CoachO_08 said:

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Guess we are about to find out if the woke crowd is really woke or if they just think whatever the Chi-coms tell them to think…

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DP

The next five years are going to be interesting for China and thus the rest of us. Zeihan has said for years China will not be a nation a decade from now. This weekend he said he thinks it could happen this year. When it happens it's gonna be a bitter pill for the China cheerleaders on the left and right.

He has definitely moved his prognostication of their fall up. I heard him say this decade and maybe within the next couple of years. Will be interesting to see if it pans out. I think if it happens we will see a China more like the feudal regional states of old versus the united nation we see now.

What could happen this year, and why? Honestly wondering. Ill have to look into this fella you talk about.

LOYAL AG said:

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The next five years are going to be interesting for China and thus the rest of us. Zeihan has said for years China will not be a nation a decade from now. This weekend he said he thinks it could happen this year. When it happens it's gonna be a bitter pill for the China cheerleaders on the left and right.

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Well, that's interesting. He's been pretty prescient so far.

atmtws said:

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What could happen this year, and why? Honestly wondering. Ill have to look into this fella you talk about.

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Understand what China is.

• It is a collection of regional peoples with little in common other than the CCP.
• It is the source of low cost labor that is the world's #1 importer of food and energy.
• It is also the fastest aging society in human history with a demographic pyramid that has inverted meaning they have soaring labor costs and soon to be more retirees than workers.
• They've abused their currency significantly more than the US has abused the dollar and they have no reserve status to fall back on.
• They have no naval power of consequence and their coastline is covered up by an chain of island rival nations none of which like them.

None of that adds up to security and the demographic pyramid and currency manipulation add up to a rapidly approaching economic collapse. When it happens it's thought we could see the nation dissolve and the regional peoples go their separate ways.

Quote:

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no one cares about the uyghurs

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LOYAL AG said:

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atmtws said:

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What could happen this year, and why? Honestly wondering. Ill have to look into this fella you talk about.

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Understand what China is.

• It is a collection of regional peoples with little in common other than the CCP.
• It is the source of low cost labor that is the world's #1 importer of food and energy.
• It is also the fastest aging society in human history with a demographic pyramid that has inverted meaning they have soaring labor costs and soon to be more retirees than workers.
• They've abused their currency significantly more than the US has abused the dollar and they have no reserve status to fall back on.
• They have no naval power of consequence and their coastline is covered up by an chain of island rival nations none of which like them.

None of that adds up to security and the demographic pyramid and currency manipulation add up to a rapidly approaching economic collapse. When it happens it's thought we could see the nation dissolve and the regional peoples go their separate ways.

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Always comforting when talking about a nuclear power.

AggieKatie2 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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atmtws said:

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What could happen this year, and why? Honestly wondering. Ill have to look into this fella you talk about.

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Understand what China is.

• It is a collection of regional peoples with little in common other than the CCP.
• It is the source of low cost labor that is the world's #1 importer of food and energy.
• It is also the fastest aging society in human history with a demographic pyramid that has inverted meaning they have soaring labor costs and soon to be more retirees than workers.
• They've abused their currency significantly more than the US has abused the dollar and they have no reserve status to fall back on.
• They have no naval power of consequence and their coastline is covered up by an chain of island rival nations none of which like them.

None of that adds up to security and the demographic pyramid and currency manipulation add up to a rapidly approaching economic collapse. When it happens it's thought we could see the nation dissolve and the regional peoples go their separate ways.

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Always comforting when talking about a nuclear power.

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Yeah I posted as much yesterday. The biggest similarity between China and Russia is that they're eyeing a neighbor and they're dying nations. If an invasion of a neighbor triggers a military response from the US that's a losing proposition for both of them so at some point do they go nuke because they know it's over? Definitely not a good place to be with those two.

I think the nuclear capabilities of the super powers (including the US) are vastly overstated.

What we're seeing is what the Communists intend for all of us if they get their way. UNDENIABLE

YouBet said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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The next five years are going to be interesting for China and thus the rest of us. Zeihan has said for years China will not be a nation a decade from now. This weekend he said he thinks it could happen this year. When it happens it's gonna be a bitter pill for the China cheerleaders on the left and right.

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Well, that's interesting. He's been pretty prescient so far.

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Disturbingly so. I dismissed more than one prediction from his earlier books that now seem completely plausible. I was suffering from too much normalcy bias.

