Rapier108 said:

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This was the polling in 2016. The Democrat almost always leads in Wisconsin polling.

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And didn't he win handedly too?

Exactly.

Fingers crossed that the state GOP parties and Ronna McDaniels have a robust monitoring systems for the drop boxes and counting centers in certain areas of certain states.

TAMU1990 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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This was the polling in 2016. The Democrat almost always leads in Wisconsin polling.

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And didn't he win handedly too?

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Yes, that was my point.

IDaggie06 said:

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We are at the point where we need oil prices to skyrocket, interest rates to keep rising, inflation to keep rising, and the stock market to crash the next 2.5 months in order to save this country. You know it's sad but true.

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Doesn't the SPR tapping stop next month?

TAMU1990 said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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We are at the point where we need oil prices to skyrocket, interest rates to keep rising, inflation to keep rising, and the stock market to crash the next 2.5 months in order to save this country. You know it's sad but true.

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Doesn't the SPR tapping stop next month?

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Like that really affects gas prices at the pump? LOL.

aggiehawg said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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We are at the point where we need oil prices to skyrocket, interest rates to keep rising, inflation to keep rising, and the stock market to crash the next 2.5 months in order to save this country. You know it's sad but true.

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Doesn't the SPR tapping stop next month?

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Like that really affects gas prices at the pump? LOL.

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A million barrels a day is making a difference. The keystone pipeline would of produced 830,000 barrels a day.

TAMU1990 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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We are at the point where we need oil prices to skyrocket, interest rates to keep rising, inflation to keep rising, and the stock market to crash the next 2.5 months in order to save this country. You know it's sad but true.

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Doesn't the SPR tapping stop next month?

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Like that really affects gas prices at the pump? LOL.

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A million barrels a day is making a difference. The keystone pipeline would of produced 830,000 barrels a day.

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Yeah, riiight. Whatever. (When I say "whatever" that is me choosing battles. Not worth it.)

TAMU1990 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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We are at the point where we need oil prices to skyrocket, interest rates to keep rising, inflation to keep rising, and the stock market to crash the next 2.5 months in order to save this country. You know it's sad but true.

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Doesn't the SPR tapping stop next month?

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Like that really affects gas prices at the pump? LOL.

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A million barrels a day is making a difference. The keystone pipeline would of produced 830,000 barrels a day.

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Keystone was really less about the pipeline and the message it sent that investing in pipelines and drilling was a very dangerous endeavor because it takes years of investment for a long term payoff and the government can cut you off at any time for no reason. The 830k barrels a day hurt but the real cost was millions of additional barrels of production that is just left in the ground because it is seen as too risky to extract and transport.

eric76 said:

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I've read that the Electoral College, which currently seems to favor Republicans, is likely to start to favor the Democrats as the cities gain more and more in comparison to the rural areas.

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The electoral college slightly over represents states with low populations, for example Wyoming and Alaska each get 3 electoral votes which is one one EV for every 300,000 people. states like California get one elector per 600,000 people. That being said with TX & FL becoming more populous and NY & IL becoming less populous the disparity is becoming smaller.

themissinglink said:

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Biden has been an unmitigated disaster. The fact that polling shows it +2% R shows what a failure sticking with Trump has been. If Biden were mildly coherent, Dems would be running away with the mid terms.

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…..and if your aunt had big testicles ….

aggie93 said:

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Just a reminder this is nothing new.

Check out these headlines. Republicans might not win big after all. Oh wait: these stories are from 2014, when Republicans picked up nine seats in the Senate and 13 in the House. pic.twitter.com/2YrwQVU6wY

— Dan O'Donnell (@DanODonnellShow) August 28, 2022

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I'm getting the same idea that the media is trying to gin up positive news and support for Dems even though they know it's BS...then, "unexpectedly" when they don't perform, they'll claim some sort of BS like "Russian collusion"...

Media running cover for the cheat.

They're setting the number for how many votes need to be "counted" for the Dems to win by what they it should be...

I watched Making a Murderer. Wisconsin stopped taking lithium.

Overturn of Roe v Wade. How much more motivated are Democrat voters?

I predict not enough to overcome high gas prices and a sh&t economy.

Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

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Just a reminder this is nothing new.

