In the past, rising gas prices have lead to a drop in the price of larger vehicles. As we are coming off an all-time high in vehicle prices, especially half ton trucks, will this spike in oil and gas costs lead to a drop off in larger automobiles?

There is a ton of pent up demand that has yet to be served so I would anticipate supplies to be tight for awhile even as the mix of vehicles shifts to smaller vehicles.

We're not in a normal market due to supply chain issues. Even still, the pump prices of fuel will have an effect on demand for trucks, especially if the fuel prices remain high for any length of time.

I bought an F150 in 2008 for 2/3s of the normal price. The gas price was $4/gallon and they almost couldn't give trucks away. I'm still driving that truck--best vehicle I've ever owned.

The highest pump prices I saw here in San Antonio back in 2008 was $4.25 for regular gas before prices started dropping.

About to be a lot of first time buyers dumping their 1-2 year old travel trailers on the used market, too.

It's still in 1st gear but has already started.

Texker said:

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It's still in 1st gear but has already started.

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Are you in the biz?

Zero slowdown at the auctions. People who drive trucks are making more money today than ever. Texas economy is still booming. Construction is at an all time high. Laborers who usually make $10/hour are around $15-$20 with overtime.

That time was about 1.5 years ago.

Even with high gas, there is no inventory and tons of pent up demand. I do not believe pricing on new vehicles will change much.

2008 had tons of inventory
People bought small trucks and cars then

What's available now ?

The time to buy a big truck is going to be in a few years, when the mfg's ramp up finally with massive inventory.

I mean, unless you can get one with a full 24 gallon tank of diesel today. That would be worth a ton of money.

Yesterday said:

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Zero slowdown at the auctions. People who drive trucks are making more money today than ever. Texas economy is still booming. Construction is at an all time high. Laborers who usually make $10/hour are around $15-$20 with overtime.

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I'd venture to say that over half of people who drive trucks don't use them. There are several corporate accountants who drive their trucks downtown and park it in a parking garage everyday with an empty bed.

AgResearch said:

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That time was about 1.5 years ago.

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Bought my 2500 diesel in October 2020. Glad I did

Capt. Augustus McCrae said:

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Yesterday said:

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Zero slowdown at the auctions. People who drive trucks are making more money today than ever. Texas economy is still booming. Construction is at an all time high. Laborers who usually make $10/hour are around $15-$20 with overtime.

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I'd venture to say that over half of people who drive trucks don't use them. There are several corporate accountants who drive their trucks downtown and park it in a parking garage everyday with an empty bed.

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I would say that is closer to five out of six people...

I'm hoping to buy a 10ish year old 4x4 in the next 6 months. Maybe from someone getting a new one after waiting for inventory and prices to get sane.

I have a 2018 F-350 diesel I use for hauling horse trailer and skid steer. Just ordered a new one a week ago that is due to deliver in three months..,,was lucky to only pay sticker. On Friday I sold an excess 2021 F-250 diesel I bought a year ago for $4,000 below sticker. I sold it on Friday to a dealership with 18,000 miles on it. They paid me $2,000 over sticker which was $6,000 more than I paid with zero miles. Huge supply chain issues.

This one is going to be hard to predict but I would say you should be buying one within 5-7 years as your max horizon for two more medium term reasons:

The US government has an open and active policy to kill gas based vehicles in order to enslave us to China EVs. This one is EO driven.

The US government has passed legislation that will require breathalyzers and tracking AI on all new vehicles within that time frame. This one is federal law.

Capt. Augustus McCrae said:

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Yesterday said:

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Zero slowdown at the auctions. People who drive trucks are making more money today than ever. Texas economy is still booming. Construction is at an all time high. Laborers who usually make $10/hour are around $15-$20 with overtime.

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I'd venture to say that over half of people who drive trucks don't use them. There are several corporate accountants who drive their trucks downtown and park it in a parking garage everyday with an empty bed.

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No doubt there are tons of these drivers. Thanks to Covid a lot of them are not going to the office or are going in half the time making gas prices not as bit of an issue. That can obviously change.

A third medium term consideration for would be truck owners....

We are moving to a vehicle class-based mileage usage fee that may also consider your ethnicity while driving. Thus, if you are a white guy driving a big truck - you are going to pay more in fees than anyone else on the road.

While those fees will be higher, you may avoid the swings in fuel prices month to month due to global O&G events.

This is also now federal law.

YouBet said:

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A third medium term consideration for would be truck owners....

We are moving to a vehicle class-based mileage usage fee that may also consider your ethnicity while driving. Thus, if you are a white guy driving a big truck - you are going to pay more in fees than anyone else on the road.

While those fees will be higher, you may avoid the swings in fuel prices month to month due to global O&G events.

This is also now federal law.

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Go on about the ethnicity part and how has this not been challenged in court yet

Marcus Brutus said:

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Texker said:

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It's still in 1st gear but has already started.

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Are you in the biz?

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I was so just a casual observer now.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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YouBet said:

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A third medium term consideration for would be truck owners....

We are moving to a vehicle class-based mileage usage fee that may also consider your ethnicity while driving. Thus, if you are a white guy driving a big truck - you are going to pay more in fees than anyone else on the road.

While those fees will be higher, you may avoid the swings in fuel prices month to month due to global O&G events.

This is also now federal law.

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Go on about the ethnicity part and how has this not been challenged in court yet

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As if courts matter. It will have to go to the SC before it gets stopped.

It shouldn't have even made it out of committee.

When they are stacked deep and selling cheap.

