Democrats in danger of losing 3 Congressional seats in South Texas

6,012 Views | 39 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by TRM
Fat Black Swan
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https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/14/south-texas-democrats-cuellar-vela-gonzalez

Quote:

Thanks to a succession of self-inflicted choices, fallout from redistricting and some flat bizarre circumstances, Democrats are confronting a mind-numbing set of complications in their fight to hold on to three seats in South Texas. And national polling indicates Democrats have no room for error if they want to hold off a Republican challenge in a region that was once a historical Democratic stronghold.

"For Democrats, there may simply be too many fires to put out at once," national political analyst David Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report, said to The Texas Tribune.

"Each of the South Texas districts has some unique circumstances, but they could all add up to a big headache for Democrats and make it more difficult to retain control of the House," said Nathan Gonzales, a political analyst and publisher for Inside Elections.

Per Wasserman, who rates the competitiveness of U.S. House races for a living, Democratic circumstances are becoming dire.

"President Biden's anemic approval ratings with Hispanic voters and on the immigration issue could already be putting TX-15 out of reach (now that it's a Trump seat), and the FBI raid and a Vela-triggered special election are massive distractions for Democrats in TX-28 and TX-34, respectively," he wrote in an email to the Tribune.

"South Texas has become Democrats' worst nightmare," wrote House GOP campaign spokesperson Torunn Sinclair, blaming Democratic policies on the border, energy and economy in an email to the Tribune. "Trends show South Texas is already leaning Republican, and Democrats have done nothing to reverse the trend, and their policies are making it worse."

Ag87H2O
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LegalDrugPusher
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Vote for Myra Flores and Monica de La
Cruz
MallalieuAg
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Democrats don't care about real American Hispanics. They care more about the illegal ones.
e=mc2
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Texas Hispanics have traditional families. Everything the Democrats are doing turns them off. Thank God!
Tom Doniphon
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Hispanics in Texas don't agree with the transgender BS? Who knew?

Winning the Hispanic vote is the most important thing conservatives can do.
zoneag
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Beyond the terrible economic issues, a big problem for the radical leftist regime is that Hispanics are simply not woke at all.
TRM
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If Cisneros beats Cuellar in the run-off, TX-28 is going to flip to the GOP. Her agenda is going to turn off many Hispanics, you can't argue for defunding Border Patrol/ICE and the Green New Deal, when you have such a large number of Hispanics working those jobs.
SeMgCo87
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MallalieuAg said:

Democrats don't care about real American Hispanics. They care more about the illegal ones.
Of course. Dem operated big cities in Texas and other surrounding States can grant them voting rights in local elections, fully compliant ID's as well...

Which can cause confusion in registration / voting in National elections because...how can you tell the difference? Libs in office would scream bloody murder if you added "Local Elections Only" to their voter ID, or Driver's License...kinda like the "Scarlet Letter", trampling on several Amendments at once, too.
sleepybeagle
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"Shut up latinx, get in line, and just vote like we tell you to!"
TRM
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Some of these idiots have moved on to forcing Latine instead of Latinx. It's not going to catch on either.
Sgt. Schultz
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Conservatives slowly but surely need to overcome the engrained belief that "the democrats are for the working people." I had a neighbor who died a few years ago who used to tell me this all the time. He voted democrat because his dad did, his grandfather did, his friends did, and the belief that democrats are for the working people.
Once when were having a few beers, I put the party platforms to him in a series of questions. They were copied from each party with the buzz words removed. He circled his choice on about 15 issues. I then gave him both party's platforms unedited. He voted republican from that day forward.
I know nothing!
The Chicken Ranch
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Some of y'all underestimate the fraud machine the Democrats have in South Texas. La Palanca!

All three Democrats will win just like they always do.
WolfCall
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The Chicken Ranch said:

Some of y'all underestimate the fraud machine the Democrats have in South Texas. La Palanca!