Check out these headlines. Republicans might not win big after all. Oh wait: these stories are from 2014, when Republicans picked up nine seats in the Senate and 13 in the House. pic.twitter.com/2YrwQVU6wY

— Dan O'Donnell (@DanODonnellShow) August 28, 2022

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I'm getting the same idea that the media is trying to gin up positive news and support for Dems even though they know it's BS...then, "unexpectedly" when they don't perform, they'll claim some sort of BS like "Russian collusion"...

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My first "aha" moment was the '94 election. I remember going into election night hoping maybe the GOP could win a few seats. All the polling and press were talking about how close it was. Total bloodbath for the Dems. Lost the House for the first time since the early 50's. Huge gains in the Senate for the GOP. Just a massive rejection of Clinton. Same with 2010. Same with 2014. Same with 2016. I was too young but my understanding is that 1980 was the same way from what I have read.

Don't trust the MSM and always take polling with a grain of salt, especially in today's world.

Texasaggie32 said:

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New @trafalgar_group #WISen #Poll (8/22-25) shows #Barnes with small lead #wipol

49.4% @TheOtherMandela
47.1% @RonJohnsonWI
3.5%   Und

See Report: https://t.co/dCMhG5MoIh pic.twitter.com/1RlkArdrBB

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) August 28, 2022

Shocked that even conservative pollsters aren't showing a Republican lead. What about Biden makes people want to vote Dem.

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Tell us when the difference in the poll numbers is greater than the error in the poll numbers.

What is it about Biden that makes Dems so ignorant of statistics?

Carter-Reagan were supposed to be 'too close to call' heading into Nov. 79.

themissinglink said:

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While Biden isn't popular and progressives are doing their best to scare off voters, independents look at the Republican Party and see a bunch of brainwashed, Q-Anon loving, election-deniers.

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Your TDS is showing.

Deus vult.

IDaggie06 said:

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We are at the point where we need oil prices to skyrocket, interest rates to keep rising, inflation to keep rising, and the stock market to crash the next 2.5 months in order to save this country. You know it's sad but true.

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Unfortunately I believe there is a lot of truth in your statement.

aggie93 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

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Just a reminder this is nothing new.

Check out these headlines. Republicans might not win big after all. Oh wait: these stories are from 2014, when Republicans picked up nine seats in the Senate and 13 in the House. pic.twitter.com/2YrwQVU6wY

— Dan O'Donnell (@DanODonnellShow) August 28, 2022

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I'm getting the same idea that the media is trying to gin up positive news and support for Dems even though they know it's BS...then, "unexpectedly" when they don't perform, they'll claim some sort of BS like "Russian collusion"...

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My first "aha" moment was the '94 election. I remember going into election night hoping maybe the GOP could win a few seats. All the polling and press were talking about how close it was. Total bloodbath for the Dems. Lost the House for the first time since the early 50's. Huge gains in the Senate for the GOP. Just a massive rejection of Clinton. Same with 2010. Same with 2014. Same with 2016. I was too young but my understanding is that 1980 was the same way from what I have read.

Don't trust the MSM and always take polling with a grain of salt, especially in today's world.

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Agree.. I think it may have to do with their polling assumptions.

They usually poll 38-42% DEM, 26-32% independent, and 26-36% GOP... (this is my anecdotal breakdown based on looking at past polling breakdowns; my experience from reading the polling data the last 15 years)

This overinflates the "swing" that independents carry; as, generally, true independents only represent about 5-10% of the population and the rest are saying they're independent but have a one-sided voting / political history.

For example, look at Gallup:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Reporting party claimed by respondents (generally, at a glanace):
Republicans 28%, Independents 42%, Democrat 30%

If forced to choose a side:
Republicans 45%, Independents 44%

Recent Polling Sample:
1500 respondents : 383 GOP; 577 Independent; 540 democrats

So either GOP just doesn't take polls, so they replace them with independents, but in general they are over-sampling democrats...

Also to note, of the 1500 respondents, 594 voted for Biden; 501 voted for Trump (not sure on the other 405 people, it wasn't listed)...
This mean 54 independents swung to Biden (assuming 540 dems sampled all voted Biden); and 118 independents swung to Trump, over 2:1 in favor of Trump in 2020...

Texasaggie32 said:

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New @trafalgar_group #WISen #Poll (8/22-25) shows #Barnes with small lead #wipol

49.4% @TheOtherMandela
47.1% @RonJohnsonWI
3.5%   Und

See Report: https://t.co/dCMhG5MoIh pic.twitter.com/1RlkArdrBB

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) August 28, 2022

Shocked that even conservative pollsters aren't showing a Republican lead. What about Biden makes people want to vote Dem.

