aginlakeway said:

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rca21978 said:

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Twitter seems to think that his m-fer rant will propel him to victory. Does he have a realistic chance of winning?

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Do you know who is on twitter?

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Bots

According to the news, Abbott has him by eight points.

With all the Californians and others from blue states moving here…wouldn't be shocked if he won.

Betohole will lose by 10%! Not even close.

The rant is probably a setup equivalent to John Kerry hunting or Hillary crying. Focus groups said Beto looks weak. So his handlers make a video of him acting tough and make it go viral.

We don't need no steenkin' election...

C@LAg said:

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Loyalty said:

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With all the Californians and others from blue states moving here…wouldn't be shocked if he won.

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no way. not this cycle. but sooner than we all should like.

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I hope you are right.

That was also before "he\\ yeah I'm going to take your guns"..

AggieCo2023 said:

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You're not being honest if you don't think that decision helped the Democrats. Since it came out we've seen a huge shift in polling, a Democrat backed referendum win by 20 points in bright Red Kansas and a Democrat in Minnesota outperform Biden's 2020 margin by 6 points.

The Republicans will still probably keep the house and Beto will still likely lose but by far closer margins.

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I would put very little stock in the Kansas referendum. It was horribly worded and confusing. The campaign for it was poorly organized and funded. The campaign against it was extremely well organized and funded. Essentially they made women think they were banning all abortions when all it was was to allow the Leg to regulate abortion since Kansas is likely the only state that actually has abortion mentioned in their Constitution as something that is decided by the Courts.

It was a loss for Pro Lifers for sure but it was an outlier in every way. Simply by the margins of the vote it is pretty clear a lot of Pro Lifers voted against because they misunderstood the proposition's wording. This is just terrible:

Quote:

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"The Value Them Both Amendment would affirm there is no Kansas constitutional right to abortion or to require the government funding of abortion, and would reserve to the people of Kansas, through their elected state legislators, the right to pass laws to regulate abortion, including, but not limited to, in circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest, or when necessary to save the life of the mother."

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Punchers chance , maybe, but I would still make Abbott a big favorite.

It depends on who counts the votes -

and I don't really think he wants to win - he just wants to run and reap the benefits that running for an office in Texas as an ultra lib will generate - look where the majority of his funding is coming from -

sixbarag said:

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Betohole will lose by 10%! Not even close.

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Correct. He is essentially a great thief, separating rich NYC/Hollywood white people from their money.

I wonder when these sucker libtards will finally realize that this character Beto is a professional campaigning loser and stop wasting their money ? My guess is Beto probably has one or two remaining after this loss !

Survey results from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, which were published Sunday, showed O'Rourke down by 7 points against Abbott. The Democratic contender had the support of just 39 percent of registered voters while the Republican was backed by 46 percent. The poll was conducted from August 1 to 7 among 1,384 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.

So Abbott's really up by 12%? Polls are typically skewed pro Dem by about 5%.

Same answer as if Cheny wins Tuesday....NO

Manhattan said:

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Everyone should hope so, he can't do **** without the legislature, and it means we get rid of Abbott.

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Because everyone deserves to live in a democrat ****hole, aka Equity

SECTAMU#1 said:

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Survey results from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, which were published Sunday, showed O'Rourke down by 7 points against Abbott. The Democratic contender had the support of just 39 percent of registered voters while the Republican was backed by 46 percent. The poll was conducted from August 1 to 7 among 1,384 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.

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RV polls tend to e 3-4% more Democrat than likely voter polls.

fc2112 said:

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So Abbott's really up by 12%? Polls are typically skewed pro Dem by about 5%.

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That was among registered voters.

Among those that are "certain" to vote, it was 51/41 Abbott. If you added certain and likely, it was 48/42 Abbott. Dan Patrick seems to have a pretty easy run in. Paxton's race will evidently be the closest, but he will win.

The party ID was R+7. I think that may be a just a little bit light, but it's not way off.

Do not underestimate the popularity of this jackwagon.