All three Democrats will win just like they always do.
^ Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Looks like most people in Texas don't want to support Biden and his woke Transgender (a.k.a. Democratic) party.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10728441/When-Biden-Dems-chose-socialism-wokeism-American-Dream-lost-Latinos-GLORIA-ROMERO.html
Quote:

There's nothing Democrats can do to stop Latinos from abandoning Biden in droves. When he and his party chose socialism and wokeism over the American Dream they lost us, writes GLORIA ROMERO, former Democratic leader of the California State Senate

By GLORIA ROMERO FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 12:01 EDT, 18 April 2022 | UPDATED: 12:19 EDT, 18 April 2022

Just in time for the upcoming celebrations of Cinco de Mayo, Latinos are sending unmistakable mutterings of 'Que @#$%&! es eso?' a spicy Spanish version of 'Let's Go Brandon' to the Biden Administration and the Democratic Party.

The most recent tolling of the political bells was revealed in last week's Quinnipiac poll, showing only 26 percent of Latinos approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job.

That's a nearly 10-point drop of Biden's approval rating among Latinos from April 6th when he garnered a paltry 34 percent......

......
I voted for this because I like Mean Tweets!
I am always wrong
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WolfCall said:

The Chicken Ranch said:

Some of y'all underestimate the fraud machine the Democrats have in South Texas. La Palanca!

All three Democrats will win just like they always do.
^ Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Looks like most people in Texas don't want to support Biden and his woke Transgender (a.k.a. Democratic) party.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10728441/When-Biden-Dems-chose-socialism-wokeism-American-Dream-lost-Latinos-GLORIA-ROMERO.html
Quote:

There's nothing Democrats can do to stop Latinos from abandoning Biden in droves. When he and his party chose socialism and wokeism over the American Dream they lost us, writes GLORIA ROMERO, former Democratic leader of the California State Senate

By GLORIA ROMERO FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 12:01 EDT, 18 April 2022 | UPDATED: 12:19 EDT, 18 April 2022

Just in time for the upcoming celebrations of Cinco de Mayo, Latinos are sending unmistakable mutterings of 'Que @#$%&! es eso?' a spicy Spanish version of 'Let's Go Brandon' to the Biden Administration and the Democratic Party.

The most recent tolling of the political bells was revealed in last week's Quinnipiac poll, showing only 26 percent of Latinos approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job.

That's a nearly 10-point drop of Biden's approval rating among Latinos from April 6th when he garnered a paltry 34 percent......

......



Those Latinos better be careful or the left might decide they aren't "minorities" or "people of color" anymore. You have to vote the right way to keep those privileges.
e=mc2
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The Chicken Ranch said:

Some of y'all underestimate the fraud machine the Democrats have in South Texas. La Palanca!

All three Democrats will win just like they always do.
That may be the case, but Republicans are winning local races in the valley and pretty easily. MAs make better Texans than any while liberal!
WolfCall
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Nice article in today's Washington Examiner about what we've been discussing on this Thread and others: Multiple demographics dissatisfied with Biden and the Democrats.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-mirrors-their-working-class-voter-problem
Quote:

Democrats lose Hispanic and blue-collar voters at same time
by Sarah Westwood, Investigative Reporter | | April 19, 2022 07:00 AM

Hispanic voters are rapidly reevaluating their relationship with the Democratic Party, creating a problem for Democrats that, in some ways, mirrors their struggle to retain working-class voters.

A Quinnipiac poll published last week found that Hispanic voters disapproved of President Joe Biden's job performance more than any other racial group, with just 12% of Hispanics saying they "approve strongly" of how he is handling the office....

....

....One year after a majority of Hispanics voted for Biden, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe lost the Hispanic vote by as many as 12 points in Virginia in 2021, a race that turned on whether his party had lost touch with the concerns of everyday parents.
I voted for this because I like Mean Tweets!
jamieboy2014
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The Rio Grande Valley (TX) and the Miami-Dade area (FL) are giving dem strategists nightmares for sure.

The RNCC is already investing more in these areas than in any previous election cycle and the grassroots efforts by the locals have been pretty amazing considering how those areas have always typically voted.

Nevada is another state that could get verrrrrry interesting due to the high rural working-class Hispanic population which tends to be way more socially conservative than the urban Hispanic bloc.
If your username is jickyjack1, Shooter McGavin, proudaggie02, txrancher69, or Rick Deckard... don't bother responding. You won't offer anything insightful.
American Hardwood
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This rift between the democrats and Hispanics is very simple. It's democrat racism.

All they see is brown people. All brown people are the same. Brown people have always voted for democrats in high numbers. Therefore, we need to get more brown people because they will all always vote democrat.

