Yep

Good analysis

Desantis should be the choice. Trump is too radioactive and getting old.

UTExan said:

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Desantis should be the choice. Trump is too radioactive and getting old.

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In a way it is similar to 2012 with Romney. In 2012 the biggest issue that Obama was weak on was Obamacare which at the time was still unpopular and a LOT of people were motivated against it. Romney though was one of the very few candidates in the GOP that that issue was off the table because he had done effectively the same thing in Mass and Governor.

For Trump it would leave one of Biden's greatest weaknesses open, his age/dementia. You can't exactly run on that when you have a dude who is almost 80 as your candidate. Well what if the Dems run someone else like Newsome or Buttigieg? Uh, yeah so that would allow the Dems to have a major advantage of running a young candidate against a very old one. Spare me the 'Trump has so much more energy than Biden!" arguments as well, that may work for his supporters but to everyone else it's a major issue (I say all of this as someone who would happily vote for Trump over any Dem and most Republicans).

Trump is absolutely more likely to lose in '24 compared to DeSantis against any Democrat.

If I am a far left leaning Democrat I want Trump nominated.

Trump can win. He should run. The only impediment is the Justice Department who will try to damage him with another investigation about Jan 6th. In that regard show me where Trump directed the people to violate the law. He said "peacefully protest." In this regard various democrat leaders need to be prosecuted for not defending their cities against Antifa and the blacks as part of the b l m movement. What about the SC justices with the marches outside their homes. Democrat leaders said go and protest under the guise of right to protest even though it is against federal law. The hypocrisy is amazing.

The FBI and the Justice dept should be prosecuted for failure to follow the law and violation of their oath.

Paul Dirac said:

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If I am a far left leaning Democrat I want Trump nominated.

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Yeah, I just can't even imagine a scenario in which Trump is ever president again. He may just not have enough support anyway, or there may be blatant cheating, or behind closed door deals, or outright violence, but one way or the other the "powers that be" and the establishment of both sides will simply not allow that to happen.

Houstonag said:

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Trump can win. He should run. The only impediment is the Justice Department who will try to damage him with another investigation about Jan 6th. In that regard show me where Trump directed the people to violate the law. He said "peacefully protest." In this regard various democrat leaders need to be prosecuted for not defending their cities against Antifa and the blacks as part of the b l m movement. What about the SC justices with the marches outside their homes. Democrat leaders said go and protest under the guise of right to protest even though it is against federal law. The hypocrisy is amazing.

The FBI and the Justice dept should be prosecuted for failure to follow the law and violation of their oath.

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Read an incredibly cynical opinion piece in The Hill today, one that unintentionally so.

Quote:

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From Day One, Attorney General Merrick Garland has faced a dilemma: How to deal with Trump. The pressure from within the Democratic Party to prosecute Trump has been enormous. But a Trump acquittal would be a political catastrophe.

Navigating a Trump prosecution has become much more difficult of late. After a year where Trump looked like he was too crippled to run, the collapse of President Biden's approval ratings has made a Trump return to the White House a very real possibility. At the same time, the Jan. 6 hearings have not just damaged Trump, they have turbocharged Democratic rage. The sum and substance is that not prosecuting Trump is becoming practically impossible.

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Quote:

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It is no secret that Democratic voters despise Trump; in fact, they disapprove of Trump much more than Republicans approve of him. Hating Trump is the superglue that holds together the rickety, squabbling Democratic coalition.

According to a recent YouGov Benchmark, Trump has an 84 percent unfavorable rating among Democrats 77 percent "very unfavorable." With liberals, the numbers are even worse: 88 percent unfavorable and 83 percent very unfavorable. For Republicans, Trump has an 80 percent favorable, but only 55 percent very favorable. Reuters-Ipsos puts Trump at 86 percent unfavorable (73 percent very unfavorable) with Democrats, while Republicans are at 73 percent favorable (38 percent very favorable).

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Quote:

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Prosecuting Trump is risky territory for Garland. Not only is Trump going to fight any prosecution tooth and nail, he is also likely to go to any lengths to win.

Being a presidential candidate will call into question the propriety of any prosecution, although most Democratic voters are unlikely to care. Any prosecution is going to be a circus in which any slip-up by Garland or his team would be disastrous. Garland also needs to get Trump on a felony. A misdemeanor or civil penalty would be viewed as a weak, anti-climactic result Republicans would celebrate and ridicule Garland, while Democrats would rage at him.