I am selling a salvage value 96' chevy 1 ton with a 454. The amount of folks that want it is SHOCKING. Getting 10-12 new bites per day on facebook marketplace at 9k.


Last year it was worth 3000-3500. Going to end up selling to a good friend for 5000 instead of dealing with the selling circus.

• The automakers just celebrated raking in the most profit per car year on record.
• Its going to take years to get the supply chain sorted out
• Cars are still a consumable and every year a million+ get taken off the road due to age, problems, and wrecks
• People avoiding huge new car payments are stuck with buying older and older used cars, increasing the prices on the used market.

There is also a real timeline issue with the federal government trying to roll out more nanny state tech in cars. There's going to be at least some small part of the country that will make sure to buy the last new car model that doesn't have it.

one MEEN Ag said:

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• The automakers just celebrated raking in the most profit per car year on record.
• Its going to take years to get the supply chain sorted out
• Cars are still a consumable and every year a million+ get taken off the road due to age, problems, and wrecks
• People avoiding huge new car payments are stuck with buying older and older used cars, increasing the prices on the used market.

There is also a real timeline issue with the federal government trying to roll out more nanny state tech in cars. There's going to be at least some small part of the country that will make sure to buy the last new car model that doesn't have it.

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Hear, hear. My point above.

I already have it on our household timeline to do just this. We only put 5k miles per year on my car and about 8k on my wife's so I'm hoping to ride those as long as possible and time it such that we buy one of the last non-nanny tech cars made. I plan on it being a Toyota or Lexus to maximize life of vehicle.

I also realize I will probably pay a premium for these cars because there will be a rush to buy cars that are not the Federal 1984 version that approves access to even start and then continually monitors your face while driving. Timing this is going to be challenging I bet.

one MEEN Ag said:

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• The automakers just celebrated raking in the most profit per car year on record.
• Its going to take years to get the supply chain sorted out
• Cars are still a consumable and every year a million+ get taken off the road due to age, problems, and wrecks
• People avoiding huge new car payments are stuck with buying older and older used cars, increasing the prices on the used market.

There is also a real timeline issue with the federal government trying to roll out more nanny state tech in cars. There's going to be at least some small part of the country that will make sure to buy the last new car model that doesn't have it.

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Yep.

Ford is shutting down the Kentucky truck plant and something in Detroit for a couple of weeks due to supply shortage. I think what you'll see is reduction in frivolous purchases of trucks like the bro dozer parked at HEB to get organic groceries. Those guys don't need the trucks usually could barely afford them anyway. It's better for them to sell it for what they paid for it Or more and roll into something they can manage. It's going to be different now with the rising costs of everything. Peoples paychecks aren't going up. They have to do more with less now.

I expect vehicle prices to come down as soon as this fuel price spike causes a recession. That's when you will get the best deals

For what it's worth, Goldman thinks used car prices will start dropping in November. Their track record on inflation is suspect at best though.

Been eyeing a new TRX.

Been looking at diesels, 2500 or 3500 in anticipation of buying a used 5th wheel.

I have an 08 5.3 Z71 4x4 Silverado 1500 with 78k miles. 0 Accidents, bought it from a little old lady 5 years ago with stupid low miles for $14k. Currently at 78k miles. Online car sites are all saying it's worth around 15k. I'll keep it at that price and just convert it to a 6.0 duramax... cheaper to get all the upgrades required with that conversion to actually achieve the increased tow rating and stress.

Wouldn't be as good as a 2500 or 3500 but it doesn't make sense to buy used or new at these prices unless you're making money hot shotting, have a ranch/farm, etc.. No way I'm paying some cowboy who more or less made up a price for his 200-300k mile rig.

EW2 said:

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Been looking at diesels, 2500 or 3500 in anticipation of buying a used 5th wheel.

I have an 08 5.3 Z71 4x4 Silverado 1500 with 78k miles. 0 Accidents, bought it from a little old lady 5 years ago with stupid low miles for $14k. Currently at 78k miles. Online car sites are all saying it's worth around 15k. I'll keep it at that price and just convert it to a 6.0 duramax... cheaper to get all the upgrades required with that conversion to actually achieve the increased tow rating and stress.

Wouldn't be as good as a 2500 or 3500 but it doesn't make sense to buy used or new at these prices unless you're making money hot shotting, have a ranch/farm, etc.. No way I'm paying some cowboy who more or less made up a price for his 200-300k mile rig.

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Order one for less than MSRP. Just wait three months.

When the oil prices rose in the mid 1970s, my oldest brother bought a used truck that was not at all gas friendly. When I asked him about it, he said that the discounted price because of the oil prices were far more than the added cost of gas -- if it was worth the money at 35 cents per gallon, gas would have had to go up to something like $2 or $3 per gallon to make it a bad deal.

rwtxag83 said:

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We're not in a normal market due to supply chain issues. Even still, the pump prices of fuel will have an effect on demand for trucks, especially if the fuel prices remain high for any length of time.

I bought an F150 in 2008 for 2/3s of the normal price. The gas price was $4/gallon and they almost couldn't give trucks away. I'm still driving that truck--best vehicle I've ever owned.

The highest pump prices I saw here in San Antonio back in 2008 was $4.25 for regular gas before prices started dropping.

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Okay, this is EXACTLY my story too.

I bought when everyone was selling. 2008. King Ranch. Told the guy I don't want to do the whole back and forth to the manager, just give me the best price.

He came back with more than 10000 off sticker.

I bought that truck for an amount that was crazy. Still driving it.

But with Stupid pretending to be president, it's going to take a lot longer for the market to adjust and correct.