According the polls on Real Clear Politics, Cruz was was high as being up +10 in the weeks just before the election.

I believe and pray Abbott will prevail, but its going to be within 5-6 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html#polls

SECTAMU#1 said:

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Survey results from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, which were published Sunday, showed O'Rourke down by 7 points against Abbott. The Democratic contender had the support of just 39 percent of registered voters while the Republican was backed by 46 percent. The poll was conducted from August 1 to 7 among 1,384 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.

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Shhhhh!

Let him keep stealing money from rich coastal elites.

Yes, he's going to get slaughtered, again, when it matters.

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Abbott's not in a great position for an incumbent, but not horrible either at 46/39. O'Rourke, on the other hand, shows little sign of being a "closer," as Texas Democrats tried to argue two weeks ago. He's not even at 40% in the second DMN-commissioned poll in a row. That would be a bad position for a relatively unknown challenger this close to the actual vote, but Beto has a national brand and tons of media exposure. And it's not moving the needle.

Why? James Carville could explain it for Democrats and keeps trying:

Quote:

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Powering the governor's lead is his handling of the Texas economy, with 53% favoring his stewardship and 41% who disapprove. Only 9% blamed Abbott or Texas lawmakers for inflation, while 48% blamed higher costs for goods and services on President Joe Biden.

"Regardless of the many things that are happening, Abbott's standing and trust in the economy is what's holding that lead," said Mark Owens, a political scientist at UT-Tyler and director of the poll.

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However, this is a measure of registered voters rather than likely voters. What happens when the DMN-UT pollsters apply a likely-voter filter? Suddenly, Abbott's lead grows to ten points…

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Oh btw for you readers with 'Beto' bumper stickers, this just shows that your boy Joseph Robinette Biden (or rather, what is left of him) is dragging Robert Francis O'Rourke down. Damn Irishmen.

Panama Red said:

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Do not underestimate the popularity of this jackwagon.

According the polls on Real Clear Politics, Cruz was was high as being up +10 in the weeks just before the election.

I believe and pray Abbott will prevail, but its going to be within 5-6 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html#polls

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To be fair, that was before the bloom was off the rose for Beto. Against Cruz he was a fresh, new and cool face skateboarding through Whataburger parking lots. Since then, he is nothing more than a losing political candidate and a grifter.

Last odds I saw where -900 / +725.

nortex97 said:

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SECTAMU#1 said:

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Survey results from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, which were published Sunday, showed O'Rourke down by 7 points against Abbott. The Democratic contender had the support of just 39 percent of registered voters while the Republican was backed by 46 percent. The poll was conducted from August 1 to 7 among 1,384 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.

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Shhhhh!

Let him keep stealing money from rich coastal elites.

Yes, he's going to get slaughtered, again, when it matters.

Quote:

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Abbott's not in a great position for an incumbent, but not horrible either at 46/39. O'Rourke, on the other hand, shows little sign of being a "closer," as Texas Democrats tried to argue two weeks ago. He's not even at 40% in the second DMN-commissioned poll in a row. That would be a bad position for a relatively unknown challenger this close to the actual vote, but Beto has a national brand and tons of media exposure. And it's not moving the needle.

Why? James Carville could explain it for Democrats and keeps trying:

Quote:

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Powering the governor's lead is his handling of the Texas economy, with 53% favoring his stewardship and 41% who disapprove. Only 9% blamed Abbott or Texas lawmakers for inflation, while 48% blamed higher costs for goods and services on President Joe Biden.

"Regardless of the many things that are happening, Abbott's standing and trust in the economy is what's holding that lead," said Mark Owens, a political scientist at UT-Tyler and director of the poll.

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However, this is a measure of registered voters rather than likely voters. What happens when the DMN-UT pollsters apply a likely-voter filter? Suddenly, Abbott's lead grows to ten points…

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Oh btw for you readers with 'Beto' bumper stickers, this just shows that your boy Joseph Robinette Biden (or rather, what is left of him) is dragging Robert Francis O'Rourke down. Damn Irishmen.