But worst of all would be an acquittal. If Trump were tried and acquitted, he could just coast off that victory right into the White House.

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Quote:

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If the national Democratic leadership really wants Trump to run, viewing him as the most vulnerable Republican, they could encourage an impulsive move to prosecution. After all, boosting the "enemies of democracy" is the main focus of the Democratic Party these days. But it's one thing to help get a few far-out candidates for Congress, it's another to risk re-electing Trump.

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Quote:

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If Garland were to indict in early 2024, completing an actual trial before the November election would be quite unlikely, thus allowing Garland to escape the potential nightmare of a Trump acquittal. If Trump is not the Republican nominee or if he loses in 2024 a conviction or acquittal is almost immaterial. If Trump is convicted, any Republican President would at least strongly consider a Gerald Ford-style pardon (Trump is headed to prison if a Democrat wins).

If Trump is acquitted and a Democrat is president, Trump is likely still finished as he would be way past his political expiration date at age 82 in 2028. Even Trump would have a very hard time hanging on to relevance that far into the future. If a Republican wins in 2024, an acquitted Trump would be boxed out until 2032. An acquitted Trump would be a whole different kind of trouble for another Republican in the White House, but he won't be back.

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Link

Incredible.

Paul Dirac said:

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If I am a far left leaning Democrat I want Trump nominated.

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I fully encourage everyone on the left to embrace this message, un-ban him from social media, and broadcast Trump's message far and wide across all platforms.

aggie93 said:

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UTExan said:

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Desantis should be the choice. Trump is too radioactive and getting old.

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In a way it is similar to 2012 with Romney. In 2012 the biggest issue that Obama was weak on was Obamacare which at the time was still unpopular and a LOT of people were motivated against it. Romney though was one of the very few candidates in the GOP that that issue was off the table because he had done effectively the same thing in Mass and Governor.

For Trump it would leave one of Biden's greatest weaknesses open, his age/dementia. You can't exactly run on that when you have a dude who is almost 80 as your candidate. Well what if the Dems run someone else like Newsome or Buttigieg? Uh, yeah so that would allow the Dems to have a major advantage of running a young candidate against a very old one. Spare me the 'Trump has so much more energy than Biden!" arguments as well, that may work for his supporters but to everyone else it's a major issue (I say all of this as someone who would happily vote for Trump over any Dem and most Republicans).

Trump is absolutely more likely to lose in '24 compared to DeSantis against any Democrat.

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aggie93,
Masterful analysis as usual. Its difficult to see any flaws in the assumptions.

I see Silian Rail had a post but removed it, but in an unrelated thread he had made a point I would posit is the greatest caveat: if it is true that Democrats outnumber Republican voters by a ridiculous margin, then his objection that they will generally win in any big turn-out is another factor. There can be no doubt, that for better or worse, every unhinged Leftist and even what asinine NeverTrumpers remain would come out in 2024 to vote against Trump.

Finally, I agree with Joes that the net result is the "powers that be" will not allow him to be President. Even the ones loyal to America now suspect him too much because of how handled the aftermath of Nov 3.

That's a great write-up. This is striking:

Quote:

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Navigating a Trump prosecution has become much more difficult of late. After a year where Trump looked like he was too crippled to run, the collapse of President Biden's approval ratings has made a Trump return to the White House a very real possibility. At the same time, the Jan. 6 hearings have not just damaged Trump, they have turbocharged Democratic rage. The sum and substance is that not prosecuting Trump is becoming practically impossible.

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Especially their mindless thralls, the MSM. Who are out in full force defending the ludicrous judicial double standard that excuses the coup of 2017-2020 which only a few brave like Tulsi Gabbard have called out.

:

Quote:

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It is no secret that Democratic voters despise Trump; in fact, they disapprove of Trump much more than Republicans approve of him. Hating Trump is the superglue that holds together the rickety, squabbling Democratic coalition.

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And that bogus superglue is courtesy of the false narrative of the MSM carried out from Nov 2016 onward. They can say what they want about Jan 6 --- any hatred of Trump before summer of 2020 was totally unwarranted and manufactured by them and the DNC they serve. But the write-up is sooooo correct that TDS has become the superglue of the Left ------- what many on the right or conservatives can't seem to get is it may be worthwhile dissolving that superglue as pretext. Make them invent a whole new narrative with no foundation against an economic background that the Democratic Party and Mainstream Media are destroying with entirely partisan votes of reconcilation type laws.

