Frac has been around for 100 years in some way, shape, or form. What changed the industry was horizontal drilling and fracing 24 hours a day. Horizontal drilling had been around a while but stage frac'ing as we now know it really took off sometime during Obama.

When I started in the oilfield, we frac'ed one stage per day, rigged down, and frac'ed a different well the next day. Some crews frac as many stages in a month as we frac'ed in an entire year 20 years ago.

To your point, things have certainly changed but the technological advances the past 10-15 year have certainly increased production.

Alright, to follow up my earlier US Oil Production post with the OPEC Numbers.
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

OPEC claims this is world Demand in Mb/d
2018 - 99.07
2019 - 100.10
2020 - 90.97
2021 - 96.65

Versus world Supply in Mb/d
2018 - 100.01
2019 - 100.13
2020 - 93.67
2021 - 95.05

Now how much of that is OPEC Supply?
2018 - 31.35
2019 - 29.36
2020 - 25.65
2021 - 26.32

How much of that is Russian Supply?
2018 - 11.52
2019 - 11.61
2020 - 10.59
2021 - 10.80

Russian Demand has remained around 3.5 Mb/d

So if we're going to pull 7+ Mb/d off the market (about 7% of world demand), that's going to leave a mark.

Tom Doniphon said:

---

Simple answer.... if this admin is so much better, why has everything gone to hell?

---

The Dems have ruined everything they tough by plan, then they turn around and blame other people

Why has our economy always been destroyed when a Dem is in office .. look at how well we did under Trump, it can't even be compared to how Biden has destroyed this country, it's not even close. Yet the Dems have an excuse of why they continue to destroy our country.. sick people

Working for a supplier of a major feedstock component of refineries, anyone claiming that supply of crude isn't readily available for refining is full of ****…

Refineries along the gulf coast are taking our product at a historically high rate, which means that gas is being produced at high levels. You don't run refineries at max capacity if there is no crude to refine…

This is NOT a supply issue…

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

---

Frac has been around for 100 years in some way, shape, or form. What changed the industry was horizontal drilling and fracing 24 hours a day. Horizontal drilling had been around a while but stage frac'ing as we now know it really took off sometime during Obama.

When I started in the oilfield, we frac'ed one stage per day, rigged down, and frac'ed a different well the next day. Some crews frac as many stages in a month as we frac'ed in an entire year 20 years ago.

To your point, things have certainly changed but the technological advances the past 10-15 year have certainly increased production.

---

OK, thanks. It seems we hit the groove about the time Obama took office. I remember him taking credit for the huge production increase in his SOTU in 2013, as though he had a darn thing to do with it.

tk111 said:

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aTmAg said:

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Wells are turned on when they are profitable. As prices go up, less productive wells are turned on. However, if the cost of electricity is also going up at the same rate, then there is no reason to turn an unproductive well on.

The fact that wells are not pumping IS an indictment of the Fed and Biden's idiotic attempts to spend us out of inflation, not the reverse.

---

Except this is still wrong. FFS you don't just "turn on" wells and more production. That's not how it works. Yeah there are shut-in and temp abandoned wells out there but the VAST majority of them that werent forced to be plugged already are garbage gas wells that wouldn't make a dog fart if "turned on". That production is lost.

The only way to increase (or even maintain flat) production (outside of well stimulations, re-fracs, behind-pipe re-perfs, etc that can marginally increase production) is to drill new wells. There is no big valve we can go out and turn up or turn on.

Drilling new wells now involves going out and obtaining new leases for most companies because they probably let whatever they had before expire due to awful prices, doing the geo and planning work, then getting permits from inept regulatory agencies, building locations and planning midstream details, finding and hiring one of the very few remaining rigs and crews left to drill, finding and hiring one of the very few remaining frac outfits to frac and then complete the well. A company that is able to accomplish this in light speed is looking at 4+ months before a new well is done.

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Are you saying that once a well is turned off, it can no longer produce?

Environmentalist are the elites. They don't give a **** about how badly their poli iies hurt the middle and poor.

FireAg said:

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Working for a supplier of a major feedstock component of refineries, anyone claiming that supply of crude isn't readily available for refining is full of ****…

Refineries along the gulf coast are taking our product at a historically high rate, which means that gas is being produced at high levels. You don't run refineries at max capacity if there is no crude to refine…

This is NOT a supply issue…

---

Yeah, that's not how this works. If supply is so short that physical deliveries to refiners is affected, we are in a catastrophe.

