Their inflation measure is garbage to begin with. That is getting overlooked here. It is a juked stat

jja79 said:

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Depends what type loan someone is looking for. What is the transaction is, meaning purchase, refinance, cash out, etc. Considerably lower than what you seem to be seeing.

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Well thats good to hear.

DannyDuberstein said:

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Their inflation measure is garbage to begin with. That is getting overlooked here. It is a juked stat

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Also valid.

jja79 said:

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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On Monday, December 12, 2022, the current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.32%, increasing 15 basis points over the last seven days.

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I had no idea 30-yr fixed had gotten so high. That is car note level rates.
What are all the yuppies gonna do if they cant refinance?

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That is misinformation.

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Interesting as is its word for word from bankrate.com.
FRED data says 6.33% as of Dec 8.

Old McDonald said:

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hph6203 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Bubblez said:

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The month to month number is 0.1%. Inflation clearly has slowed to a trickle.

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7.1% is a "trickle"? No doubt when Mike Tyson slows his punches from 8 to 7 a minute on your apparently economically dense head you'll celebrate the slowing down.

Goal tending at its finest.

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YoY is a representation of the last 12 months, MoM is a representation over the last ~30 days. YoY explains the inflation you have already felt, MoM is somewhat of an indication of the inflation you expect to feel going forward (it is volatile, July was 0% inflation, August .1%, and .4% in Sept and Oct). The YoY gives you a trendline, it has been reducing since July, because even though MoM was higher in Sept/Oct 2022, the MoM in Sept/Oct of 2021 were much higher.

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this bears emphasizing. it seems some folks think that for inflation to "go away" or "get better" it means prices returning to what they were in 2019. that won't happen, nor should it. what we want (and what is realistic) is for inflation to settle back into the ~2% range, so every month that headline CPI number gets smaller that's a good thing.

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And if it takes 10-12 years to get back to the ~2% range, prices will have about doubled since 2019, depending on the shape of the curve

Homes are no longer raising in price in most markets. New construction is down 10% YoY. High interest rates are doing what they're supposed to. Cooling off the housing market (among other things). Commodity prices have fallen considerably over the last 12 months and lumber is now near pre-pandemic levels. You're sitting there saying "Damn, houses are expensive right now!" And you're right. That's the point. The fed is trying to punish people for buying things right now (including homes). When inflation shows signs that it will return to normal, they'll (likely) drop rates to prevent price drops, mortgage rates will fall, and homes will get cheaper on a month by month basis. Individuals that made the decision to buy now will refinance, if they're smart, and they'll pay the penalty of buying during a fed hike cycle by paying origination fees.

hph6203 said:

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Homes are no longer raising in price in most markets. New construction is down 10% YoY. High interest rates are doing what they're supposed to. Cooling off the housing market (among other things). Commodity prices have fallen considerably over the last 12 months and lumber is now near pre-pandemic levels. You're sitting there saying "Damn, houses are expensive right now!" And you're right. That's the point. The fed is trying to punish people for buying things right now (including homes). When inflation shows signs that it will return to normal, they'll (likely) drop rates to prevent price drops, mortgage rates will fall, and homes will get cheaper on a month by month basis. Individuals that made the decision to buy now will refinance, if they're smart, and they'll pay the penalty of buying during a fed hike cycle by paying origination fees.

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Ha, if you think the Fed is going to drop interest rates to save the value of home prices...you have another thing coming.

The point is to have it go the other way.

real experts including the folks at the Fed Reserve and World Bank know that it is DEFLATION that is the real killer, that the USG has always preferred inflation to a deflationary death spiral

with 32 trillion in debt- the deep state would much prefer higher inflation than massive deflation.

You did not read what I wrote. Home values are stagnant/decreasing. That is the intention. Home prices are correlated with individual wealth. Wealth leads to spending, excess demand creates inflation. They have to contract, but they don't want to squeeze so tight that they put us into deflation, so at SOME POINT in the future they are likely to reduce rates and individuals that bought in the high price/high rate mismatch cycle will lose their equity, but be able to reset their monthly expenditures to a lower set point and just ride out the next 5 years waiting for equity to build back up.

ProgN said:

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AggieCo2023 said:

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I love the MAGA's on TxAgs fuming when good economic news comes out lmao. 4 more years baby!

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I suppose a battered woman should be happy if her BF only beats her 1 in a month instead of 10 times...

It's an "improvement"...

I priced a Texags poster today at 6% with 0 points on a 30 fixed and 5.25% on a 10/1 ARM with 0 points.

That 6.5-7.5% information is old.

jja79 said:

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I priced a Texags poster today at 6% with 0 points on a 30 fixed and 5.25% on a 10/1 ARM with 0 points.

That 6.5-7.5% information is old.

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On what FICO?

...and 10/1 ARM means rate can adjust each year for 10 years at which time a balloon (or refi) is due?

The battered wife should be happy if the husband is put into custody pending bail. He's not in prison yet, but he's possibly on his way. His ****ty brother may come and bail him out, but for now, he's on his way to jail. That's what the most recent reports have been. Month over month July 0% inflation, August .1%, September, .4%, October .4%, November .1%. Take those together and annualize them and you're looking at ~2.4% inflation going forward.

Y'all are getting good news about the future and pretending like it's bad news. If we were at 2% YoY inflation right now, it would mean that we likely have a deflationary cycle ahead. That is worse than inflation.

tysker said:

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Old McDonald said:

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hph6203 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Bubblez said:

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The month to month number is 0.1%. Inflation clearly has slowed to a trickle.