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Abbot's standing?

This is just mean spirited and below the belt.

The issue questions are interesting and are pretty consistent with other recent polls of Texas voters. Texas voters line up with Republicans on issues like economy, immigration, and energy and Democrats on abortion and guns. Very mixed on issues like CRT. I would really focus on inflation, taxes, and immigration if I were running a Republican campaign this cycle. Democrats will need to focus on gun violence, abortion, and lingering concerns about the power grid.

Republicans also need to get some new candidates - Abbott, Patrick, and Paxton are all flawed and not likeable. Throw in Cruz and Cornyn in there as well. Texas Republicans really need to do better. I am envious of Florida.

Some of the more interesting issue results are below. A good reminder that this board is often way out of touch on where most people (including Texas Republicans) are on issues,

Quote:

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Do you agree or disagree that elected officials are doing enough to prevent mass shootings?

Strongly Agree 13%
Somewhat agree 17%
Somewhat disagree 23%
Strongly Disagree 40%

Do you agree or disagree that Governor Abbott should call a special session of the Texas Legislature to respond to mass shootings?

Strongly Agree 42%
Somewhat agree 24%
Somewhat disagree 13%
Strongly Disagree 12%

Do you favor or oppose a mandatory program where the government would buy back semi-automatic assault-style rifles from citizens who currently own them?

Favor a great deal 27%
Favor a moderate amount 13
Favor a little 12
Oppose a little 7
Oppose a moderate amount 7
Oppose a great deal 28
Neither favor nor oppose 6

Do you favor or oppose increasing the age a person can purchase a semi-automatic assault style rifles from 18 years old to 21 years old?

Favor a great deal 52%
Favor a moderate amount 15
Favor a little 8
Oppose a little 4
Oppose a moderate amount 5
Oppose a great deal 11
Neither favor nor oppose 4

Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to decide abortion policy?

Strongly Approve 31%
Somewhat Approve 11
Somewhat Disapprove 10
Strongly Disapprove 39

Should abortion be illegal in all cases, illegal in most cases, legal in most cases, or legal in all cases?

Illegal in all cases 13%
Illegal in most cases 31%
Legal in most cases 30
Legal in all cases 25

Do you think Donald Trump is (a) directly responsible for January 6th, (b) encouraged those involved in January 6th but was not directly responsible for their actions, or (c) did nothing wrong regarding January 6th?

Directly responsible 42%
Encouraged those involved, but not directly responsible 28
Did nothing wrong 28

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Care to cite that survey?

Artorias said:

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Care to cite that survey?

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It is the one linked in this thread like five times -

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/dmn-uttyler-aug2022.pdf

Yeah, most Texans wants to give up their guns and murder babies left and right.

Two words

Bull and ****

BenFiasco14 said:

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Of course he does. He was like 3 points away from Cruz. And that was a few years ago

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Most idiots didn't know who he was

Rapier108 said:

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Yeah, most Texans wants to give up their guns and murder babies left and right.

Two words

Bull and ****

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Don't underestimate the amount of influence the media and left have had with people on "my body, my choice" for decades. Also, female voters are becoming increasingly anti-second amendment (until they need someone to protect them because the cops have been defunded)

Rapier108 said:

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Yeah, most Texans wants to give up their guns and murder babies left and right.

Two words

Bull and ****

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It's all in how you word the question. On abortion, you can read it that most people support abortion, or that only 25% support the Dem position of legal abortion up to the point of birth. The fact is, most voters, when asked about what kind of restrictions they would support, would have been in favor of the restrictions contained in the Mississippi statute at issue in Dobbs, yet a majority say they are against that decision. The truth is that people don't understand the difference between constitutional questions and statutes.

Not unless the Dems set up their cheating machine.

Been thinking about going to a pro abortion rally with a handmade sign saying "we want to murder our children."

Bucketrunner said:

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Not unless the Dems set up their cheating machine.

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How come they haven't set that up in Texas yet?

They're probably working on it