ERCOT Report

The problem, though, is ERCOT chose a pretty generous (for them) extreme peak load. 2011 was not that cold and we estimate their extreme peak load will be exceeded in about 10% of the winters.https://t.co/mn7iQULiSq

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

But even with this optimistic peak load scenario, the picture is not pretty. @ERCOT_ISO estimates that such a demand combined with unexpected outages of thermal plants and low renewable production would result in a shortfall of 7.1 GW.

That's a shortfall of 10%!

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

And the shortfall gets a lot worse if 1) demand is higher than this extreme scenario (10% chance) or 2) if a lot more power is knocked offline because of cold temperatures. It's worth noting that significant power failures occurred in 2011, which caused a blackout that year.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

While a repeat of the 2021 winter blackout is unlikely (1-in-100 chance), it's clear that we could easily see a less severe blackout this year. I would put the chance at 1 in 10 or 1 in 20, consistent with the fact that we get blackouts here about every decade or two.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

The only thing that could reduce the chance of a blackout is if the ERCOT grid has somehow gotten more resilient over the last 6 months. It's possible because some things have changed — e.g., designating some natural gas infrastructure as critical so power to it doesn't get cut.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

But there's a real "rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic" vibe to ERCOT energy policy, so I'm doubtful these things will make a huge difference. Perhaps future actions will improve the resilience of the grid, but they're not going to help this winter.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

Should I buy Generac stock?

etxag02 said:

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ERCOT Report

The problem, though, is ERCOT chose a pretty generous (for them) extreme peak load. 2011 was not that cold and we estimate their extreme peak load will be exceeded in about 10% of the winters.https://t.co/mn7iQULiSq

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

But even with this optimistic peak load scenario, the picture is not pretty. @ERCOT_ISO estimates that such a demand combined with unexpected outages of thermal plants and low renewable production would result in a shortfall of 7.1 GW.

That's a shortfall of 10%!

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

And the shortfall gets a lot worse if 1) demand is higher than this extreme scenario (10% chance) or 2) if a lot more power is knocked offline because of cold temperatures. It's worth noting that significant power failures occurred in 2011, which caused a blackout that year.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

While a repeat of the 2021 winter blackout is unlikely (1-in-100 chance), it's clear that we could easily see a less severe blackout this year. I would put the chance at 1 in 10 or 1 in 20, consistent with the fact that we get blackouts here about every decade or two.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

The only thing that could reduce the chance of a blackout is if the ERCOT grid has somehow gotten more resilient over the last 6 months. It's possible because some things have changed — e.g., designating some natural gas infrastructure as critical so power to it doesn't get cut.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

But there's a real "rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic" vibe to ERCOT energy policy, so I'm doubtful these things will make a huge difference. Perhaps future actions will improve the resilience of the grid, but they're not going to help this winter.

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 19, 2021

Should I buy Generac stock?

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Yep, about a year ago.

This is what I don't get. Everyone is expecting the same exact thing to happen. Last winter was literally a once in a lifetime event, and areas experienced levels of cold and snow that have never been recorded before.

But hey, for the Libs there's no such thing as too many lives lost as long as it "owns" the Conservatives.

Lower your expectations

I really hope I am right on this....just seems like everyone is still "burned" from last year and assuming the worst...it is as if we assume 2 weeks of below freezing weather is the norm in Texas...

Hopefully we end up with a relatively normal winter + mild upgrades to the system = minimal chance for severe outages...

ERCOT admits they are incompetent. EOT.

waitwhat? said:

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There are people that are literally drooling at the idea of blackouts in Texas this winter.

There won't be any. Just like in 29 out of the last 30 years, the grid will be fine.

I'm so sorry some of you are disappointed by that.

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It's mainly libs hoping they get something to use politically against Abbott in the upcoming election.

Maybe they're hoping their hero AOC can come down here and politcize a GoFundMe for Beto. What a bunch of losers.

planoaggie123 said:

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I really hope I am right on this....just seems like everyone is still "burned" from last year and assuming the worst...it is as if we assume 2 weeks of below freezing weather is the norm in Texas...

Hopefully we end up with a relatively normal winter + mild upgrades to the system = minimal chance for severe outages...

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Overall, I agree. I think expecting that our grid could have handled the extreme event last year is a big ask. That doesn't mean we don't need to make changes or that things couldn't have been handled better, but, infrastructure isn't built for the most unlikely events... if it were, we'd pay more $. I expect a return to the norm. Last winter was pretty mild up until that event if my memory serves correctly. Of course, it is now remembered as the worst winter ever!

