YouBet said:

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titan said:

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YouBet said:

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wildmen09 said:

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YouBet said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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Hate to tell you this, but he just sent Kamala to Europe to negotiate this on his behalf, so.......

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Didn't see that, I wish her success. But at this point, we're probably better off with the Europeans negotiating. Sad

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We are and I'm glad they finally started making noise about taking the lead this week. It's their problem to solve and I suspect Biden's total incompetence finally made them realize they had to take the reins or this was 100% leading to war.

I'll point this fact out again - the EU has 300M more people than Russia and 18x the GDP as Russia. They don't need us to figure this out.

Still might be too little; too late.

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That's just the thing. Putin is not Biden, or Schumer or any of the low watt and entirely self-serving politicians. He has to know the logistics better than many ----- is this a Czechslovakia gamble? Meaning--- if they resist, my own military may throw me down (Halder was prepared to do this to Hitler) - -BUT...if they blink, I get really valuable territory and people for little cost.

But if Ukraine chooses to fight, it already can't be Czechslovakia --- so what is the real game.

Getting them to not join NATO seems easy enough, but there seems more to it.

OTOH, We do have to understand that because of the DC conduct this century, Russia correctly sees NATO as simply still aimed at them. To join it is to become a hostile. It is not a benign act. That is a factor our press and politicos willfully forgets often when giving their speeches.

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I think it's two things:

1. What you said about NATO.
2. Russia is dying...literally. Not today or tomorrow but that is their trend line. They need resources and like-cultured people to bolster their state. They are highly diseased and unhealthy. Their life expectancy is 70. That is pitiful for a supposedly developed country that is largely similar in ethnicity across the gamut of their ethnic groups.

Enter Ukraine - a huge land mass with resources and ports that is aligned ethnically and culturally. That doesn't fix their life expectancy and health issues, but it gives them breathing room.

That also conveniently plays into the thought that Putin is wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire (not the USSR), so he essentially gets two birds with one stone by doing this.

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Those two with the conclusion add up to a very good and persuasive take. Even a sympathetic one. From a 20,000 foot view of history it might even be the most constructive direction overall however it impacts the present. We are finding that the unipolar wolrd is too dangerous now that DC has become malignant and there is no check on China. Good arguments can be made for the need for the return of some balance.

Certainly, food for thought, because those motivations are basic ones and not so venal as the wreckers here.

wildmen09 said:

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100% agree with #2. The big question is, do we care? Should we care? Or do we go with appeasement?

I think we are a war weary country (rightfully so) and this ends the way Putin wants.

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I don't care and not sure that we should in the grand scheme of things. We have zero strategic interest there.

Taiwan is an actual, critical strategic concern. China will own the planet if they take Taiwan...at least as long as it would take us to ramp up our own chip production enough to offset which is at least 5 years away, if not longer.

Would rather we divert resources to them than Ukraine.

YouBet said:

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wildmen09 said:

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100% agree with #2. The big question is, do we care? Should we care? Or do we go with appeasement?

I think we are a war weary country (rightfully so) and this ends the way Putin wants.

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I don't care and not sure that we should in the grand scheme of things. We have zero strategic interest there.

Taiwan is an actual, critical strategic concern. China will own the planet if they take Taiwan...at least as long as it would take us to ramp up our own chip production enough to offset which is at least 5 years away, if not longer.

Would rather we divert resources to them than Ukraine.

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Correct. It also has the backwards advantage (but history outside of campus views works that way) that a revived Russia can help you with China if you have avoided conflict with them. Again from the 20,000 ft view, some kind of evening out of the Russian sphere toward less decay in the face of eventual renewed Middle East threat will have a role to play.

We have no chance of containing China by ourselves with 21st C mindsets. The WW II or Cold War era America, maybe, but not now.

If I'm China, I go for Taiwan right after the Olympics if Russia has moved on Ukraine. In fact, that's my prediction. This dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks administration can't handle Russia, much less China at the same time. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Russia and China were in this together and that's been the plan all along.

China and Russia are playing relative 3D chess right now, and the idiots-in-charge of the federal government wouldn't recognize a checker board with a sign on it that says "checker board."

_mpaul said:

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If I'm China, I go for Taiwan right after the Olympics if Russia has moved on Ukraine. In fact, that's my prediction. This dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks administration can't handle Russia, much less China at the same time. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Russia and China were in this together and that's been the plan all along.

China and Russia are playing relative 3D chess right now, and the idiots-in-charge of the federal government wouldn't recognize a checker board with a sign on it that says, "checker board."