You even see it on this board---epic destruction of the American Ideal on all fronts being carried out by this WH and yet some still say Biden and Trump were equally bad choices. Like it or not, TDS of that level of brain damage has to be worked around and a way found to neutralize, not ignored in Pollyanna fashion.

If Trump would just chill at the debates and let Biden ramble like a lunatic, he'd have a chance. But he'll probably just talk over him nonstop.

A debate between Biden and DeSantis would be elder abuse.

Quote:

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But the write-up is sooooo correct that TDS has become the superglue of the Left ------- what many on the right or conservatives can't seem to get is it may be worthwhile dissolving that superglue as pretext. Make them invent a whole new narrative with no foundation against an economic background that the Democratic Party and Mainstream Media are destroying with entirely partisan votes of reconcilation type laws.

You even see it on this board---epic destruction of the American Ideal on all fronts being carried out by this WH and yet some still say Biden and Trump were equally bad choices. Like it or not, TDS of that level of brain damage has to be worked around and a way found to neutralize, not ignored in Pollyanna fashion.

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From my posting history you know I am more concerned with our system of laws, due process and checks and balances than I am about political optics. But for the last six years I have watched as the DOJ became a shell of itself, the FBI completely out of control. Ninety percent of the Mueller indictments were garbage.

Then American citizens were arrested by the hundreds, denied pretrial bail no matter how petty and misdemeanor the charges with full federal court approval. Bedrock principle of due process, ignored by the very courts entrusted to preserve it for every person, American or not, brought before them.

Now, I have no doubt Garland will attempt to indict Trump on something, no matter how amorphous or ephemeral, just because he can and it would be approved solely for political purposes.

I find this state of affairs sad and cynical at the same time.

TexasAggie_02 said:

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If Trump would just chill at the debates and let Biden ramble like a lunatic, he'd have a chance. But he'll probably just talk over him nonstop.

A debate between Biden and DeSantis would be elder abuse.

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I meant to say that same thing earlier. More people would have seen what an empty shell Biden was even two years ago if Trump could have just kept his mouth shut somewhat and let Biden try to shake hands with invisible people.

Joes said:

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TexasAggie_02 said:

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If Trump would just chill at the debates and let Biden ramble like a lunatic, he'd have a chance. But he'll probably just talk over him nonstop.

A debate between Biden and DeSantis would be elder abuse.

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I meant to say that same thing earlier. More people would have seen what an empty shell Biden was even two years ago if Trump could have just kept his mouth shut somewhat and let Biden try to shake hands with invisible people.

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In Trump's defense the Moderators saved Biden time after time. Every time Trump had Biden on the ropes and starting to struggle the Moderator would change the subject and let Biden off the hook. Every time Trump started to struggle you would literally hear both Biden and the Moderator piling on and either not letting Trump speak or trying to confuse him. A great example is the "Do you denouce White Supremacy?" moment when Trump was simply trying to say yes I denounce whatever you want and they interjected the Proud Boys and he said ""Stand by and Stand down" to and they acted like he was somehow giving them a secret message.

Against Trump though he wasn't prepared for it and fell in the trap.

aggie93 said:

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Joes said:

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TexasAggie_02 said:

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If Trump would just chill at the debates and let Biden ramble like a lunatic, he'd have a chance. But he'll probably just talk over him nonstop.

A debate between Biden and DeSantis would be elder abuse.

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I meant to say that same thing earlier. More people would have seen what an empty shell Biden was even two years ago if Trump could have just kept his mouth shut somewhat and let Biden try to shake hands with invisible people.

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In Trump's defense the Moderators saved Biden time after time. Every time Trump had Biden on the ropes and starting to struggle the Moderator would change the subject and let Biden off the hook. Every time Trump started to struggle you would literally hear both Biden and the Moderator piling on and either not letting Trump speak or trying to confuse him. A great example is the "Do you denouce White Supremacy?" moment when Trump was simply trying to say yes I denounce whatever you want and they interjected the Proud Boys and he said ""Stand by and Stand down" to and they acted like he was somehow giving them a secret message.

Against Trump though he wasn't prepared for it and fell in the trap.

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Agree 100%. It was not a "Moderator" it was Biden and a member of his campaign staff disgused as Moderator named Chris Wallace that sandbagged him constantly in the first debate. Never had Rush's old maxim of "Democrats disguised as Journalists" been so true. Loathsome that Sept 29th ----- it was one reason was not as shocked as some at Fox's betrayal Election Day evening calling things early -- having learned nothing from 2000.

