No "Beto mania" is my guess/hope

Yep, my immediate thought.

had a conversation with a republican candidate for appellate judge. He said their internal polling was very positive. Great early turnout for known republican votes, and they feel election day will be good as well for Republicans. We will see.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Where is turnout up and where is it down? Early turnout in Franklin County in 2018 was 3.9%. This year, early turnout is at 31.1% (+27.2%). Hudspeth County was 20.8% in 18 and 8.8% this year (-12%). #txvoterdata #txlege

Congressional District 28. 👀 pic.twitter.com/bEyImw1DKE

— Derek Ryan ❌ (@longhornderek) November 7, 2022

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We are in TX28. Sorry Cueller………you gotta go. Cassy Garcia and Flores have run a nice campaign with the help of the border mess.

What is the source of this info?

Abortion big business here.

valvemonkey91 said:

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What is the source of this info?

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a couple of political campaigns purchased the data and we got a copy as a news org.

LSCSN said:

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why is this info available before polls close? dumb.

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I agree completely. Why should anyone be privy to real-time election data?

cevans_40 said:

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WTH is wrong with the big cities? Are the people there that dumb?

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Free stuff that really isn't free.

BMX Bandit said:

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No "Beto mania" is my guess/hope

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No Trump motivating negative turnout

P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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No "Beto mania" is my guess/hope

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No Trump motivating negative turnout

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"Trump motivating negative turnout?" . .. all the Trump backed candidates are currently ahead. He isn't on the ballot yet the democrats are still campaigning against him. Trump is a kingmaker in the GOP whether you like it or not.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Where is turnout up and where is it down? Early turnout in Franklin County in 2018 was 3.9%. This year, early turnout is at 31.1% (+27.2%). Hudspeth County was 20.8% in 18 and 8.8% this year (-12%). #txvoterdata #txlege

Congressional District 28. 👀 pic.twitter.com/bEyImw1DKE

— Derek Ryan ❌ (@longhornderek) November 7, 2022

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Interesting that overall turnout is down by over 5% in ALL of the big cities.
Democrat voter depression/apathy?

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I rarely compliment Democrats, who are collectively of course all CCP supporters aka communists, but I do suspect the 'top 10 percent' (essentially those who are smart enough to figure out how to drink through a straw on their own) of their base probably realize what a **** show Biden-Pelosi-Schumer have been since January 2021, and that it is costing people (including their base) their safety, jobs, and a lot of money.

P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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No "Beto mania" is my guess/hope

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No Trump motivating negative turnout

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Trump did not run in 2018.

96AgGrad said:

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LSCSN said:

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why is this info available before polls close? dumb.

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I agree completely. Why should anyone be privy to real-time election data?

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no one is.

it doesn't tell you who they voted for, it provides the breakdown of when/where the previously voted.

1-first time voter
2-only voted in general election
3-voted in a republican primary previously
4-voted in a democrat primary previously
5-mix of 3 and 4

Rs leading in Travis county? That doesn't seem normal.

BMX Bandit said:

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96AgGrad said:

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LSCSN said:

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why is this info available before polls close? dumb.

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I agree completely. Why should anyone be privy to real-time election data?

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no one is.

it doesn't tell you who they voted for, it provides the breakdown of when/where the previously voted.

1-first time voter
2-only voted in general election
3-voted in a republican primary previously
4-voted in a democrat primary previously
5-mix of 3 and 4

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None of this should be available while polls are actively open and every ballot is not accounted for.

Jock 07 said:

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Rs leading in Travis county? That doesn't seem normal.

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they aren't.

republican primary voters: 18.9
democrart primary voters: 52.1

Seane Trende is very good at election analysis.

Article he wrote a few days ago.

"What Does Early Voting Tell Us? Not much."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/04/what_does_early_voting_tell_us_not_much_148425.html


He's not perfect and I don't agree with everything he says, but there are several things worth considering from the article. And no, Trende is not some scared Democrat trying to give hope to the Democrat masses. He's an analyst that has a good grasp of data and the pitfalls of election data analysis.

Quote:

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About this time in every election cycle analysts become starved for data to analyze. Of course, actual useful data is just around the corner, dropping on Election Day 2022. Some analysts, not content to wait, turn to the closest thing we have: early voting. It happens every time. So once again I will implore the site's readership to just wait until Tuesday, because the analysis of early voting is a mug's game in almost all circumstances.

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BMX Bandit said:

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Jock 07 said:

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Rs leading in Travis county? That doesn't seem normal.

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they aren't.

republican primary voters: 18.9
democrart primary voters: 52.1

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So what does the 56.2-54 participation rate mean then?

56% of republican primary voters voted early in general.

BMX Bandit said:

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96AgGrad said:

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LSCSN said:

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why is this info available before polls close? dumb.

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I agree completely. Why should anyone be privy to real-time election data?

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no one is.

it doesn't tell you who they voted for, it provides the breakdown of when/where the previously voted.

1-first time voter
2-only voted in general election
3-voted in a republican primary previously
4-voted in a democrat primary previously
5-mix of 3 and 4

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Effectively it tells you:
1. Which party is turning out and where
2. Where late money might make a difference in close races
3. Where a little bit of election day cheating might tip the balance locally

valvemonkey91 said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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No "Beto mania" is my guess/hope

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No Trump motivating negative turnout

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"Trump motivating negative turnout?" . .. all the Trump backed candidates are currently ahead. He isn't on the ballot yet the democrats are still campaigning against him. Trump is a kingmaker in the GOP whether you like it or not.

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Is that because of Trump or because they happen to be regarded as better than the crappy Democrat with the past 2 years of crappy Democrat policy results opposing them?

BMX Bandit said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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No "Beto mania" is my guess/hope

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No Trump motivating negative turnout

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Trump did not run in 2018.

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That's right. It was the midterm election while he was president. And anti-Trump sentiment drove Democrat turnout. Same as anti-Joe sentiment is going to drive Republican turnout this year.