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If the past is any guide (and it very much is in this kind of thing where human nature is involved) it would be a mistake to assume too much coordination between the two rivals to us. They are indeed playing 3-D chess, but you can bet keeping each other fully informed and in the picture is not part of it.

Its more like both recognize a sucker enabling them to go ahead with their designs when they see it. For Putin, this is entirely consistent with his desire to revive the Tsarist empire outline, a long running project. For China, their prescription for Taiwan is well known. They may be loosely in this together but the behind the scenes reading of Soviet Russia and Red China actions in the Cold War can make comical reading, as can the German relations wth Japan in the Axis.

There is no reason to believe any of their natures have changed in that regard.

I voted for Romney in 2012 and have since come to regret it, but let's not forget how he was ridiculed in 2012 for calling Russia the biggest geopolitical threat facing the United States.

Romney was right about Russia

_mpaul said:

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I voted for Romney in 2012 and have sense come to regret it, but let's not forget how he was ridiculed in 2012 for call Russia the biggest geopolitical threat facing the United States.

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Well that was also partly because of his background. They want it to be. They are not the biggest geopolitical threat by natural outcome; so much as pushed. Notice how China is actually a far greater one and barely mentioned.

He was right in the general sense but the "biggest" is part of the desire for it to be seen as other than China and even other than D.C.'s domestic agenda as well.

Nitro Power said:

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He hasn't succeeded at a thing in his life. I highly doubt he's going to start on something of this magnitude.

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Not true, he did succeed in accidently selling his own driveway. Twice!

There is literally not a single redeeming quality about him. On a personal level, he's an ******* and always has been. Everything he touches (other than his own finances) turns to ***** He's incompetent and too old to be an effective manager, and has never had that skillset anyway.

He is in charge of 1/3 of the largest, most-powerful organization on the planet (and the vast majority of its employees), but does anyone actually think any Fortune 500, 2000, or even 10,000 company would hire him to be their CEO? Of course not. Yet that's what the states of done. It's insane.

Fightin_Aggie said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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It's not about hate. When you elect a compromised incompetent immoral man the world is going to roll you.

Any moral person with a pulse knew how to handle this
1. Don't approve Nordstream 2
2. Promote domestic energy independence
3. Don't abandon Afghanistan
4. Close the border
5. Build a military that is made to win wars not esg, crt and blm points
6. Open up and don't force vaccines on people who don't want them

Basically keep America Great

Biden believes in American weakness to build up his and his families fortunes.

The policies that the dem party have implemented lead to only one outcome. That is what you all voted for. Don't come crying to us now that we need to hope and pray it turns out well. Elections result in actions that have consequences. Be prepared for what they are.

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Damn fine post.
Frankly, I think the proverbial writing was on the wall when the world (ex China and Russia) watched in horror how badly Brandon botched the Afghanistan withdrawal. They saw America at its weakest and its worst and if ever was a time to be a bully they realize it's now. I will add that I think Brandon is compromised via dealings his crackhead son has had across the globe in enriching the Biden crime family. I'm sure China and Russia both are in possession of dirt that Brandon would never like to see the light of day.

wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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This cake was baked a long time ago. There is no viable outcome in which he "succeeds." Everything he touches turns to ***** It's always been that way.

For all the stupid **** Trump did to piss people off, he was a fairly effective manager, understood the dynamics of negotiations, and he wanted what was best for the country. (You can argue whether what he did was, in fact, best for the country, but I don't think you can credibly argue that was not his intent.)

Biden is, and always has been, a power-hungry jerk who is not interested in anything but himself. He's an incompetent boob. And now he's old, feeble, and unaware.

I'm neither surprised nor concerned this is happening. It was inevitable when he took office to anyone paying attention. I was resigned to it in November 2020. Just like the inflation numbers were inevitable. Just like the government's pathetic Covid response was inevitable. This is what you get from central planning every single time, and yet the left just thinks more "central planning" is the answer to everything they perceive as a problem.

One critical problem with the left has always been their collective hubris to think that they can control of all of these complex systems.

wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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what is "biden succeeding" in this scenario?

selling out the Ukrainians and thus Putin doesn't invade?

or not selling out the Ukrainians, and Putin doesn't invade?

_mpaul said:

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If I'm China, I go for Taiwan right after the Olympics if Russia has moved on Ukraine. In fact, that's my prediction. This dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks administration can't handle Russia, much less China at the same time. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Russia and China were in this together and that's been the plan all along.

