Just an Ag
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9:29a, 3/30/23
AG
Here we go again with the Trump can't win BS.

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jt16
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In reply to Just an Ag • 9:34a, 3/30/23
AG
Just an Ag said:
Here we go again with the Trump can't win BS.

He did already lose, so it's not an unreasonable argument. At what point do the people that ardently support Trump join the real world?
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AGHouston11
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In reply to jt16 • 9:56a, 3/30/23
AG
jt16 said:
Just an Ag said:
Here we go again with the Trump can't win BS.

He did already lose, so it's not an unreasonable argument. At what point do the people that ardently support Trump join the real world?


What's the real world ? Determined by who …….
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LMCane
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In reply to Capt. Augustus McCrae • 9:59a, 3/30/23
Capt. Augustus McCrae said:
+/-2 is well within the margin of error for these polls
LOL so that's what the Trumpers are going with now:

"but it's margin of error that we always trail by!!"

SAD!!
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LMCane
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In reply to jt16 • 10:01a, 3/30/23
jt16 said:
Just an Ag said:
Here we go again with the Trump can't win BS.

He did already lose, so it's not an unreasonable argument. At what point do the people that ardently support Trump join the real world?
LOL good point.

He actually LOST, and LOST, and LOST again.

2018 destroyed in the House
2020 lost the White House, lost the House, lost the Senate
2022 lost the Senate

but as I knew back in November 2020, the Always Trumpers would continue to nominate even 16 time loser Trump if he was still alive in 2062.
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jt16
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In reply to AGHouston11 • 10:13a, 3/30/23
AG
AGHouston11 said:
jt16 said:
Just an Ag said:
Here we go again with the Trump can't win BS.

He did already lose, so it's not an unreasonable argument. At what point do the people that ardently support Trump join the real world?


What's the real world ? Determined by who …….
Here's the deal. Trump has built himself into someone who has support that is a mile deep and an inch wide. His supporters will NEVER move on from him. But it's also not nearly as widespread as you will admit. He has some good policies, and even some really bad ones. Like it or not, but he played a pretty big part into the Covid lockdowns and the trillions in debt we took on as government handouts. He's someone that makes his every move about himself, and not about his policies. At this point, I don't even think he cares if we wins. He just wants your love and admiration.

It's pretty well documented at this point. His endorsement has almost become a kiss of death politically.
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DD88
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10:15a, 3/30/23
AG
FiveThirtyEight has DeSantis leading Trump on 48-43% on average head-to-head, but trailing 41-31% in a crowded field.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/desantis-is-polling-well-against-trump-as-long-as-no-one-else-runs/
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Gigem314
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10:19a, 3/30/23
AG
Regardless of who ends up with the GOP nomination...it's not a good sign for Biden to be within the margin of error considering Obama was up by multiple percentage points leading up to 2012.
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Tanstaafl
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10:23a, 3/30/23
Happy Three Year Anniversary to Trump extending lockdowns!

The Proven Warrior was only proven to be Fauci's little biyatch.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/30/822448199/how-15-days-became-45-trump-extends-guidelines-to-slow-coronavirus

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LMCane
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10:53a, 3/30/23
According to Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, Comey giving Hillary a free pass made Trump POTUS. Without that blunder Cankles would have won.

Trump has gone on to prove that correct by consistently losing or undermining Republicans in every election since 2018.

He is also the only president never to reach an average of 50% approval or favorability in polling history.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to Tanstaafl • 11:05a, 3/30/23
AG
That's strange.

Any explanation as to why people would choose more inflation, high energy costs, a recession, slow job market, open borders allowing an influx of people draining our resources further as well as bringing in drugs into the US, which affects us all personally over mean tweets, which has no affect on us?