The grid can handle another event like February's with a better rolling blackout process. The rolling blackouts are specifically meant to get us through the extremes of our climate.

The problem is the system was set up in the 70s or so when they had no option but to turn off whole sections of the grid at a time. In February that resulted in some people being turned off for days while others were never shut off, because too much was shut down at once to be able to easily turn on other sections of the grid.

In 2021 there is no reason that homes and businesses can't be turned off remotely and independently. Rather than turning off an entire neighborhood they can (and should) turn off every 5th house/business for 30 minutes or so and then rotate. Then even homes right next to critical infrastructure like fire stations and hospitals still get turned off.

I can't imagine how that upgrade would cost more than a few tens of millions of dollars at worst and it would be much more economical than "winterizing" the entire grid over an event that probably won't happen again in our lifetimes.

This is by design.

We all knew this was coming.

Governor should inform them that for every day their is widespread power unavailability, each producer, regardless of whether they are providing power or not, will be fined $1 billion/day

They are contracted to supply power. If they cannot, they will be fined.

C@LAg said:

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Governor should inform them that for every day their is widespread power unavailability, each producer, regardless of whether they are providing power or not, will be fined $1 billion/day

They are contracted to supply power. If they cannot, they will be fined.

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Then costs go up or companies go bankrupt?

Texas should pass a law allowing the more rapid use of exemptions to EPA restrictions. Then force the long term benefits of clean coal, gas and nuclear power generation.

Oh God...

Just saw the tweets were from Dessler. He's a climate prof at A&M that is a true believer. Worked in the Clinton Admin...

Kbtx and shel winkly have been pushing this stupid **** all year. What did they think was going to happen when you close down coal plants and rely on wind and solar?

Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

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terrorist target
nuclear waste disposal
hippies chaining themselves to your fences
three-eyed fish downstream

PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

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Not from a technical standpoint - especially with the new generations of Nuclear plants they COULD build.

However, it's the POLITICAL arena where there's a downside.

Just like the left has chained themselves to wind and solar, they have chained themselves AGAINST nuclear (although some are starting to waver).

waitwhat? said:

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The grid can handle another event like February's with a better rolling blackout process. The rolling blackouts are specifically meant to get us through the extremes of our climate.

The problem is the system was set up in the 70s or so when they had no option but to turn off whole sections of the grid at a time. In February that resulted in some people being turned off for days while others were never shut off, because too much was shut down at once to be able to easily turn on other sections of the grid.

In 2021 there is no reason that homes and businesses can't be turned off remotely and independently. Rather than turning off an entire neighborhood they can (and should) turn off every 5th house/business for 30 minutes or so and then rotate. Then even homes right next to critical infrastructure like fire stations and hospitals still get turned off.

I can't imagine how that upgrade would cost more than a few tens of millions of dollars at worst and it would be much more economical than "winterizing" the entire grid over an event that probably won't happen again in our lifetimes.

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I'm not sure how granular the grid can get, but this is exactly what happened during this last event. There were homes on our street that were never impacted while other homes on same street and even next door neighbors to one another who had no power for days. We had no power for 3 days while neighbors were fine.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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Until we see nuclear cooling stacks going up instead of windmills - the grid will remain susceptible / at risk.

This is bigger than ERCOT. We get what we incentivize and the incentives are rotten so the results are rotten. It's like watering a tree with Brawndo and then being surprised when it struggles.

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We also need transmission to shuffle all that renewable energy where it needs to do. You can plop wind turbines all over, but if your wires can't handle the juice loads and you have congestion, then it becomes meaningless, even WHEN the wind is blowing.

We all keep fire extinguishers ready when there's little chance of a fire. Smart people plan their families for unforseen events. There's certainly been enough warnings that our power grid situation has flaws.

Ag with kids said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

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Not from a technical standpoint - especially with the new generations of Nuclear plants they COULD build.

However, it's the POLITICAL arena where there's a downside.

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Seems to be a correlation between the political area and downsides. ie. with medical care, education, energy, transportation, judicial system and probably some others

Didn't we have a number of fossil fuel powered plants offline for maintenance during the big freeze? How about we just have a few of those ready for duty through February?

Ag with kids said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

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Not from a technical standpoint - especially with the new generations of Nuclear plants they COULD build.

However, it's the POLITICAL arena where there's a downside.

Just like the left has chained themselves to wind and solar, they have chained themselves AGAINST nuclear (although some are starting to waver).