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This is a voter IQ test

Ellis Wyatt said:

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themissinglink said:

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While Biden isn't popular and progressives are doing their best to scare off voters, independents look at the Republican Party and see a bunch of brainwashed, Q-Anon loving, election-deniers.

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Your TDS is showing.

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TDS is attributable to extremes on both sides of the aisle which is the problem the Republican Party has yet to recognize.

Blindly accepting your cult leader's false claims despite significant evidence to the contrary is just as deranged as the left's complete and utter hatred of all things Trump.

themissinglink said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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themissinglink said:

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While Biden isn't popular and progressives are doing their best to scare off voters, independents look at the Republican Party and see a bunch of brainwashed, Q-Anon loving, election-deniers.

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Your TDS is showing.

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TDS is attributable to extremes on both sides of the aisle which is the problem the Republican Party has yet to recognize.

Blindly accepting your cult leader's false claims despite significant evidence to the contrary is just as deranged as the left's complete and utter hatred of all things Trump.

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So concerned.

So moderate.

themissinglink said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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themissinglink said:

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While Biden isn't popular and progressives are doing their best to scare off voters, independents look at the Republican Party and see a bunch of brainwashed, Q-Anon loving, election-deniers.

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Your TDS is showing.

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TDS is attributable to extremes on both sides of the aisle which is the problem the Republican Party has yet to recognize.

Blindly accepting your cult leader's false claims despite significant evidence to the contrary is just as deranged as the left's complete and utter hatred of all things Trump.

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The irony of this is that Republicans and conservatives criticize Trump ALL THE TIME. He gets hammered over his appointment failures and Covid response for instance. He definitely gets hammered for his childish antics. Still people are willing to overlook those things for the many policies he has that are fantastic and his overall job performance. Are there a few ar a few die hards who see everything Trump does as perfect? Sure, but not that many really.

Now let's talk about Obama and how Democrats feel about him. You literally could criticize Jesus and Buddha and get more leeway than talking about Obama's faults among liberals. They see him as almost some God like creature beyond criticism. Trump fans might have a funny meme of Trump standing on top of a tank or waving a flag. Obama fans literally look at the "Hope" poster and worship it while making up songs for kids to sing about him and desperately looking for anything about the man or ESPECIALLY his racist wife to virtue signal to their friends. It's like a Catholic Nun screaming at a Protestant walking into church and calling them a religious fanatic from a logic standpoint.

aggie93 said:

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themissinglink said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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themissinglink said:

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While Biden isn't popular and progressives are doing their best to scare off voters, independents look at the Republican Party and see a bunch of brainwashed, Q-Anon loving, election-deniers.

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Your TDS is showing.

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TDS is attributable to extremes on both sides of the aisle which is the problem the Republican Party has yet to recognize.

Blindly accepting your cult leader's false claims despite significant evidence to the contrary is just as deranged as the left's complete and utter hatred of all things Trump.

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The irony of this is that Republicans and conservatives criticize Trump ALL THE TIME. He gets hammered over his appointment failures and Covid response for instance. He definitely gets hammered for his childish antics. Still people are willing to overlook those things for the many policies he has that are fantastic and his overall job performance. Are there a few ar a few die hards who see everything Trump does as perfect? Sure, but not that many really.

Now let's talk about Obama and how Democrats feel about him. You literally could criticize Jesus and Buddha and get more leeway than talking about Obama's faults among liberals. They see him as almost some God like creature beyond criticism. Trump fans might have a funny meme of Trump standing on top of a tank or waving a flag. Obama fans literally look at the "Hope" poster and worship it while making up songs for kids to sing about him and desperately looking for anything about the man or ESPECIALLY his racist wife to virtue signal to their friends. It's like a Catholic Nun screaming at a Protestant walking into church and calling them a religious fanatic from a logic standpoint.

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You are going to have to define "hammered". The worst I ever see from most posters is "Bad Trump" every blue moon.

aggie93 said:

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The irony of this is that Republicans and conservatives criticize Trump ALL THE TIME. He gets hammered over his appointment failures and Covid response for instance. He definitely gets hammered for his childish antics.

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I point out his liberalism all of the time:
TARP 3&4
Spending
Tariffs
"The wall"- a massive jobs program
Didn't repeal DebacleCare like a real leader could have
Didn't truly deregulate, to bring jobs back to 'Merica

He was still better than Clinton, but that's not a true feat.

