Recession Inbound

12,199 Views | 140 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
aggiebrad94
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It's a great time to bump up your 401(k) or SEP-IRA contributions.
Manhattan
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aggiebrad94 said:

It's a great time to bump up your 401(k) or SEP-IRA contributions.


Reminds me I need to figure out how to do backdoor Roth contribution.
Bulldog73
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Larry Elder advise:*

1) Finish high school.

2) Don't have a child before twenty.

3) Get married before having a child.

*Applies at all times, not just for when the press goal tenders finally admit we are in a recession.
Teslag
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rgag12 said:

Teslag said:

Recessions are regional. In Texas we should be fairly well insulated.


True, but if you work for a multinational organization, or even just a national one, your company will feel the effects and will still most likely need to cut expense.


Yep. My wife and I both have government jobs and I have VA disability and army reserve incomes. Hopping to pounce on some cheap assets when the pain hits.
nomad2007
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Manhattan said:

aggiebrad94 said:

It's a great time to bump up your 401(k) or SEP-IRA contributions.


Reminds me I need to figure out how to do backdoor Roth contribution.


Just don't go straight for it. Work the Roth account into it slowly. And remember you'll incur a cost initially but the long term benefits are worth it if you're going to be with that Roth for a long time.
buzzardb267
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Invest in U-Haul. Lots of young people feeling LIFO and moving back in with Mom and Dad. Following the gas shortages in the 70s, I had licensed Architects applying for drafting jobs with my firm.
mike0305
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SouthTex99 said:

Recessions are rare events. Only 13 since the great depression. And they are mostly short. The GD was 27 months but most of the others ranged from 1 - 13 months.

If you have investable cash recessions are great buying opportunities. But don't wait because it may be awhile until you get another chance.
Underrated post. If you have investable cash, buy companies that are hit hard but have a strong brand you think will be able to rebound. For ex, you could pick up BoA and Ford for a few bucks a share during recession lows, they are several multiples higher now.
Tom Kazansky 2012
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larry culpepper said:

HarryJ33tamu said:

Quit voting for moronic leftists that have zero real world experience
The last 5 major recessions began during Republican administrations
I think this is a great lesson for why people shouldn't do too many brain-altering drugs when they are younger. Causes cognitive decline in the older years.
Win At Life
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nomad2007 said:

Manhattan said:

aggiebrad94 said:

It's a great time to bump up your 401(k) or SEP-IRA contributions.


Reminds me I need to figure out how to do backdoor Roth contribution.


Just don't go straight for it. Work the Roth account into it slowly. And remember you'll incur a cost initially but the long term benefits are worth it if you're going to be with that Roth for a long time.
Is this code for pron forums?
Tom Kazansky 2012
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Teslag said:

Recessions are regional. In Texas we should be fairly well insulated.
Inflation will be worse in Texas than on the left and east coast.

Economically speaking you are wrong in principle.
Ags4DaWin
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not hedge said:

While technically I think we are in a recession I don't think the bottom has fallen out yet. I predict after the holidays


And run up to the holidays.

This is why all retailers and Amazon are pushing to get Christmas shopping done and having their sales so far in advance of december.
Krombopulos Michael
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not hedge said:

For you adults that lived through the 90s and 08. Any tips to the young ins about getting through the upcoming recession?

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but this recession is lining up to be exponentially worse than 08 and even worse than 1929.


The bond markets around the world are in trouble. If they (central banks and govts) lose control you will see a global credit freeze (i.e. - everything locks up for weeks)


Quote:

'Fragile' Treasury market is at risk of 'large scale forced selling' or surprise that leads to breakdown, BofA says

The world's deepest and most liquid fixed-income market is in big, big trouble.

For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasurys market might be the source of the next financial crisis. Then last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged concerns about a potential breakdown in the trading of government debt and expressed worry about "a loss of adequate liquidity in the market."

Now, strategists at BofA Securities have identified a list of reasons why U.S. government bonds are exposed to the risk of "large scale forced selling or an external surprise" at a time when the bond market is in need of a reliable group of big buyers.



"We believe the UST market is fragile and potentially one shock away from functioning challenges" arising from either "large scale forced selling or an external surprise," said BofA strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and Adarsh Sinha. "A UST breakdown is not our base case, but it is a building tail risk."


Illiquidity in the ordinarily smooth-functioning Treasurys market means that government debt can't be easily and quickly bought and sold without significantly impacting the underlying price of bonds and that type of situation would theoretically translate into trouble for just about every other asset class.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fragile-treasury-market-is-at-risk-of-large-scale-forced-selling-or-surprise-that-leads-to-breakdown-bofa-says-11666290995?mod=newsviewer_click


As far as tips go.......

