I don't think the Russians are ready for a gorilla war.
We should never cede the moral high ground to people who justify the debasement of society as reparative justice and then lie to us about how, why and even whether it’s
being destroyed from within.
Initially: topple it quickly and absorb as a state. Subsequently: protracted campaign to do the same. Eventually: bring em to the table and take some chunks.
Putin is likely done if he retreats without a reward in hand, and thus far he's been reluctant to play with his less-surgical toys. If he doesn't get a 'win' he's likely to escalate to harsher methods such as area-effect weapons.
Putin and the Russians did not anticipate anywhere near this level of resistance. Putin believed that everything would be over in a day or two. They completely screwed up and now they are in serious trouble.
Putin initially wanted to put the band back together (USSR) while also having access to all of Ukraine's resources which are huge. Putin is now hoping that he can bull his way through this mess before he gets removed from power or gets shot in the back of the head.
Why does Putin have to take Ukraine by force? You would think with all the KGB tactics that they could corrupt the government enough to essentially control it without using the military.
If Ukraine can stay independent on the border of Russia then what the hell were we so worried about during the Cold War?
Considering the lack of response from the rest of the world, I am guessing Putin feels like he can do whatever the hell he wants. China will be in Taiwan soon.
1. Drag NATO into war 2. China invades Taiwan 3.. Iran tests a nuke
Complete financial meltdown which prevents a Russian or Chinese economic default from meaning anything.
If NATO holds off, Russia will default and then Putin is screwed. If Russia defaults, NATO knows it's just about over and then China will turncoat on Putin.
So does Russia just want to absorb Ukraine? Won't they face decades of gorilla warfare in trying to do so?
If they install a puppet government, doesn't it just get overthrown someday when Russia gets tired of having large numbers of troops in country?
I'm having trouble understanding the desired end game for Russia.
I believe Putin thought his army was stronger and more prepared to overcome such a small country with a much smaller and lesser army. I believe The entire country of France was taken in 6 weeks during WW2. Putin thought this would be a layup only to get exposed on the world stage. He has no endgame now as it's taken too long to take Ukraine. He is no longer considered a global threat to those that matter. Nuclear talks are just that, a bunch of talks. No one is going to end the entire world/planet by launching them in modern times. Once everyone got nuclear weapons they lost their ultimate value
Yeah Putin assumed he would get the same indifference he got in Crimea and Chechnya. Fight for a few days and expand the empire and his power. That was their original goal, based on people telling Putin what he wanted to hear on how it would go. I think they, and especially him, are shocked by the response. Now, the scary part is, who knows what they think they can achieve. I say scary because a cornered despotic narcissist isn't going to simply lay over. And even if he was right, I don't think it was wise of Biden to call him a war criminal today, If Putin thinks he is going to get prosecuted if he backs off, it only lowers the odds of a peace deal and an end to fighting.
So does Russia just want to absorb Ukraine? Won't they face decades of gorilla warfare in trying to do so?
If they install a puppet government, doesn't it just get overthrown someday when Russia gets tired of having large numbers of troops in country?
I'm having trouble understanding the desired end game for Russia.
There's already been a guerilla war in the Donbas region for the better part of a decade because they're split between wanting to be Russia or Ukraine.
And even if he was right, I don't think it was wise of Biden to call him a war criminal today, If Putin thinks he is going to get prosecuted if he backs off, it only lowers the odds of a peace deal and an end to fighting.
I don't think Putin gives two ****s what Biden says about him.
Putin already knows he has earned the war criminal tag and doesn't matter that Biden said it. He will not live through this and maybe if it's threatened on what will happen to his family he will negotiate to go quietly.
Generally I agree. But I would bet he does care about being prosecuted, and it would take the US leading the charge for that to happen. Today was a step in that direction.
Russia is a dying nation with borders it can't defend and taking Ukraine improves that. This delays the inevitable for them from maybe a generation to closer the end of this century.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
The scary part...I think he's effed...is beginning to realize it and the longer this goes on, the more nervous (read desperate) he will become. His circle of faithful has to be shrinking proportionately as the lack of evident success grows. On the world stage he is now a pariah and "has been" that no one will honestly respect or trust.
Likely a "Dead man walking". If/when he comes to that conclusion...all bets are off as to his actions.
An anonymous FSB (the new KGB) document leaked last week discussed how they gave an unrealistically glowing assessment of something - Ukraine invasion - they thought was only a theoretical discussion. This could've been a made up document, but several days later the head of the FSB and several other high ranking officers were arrested, as were any analysts who could have spoken to journalists.
So, Putin believed he could sweep into Ukraine, take the DNR and LNR regions for Russia while installing a friendly government and removing many of the defenses. It's been reported that Putin believes that it is his calling from God to reform the USSR, that expansion of the Russian empire will be his lasting legacy. He's established hundreds of churches in Russia, especially around Moscow (hence the reason the Russian Orthodox bishop of Moscow has spoken out in favor of the invasion (leading to other churches outside Russia who are Russian Orthodox to break off from Moscow).
But now, without the swift accomplishments of their objectives, Russia is struggling with how to extricate themselves from a mess that they've made. They can't turn tail and run, they'll lose face. They can eventually win in Ukraine, but they won't have the power to occupy it, as it's far too big and would take way a large percentage of their forces to do so, leaving other fronts vulnerable. They need some sort of win parameter.