Their racist plantation has worked very well on black people for the last 60 years (breaking this down is for a different discussion) so they assume that it will work for brown people too. After all, brown people and black people are pretty the same right? Multi-generation brown Americans aren't any different than illegal brown foreigners right?

But as we all know, brown people are NOT all the same. And we are seeing that played out right now in the Great Red Shift. Identity politics can only be effective in an environment of lies. If you live on the border, there is no way in hell to cover what is happening there with lies. Everyone knows the truth from their personal experience.
oh no
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MallalieuAg said:

Democrats don't care about real American Hispanics. They care more about the illegal ones.
they don't care about the Venezuelan or Cuban ones either- they send those ones back because they're anti-communist. There's a particular illegal mass migrant demographic they're targeting/inviting with a "path to amnesty". Add the 20-30 million already here to the +2 million / year clip they've invited so far, they think they have a path to permanent power. That, plus other stated goals like adding PR and DC as states, expanding and packing the SCOTUS, and getting rid of the electoral college.
nortex97
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TRM said:

If Cisneros beats Cuellar in the run-off, TX-28 is going to flip to the GOP. Her agenda is going to turn off many Hispanics, you can't argue for defunding Border Patrol/ICE and the Green New Deal, when you have such a large number of Hispanics working those jobs.
Serious question; aren't most BP/ICE agents/employees in Texas...hispanic?
Hubert J. Farnsworth
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zoneag said:

Beyond the terrible economic issues, a big problem for the radical leftist regime is that Hispanics are simply not woke at all.


Liberals would faint if they ever worked with and listened to a crew of hispanic guys, in South Texas, interacting with one another. "Not woke" and "vulgar" are putting it mildly.
carl spacklers hat
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The Chicken Ranch said:

Some of y'all underestimate the fraud machine the Democrats have in South Texas. La Palanca!

All three Democrats will win just like they always do.
Jale la palanca! Translates to Pull the lever, and is used to describe the propensity for South Texas Hispanics to vote straight party ticket - Democrat Party. It will take a continuation of cultural change to break that propensity, and will require work not just in the street but also in the pew. The Catholic Church in the RGV is a big proponent of the Liberal agenda, and attendees to regular Catholic Mass are subjected to the political persuasions of the Church. Valley Interfaith is another very active religious organization that is on the far left spectrum of politics. The shift from blue to red is happening but it might not be as quickly as we want.

As far as the three candidates in question: Vela isn't running for re-election, and Vicente's district has been gerrymandered so he is running for Vela's old seat. I don't see Cuellar losing, at least not this cycle, so at best, two seats could flip to R. But it is going to take a lot of work.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Sgt. Schultz
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carl spacklers hat said:

The Chicken Ranch said:

Some of y'all underestimate the fraud machine the Democrats have in South Texas. La Palanca!

All three Democrats will win just like they always do.
Jale la palanca! Translates to Pull the lever, and is used to describe the propensity for South Texas Hispanics to vote straight party ticket - Democrat Party. It will take a continuation of cultural change to break that propensity, and will require work not just in the street but also in the pew. The Catholic Church in the RGV is a big proponent of the Liberal agenda, and attendees to regular Catholic Mass are subjected to the political persuasions of the Church. Valley Interfaith is another very active religious organization that is on the far left spectrum of politics. The shift from blue to red is happening but it might not be as quickly as we want.

As far as the three candidates in question: Vela isn't running for re-election, and Vicente's district has been gerrymandered so he is running for Vela's old seat. I don't see Cuellar losing, at least not this cycle, so at best, two seats could flip to R. But it is going to take a lot of work.
That is interesting considering that in my neck of the woods, the parishes of the Catholic Church are pretty doggone conservative. Abortion pretty much eliminates the democrat party from consideration. You cannot in good conscious be a catholic and vote for someone that aligns with a pro-abortion party.
I know nothing!
TRM
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nortex97 said:

TRM said:

If Cisneros beats Cuellar in the run-off, TX-28 is going to flip to the GOP. Her agenda is going to turn off many Hispanics, you can't argue for defunding Border Patrol/ICE and the Green New Deal, when you have such a large number of Hispanics working those jobs.
Serious question; aren't most BP/ICE agents/employees in Texas...hispanic?
I don't about most, but if it's not a majority, it's most likely a plurality.
Sully Dog
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Dems are going to lose their seat in Wyoming this year too.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
aggiejim70
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TRM said:

If Cisneros beats Cuellar in the run-off, TX-28 is going to flip to the GOP. Her agenda is going to turn off many Hispanics, you can't argue for defunding Border Patrol/ICE and the Green New Deal, when you have such a large number of Hispanics working those jobs.
Serious question. Do you really see that happening? I live in 28, and our little corner of Guadalupe County seems to get the short end of the stick. For years the district included us and up to south Austin, so we were stuck with Lloyd Doggett. Now the district goes into San Antonio, down 35 to Laredo and south-east along the border. I so want Cisneros defeated that I voted in the the Democrat primary for Cuellar with the intention of voting for the Republican in the fall. Very little, if anything, was heard about any of the Republicans prior to the primary.

I'm just not sure I understand what you're basing your statement on. (King's English)
The person that is not willing to fight and die, if need be, for his country has no right to life.

James Earl Rudder '32
January 31, 1945
TRM
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Cisneros and Benavides, another leftist, both got more than 50% of the vote. Not to mention the casual voter is not going to pay attention to a runoff.
aggiejim70
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I need some clarification. If Cisneros, got more than 50 percent of the vote, there would be no runoff.
She finished a close second to Cuellar. If they had just split the 5 percent that went to the third candidate, Cuellar would have won the nomination.
The person that is not willing to fight and die, if need be, for his country has no right to life.

James Earl Rudder '32
January 31, 1945
TRM
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Sorry. I worded that poorly. Cisneros and Benavides combined for more than 50%. Benavides is aligned with Cisneros on nearly every issue.
TRM
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-are-lost-at-the-border-title-42-henry-cuellar-primary-democrats-rio-grande-11651172463
or the archive version
https://archive.ph/LgbmD
Quote:

Yet Mr. Biden's stunning mismanagement of the border and the economy is putting Mr. Cuellar and other border representatives at risk. Mr. Cuellar will have a November race on his handsthat is, if he even gets that far. He first must survive a May 24 runoff for the nomination against Jessica Cisneros, a progressive attorney who supports lifting Title 42, and whose victory may cede the district to the GOP. Forget Democrats' longtime goal to turn Texas blue. Mr. Biden and his progressive crew are making it redder.
Quote:

It also creates for Democrats a risk of broader defeat. The party is losing its grip on Hispanic voters, who are losing patience with inflation, identity politics, crime and open borders. A March Wall Street Journal poll found that Hispanic voters nationwide said they would back a Republican for Congress over a Democrat by 9 points. An April Quinnipiac poll found Mr. Biden's approval among Hispanics at a shocking 26%, compared with 33% of Americans overall.
nortex97
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That's awesome. Cuellar is one of the few Democrats I don't loathe, and I hope he loses the primary to cede the district to the GOP.

Never, ever vote for a Democrat. I think Cuellar is realizing that he is not wanted in that party any longer.
Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

TRM said:

If Cisneros beats Cuellar in the run-off, TX-28 is going to flip to the GOP. Her agenda is going to turn off many Hispanics, you can't argue for defunding Border Patrol/ICE and the Green New Deal, when you have such a large number of Hispanics working those jobs.
Serious question; aren't most BP/ICE agents/employees in Texas...hispanic?
Well...I go through the I69 BP checkpoint numerous times a year and I've only seen 2 non-hispanic agents in all those times.

The BP agents work somewhere near where they live. The vast majority of people near the border are hispanic. Stands to reason that the vast majority of agents would be too.
doubledog
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The Dems will need to decide.. Give up the <1% of their potential voters for the >18 % of Hispanic voters...
aggiejim70
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To quote the late great Waylon Jennings "Tell me one more time, just so I'll understand it."

In district 28, if Cisneros wins the Democrat nomination, you see enough Cuellar voters voting Republican in the fall to flip the district to Republican. If that's what you mean, I hope you're right.

But to quote another great entertainer, Linda Ronstadt, "Honey child, I've got my doubts."
The person that is not willing to fight and die, if need be, for his country has no right to life.

James Earl Rudder '32
January 31, 1945
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