China and Russia are playing relative 3D chess right now, and the idiots-in-charge of the federal government wouldn't recognize a checker board with a sign on it that says "checker board."

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Iran and North Korea say "hold my beer"

wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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Agreed. Anyone rooting for the US to fail so they can say Biden got owned is a poor example of an American

wildmen09 said:

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Fightin_Aggie said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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It's not about hate. When you elect a compromised incompetent immoral man the world is going to roll you.

Any moral person with a pulse knew how to handle this
1. Don't approve Nordstream 2
2. Promote domestic energy independence
3. Don't abandon Afghanistan
4. Close the border
5. Build a military that is made to win wars not esg, crt and blm points
6. Open up and don't force vaccines on people who don't want them

Basically keep America Great

Biden believes in American weakness to build up his and his families fortunes.

The policies that the dem party have implemented lead to only one outcome. That is what you all voted for. Don't come crying to us now that we need to hope and pray it turns out well. Elections result in actions that have consequences. Be prepared for what they are.

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I couldn't agree with you more, but that's water under the bridge at this specific moment in time. There will be a time to vote on those issues and potentially adjudicate them. Now is the time to hope and pray for our government. The definition of success, to the US, is no invasion. Too many dominoes will fall after that happens.

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well there would be no invasion if NATO declares they won't accept Ukraine

and if Zelensky abdicates

and if Russia is given a veto over Ukrainian foreign policy

and if Ukraine is "finlandized" so they have a neutral policy

is that "winning" for Joe Biden?

is "winning" giving the Iranians a few nuclear weapons so that no one has to bomb Iran in the future?

wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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Don't worry vp-harris is on the job, she's got this.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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This horse would have had a better change against Secretariat, Seabiscuit, and Man O War than Joementia has of handling this with any acumen. Both were due at the glue factory a long time ago.

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Nice comparison but you are saying dementia riddled peepaw has a chance.

Need a pic of a dead horse to clarify the 'chance'

When are the Olympics over. Have to avoid bad PR by invading a sovereign nation at the wrong time.

Of those, only the first would seem reasonable.

As said earlier, the fact is NATO is not a neutral entity. It has an anti-Russian stance.

It is not a benign act to join it.

Not offering that may be the best route that arguably isn't even appeasement. It cannot be denied that it has reaffirmed some kind of anti-Russian thrust. How else is Putin to see it?

But you have to say no to many of those like `finlandized' and veto over Ukraine.

BluHorseShu said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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Agreed. Anyone rooting for the US to fail so they can say Biden got owned is a poor example of an American

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I don't think anyone here is rooting for his failure.

We are all lamenting his incompetence and inevitable failure as a result of that.

BluHorseShu said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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Agreed. Anyone rooting for the US to fail so they can say Biden got owned is a poor example of an American

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Strawman. So far as I know there isn't anybody on this forum that has that position.

Do we need to start a pool for the date and time? Does the war officially start once the first tank crosses the border?

No, if its just one, it could be a probe and will be chacterized as a "mistake" on the boundary or orders.

torrid said:

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Do we need to start a pool for the date and time? Does the war officially start once the first tank crosses the border?

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Most start with an air strike...

BluHorseShu said:

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wildmen09 said:

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I know there are a ton on here that hate Biden, but we need him to succeed here. This is not a slope we want to go down. Nobody wins in this scenario

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Agreed. Anyone rooting for the US to fail so they can say Biden got owned is a poor example of an American

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Left did it towards Trump for 4 years. Says a lot

Probably some cyber and electronic warfare preceding or coinciding with missile and air strikes. Maybe some covert/false flag/sabotage too

Twitter videos appear to show Russian attack helicopters moving to forward sites today, which is another indicator of "soon"

GAC06 said:

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Probably some cyber and electronic warfare preceding or coinciding with missile and air strikes. Maybe some covert/false flag/sabotage too

Twitter videos appear to show Russian attack helicopters moving to forward sites today, which is another indicator of "soon"

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Highly doubtful Putin would attack with air or missiles, as in a direct undeniable brute force conquest.

Far more likely, mass cyber attack, and then you just "roll in" and invent your pretexts as you go. You count on the confusion and "fog" of war to make it look like the invasion is somewhat invited -- an Anschluss type thing or Crimea. They won't be able to entirely pull that off, but they won't have any chance at all of glossing it over if they use air strikes and missiles.