Stat Monitor Repairman
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Quote:

The bond markets around the world are in trouble. If they (central banks and govts) lose control you will see a global credit freeze (i.e. - everything locks up for weeks)
Yep. I think we reach gridlock.
Sq4fish83
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Bonfire1996 said:

larry culpepper said:

HarryJ33tamu said:

Quit voting for moronic leftists that have zero real world experience
The last 5 major recessions began during Republican administrations
You literally just argued that Jimmy Carter was a better economic president than Ronald Regan.
That is dumb and you should feel bad

He's too dumb to feel bad
YouBet
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It's humorous reading articles like that and then have all the "experts" tell us we are not in a recession right now.
TexAgs91
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> Recession Inbound

Huh? It's been here
BigRobSA
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not hedge said:

For you adults that lived through the 90s and 08. Any tips to the young ins about getting through the upcoming recession?


"Upcoming"?

We're already there, mang.
Ol_Ag_02
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larry culpepper said:

HarryJ33tamu said:

Quit voting for moronic leftists that have zero real world experience
The last 5 major recessions began during Republican administrations


Wait. So are we in a recession right now or not in a recession? I can't keep up.
UTExan
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Teslag said:

Recessions are regional. In Texas we should be fairly well insulated.


This. I recall after the 1970s energy:inflation crisis, many Yankees headed south to take advantage of Texas' economy. There was a bromide among "some" Texans that among the things they hated to see was an old car with Michigan plates pulling a U Haul headed south across the Red River.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
Tom Kazansky 2012
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C@LAg said:

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

Teslag said:

Recessions are regional. In Texas we should be fairly well insulated.
Inflation will be worse in Texas than on the left and east coast.

Economically speaking you are wrong in principle.
i guess technically you might be correct, given the coasts have already experienced excessive increases across the board, so their future ones will be relatively smaller.



Yeah the rough part will be when there are less and less jobs on the coasts the people there and their money will flood to red states for a lower cost of living and we will experience worse inflation than the states they came from as more dollars will be available to buy less good per capita in states gaining population and more dollars.
CDUB98
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DON'T CALIFORNIA MY TEXAS!!
WestAustinAg
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Maybe buy one less latte a day. Update your iPhone every two years at most. Go out to dinner one day a week. Vote for fiscal conservatives. Go to church.
deddog
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Manhattan said:

aggiebrad94 said:

It's a great time to bump up your 401(k) or SEP-IRA contributions.


Reminds me I need to figure out how to do backdoor Roth contribution.
Wait for a Republican President so you don't get ****ed on taxes.

On second thoughts, go for it
deddog
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YouBet said:

It's humorous reading articles like that and then have all the "experts" tell us we are not in a recession right now.
Under Trump, Yahoo articles always had a warning around all the good stuff happening.
"Why high GDP might be a bad thing" , "Unemployment is low but..." , "how low gas prices can hurt you"

Journalists are political hacks
Raptor
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Go work as a teacher.
This post is for Cretaceous Level Subscribers only.

one safe place
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MuchosPollos said:

not hedge said:

For you adults that lived through the 90s and 08. Any tips to the young ins about getting through the upcoming recession?

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but this recession is lining up to be exponentially worse than 08 and even worse than 1929.


Worse than '29 huh?
Funky Winkerbean
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Learn to enjoy the simpler things. Even in a good economy.
Win At Life
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LMCane said:

larry culpepper said:

HarryJ33tamu said:

Quit voting for moronic leftists that have zero real world experience
The last 5 major recessions began during Republican administrations
now do all time



just as many under democrats


Why doesn't this show anything for that clusterfluck that was the 1988 crap economy and layoffs?
not hedge
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How have I tried to trick you ?
Shoefly!
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not hedge said:

For you adults that lived through the 90s and 08. Any tips to the young ins about getting through the upcoming recession?

Tighten up your bunghole son!
geoag58
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larry culpepper said:

HarryJ33tamu said:

Quit voting for moronic leftists that have zero real world experience
The last 5 major recessions began during Republican administrations


Dumbest take of the thread. Hopefully you are young and willing to learn.
Fight against the dictatorship of the federal bureaucracy!
Waiting on a Natty
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Be more frugal. Stay the course on investing (I am assuming you are 45 yoa or younger). It will be a great time to buy stocks when the poop really hits the fan.

In 2009 I was looking at an investment thread on TexAgs. Based on a rec in that thread and using a little common sense, I invested $24,000 in Las Vegas Sands. LVS. In 2012, maybe 2013, I sold my LVS stock for around $440,000. And to make it a real win/win, it was in my SEP/IRA.

When there is blood in the streets, that is time to buy.
MouthBQ98
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larry culpepper said:

Bonfire1996 said:

larry culpepper said:

HarryJ33tamu said:

Quit voting for moronic leftists that have zero real world experience
The last 5 major recessions began during Republican administrations
You literally just argued that Jimmy Carter was a better economic president than Ronald Regan.
That is dumb and you should feel bad
The fact that they started under R presidents does not necessarily mean it was the president's fault. the covid recession clearly was not Trump's fault, for example. Just couldn't resist poking fun at the poster for saying voting dem is how you get recessions.


Always stuck cleaning up Democrat caused messes. Mostly by congress. Recessions lag bad policies.
 
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