end of the free money era?

We shall see.

Some think the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates back to near zero later this year to avoid a recession/bad news for Dems.

It's only one point of view though.

CDUB98 said:

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We shall see.

Some think the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates back to near zero later this year to avoid a recession/bad news for Dems.

It's only one point of view though.

---

I don't see how there is anyway we get back close to zero in 23, but I do think the Fed is being aggressive on the way up so they can head back down the mountain quickly.

I think we are headed to Japan like rates in the future.

CDUB98 said:

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Some think the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates back to near zero later this year to avoid a recession/bad news for Dems.

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Beginning of death wobble if this happens

CDUB98 said:

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We shall see.

Some think the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates back to near zero later this year to avoid a recession/bad news for Dems.

It's only one point of view though.

---

Would just delay the inevitable

the next round of QE will make the COVID round look small.

you are watching MMT fail in slow motion. we need prices to both go up and go down. we need rates to both go down and go up. we need both more debt and less debt. we need perpetual money printing and no money printing. none of it makes any sense.

CBDC will be floated as the solution to this problem.

cgh1999 said:

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Liquidity is going to be a MAJOR issue for every bank. Every bank I know is desperate for deposits to fund their loans and/or bond portfolios.

It won't just impact highly leveraged banks, but also conservative banks. The cost of deposits for many banks exceeds the return on their securities portfolios. So, they'll either lose money on the negative arbitrage or sell securities to avoid that. Which will further devalue their securities.

Leveraged banks (high loan to deposit ratio) may fare better assuming their loan portfolio is primarily floating rate debt. They'll still make money as long as their loans perform.

Which brings us to door #3. Mega cap REiTs are turning the keys over. Which means the little guys are in trouble. Which means their lenders are going to struggle.

Which brings us to door #4. Quantitative easing and government stimulus. The two things that put us into an inflationary environment will be the tools used to bail out the Banks after the economy gets crushed.

Folks - our country is addicted to crack. I don't think we have the stomach to hit bottom and have a true recovery.

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Blackstone gating withdrawals was a canary in the coal mine:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/blackstone-blocked-investor-withdrawals-71-billion-reit-february-2023-03-01/

there is going to be a major liquidity crunch. I'm not sure lowering rates is going to help that much. refinancing and recasting have already been painful for those that have to do it assuming you even can refinance

A run on Silicon Valley Bank?
Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) issued 5,000 PPP loans totaling $2.46 billion in 2020.
Silicon Valley Bank uses some of its PPP fees to create a scholarship program
Silicon Valley Bank's parent to repay all its $235M in TARP money

Quote:

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The bank had $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as the time of failure, the FDIC said in a statement. It was unclear how much of deposits was above the $250,000 insurance limit at the moment, but previous regulatory reports showed that much of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits were above that limit. Link

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[url=https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/banks-feel-sting-of-fed-fight-against-inflation-17831461.php][/url]
Oh no! Over the limit!?!

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Sorry, we aren't there yet. They can fill the holes left by SVB with a click of the mouse (formerly known as money printing) behind the scenes.

Capitalism is just doing its thing w SVB. The SVB assets will be bought for pennies on the dollar, losses will be absorbed, customers will get some of their cash back, and the sun will come up tomorrow.


It won't be "IT" until a Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) bank or two goes down.

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/gsib/

The BIS has the most advanced computer models in the world monitoring the global financial system in real time. This was the focus after 2008. Prevent another global meltdown from happening again. So we'll see what happens. I'm not optimistic though.

Uhhh....

I don't do finance....

Is this possible?

Don't know if this is true or not, but 💀 pic.twitter.com/WBE6N3TtNT

— Reddit Lies (@reddit_lies) March 10, 2023

Albatross Necklace said:

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Uhhh....

I don't do finance....

Is this possible?

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yes.

I suppose that scenario is possible, but that $250,000 they wired wouldn't be FDIC because the bank was still operating on their own yesterday.

97% if their holding swere outside of FDIC coverage so there's going to be some losses for sure.

Once every thing is liquidated, there will be money above the $250 mark, but it damn sure won't make everyone whole.

TxTarpon said:

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A run on Silicon Valley Bank?
Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) issued 5,000 PPP loans totaling $2.46 billion in 2020.
Silicon Valley Bank uses some of its PPP fees to create a scholarship program
Silicon Valley Bank's parent to repay all its $235M in TARP money

Quote:

---

The bank had $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as the time of failure, the FDIC said in a statement. It was unclear how much of deposits was above the $250,000 insurance limit at the moment, but previous regulatory reports showed that much of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits were above that limit. Link

---

[url=https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/banks-feel-sting-of-fed-fight-against-inflation-17831461.php][/url]
Oh no! Over the limit!?!

---

If their assets are greater than the deposits, then the depositors can be made whole if these assets are liquidated.

I think the bank customers will be made whole.

Companies will get loans to make payroll while this mess is sorted.

Quote:

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If their assets are greater than the deposits, then the depositors can be made whole if these assets are liquidated.

I think the bank customers will be made whole.

Companies will get loans to make payroll while this mess is sorted.

---

Banks used to do short term transfers of funds between banks to cover their differences between depositary amounts and what they had loaned out. Never was a big deal...until no other bank would agree to loan the cover money...even for a weekend.

Imagine the phones were busy the last few days.

Yesterday few traders traded $SIVB.

But on March 7th a trader traded $SIVB $200 P 3/17/2023, the only volume all at ask.

They turned $0.13 per contract into $39.10 today at open.

They turned ~$4000 into ~$1,212,100.

Here's how: pic.twitter.com/WNRcrkWUqB

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 10, 2023

I'd really like to know who bought 96 $SIVB 17 March 23 $150 P's on March 6 for $0.01. They're trading around $64.30 right now.

$96 into $617,184
aka a +642,900% gain

Has anyone ever seen a bigger % options pay off?
I sure haven't pic.twitter.com/8k8QYT2qrt

— Archimedes (@AlphaTrader00) March 10, 2023

No doubt this was due to inside information and sent up the bat signal for SEC review. I'd love to know who made these trades.

C@LAg said:

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CDUB98 said:

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And now looking and finding I posted on it twice?

Good gawd. Guess I drank too much last night.

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the obvious solution is to ban CDUB.

everywhere.

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ac04 said:

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the next round of QE will make the COVID round look small.

you are watching MMT fail in slow motion. we need prices to both go up and go down. we need rates to both go down and go up. we need both more debt and less debt. we need perpetual money printing and no money printing. none of it makes any sense.

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I'm sure they'll do MMT right next time.