Look for them to instead do something overt enough to make the govt "take flight" --- if that happens, puppets will arise to call on the Russian assistance. More fog will descend. If the govt flees, you can practically guarantee it---if they decide to stay and fight, then its another game.

This is a charade. Russia is unlikely to invade. Zelensky ran his mouth about retaking crimea and the 2 eastern provinces. Putin rolled the red army up to the border and invited Z to go ahead and make his day. Z called Biden and asked if Biden had his back. Biden said "Uuuggghhhh…"

I've read a bunch of analysis that found Russia lacks the logistics to blitzkrieg through all of Ukraine. Invasion might succeed at a high price, but occupation would be a quagmire.

When Russia eventually does not invade, Biden will claim a foreign policy victory. It's smoke and mirrors. That is, unless Biden plays it so badly that he inadvertently opens up a window in the process.

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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This is a charade. Russia is unlikely to invade. Zelensky ran his mouth about retaking crimea and the 2 eastern provinces. Putin rolled the red army up to the border and invited Z to go ahead and make his day. Z called Biden and asked if Biden had his back. Biden said "Uuuggghhhh…"

I've read a bunch of analysis that found Russia lacks the logistics to blitzkrieg through all of Ukraine. Invasion might succeed at a high price, but occupation would be a quagmire.

When Russia eventually does not invade, Biden will claim a foreign policy victory. It's smoke and mirrors. That is, unless Biden plays it so badly that he inadvertently opens up a window in the process.

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Unless Kamala claims it first.

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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This is a charade. Russia is unlikely to invade. Zelensky ran his mouth about retaking crimea and the 2 eastern provinces. Putin rolled the red army up to the border and invited Z to go ahead and make his day. Z called Biden and asked if Biden had his back. Biden said "Uuuggghhhh…"

I've read a bunch of analysis that found Russia lacks the logistics to blitzkrieg through all of Ukraine. Invasion might succeed at a high price, but occupation would be a quagmire.

When Russia eventually does not invade, Biden will claim a foreign policy victory. It's smoke and mirrors. That is, unless Biden plays it so badly that he inadvertently opens up a window in the process.

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That makes a good deal of sense of what we see, as well as the western press and States tendency to lie and mischaracterize. And its important to remember the overseas meddling there under the Obama admin that Biden is literally continuing, completely with the crony high dollar deals of which Hunter is so much a part of.

I suppose that's possible too but Russia is pretty comfortable with flat out lies. Like when they said they weren't in Crimea, or they weren't in Donbas, or it was the Ukrainians that shot down the Malaysian 777, all of which were blatant verifiable lies.

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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This is a charade. Russia is unlikely to invade. Zelensky ran his mouth about retaking crimea and the 2 eastern provinces. Putin rolled the red army up to the border and invited Z to go ahead and make his day. Z called Biden and asked if Biden had his back. Biden said "Uuuggghhhh…"

I've read a bunch of analysis that found Russia lacks the logistics to blitzkrieg through all of Ukraine. Invasion might succeed at a high price, but occupation would be a quagmire.

When Russia eventually does not invade, Biden will claim a foreign policy victory. It's smoke and mirrors. That is, unless Biden plays it so badly that he inadvertently opens up a window in the process.

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Putin has to do something or get some significant concessions, or else he looks weak. And it's not his nature to allow himself to look weak.

GAC06 said:

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I suppose that's possible too but Russia is pretty comfortable with flat out lies. Like when they said they weren't in Crimea, or they weren't in Donbas, or it was the Ukrainians that shot down the Malaysian 777, all of which were blatant verifiable lies.

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No question. The brutal truth is all great powers are comfortable with flat out lies. That's why you have to track events in real time as best you can and let them speak for themselves.

For the unaccountable there is no downside to blatant lies and often can be for telling the truth.

Yeah I just mean that I don't think looking bad is a major factor to refrain from missile and air strikes. The flip side is that if they strike hard and fast enough maybe the Ukrainians will fold and they won't have to experience all those javelins

GAC06 said:

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Yeah I just mean that I don't think looking bad is a major factor to refrain from missile and air strikes. The flip side is that if they strike hard and fast enough maybe the Ukrainians will fold and they won't have to experience all those javelins

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Remember, these are not a bunch of Islamists. These are people that generally like one another. You risk really angering elements of your own as well. If you look at Crimea the whole point was making it look like Anschluss (in many ways it genuinely was) and NOT like the invasion of Poland.

The military advantages of using full force like that would probably be canceled by the feeling generated there and abroad after. Presumably Putin is weighing all of it.