This is how the media elites think

it's time to focus our attention on the issues that affect mainstream Americans, like the latest newsroom intrigues in NY and DC pic.twitter.com/nYt6SmDcah

— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) March 8, 2022

This is nothing new, this is what incremental socialism and liberal policies do.

Step 1: implement "fairer" policies that go against free market principles in order to "fix" problems with the free market

Step 2: When the inevitable problems arise that actually make the issues Step 1 was supposed to address worse, blame the free market because the fix couldn't possibly be the cause.

Step 3: implement further "fixes" that make the problems even worse. Rinse. Repeat.

In other words, the current American health care system

goatchze said:

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FireAg said:

---

Working for a supplier of a major feedstock component of refineries, anyone claiming that supply of crude isn't readily available for refining is full of ****…

Refineries along the gulf coast are taking our product at a historically high rate, which means that gas is being produced at high levels. You don't run refineries at max capacity if there is no crude to refine…

This is NOT a supply issue…

---

Yeah, that's now how this works. If supply is so short that physical deliveries to refiners is affected, we are in a catastrophe.

---

Supply is still plentiful in the US...Russian oil is more important to Europe than the US...

And even in Europe, at this moment, they are still importing Russian crude (subject to change, of course)...

Biden admin declared war on fossil fuels.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-bizarre-oil-diplomacy-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-russia-vladimir-putin-saudi-arabia-ukraine-11646694275?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

Quote:

---

Biden's Bizarre Oil Diplomacy
He courts Venezuela and the Saudis, but not U.S. or Canadian producers.
By The Editorial Board March 7, 2022 6:37 pm ET

President Biden is scrambling to contain soaring oil prices, which closed at more than $123 a barrel on Monday. It speaks volumes about this Administration that it's seeking help from Vladimir Putin's client in Venezuela and our estranged Saudi allies rather than U.S. shale producers or our Canadian friends....

...

---

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/energy-industry-psaki-oil-and-gas-leases-ceraweek

Quote:

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Published 8 hours ago

Energy industry swipes back at Psaki 'red herring' comment on oil and gas leases
'That accusation is a complete red herring,' one energy industry representative said of Psaki's comment
By Tyler Olson FOXBusiness

......

---

aggiedata said:

---

This is how the media elites think

it's time to focus our attention on the issues that affect mainstream Americans, like the latest newsroom intrigues in NY and DC pic.twitter.com/nYt6SmDcah

— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) March 8, 2022

---

So stupid.

I could easily say:

If you pay $7/day for coffee, something is wrong.

Redassag94 said:

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Keep hearing from the Dems and talking heads that oil wells aren't pumping and aren't producing and this is on the oil industry. Thus this isn't the fault of anything Biden has done. My first reaction is this is likely BS, but haven't looked for sure. Anybody have data to show the opposite? This is more blame shifting and like normal is likely BS. However if it's not, I will eat my crow.

I do see that there was an infographic going around on twitter showing we are producing more oil under Biden than anytime during Trump. Turns out that graphic was a lie.

---

ask a leftist WHY would perfectly good oil wells be not running?!

because the oil companies decided to suddenly not want to make any more money and disburse profits to their shareholders?!?

and why is it that Trump had the USA energy independent, and now we are importing oil again? pure coincidence?!?

Our state legislators and regulators in Texas have enacted laws, regulations, and fees that have caused many small oil operators to go out of business. The state then paid to have their wells plugged (even though a lot of them were profitable), although there are many unplugged orphan wells that have been abandoned for over 25 years.

The local taxing districts lost tax revenues from these wells that were plugged out by the state.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/07/jen-psaki-is-a-lying-liar-who-lies-insane-gas-prices-edition/

Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

FireAg said:

---

Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

---

Inventories at Cushing would beg to disagree with 8% being noise. They are less than half of what they were last year at this time. If inventories are depleting weekly, that 8% is massive on the margins. You either replace it or start curtailing refining at the refineries.

FireAg said:

---

Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

---

The amount of oil we buy from Russia isn't the rudder on this, it's that we're buying Russian oil at all; funding Putin's regime.