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7.1% is a "trickle"? No doubt when Mike Tyson slows his punches from 8 to 7 a minute on your apparently economically dense head you'll celebrate the slowing down.

Goal tending at its finest.

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YoY is a representation of the last 12 months, MoM is a representation over the last ~30 days. YoY explains the inflation you have already felt, MoM is somewhat of an indication of the inflation you expect to feel going forward (it is volatile, July was 0% inflation, August .1%, and .4% in Sept and Oct). The YoY gives you a trendline, it has been reducing since July, because even though MoM was higher in Sept/Oct 2022, the MoM in Sept/Oct of 2021 were much higher.

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this bears emphasizing. it seems some folks think that for inflation to "go away" or "get better" it means prices returning to what they were in 2019. that won't happen, nor should it. what we want (and what is realistic) is for inflation to settle back into the ~2% range, so every month that headline CPI number gets smaller that's a good thing.

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And if it takes 10-12 years to get back to the ~2% range, prices will have about doubled since 2019, depending on the shape of the curve

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right, which is why the fed is aggressively raising rates to rein it in. hopefully it doesn't take 10-12 years, as others have noted the past few months reflect an annualized inflation rate of ~3-4%, hopefully this downward trend continues . the sooner it's brought under control the lower the overall increase in prices.

Old McDonald said:

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tysker said:

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Old McDonald said:

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hph6203 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Bubblez said:

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The month to month number is 0.1%. Inflation clearly has slowed to a trickle.

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7.1% is a "trickle"? No doubt when Mike Tyson slows his punches from 8 to 7 a minute on your apparently economically dense head you'll celebrate the slowing down.

Goal tending at its finest.

---

YoY is a representation of the last 12 months, MoM is a representation over the last ~30 days. YoY explains the inflation you have already felt, MoM is somewhat of an indication of the inflation you expect to feel going forward (it is volatile, July was 0% inflation, August .1%, and .4% in Sept and Oct). The YoY gives you a trendline, it has been reducing since July, because even though MoM was higher in Sept/Oct 2022, the MoM in Sept/Oct of 2021 were much higher.

---

this bears emphasizing. it seems some folks think that for inflation to "go away" or "get better" it means prices returning to what they were in 2019. that won't happen, nor should it. what we want (and what is realistic) is for inflation to settle back into the ~2% range, so every month that headline CPI number gets smaller that's a good thing.

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And if it takes 10-12 years to get back to the ~2% range, prices will have about doubled since 2019, depending on the shape of the curve

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right, which is why the fed is aggressively raising rates to rein it in. hopefully it doesn't take 10-12 years, as others have noted the past few months reflect an annualized inflation rate of ~3-4%, hopefully this downward trend continues . the sooner it's brought under control the lower the overall increase in prices.

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They should have done their moves much sooner when they saw the numerous trillions of dollars being dropped into the economy by the government...

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" - Milton Friedman

Don't recall the exact score but good.

10/1 ARM means the rate is fixed for the first 10 years of the 30 year term after which it can adjust annually. No balloon.

LMCane said:

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real experts including the folks at the Fed Reserve and World Bank know that it is DEFLATION that is the real killer, that the USG has always preferred inflation to a deflationary death spiral

with 32 trillion in debt- the deep state would much prefer higher inflation than massive deflation.

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We need a 1949 right now

jja79 said:

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I priced a Texags poster today at 6% with 0 points on a 30 fixed and 5.25% on a 10/1 ARM with 0 points.

That 6.5-7.5% information is old.

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still that is TWICE the monthly payment that I have on my current home.

can you originate loans for properties in Florida?

hph6203 said:

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The battered wife should be happy if the husband is put into custody pending bail. He's not in prison yet, but he's possibly on his way. His ****ty brother may come and bail him out, but for now, he's on his way to jail. That's what the most recent reports have been. Month over month July 0% inflation, August .1%, September, .4%, October .4%, November .1%. Take those together and annualize them and you're looking at ~2.4% inflation going forward.

Y'all are getting good news about the future and pretending like it's bad news. If we were at 2% YoY inflation right now, it would mean that we likely have a deflationary cycle ahead. That is worse than inflation.

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I disagree following a sharp and sudden rise in prices. Wages can't keep up. We need a short down turn to get things back to normal.

Lots of people trying to slap lipstick on a pig here……

Not Florida.

The pressure from the boot pressing down on your neck has fallen 0.1%

Kvetch said:

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hph6203 said:

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I'm old enough to remember the economists on Texags saying that the fed rate had to be higher than inflation in order for inflation to come down.

Inflation sucks. Trump, Biden, and the fed colluded to create it. Inflation coming down is not an applause line for Biden.

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The interest rate does have to go up for the inflation to come down when the issue is oversupply of money. Nobody sad interest rate > inflation for any downward movement in the inflation rate. What point are you trying to make here? Inflation remains at a terribly high level.

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Just in case you thought I wasn't being honest:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3349674/replies/63869984

Goldman Sachs plans to lay off as many as 4,000 employees as it struggles to meet profitability targets and retreats from its gamble on Main Street banking, people familiar with the matter said.

Managers across the firm have been asked to identify low performers for what could be a cut of up to 8% to its workforce early next year, the people said, with some cautioning that no final list has been drawn up.

Those cuts appear to be much deeper than ones taking place at other Wall Street firms like Citigroup, which is letting go of dozens of staffers amid a market downturn, and Barclays, which is laying off about 200 people, CNBC reported.