Robk said:

---

ATX_AG_08 said:

---

⚡️Russian occupiers plan paid rally in temporarily occupied Melitopol for March 26, according to the Zaporizhzhia Military Administration.

Residents have reportedly been promised 1,200 rubles for participation.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 26, 2022

---

Like everything else in this war, I do not think this is going to go russia's way.

---

Okay but how many Stanley nickels

Putin's latest speech claims all ethnic groups have lived in harmony in Russia for centuries and the kind of violent discrimination seen elsewhere in European history has never, and could never, have happened in the Motherland. Hm. Must check the derivation of the word "pogrom."

— David Baddiel (@Baddiel) March 25, 2022

People ask why Estonian, Latvians Lithuanians and Poles are at the lead helping Ukrainians.

We get it. We’ve been there.

While for decades smug, patronizing Western Europeans dismissed us.

We are no longer poor, more often than not we’re better educated than they are 1/n https://t.co/UabfdXWxJy

— toomas hendrik ilves (@IlvesToomas) March 26, 2022

The photos in @ronaldliive’s thread show why. That is the “post Soviet traumatic stress” by which Finnish Pres. Halonen dismissed and scoffed at an entire nation.

You see Ukrainians write “never forget, never forgive”.

They won’t. We don’t.

That’s why we help Ukrainians. Fin

— toomas hendrik ilves (@IlvesToomas) March 26, 2022

My fresh piece is published by @guardianopinion. My main aim was to say: fulfilling RU demands, will only provoke and ease further aggression. The only scenario that is not discussed is the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. https://t.co/njSXvzlNMf

— Maria Zolkina (@Mariia_Zolkina) March 26, 2022

BusterAg said:

---

People keep forgetting that everyone thought that this was a bluff until the last minute, even Ukraine was surprised.

---

The damned Russians could not have telegraphed their intentions any more loudly than they did. The only way this wasn't happening was if a preemptive capitulation by the Ukrainians had occurred. I believe many governments saw it this way.

My $.02 vis--vis the Ukrainian lack of preparation is that they did as little as they thought they could get away with without provoking an earlier response the Bolsheviks- but they knew, too.

lb3 said:

---

12th Man said:

---

I can't quite see it your way, but I understand it.

In hindsight, I think the best move would've been to be in Ukraine in force before the invasion could've started. I don't think the Russians would've invaded had there been 5000 or so American military there embedded with the Ukrainians. If these sanctions outrage the Russians instead of deterring them, we may end up with far more people in harms way than what we could've gotten away with in January. This is just a guess, though.

Nobody knows, and I hope you're right.

---

Stationing our troops in the west wouldn't have prevented the Russians from entering Donbas and if we stationed troops in the east, Russia would have just sent his little green men to turn up the heat on the existing civil war.

Trump threatened Moscow if Putin entered Ukraine. Those credible threats would have prevented things from ever starting. Instead our president talked about varied economic responses if there was a minor excursion.

---

This administration failed in both preparation and response. I'm not talking about the Donbas and/or Crimea- I'm talking status quo ante bellum.

I DO think positioning appreciable numbers of Americans in unoccupied Ukraine would've given pause to Russian planners -especially had we deployed aviation and anti-air assets. Now, you could dress Putin in a leather teddy and he'd still have more balls than Lyndon Johnson ever did, but I'm not talking about the relatively small number of Soviet/Chinese advisors that deterred LBJ from un-muzzling our Naval & Air Force action over North Vietnam; I mean 5k combat troops embedded to "train up the Ukrainians". My $.02 is that that would've been an effective deterrent.

It also would've been a far more lucrative plan to NOT green-light the damned Russians as Anvil Joe did when he stammered out that we would not go in to protect Ukraine. Stoopid.

All this discussion is better reserved for the post mortem hot wash, and I apologize for the derail. Aw hell, maybe we're just giving hope that there will still be something for us to all talk about in the Ukraine/Russia off-season

12th Man said:

---

BusterAg said:

---

People keep forgetting that everyone thought that this was a bluff until the last minute, even Ukraine was surprised.

---

The damned Russians could not have telegraphed their intentions any more loudly than they did. The only way this wasn't happening was if a preemptive capitulation by the Ukrainians had occurred. I believe many governments saw it this way.

My $.02 vis--vis the Ukrainian lack of preparation is that they did as little as they thought they could get away with without provoking an earlier response the Bolsheviks- but they knew, too.

---

That's all Monday morning QBing.

I think it is an untenable position to say that we all should have known that Putin was going to invade. Lots of people thought he was too smart to try something so stupid.

These links will demonstrate that, while there was definitely a lot of worry and questions about whether he would or not, most people thought it was sabre rattling.


https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-putin-wont-invade-ukraine/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468264

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/9/no-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2021/12/06/quick-take-why-putin-wont-invade-ukraine/?sh=57f7ae0a2927

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-11-23/putin-spokesman-russia-wont-invade-ukraine-unless-its-provoked

https://www.vox.com/2022/2/21/22944995/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-troops-ukraine-east-donbas

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/12/putin-does-not-need-invade-ukraine-get-his-way

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/russia-tells-u-s-no-ukraine-invasion-planned-tass-says

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/27/how-russia-decides-when-to-invade/

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/02/19/whether-he-invades-ukraine-or-backs-down-putin-has-harmed-russia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/blinken-dares-putin-to-tell-the-world-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine-20220218-p59xim.html

https://www.understandingwar.org/report/putins-likely-courses-action-ukraine-part-2

That's a lot of journalistic wishful thinking. I think Gell-Mann applies here, especially considering the current administrations position that nothing would have stopped putin from invading.