The 5200 Acres said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

---

Inventories at Cushing would beg to disagree with 8% being noise. They are less than half of what they were last year at this time. If inventories are depleting weekly, that 8% is massive on the margins. You either replace it or start curtailing refining at the refineries.

---

The refineries along the gulf coast are running at max capacity right now...

If crude oil supply is a problem because of Russia, then where are they getting the supply to refine from?

My point is that high gas prices are not a supply/demand issue in the US...we have plenty of supply to be refined...and we are doing it as we speak...

Aggie95 said:

---

also seeing a lot of "this administration has approved more leases this year than Trump did"

---

Still banned fracking on fed land. What good is lease?

Sounds like regulation has played a big role in this as well. Included in this is the lack of investment due to ESG. All of this is part of the green agenda.

Quote:

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Quote:

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FireAg said:
Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

---

The 5200 Acres said:
Inventories at Cushing would beg to disagree with 8% being noise. They are less than half of what they were last year at this time. If inventories are depleting weekly, that 8% is massive on the margins. You either replace it or start curtailing refining at the refineries.


FireAg said:
The refineries along the gulf coast are running at max capacity right now...

If crude oil supply is a problem because of Russia, then where are they getting the supply to refine from?

My point is that high gas prices are not a supply/demand issue in the US...we have plenty of supply to be refined...and we are doing it as we speak...

---

.
So you don't think there can be a problem until supply is actually curtailed to your refinery? The fact that inventories are drawing down and a supplier is about to be taken off line is irrelevant?

This reminds me of the joke Steve McQueen's character tells in The Magnificent Seven about the guy that jumped off of a 10 story building. As he passed windows on every floor people heard him say "So far, so good".

FWIW, Russian crude would never directly make it to your refinery. But crude oil is a fungible commodity. Those plants currently refining Russian crude will have to source it from somewhere else. Eventually, your refinery will be competing with some other refinery for the crude you are currently sourcing.

fullback44 said:

---

Tom Doniphon said:

---

Simple answer.... if this admin is so much better, why has everything gone to hell?

---

The Dems have ruined everything they tough by plan, then they turn around and blame other people

Why has our economy always been destroyed when a Dem is in office .. look at how well we did under Trump, it can't even be compared to how Biden has destroyed this country, it's not even close. Yet the Dems have an excuse of why they continue to destroy our country.. sick people

---

People voting for President Biden and the Democratic Party leadership weren't listening:

Biden Administration Currency Nominee Says Goal Is To 'Bankrupt' Coal, Oil And Gas Industries (VIDEO) By Mike LaChance - November 11, 2021

There May Be No Choice but to Nationalize Oil and Gasand Renewables, Too August 2020 Sean Sweeney

Democrats want to Nationalize the Oil Companies JUNE 18, 2008

FireAg said:

---

goatchze said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Working for a supplier of a major feedstock component of refineries, anyone claiming that supply of crude isn't readily available for refining is full of ****…

Refineries along the gulf coast are taking our product at a historically high rate, which means that gas is being produced at high levels. You don't run refineries at max capacity if there is no crude to refine…

This is NOT a supply issue…

---

Yeah, that's now how this works. If supply is so short that physical deliveries to refiners is affected, we are in a catastrophe.

---

Supply is still plentiful in the US...Russian oil is more important to Europe than the US...

And even in Europe, at this moment, they are still importing Russian crude (subject to change, of course)...

---

Cushing isn't exactly full right now, which increases the risk of tight domestic supplies if there is a disruption of imports. That gets factored into the price.

And we have to remember that WTI is far more tied to the global market than ever before. That is why the spread to Brent has been around $3 for a long time . And it makes sense, considering we export about 3.5 MMbbl/d of crude. Tight supplies internationally will also get factored in to the price.

December deliveries are trading at $100/bbl now. That means the markets expect tight supplies and not a lot of new production...nine months from now. And if you compare that to the spot price, we're in extreme backwardation. This implies a shortage of oil right now. Not a catastrophic shortage, but enough to push the price up.

None of these market signals, say, "supply is plentiful".

The 5200 Acres said:

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

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FireAg said:
Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

---

The 5200 Acres said:
Inventories at Cushing would beg to disagree with 8% being noise. They are less than half of what they were last year at this time. If inventories are depleting weekly, that 8% is massive on the margins. You either replace it or start curtailing refining at the refineries.