ESPN analysis: NBA owners, mum on troubled China relationship, have more than $10 billion invested there

I'll just leave this here...You don't have to click though - the info is right in the headline.
"Hard hitting journalism" from ESPN.

China and Russia are dying nations but China can keep up its fake economy for more than this year. They have too much influence from western politicians that they can hang on for a decade or so. If things continue as they are now they will be done by the end of this generation though.

But with recent events of China saying they would attack America by this November (interesting timing with midterms) in terms of the great and final war.

China has the largest navy in the world, they have over 350 and the USA is just shy of 300. We do have more aircraft carriers and more experience and more nuclear powered equipment.

The USA has a lot more experience and are not a paper tiger like Russia. But our enemies have been watching us and learning the past 20 years.

e=mc2 said:

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China is ass hoe

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Stop hitting people in the mouth...

LOYAL AG said:

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When it happens it's gonna be a bitter pill for the China cheerleaders on the left and right.

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Who on the right is cheerleading for China?

You can have a million ships but if you cant resupply them at sea they may as well be flotsam. What is the Chinese auxiliary fleet like? Ours is in bad shape. Half of the fleet replenishment oilers are broken down at any given time and the newest one that was built had to immediately have the main engine switchboard retrofitted because it was not adequate. The others they are in the process of building are getting hacked up die to cost over runs and timeline issues.

Our ammo ships are in better shape but the military brass is more concerned with fighting running rust than they are actually readiness b

This is below my threshold for caring about - actual quote from an NBA owner in a televised interview.

Nobody cares from the left. It's a non issue. Leftists love communism and communists.

P.U.T.U said:

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But with recent events of China saying they would attack America by this November (interesting timing with midterms) in terms of the great and final war.

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china launched their attack November 2019

One day people will look back on us with disdain for turning a blind eye to this in exchange for cheap goods and services

P.U.T.U said:

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China and Russia are dying nations but China can keep up its fake economy for more than this year. They have too much influence from western politicians that they can hang on for a decade or so. If things continue as they are now they will be done by the end of this generation though.

But with recent events of China saying they would attack America by this November (interesting timing with midterms) in terms of the great and final war.

China has the largest navy in the world, they have over 350 and the USA is just shy of 300. We do have more aircraft carriers and more experience and more nuclear powered equipment.

The USA has a lot more experience and are not a paper tiger like Russia. But our enemies have been watching us and learning the past 20 years.

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Agree with all but the bold. Zeihan's comments about it ending as early as this year were surprising. BTW in the same video he said Apple has doubled down on China and that would be a major problem for them sooner rather than later. It hasn't been that long since we saw headlines about Apple, Amazon and Google all shifting some manufacturing to Viet Nam so I'm kind of curious on that one as well.

As to the bold China's boat count isn't important at all. It's those aircraft carriers that matter when it comes to projecting force. If there's ever a hot war with them we'll park a couple of carrier groups in the shipping lane from the Persian Gulf to the Chinese coast and we'll sink anything inbound or outbound and there's nothing they can do about it because they can't sail that far. Once we start doing that China runs out of oil in a matter of months. Their navy is designed to sabre rattle along their coastline but it doesn't have the ability to sail far enough from home to escort oil tankers back from the middle east.

I'm absolutely convinced that China does the things they do to keep us engaged in the current world order. Bribing our politicians and threatening Taiwan are both done to keep us propping up the world as it exists today rather than pulling the rug and letting whatever happens happen. China knows their entire existence is due to us and they know if we withdraw it's over so they do what they have to do to keep us from withdrawing.

CanyonAg77 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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When it happens it's gonna be a bitter pill for the China cheerleaders on the left and right.

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Who on the right is cheerleading for China?

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The left is enamored with Communism as an economic system and the right is enamored with the iron hand control and how swiftly communism dictators get things done. We've had this around here for years.

I have not thought about it yet but I am not sure how much navies matter in current conflicts. Let's say half of their ships are shipworthy. We easily have more F22 and F35s that could take out any of their ships. From a quick thought carriers are more important in a battle between the USA and China, they have 2 operational and we have ~10. Plus we have more and better missiles.

LOYAL AG said:

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CanyonAg77 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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When it happens it's gonna be a bitter pill for the China cheerleaders on the left and right.

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Who on the right is cheerleading for China?

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The left is enamored with Communism as an economic system and the right is enamored with the iron hand control and how swiftly communism dictators get things done. We've had this around here for years.

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Okay.....