Or do the pollsters not offer any explanation for their data that contradicts common sense?
"Freedom is never more than one election away from extinction"
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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RoadkillBBQ
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11:06a, 3/30/23
I wish I had the faith in our elections many of y'all do and didn't believe the outcome will be decided by the democratic fraud machine.
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policywonk98
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11:51a, 3/30/23
AG
Desantis faces the same situation in a crowded field that Ted Cruz faced in 2016. The biggest difference I see is that Desantis has a higher ceiling of likeability and therefore support over Cruz. Once more and more of the GOP base and independents hear him and focus on his platform and record in FL, the more his support will increase. Giving him more of an edge with Trump than a less likeable Senator from a less likable state has on the national stage. I think that factor allows Desantis to accumulate delegates faster than Cruz as the primary calendar moves along, which will be key for the back side of the calendar.

Within the realm of GOP primaries and the Trump dynamic, a challenger has to be able to peak in the right states at the right time without a crowded field and with a massive war chest and excellent ground game. Trumps 40% won't go anywhere until a challenger can get really close to the threshold of delegates needed for victory. You can only break the will of that 40% with a locked up 45%. Even then a challenger will have to deal with the election fraud accusations at this point. It's baked in with at least 30% of the base regardless of the Trump opponents political affiliation.
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Tanstaafl
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1:23p, 3/30/23
Throwback Thursday to that time Trump suggested Stacey Abrams would be a better Governor than Brian Kemp.

SUCH A GREAT CONSERVATIVE LEADER!!!

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AggieVictor10
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In reply to Tanstaafl • 1:25p, 3/30/23
AG
Tanstaafl said:
Throwback Thursday to that time Trump suggested Stacey Abrams would be a better Governor than Brian Kemp.

SUCH A GREAT CONSERVATIVE LEADER!!!




Someone will be along shortly to goaltend. Don't be so mean.
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Tanstaafl
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1:25p, 3/30/23
Georgia GOP voters have wised up after Trump has effed their state over repeatedly.

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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Tanstaafl • 1:28p, 3/30/23
Tanstaafl said:
Trump loses to Biden.

DeSantis beats Biden.




Trump has a slight lead in a crowded field, but loses to DeSantis in a two-man primary.




Among independent voters, DeSantis is above water. Trump and Biden are both awful.



Good to see polls show what I've been saying for over a year now.

If the GOP wants to get back in the White House, Desantis is the one. It's that simple.

Desantis '24
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TheEternalPessimist
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In reply to Tanstaafl • 1:29p, 3/30/23
Tanstaafl said:
Trump loses to Biden.

DeSantis beats Biden.




Trump has a slight lead in a crowded field, but loses to DeSantis in a two-man primary.




Among independent voters, DeSantis is above water. Trump and Biden are both awful.

1. 2% is within margin of error.
2. Trump actually lost the ballot count by a higher margin nationally in 2016 and still won the Presidency.
3. It's a Quinnipiac poll. Consider the source.
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
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LMCane
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 1:31p, 3/30/23
LOL at a Trumper talking about "common sense"

common sense tells any moderately intelligent 8th Grader

that after Trump loses three straight national elections and has never been over 50% approval...

he ain't gonna win on a fourth try at age 80.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 1:31p, 3/30/23
TexAgs91 said:
That's strange.

Any explanation as to why people would choose more inflation, high energy costs, a recession, slow job market, open borders allowing an influx of people draining our resources further as well as bringing in drugs into the US, which affects us all personally over mean tweets, which has no affect on us?

Or do the pollsters not offer any explanation for their data that contradicts common sense?


"He needs more time...."

Liberal supporters don't make sense. Whether we're talking Biden's, or Trump's.
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Tanstaafl
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4:41p, 3/30/23
Nate makes a solid point.

The anti-Trump crowd sure loves them some Trump.

Hmm....

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TexAgs91
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In reply to LMCane • 4:44p, 3/30/23
AG
LMCane said:
LOL at a Trumper talking about "common sense"

common sense tells any moderately intelligent 8th Grader

that after Trump loses three straight national elections and has never been over 50% approval...

he ain't gonna win on a fourth try at age 80.
Just because I'm not a never-trumper doesn't make me a trumper
"Freedom is never more than one election away from extinction"
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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