FireAg said:
The refineries along the gulf coast are running at max capacity right now...

If crude oil supply is a problem because of Russia, then where are they getting the supply to refine from?

My point is that high gas prices are not a supply/demand issue in the US...we have plenty of supply to be refined...and we are doing it as we speak...

---

.
So you don't think there can be a problem until supply is actually curtailed to your refinery? The fact that inventories are drawing down and a supplier is about to be taken off line is irrelevant?

This reminds me of the joke Steve McQueen's character tells in The Magnificent Seven about the guy that jumped off of a 10 story building. As he passed windows on every floor people heard him say "So far, so good".

FWIW, Russian crude would never directly make it to your refinery. But crude oil is a fungible commodity. Those plants currently refining Russian crude will have to source it from somewhere else. Eventually, your refinery will be competing with some other refinery for the crude you are currently sourcing.

---

Not my refinery...refineries are customers...we sell a major feedstock to them...

They are currently consuming it at historically high rates which means they have crude to refine...no problem...

aggie93 said:

---

Fundamentally you need to understand that most people have no realization of how the O&G business works or farming or most things. This is especially true of liberals who think they are saving the planet by buying an electric car with "zero emissions" because electricity comes magically into the socket. The Bloomberg quote a few years ago hit the nail on the head to show this ignorance:

Quote:

---

I can teach anybody even people in this room, so no offense intended to be a farmer. It's a process. You dig a hole, you put a seed in, you put dirt on top, you add water, up comes corn.

---

To them you just "turn on the oil pump" anytime you want. They have no understanding of what is involved in terms of risks and capital expenditures nor do they care. All they know is it isn't their fault.

Another good example is liberals from the city love to romanticize bears. They think they are cute and wonderful. Folks who live in communities with bears know they get into freaking everything and they are extremely dangerous and can be viscous, especially Grizzlies. At best they are a nuisance.

---

Kudos for bringing up the hazardous nature of bears and the gaslighting of turning them into victims.

the Ags board rules!!

you could literally ask 30% of the American population how gasoline gets to the gas station- and they would have no idea.

goatchze said:

---

FireAg said:

---

goatchze said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Working for a supplier of a major feedstock component of refineries, anyone claiming that supply of crude isn't readily available for refining is full of ****…

Refineries along the gulf coast are taking our product at a historically high rate, which means that gas is being produced at high levels. You don't run refineries at max capacity if there is no crude to refine…

This is NOT a supply issue…

---

Yeah, that's now how this works. If supply is so short that physical deliveries to refiners is affected, we are in a catastrophe.

---

Supply is still plentiful in the US...Russian oil is more important to Europe than the US...

And even in Europe, at this moment, they are still importing Russian crude (subject to change, of course)...

---

Cushing isn't exactly full right now, which increases the risk of tight domestic supplies if there is a disruption of imports. That gets factored into the price.

And we have to remember that WTI is far more tied to the global market than ever before. That is why the spread to Brent has been around $3 for a long time . And it makes sense, considering we export about 3.5 MMbbl/d of crude. Tight supplies internationally will also get factored in to the price.

December deliveries are trading at $100/bbl now. That means the markets expect tight supplies and not a lot of new production...nine months from now. And if you compare that to the spot price, we're in extreme backwardation. This implies a shortage of oil right now. Not a catastrophic shortage, but enough to push the price up.

None of these market signals, say, "supply is plentiful".

---

Price has been jumping $0.20-$0.30 a day almost...if it were moving a few pennies, I would e more inclined to believe pricing pressures are being caused by S&D...but this is way more than just S&D strains on the market..

FireAg said:

---

The 5200 Acres said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Less than 8% of oil imported to the US comes from Russia...

More than 60% come from Canada and Mexico...

Russian imports barely qualify as "noise" when it comes to US oil imports...

---

Inventories at Cushing would beg to disagree with 8% being noise. They are less than half of what they were last year at this time. If inventories are depleting weekly, that 8% is massive on the margins. You either replace it or start curtailing refining at the refineries.

---

The refineries along the gulf coast are running at max capacity right now...

If crude oil supply is a problem because of Russia, then where are they getting the supply to refine from?