You can see them pushing for what they ultimately wanted, a vassal state, in their latest "compromise" where one of the conditions is that Ukraine would get to keep a small defense force but agree to remain neutral on the world stage. Russia needs the resources of Ukraine to flow. But they also dread seeing them join a NATO alliance, allowing for things they definitely don't want (but will and have tried in the past) such as the placement of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or a NATO / US base in Ukraine.
Russia doesn't like NATO on their borders, hence why we heard things before the invasion about returning to previous NATO borders from 20 years ago (which would require booting several Baltic state members out).
Their only way out while saving face is to either get the promises they want (no NATO, chief amongst them) or they'll have to finish the war by conquering Ukraine. And to do that, they'll have to do what we've started seeing already - indiscriminate bombing and attacks.
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1) Crimea is strategically important for oil and ports. Ukraine was starving Crimea of fresh water. Russia had to fix that. I belive that this was the impetus for the timing of now for the invasion.
2) Kiev is the birthplace of the Russian Orthodox church. Imagine prince Salmon of Saudi Arabia not having control of Mecca, and the country where Mecca was located started negotiating treaties with the US. Kiev is a holy place to Russia. This is not well understood by westerners.
3) Putin screwed up. He is still living in 1979. The economic global response has been awe inspiring, even if we have been complete ******* kenetically.
1) Crimea is strategically important for oil and ports. Ukraine was starving Crimea of fresh water. Russia had to fix that. I belive that this was the impetus for the timing of now for the invasion.
2) Kiev is the birthplace of the Russian Orthodox church. Imagine prince Salmon of Saudi Arabia not having control of Mecca, and the country where Mecca was located started negotiating treaties with the US. Kiev is a holy place to Russia. This is not well understood by westerners.
3) Putin screwed up. He is still living in 1979. The economic global response has been awe inspiring, even if we have been complete ******* kenetically.
Watching a dying hegemonic power piss away its last chance of creating a key ally in the upcoming war with China is only "awe inspiring" if by that you mean utterly disappointing and pathetic.
This war is entirely the fault of the US for myriad reasons. 1) Repeated NATO expansion despite promises to the Russians. Nato. You know an explicitly anti-Russian death spiral alliance. 2) Repeated sponsorship/instigation/support of color revolutions to further isolate Russia. Georgia, Ukraine #1, Ukraine #2, Belarus (failed), Kyrgyzstan (failed), potentially the various nations of the "Arab spring". 3) For inexplicable reasons rug pulling the Russians after the fall of the USSR while simultaneously propping up other Soviet states. 4) insane levels of hypocrisy over a defensive move when the United States invaded/overthrew the government of/or supported civil wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, the Balkans, Libya, Syria. That's just some of the last 30 years. Not even going back to despicable acts such as the support of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. Sure, let's keep pushing a dog in the corner and be surprised when it bites after repeated whippings.
Somehow while we are simultaneously whinging about how we need to tear down statues to Jefferson or Ross, we are directly funding and arming literal neo-nazis in Ukraine. Think the Russians are making that up out of thin air? Maybe you should read up on declared "hero of Ukraine" Bandera, Azov, the Right Sector, Svoboda... the list is endless. https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/ukraine-has-nazi-problem-vladimir-putin-s-denazification-claim-war-ncna1290946. Neo-nazis who very likely are the ones who conducted the massacre that marked the tipping point in Euromaidan.
Oh look, India is gravitating away from the US, which inevitably puts them in closer ties with China as well. https://www.ft.com/content/a5ee2d6b-693f-475d-80c6-0036c2657ef1. Have fun in a post petrodollar post "pax Americana" world so that the political elite can siphon more money for themselves. Do you think countries that can avoid the petrodollar, Western finance systems and its goblins (e.g. the IMF), and our invasive technology (apple, android, social media) are going to stay when we just showed that we will cut you off the second you don't bow down to our hypocritical world order?
Oh wow. The press is still telling you that U.S. biolabs in Ukraine are "Russian disinformation" after Nuland (of color revolution fame) admitted they are real and the US is nervous about it. https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r. Weird that the same people who silenced you for even discussing the lab leak theory now are saying the extant biolabs don't exist simultaneously asserting Russia may use them for a bio attack. Hmmmm.
So does Russia just want to absorb Ukraine? Won't they face decades of gorilla warfare in trying to do so?
If they install a puppet government, doesn't it just get overthrown someday when Russia gets tired of having large numbers of troops in country?
I'm having trouble understanding the desired end game for Russia.
I believe Putin thought his army was stronger and more prepared to overcome such a small country with a much smaller and lesser army. I believe The entire country of France was taken in 6 weeks during WW2. Putin thought this would be a layup only to get exposed on the world stage. He has no endgame now as it's taken too long to take Ukraine. He is no longer considered a global threat to those that matter. Nuclear talks are just that, a bunch of talks. No one is going to end the entire world/planet by launching them in modern times. Once everyone got nuclear weapons they lost their ultimate value
yes, France surrendered in June 1940 after the Wehrmacht invaded the low countries on 10 May.
Ukraine has fought about 10 times harder than France did. because their society was not willing to die for their freedom, so the vast majority simply surrendered once the Germans pushed through Sedan.
Churchill could literally not believe what was happening- there is a famous quote when he yelled at the French generals to fight
he was incredulous that 200 German Panzer tanks could force the million man army of France to surrender.
