2. Rural & migrant Chinese children have avg Raven's IQ only 88.95.

(Rural & migrant is at least 1/2 maybe 2/3 the country's population.)

China only tests select cities in PISA so this map is misleading. China as a whole isn't in the green. pic.twitter.com/MYl7D6C5Ga

— Whyvert (@whyvert) November 2, 2022

Video on the research that suggests China's GDP is way less than advertised.
China's Economy is 60% Smaller Than We Thoughthttps://t.co/0ZfPM9PFgc

— Whyvert (@whyvert) November 2, 2022

One implication is that there is a lot of institutionalized lying in China. That's a weakness.
Another is that if the US is going to try a containment policy on China, it might have a chance of success.

— Whyvert (@whyvert) November 2, 2022

This makes far more sense than their wild claims of huge economic growth. Still very good growth but nothing like their insane 10%+ numbers.

However, with their population in terminal decline and their insane Covid measures, I expect much of this to grind to a halt.

There's no such thing as real GDP in a communist command economy.

Who the **** is Whyvert and what makes them an expert on China? I checked the profile and don't see anything that makes them an expert...

Look, I don't trust a word that comes out of the Chinese government. But quoting some rando on twitter with a little over 13000 followers making wild, unfounded claims, doesn't mean it's true.

So glad our economy is tethered to a mirage.

China has a lot of the same structural issues as Russia. They have rampant graft. The complete failure of Russia's military should be a wake up call to Xi. I would bet that the Chinese military has a lot of the same problems and is no where near as effective as we think they are. Our own government and military industrial complex has every incentive to over estimate their capability as well so they can justify the defense budget. The net is a very outsized impression of what China is really capable of.

Never trust communists

It would be an interesting study to review past reports and carve out things we know aren't real like all their ghost cities.

Another "China will implode any minute" thread

Or at least a variant of one

"One implication is that there is a lot of institutionalized lying in China. That's a weakness."

I don't think this does it justice. In 2007 when they were preparing for the 2008 Olympics, they forced something like 1M poor people out of their homes (I don't care where you go but you can't stay here) so that they could bulldoze their shabby neighborhoods. Why? China thought those rundown neighborhoods might give the impression that China was less successful and modern than they'd been telling the world they were.

As bad as that was they've grown far far worse under Xi. Their behavior with covid was astounding. They sat on the knowledge of its existence for 6+ months, threatened and muzzled their own researchers, and then tried to blame US soldiers. At this point, I don't think they have any idea what their actual GDP is (that is, it's not like they know it's X but they're telling the world it's Y). There is so much lying at every level that by the time it reaches the top level consolidators the data is already hopelessly corrupted.

They are greener than we are so it makes sense that they are good at turning the lights off when they aren't using them.

AggiePetro07 said:

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They are greener than we are so it makes sense that they are good at turning the lights off when they aren't using them.

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Renewable energy in China

Quote:

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As a fast-growing economy, China faces multiple challenges regarding energy generation, particularly the population growth and economic pressure posed on energy demand. However, with this rapid increase in energy consumption coupled with the heavy reliance on coal, various environmental problems started to arise in China, with air pollution being the easiest to notice.

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Green by 2060 does not make them green now...

Captain Pablo said:

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Another "China will implode any minute" thread

Or at least a variant of one

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Well if you look at all the data it's precisely what's happening. Do you disagree?

AggiePetro07 said:

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They are greener than we are so it makes sense that they are good at turning the lights off when they aren't using them.

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LOL. That's not even remotely true. Where did you get that?

Our gdp numbers are bogus too, and institutional lieing is the norm.

LOYAL AG said:

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AggiePetro07 said:

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They are greener than we are so it makes sense that they are good at turning the lights off when they aren't using them.

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LOL. That's not even remotely true. Where did you get that?

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What are you talking about! They're super duper green…

Deputy Travis Junior said:

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"One implication is that there is a lot of institutionalized lying in China. That's a weakness."

I don't think this does it justice. In 2007 when they were preparing for the 2008 Olympics, they forced something like 1M poor people out of their homes (I don't care where you go but you can't stay here) so that they could bulldoze their shabby neighborhoods. Why? China thought those rundown neighborhoods might give the impression that China was less successful and modern than they'd been telling the world they were.

As bad as that was they've grown far far worse under Xi. Their behavior with covid was astounding. They sat on the knowledge of its existence for 6+ months, threatened and muzzled their own researchers, and then tried to blame US soldiers. At this point, I don't think they have any idea what their actual GDP is (that is, it's not like they know it's X but they're telling the world it's Y). There is so much lying at every level that by the time it reaches the top level consolidators the data is already hopelessly corrupted.

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Add to that the quality issues of "produced" items & new housing that's already crumbling and even the stuff that DOES get made is worth less than reported.

I still see them as our most serious adversary: they're currently waging economic, cyber, and cultural war against us - but I think the folks who assess them to be far less capable than advertised are likely correct.

LOYAL AG said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Another "China will implode any minute" thread

Or at least a variant of one

---

Well if you look at all the data it's precisely what's happening. Do you disagree?

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No

I've been hearing this for years

I'll believe it when I see it

Captain Pablo said:

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Another "China will implode any minute" thread

Or at least a variant of one

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China is a hollow shell - like those movie sets on the back lots of the major studios. Their economic and military power has been way overblown. Are they still dangerous? Yes, mainly because they have nukes. Are they REALLY a rival superpower? No.

This isn't so much a prediction of an implosion, because its saying they never were what people thought. The only thing "imploding" is the perception of China.

That is a direct coorilation of those fake cities and real estate they've been selling. Worse yet, companies like Blackrock and Vangard heavily invested in those scams and are now out tons of pension money since all the chinese companies defaulted.

Captain Pablo said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Another "China will implode any minute" thread

Or at least a variant of one

---

Well if you look at all the data it's precisely what's happening. Do you disagree?

---

No

I've been hearing this for years

I'll believe it when I see it

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Fair enough. We've been hearing about our imminent demise for years as well and most of this forum thinks we on the precipice. What all this really teaches us is that fiat money can paper over major problems for an extended period of time.

Someone mentioned something that I think we've seen in the Russian invasion of Ukraine…so many underlings falsifying reports up the chain that the top doesn't know the truth. And if the top is then layering on their own level of exaggeration, you get something very far from the truth.

Captain Pablo said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Another "China will implode any minute" thread

Or at least a variant of one

---

Well if you look at all the data it's precisely what's happening. Do you disagree?

---

No

I've been hearing this for years

I'll believe it when I see it

---

It's happening you just aren't looking hard enough. There are huge warning signs all over China and they have moved to an Orwellian State to extremes in order to try to keep the story from completely blowing open. The implosion is in progress now. No one is investing new money in China and they can only maintain by literally freezing the bank accounts of their citizens so they can't get their money out.

China has so many problems we know about and for every one we know there are probably 100 we don't. Are they going to collapse into anarchy tomorrow? Not likely. The CCP is all in on staying in power. as long as possible. They can keep that going for a good bit but it is making them continue to get weaker as they use their increasingly limited resources to maintain power internally.