Oh... so you're not "Monday morning quarterbacking", here? Gotcha.

Yes, nobody ever knows what's going to happen, but we have precedent, personalities and patterns to which we can look for clues. Neither you nor I will likely ever know which countries foresaw the invasion as imminent, but it's entirely correct that the Russians could not have telegraphed their intentions any more clearly.

https://t.co/WhMGeTeqhc

— Howard Steele (@HowardSteele5) March 26, 2022

BREAKING: Russia is accusing Azerbaijan of violating a ceasefire deal in the disputed region of Karabakh.

Russia claims Azerbaijan carried out four drone strikes on military units in the area.

More to follow at https://t.co/8g7t93TZKU pic.twitter.com/7Zg4hYGuSa

— DW News (@dwnews) March 26, 2022

Rossticus said:

---

https://t.co/WhMGeTeqhc

— Howard Steele (@HowardSteele5) March 26, 2022

---

The Soviet occupation of ELL was brutal.

That's exceptional.

Reason #763 why Putin doesn't want to FAAFO.

Allied integration in air over Bardufoss yesterday🇺🇸🇳🇴 The B-52 strategic bombers have participated in several missions with Norwegian and allied forces during the large winter exercise Cold Response 2022. Here with Norwegian F-35s. pic.twitter.com/Qh4fH1xIR7

— Royal Norwegian Air Force (@Luftforsvaret) March 26, 2022

Yeah they are massive. It's hard to really describe or grasp even from pics lol The wingspan is 185f/56m, so basically half a football field including endzones pic.twitter.com/ugmMAilKP2

— Grammar Dominatrix (@GrammarDomin8rx) March 26, 2022

This is important https://t.co/iorlRqxp5d

— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) March 26, 2022

Japan is increasing efforts to check Russian activity towards Japan’s security, in addition to checking China and North Korean actions and provocationsロシア脅威が再浮上　中国、北朝鮮との３正面の備え https://t.co/YIn0dWMqtI via @Sankei_news

— Thomas P. (Tom) Logan🇺🇸🇯🇵 (@TokyoTom2020) March 26, 2022

Oh my. By unanimous vote, the Russian Orthodox Parish of St. Nicholas of Myra in Amsterdam has decided to ditch the Moscow Patriarchate and join the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople. Moscow had threatened this parish for its antiwar position. https://t.co/Icf3DBwH7O pic.twitter.com/bL5EQU6sfb

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 26, 2022

The Pianist vibes.

Kharkiv, #Ukraine. Spring 2022. This video gives me goosebumps. The man is playing “My dear mother”, a song that every Ukrainian knows very well. pic.twitter.com/6iCoo5L7bF

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) March 25, 2022

In relation to the post above

BREAKING:

The Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan has called on Russia to withdraw the remnants of the Armenian army from the territory of Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee calls on Azerbaijan to stop attacking Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. pic.twitter.com/OtpMgJWLxj

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 26, 2022

"Quit smoking. Otherwise you die and will not witness Putin's death" - a very clever anti-tobacco warning in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/NgN8uJWVNG

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) March 26, 2022

Putin is damaged goods, he has blundered and exposed his country.

How will they suicidal him?

My guess is thrown out of a door of a helo.

When your High Command remains confident over victory of upstart rebels. pic.twitter.com/YFNvCwgyEb

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) March 27, 2022

Vurt der ferk?

No comments pic.twitter.com/9dqYRgB3uF

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) March 26, 2022

Thus new types of Russian weaponry, for example, the Armata tank were never mass produced. Mass production was supposed to commence in 2015 but in 2022 it still didn't, because of the sanctions. Electronic components import, transmissions import, everything sopped after Crimean pic.twitter.com/WzGchw2D7o

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 26, 2022

Forget whatever bullshit online Ukraine discourse is in your feed and watch these Mariupol refugees describe, in their own words and through tears, how they fled hell on Earth and what it took to get out. https://t.co/aw50dcgscQ

— Antonio García Martínez (agm.eth) 🇺🇦 (@antoniogm) March 27, 2022

It's all so senseless.https://t.co/1us5u6sFYL

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 27, 2022

Their "advanced" stuff is just smoke and mirrors. Next gen tank, but they can't produce it. Su-57? They have four.

"I hate them all," the mother of a dead Russian soldier says of Ukrainians. "I have no pity even for the civilians." The war was necessary—"we had no choice"—because "if we didn't bomb them, they would've bombed us." "My son fought for us, for Russia...he didn't die in vain."

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 27, 2022

‼️ #Finland has closed railway border crossings between #Russia and Finland and stopped land freight traffic between the countries. pic.twitter.com/7y1OKeGd4g

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 27, 2022

To everyone who wants to know what would have happened if the invasion had happened and Trump was president, here is the answer: He would have given in immediately. There would be no Nato support, no arms, no sanctions, no united transatlantic alliance, no nothing. https://t.co/S4TbdgvEjB

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) March 27, 2022

Hillary's Russian campaign hoax is still going strong.