Its all arbitrage especially once the bots, algos, and HFT get into a trade. Volumes are almost meaningless because of the variety of trade manipulation techniques. If it is a currency crisis, then a better option for UK citizens that still have to pay their bills and debts in GBP may be to buy 5-yr USTs and try to pick up some positive yield and positive carry. Interestingly using BTC as a flowthrough vehicle may provide a cheaper alternative than traditional fx


eta: some light reading on how cyrpto trading volume may 'fake.' I dont think its fake as a much as manipulated and/or doublecounted: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2022/08/26/more-than-half-of-all-bitcoin-trades-are-fake/?sh=238975766681

First its "all arbitrage" which is complete speculation on your part, then its fake or manipulated. Which is it?

Setting aside that the study you linked includes 157 exchanges, the vast majority of which are unregistered ****coin casinos that are little more than money laundering operations while the study in the Reuters article includes 8 of the most registered/licensed exchanges that exist, don't you think its an awfully strange coincidence that the fake/manipulated transactions just happened to increase by 1,000%+ on the exact same day that GBP fell to an all-time low against USD? What are the odds of that happening and what would that accomplish?

Can you not admit that people experiencing a currency crisis first-hand for the first time in their life might possibly become disillusioned with government fiat and seek out an alternative? Do you think people in this situation would be likely to seek out debt from another goverment that has aggressively debased their currency over the past ~2.5 years as an investment vehicle? Or might they look for an asset that, while admittedly volatile, is at least protected from manipulation by incompetent central bankers?

Its all arbitrage because a vast majority of us have convert back to local currency. I dont think the volume its 'fake' as much as think its easily manipulated cross-trading / wash trading with bots collecting payouts via miners or by inducing action by other bots/algos/HFTs. They are real trades but its unclear what the economic benefit is, especially when the vast majority of assets need to be converted back (arbitraged) to local currency for usage.

All I'm suggesting is that there may be a different way to achieve a similar outcome. This is not the first currency crisis in Britain or for GBP, just the first one in the living memory of many digital asset enthusiasts.

Which would also make it the first currency crisis for GBP where bitcoin exists as a viable alternative.

Correct and its doesn't even need to be a viable alternative, just a relative alternative compared to hard assets. This is the test case and so far its unclear that its that much better of store of value. That being said, no country has even considered austerity yet.

A person that held USD (or DXY) has been doing pretty darn good this year (mostly because the US still has all the guns). And BTC/Gold ratio is basically back to where it was before trillions of covid stimulus helicopter money was dropped in a bunch of peoples pockets. We'll see what RE prices do over the next 2 years.

ac04 said:

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england joins japan as a G7 central bank that is having to revert to quantitative easing despite high inflation in order to protect its own sovereign bond market, and people think that is an opportunity to dunk on bitcoin? talk about missing the forest for the trees, wow.

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I might give you a blue star if you'd quit saying "quantitative easing." It's called printing money, and it's not a new thing.

I'm just waiting for the SHIB burn portal to start accepting USD.

Dollars are at a premium - liquidity **** show for the ages. Everyone needs dollars to service debt and transact in dollar denominated energy.

Japan is dumping dollar assests and the UK wants to print. It's all coming down - the bond market is showing signs of a pending disaster for us as well…. Nobody is talking about this. Good luck!

ac04 said:

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i do want your blue star though, so i will consider your feedback.

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Done, you little w***e

I wonder if Truss is going to make it to the general election, she is getting some terrible advice from those around her.