My point is that high gas prices are not a supply/demand issue in the US...we have plenty of supply to be refined...and we are doing it as we speak...

---

They're getting it from inventory, which is not high, and which is declining.

High gas prices are a supply/demand issue. And like with oil, prices for refined products in the US are tied to global supply/demand. We export over 3 MMbbl/d of distillates. That's on top of the crude that we export.

FireAg said:

---

goatchze said:

---

FireAg said:

---

goatchze said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Working for a supplier of a major feedstock component of refineries, anyone claiming that supply of crude isn't readily available for refining is full of ****…

Refineries along the gulf coast are taking our product at a historically high rate, which means that gas is being produced at high levels. You don't run refineries at max capacity if there is no crude to refine…

This is NOT a supply issue…

---

Yeah, that's now how this works. If supply is so short that physical deliveries to refiners is affected, we are in a catastrophe.

---

Supply is still plentiful in the US...Russian oil is more important to Europe than the US...

And even in Europe, at this moment, they are still importing Russian crude (subject to change, of course)...

---

Cushing isn't exactly full right now, which increases the risk of tight domestic supplies if there is a disruption of imports. That gets factored into the price.

And we have to remember that WTI is far more tied to the global market than ever before. That is why the spread to Brent has been around $3 for a long time . And it makes sense, considering we export about 3.5 MMbbl/d of crude. Tight supplies internationally will also get factored in to the price.

December deliveries are trading at $100/bbl now. That means the markets expect tight supplies and not a lot of new production...nine months from now. And if you compare that to the spot price, we're in extreme backwardation. This implies a shortage of oil right now. Not a catastrophic shortage, but enough to push the price up.

None of these market signals, say, "supply is plentiful".

---

Price has been jumping $0.20-$0.30 a day almost...if it were moving a few pennies, I would e more inclined to believe pricing pressures are being caused by S&D...but this is way more than just S&D strains on the market..

---

In December, RBOB was $2.00 and WTI was $65. That's a ratio of 32.

Today, RBOB is $3.70 and WTI is $125. That's a ratio of 34.

Prices at the pump are going up because WTI is going up. WTI is going up because of supply disruptions and the risk of future supply disruptions.

The Biden admin. has significantly increased the cost to drill and produce oil, natural gas, etc. Drilling companies / producers know their break-even and aren't going to drill and produce at a loss.

The regulatory burden, fees, and taxes all went up substantially after FJBs rash of executive orders....

Russia / Ukraine impact is actually minimal compared to the last 10 months of price increases. That is a historical fact.

Saudi Arabia & United Arab Empire will not talk with Biden on oil prices.
I guess "long walk on a short plank"!

baron_von_awesome said:

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HollywoodBQ said:

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Here's the source:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m

Note these US oil production levels in Mbpd as they map to the beginning of Presidential terms:
Jan. 1961 - 7.210 - Kennedy
Jan. 1965 - 7.773 - LBJ
Jan. 1969 - 8.888 - Nixon I
Jan. 1973 - 9.176 - Nixon II
Jan. 1977 - 7.854 - Carter
Jan. 1981 - 8.540 - Reagan I
Jan. 1985 - 8.740 - Reagan II
Jan. 1989 - 7.937 - Bush 41
Jan. 1993 - 6.961 - Clinton I
Jan. 1997 - 6.402 - Clinton II
Jan. 2001 - 5.799 - Bush 43 I
Jan. 2005 - 5.446 - Bush 43 II
Jan. 2009 - 5.144 - Obama I
Jan. 2013 - 7.084 - Obama II
Jan. 2017 - 8.873 - Trump
Jan. 2021 - 11.056 - Biden

Looking at those numbers, it appears that the Bushes and Clinton hated Oil while Obama and Trump loved oil.

And for the domestic energy independence crowd, the most oil we ever produced domestically was 12.966 Mbdp in November 2019. November 2021, we were only down to 11.773 Mbpd which was still more than when Biden took office.

I'll have to dig up the OPEC numbers for comparison.

---

Might as well go all the way back to 1920 and show us the numbers, because what you posted is useless. Nice try though.


The chart and numbers look at lot different if you dont skip years.
Trump 2020 12,785


Also, lets wait and see what the production values look like AFTER we see the damage done by the Democrats

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Sorry I broke your brain.