---

Nuclear does have economic downsides. Huge capital investment in a market that is oversaturated with power 80% of the time. Further regulatory exposure makes the returns more risky. Also once you add considerable amounts of nuclear or CCG that would just push other generation offline and we will be in the same spot.

texagbeliever said:

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Ag with kids said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

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Not from a technical standpoint - especially with the new generations of Nuclear plants they COULD build.

However, it's the POLITICAL arena where there's a downside.

Just like the left has chained themselves to wind and solar, they have chained themselves AGAINST nuclear (although some are starting to waver).

---

Nuclear does have economic downsides. Huge capital investment in a market that is oversaturated with power 80% of the time. Further regulatory exposure makes the returns more risky. Also once you add considerable amounts of nuclear or CCG that would just push other generation offline and we will be in the same spot.

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A lot of the economic expense is due to the politics...you mentioned regulations - that's one.

Then all the work to get it through the approval process - that's two.

Then, the legal challenges - that's three.

And ALL of those are political, not technical.

It's up to the transmission companies (Oncor, CoServ, etc.) to decide how to handle load shedding and maybe your area is set up better for it. But I mean at a statewide level I don't see any reason it can't or shouldn't be done.

It could even be subsidized by allowing transmission companies to offer discounts to homes/businesses with generators that agree to be shut off first, when needed.

Rick Burns said:

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We all keep fire extinguishers ready when there's little chance of a fire. Smart people plan their families for unforseen events. There's certainly been enough warnings that our power grid situation has flaws.

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If we used more coal and gas maybe there wouldn't be a problem???

The biggest issue my neighborhood had with Pedernales Electric Coop in February, is that whatever mechanism is used to engage/switch the rolling blackouts had not been tested or exercised in so long--that equipment/switches failed, burned up or exploded and knocked EVERYONE out for extended periods. This was exacerbated by the fact that they may or may not have had the hardware to quickly make repairs; and that they (reasonably) didn't want to endanger crews with the road/weather conditions.

My feeling is that the rolling blackout "system" should be exercised a couple of times each year to find these kinds of problems. Spring or Fall are probably the best seasons for it. I'm guessing that idea makes too much sense-- therefore, there is no way it will ever happen.

waitwhat? said:

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There are people that are literally drooling at the idea of blackouts in Texas this winter.

There won't be any. Just like in 29 out of the last 30 years, the grid will be fine.

I'm so sorry some of you are disappointed by that.

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But if there is a blackout, the subsidized wind and solar will be the reason.

Not thermal

Ag with kids said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Ag with kids said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

---

Not from a technical standpoint - especially with the new generations of Nuclear plants they COULD build.

However, it's the POLITICAL arena where there's a downside.

Just like the left has chained themselves to wind and solar, they have chained themselves AGAINST nuclear (although some are starting to waver).

---

Nuclear does have economic downsides. Huge capital investment in a market that is oversaturated with power 80% of the time. Further regulatory exposure makes the returns more risky. Also once you add considerable amounts of nuclear or CCG that would just push other generation offline and we will be in the same spot.

---

A lot of the economic expense is due to the politics...you mentioned regulations - that's one.

Then all the work to get it through the approval process - that's two.

Then, the legal challenges - that's three.

And ALL of those are political, not technical.

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Well long term handling of depleted Uranium is a bit of both technical and political.

My wife is an engineer for NRG. NRG is mandating vaccines and around half of their filed workers are saying "no." I am afraid that could be true for other energy suppliers, and could exacerbate any potential blackouts.

texagbeliever said:

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Ag with kids said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Ag with kids said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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Are there any downsides to going nuclear other than muh Chernobyl and ***ushima?

---

Not from a technical standpoint - especially with the new generations of Nuclear plants they COULD build.

However, it's the POLITICAL arena where there's a downside.

Just like the left has chained themselves to wind and solar, they have chained themselves AGAINST nuclear (although some are starting to waver).

---

Nuclear does have economic downsides. Huge capital investment in a market that is oversaturated with power 80% of the time. Further regulatory exposure makes the returns more risky. Also once you add considerable amounts of nuclear or CCG that would just push other generation offline and we will be in the same spot.

---

A lot of the economic expense is due to the politics...you mentioned regulations - that's one.

Then all the work to get it through the approval process - that's two.

Then, the legal challenges - that's three.

And ALL of those are political, not technical.

---

Well long term handling of depleted Uranium is a bit of both technical and political.

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New nuclear tech doesn't have NEAR the issues of nuclear waste that the current generation of plants do. And if POTUS Carter hadn't banned reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel, we wouldn't even have as much of the current spent fuel we have today.

Basically, all the issues with nuclear can be traced back to politics...

The power grid is unreliable! So we need more unreliable power to the grid!!