And never had Wallace enraged as much as excusing Antifa and making such a big deal about the Proud Boys in such a left fortress as Portland that they had been tearing at all summer.

TexAgs91 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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Didn't the first "C" used to stand for "conservative"?

Desantis is loads more actually conservative, way more intelligent and doesn't sound like a moron when he speaks.

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For you, the C stands for Concerned.

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Are you new here?

there is literally zero reason to pick trump over a new rockstar like desantis. zero.

captkirk said:

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He is right, and who has actually done that, while governing? Desantis.

BigRobSA said:

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captkirk said:

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He is right, and who has actually done that, while governing? Desantis.

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Besides the state attorney, who else that you know of?

BD88 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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captkirk said:

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He is right, and who has actually done that, while governing? Desantis.

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Besides the state attorney, who else that you know of?

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Only one off the top of my head, due to freshness of the instance.

One more than Trump. Hell, our country is ****ed so badly largely because he didn't axe Fauci, Birx, et. al.

On top of his liberal spending, of course.

BigRobSA said:

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BD88 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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captkirk said:

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He is right, and who has actually done that, while governing? Desantis.

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Besides the state attorney, who else that you know of?

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Only one off the top of my head, due to freshness of the instance.

One more than Trump. Hell, our country is ****ed so badly largely because he didn't axe Fauci, Birx, et. al.

On top of his liberal spending, of course.

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So one. I couldnt think of anyone else,

If Trump were convicted and sent to prison, the democrats would find out what an insurrection really is.

There would be blood in the streets.

BigRobSA said:

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BD88 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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captkirk said:

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He is right, and who has actually done that, while governing? Desantis.

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Besides the state attorney, who else that you know of?

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Only one off the top of my head, due to freshness of the instance.

One more than Trump. Hell, our country is ****ed so badly largely because he didn't axe Fauci, Birx, et. al.

On top of his liberal spending, of course.

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It was odd that he didn't get rid of them. He'd gotten rid of others for much less. One day he said two weeks and that we can't let the cure be worse than the disease, and the next the entire country is shut down and money is going BRRR to seemingly the entire nation.

BigDave21 said:

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there is literally zero reason to pick trump over a new rockstar like desantis. zero.

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Other than the best economy in 50 years and the first time to be energy independent in 70 years...

BigRobSA said:

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BD88 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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captkirk said:

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He is right, and who has actually done that, while governing? Desantis.

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Besides the state attorney, who else that you know of?

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Only one off the top of my head, due to freshness of the instance.

One more than Trump.

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What about Comey?

Now to consider the other side. Given the showing at CPAC and the continued numbers, if Trump does run in 2024 because there is a large number still wanting it and maybe truly needed at the time (and let's pretend no fight with DeSantis occurred, he just chose not to) -- if he does, what could the center and right do to insure the election proceeded in any kind of manner of reliability?

In other words, going to what Joes and others of similar mind said, WHAT has changed that they couldn't undermine the outcome with selective coverage and TDS again?

titan said:

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Now to consider the other side. Given the showing at CPAC and the continued numbers, if Trump does run in 2024 because there is a large number still wanting it and maybe truly needed at the time (and let's pretend no fight with DeSantis occurred, he just chose not to) -- if he does, what could the center and right do to insure the election proceeded in any kind of manner of reliability?

In other words, going to what Joes and others of similar mind said, WHAT has changed that they couldn't undermine the outcome with selective coverage and TDS again?

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My mind is trending towards a darker place. Like say, June 1968.

jt16 said:

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Trump is the only candidate that could possibly lose to Biden

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THIS

Trump wants to win period. He wants to go out as a winner and that be his legacy. If he runs - prob 50-50 he gets to go out as a winner, but worse for him he could actually go out as a 2 time defeated candidate (legit or not). If he plays kingmaker and endorses a winner in DeSantis, he gets that winning legacy and can still sit back and look at polls and say "I would've won if I ran" and take all the credit for a DeSantis victory.
Don't think there aren't GOP and Future DeSantis operatives in Trumps ear telling him this exact thing.

UTExan said:

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Desantis should be the choice. Trump is too radioactive and getting old.

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the Always Trumpers seem to never realize that Donald would be EIGHTY TWO YEARS OLD if he was to get elected.

82 freaking years old as the President of the United States, when most CEOs retire 17 years earlier.

he would literally be the oldest President in US history

but that's okay, because he is so well liked and admired by the US public, I am sure they will overlook the age thing. .