BigRobSA said:

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aggie93 said:

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The irony of this is that Republicans and conservatives criticize Trump ALL THE TIME. He gets hammered over his appointment failures and Covid response for instance. He definitely gets hammered for his childish antics.

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I point out his liberalism all of the time:
TARP 3&4
Spending
Tariffs
"The wall"- a massive jobs program
Didn't repeal DebacleCare like a real leader could have
Didn't truly deregulate, to bring jobs back to 'Merica

He was still better than Clinton, but that's not a true feat.

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You are an outlier on this board. I think you might be the only poster to criticize Trump and avoid the CM label.

themissinglink said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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themissinglink said:

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While Biden isn't popular and progressives are doing their best to scare off voters, independents look at the Republican Party and see a bunch of brainwashed, Q-Anon loving, election-deniers.

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Your TDS is showing.

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TDS is attributable to extremes on both sides of the aisle which is the problem the Republican Party has yet to recognize.

Blindly accepting your cult leader's false claims despite significant evidence to the contrary is just as deranged as the left's complete and utter hatred of all things Trump.

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Believing that republican voters are blindly accepting false claims of a cult leader as opposed to 1) supporting a president that is the only one in politics that has not abandoned the middle class; and 2) done their own research and seen enough fishy bull**** to come to their own opinions on the election prove that your TDS is showing.

What do you think, out of all the information out there, are the three most damaging pieces of information that have led some to believe that there was widescale fraud?

Surely you didn't just blindly believe the MSM's messaging that there was no fraud?

There's a misperception that the fraud had to be so widespread.

It could certainly have been isolated to a few large counties, and still been quite impactful. Maricopa, Atlanta, Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee. Whatever happened in places like California was probably just incidental, vs. impactful/meaningful fraud.

nortex97 said:

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There's a misperception that the fraud had to be so widespread.

It could certainly have been isolated to a few large counties, and still been quite impactful. Maricopa, Atlanta, Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee. Whatever happened in places like California was probably just incidental, vs. impactful/meaningful fraud.

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I think you and I have a difference in opinion of the word "widespread".

It targeted 5 major counties. A coordinated effort of 5 major dem strongholds with similar strategies is what I would call widespread. Along with the fact that these counties all took bribes from Zuck. It wasn't some one off county with a renegade polling office. It was a carefully planned fraud.

Oh ok, agreed.

Bias is the backbone of any poll, be it it commissioned by a partisan group or generated by an agenda-driven polling organization. The questions are carefully worded and the people polled are carefully selected. The results are purely and completely manufactured to support the desired outcome. Polls are intentionally created political noise, nothing more. JMO

eric76 said:

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C@LAg said:

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eric76 said:

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Texasaggie32 said:

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Shocked that even conservative pollsters aren't showing a Republican lead. What about Biden makes people want to vote Dem.

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Any pollster who fudges the numbers to give his preferred candidate the lead would quickly prove himself to be pretty useless as a pollster.

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all of the pollsters put their thumbs on the scale, one way or the other, even if it is the specific wording they chose to use.

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You do see that quite a bit for certain types of polls.

But if your political poll is worthwhile to your candidate, then he needs to know what he is doing well and where he needs to put more effort and maybe change things up.

Is he lagging in this county or that county? Does he need to go there for a day and shore up his support?

How are voters reacting to this or that message? Does he need to emphasize the message more? Does he need to explain his views better? Does he need to downplay one or more views?

Every poll that only shows what the candidate wants to see is doing him a gross disservice and the candidate who trusts such polls is hurting himself. As a candidate in any close election, the better the quality of the feedback you receive, the better your chance of adapting to it and winning the election.

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I've worked in actual campaigns. First, the polls the candidates actually look at aren't released and aren't done by the pollsters that release their polls. Second, the ones the candidates focus on use far more and better sample data over a much longer period. The Senate races are not 600 to a thousand random voters around the state; they are a collection of a few voters from various counties or precincts around the state. Properly done, the actual polls the candidates are looking at take this into account and take weeks to conduct.

The polls you are speaking of are mostly media driven and designed to write a story. In other words, they are made for news and are almost pure propaganda, regardless of which way they lean. The thumb on the scale on this poll was likely the 53% women sampled. I doubt that is within election norms.

Any poll in the summer is useless anyway.

Arizona polls were surprising. Surprised Masters is losing but there's a lot of votes for the libertarian or undecided. Hopefully more shift towards masters.