CanyonAg77 said:

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What is a Wagner or PMC?

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Wagner a Russian PMC (private military company)

GarryowenAg said:

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wildmen09 said:

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45-70Ag said:

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It is reported that the head of the #Kemerovo SOBR unit, Konstantin Ogiy, who had previously fought in #Afghanistan and #Chechnya, died in #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/KdbcbKMxQv

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

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Forgive me, who is this?

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Haven't seen if this was answered, so I looked him up. He was a Colonel who commanded the Special Rapid Reaction Unit (SOBR) of the National Guard of the Kemerovo region. He died during a special op along with 42 of his commandos.

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That seems like a fairly significant loss

aginresearch said:

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China will drop Russia as their BFF real soon. Chinese financial institutions today have already started falling in line with their western counterparts. They know the jig is up and Russia is a bad investment.

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If China construction bank falls in line, then they have my guarded attention. What they say vs what the do is night and day. They are positioned to make Russia a debtor to them. Rather strong position of you need drivel energy are raw materials. Just in case the Malaca straight gets spicy.

74OA said:

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aggie93 said:

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RONA Ag said:

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74OA said:

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aginresearch said:

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Russia's financial system is collapsing. They will not be able to weather that for very long. The average Russian will not be feed themselves in the near future and that may trigger regime change in the Kremlin.

Putin has made Russia a pariah state in just a few weeks. Europe will not trust Russia for at least a generation after this event.

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The fact that Putin had built up a $600 billion war chest in anticipation of more sanctions means he believed he had already seen everything we could throw at him and had calculated how much it would take to prevail.

He.was.wrong.

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This, we need to sanction and cutoff all the oligarchs from their money now. At this point backing out of Ukrainian territory is not enough, only the handing over or removal of putin should these financial measures be removed

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The reality is Europe is dependent on Russia for energy and Biden decided to make the US go from exporter to importer so we can't help. TRussia can hold out a lot longer than the Europeans can and they were prepared, Europe is not.

Here is a breakdown by Zeihan that explains just a few of the things that Russia supplies.

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The US is the #2 exporter of LNG in the world. By the end of this year it will be the #1 exporter. A lot of it is already going to bail Europe out with more to come.

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The US is no where near prepared, nor is Europe, to replace the NG they get from Russia. Hell Biden has been doing all he can to set us back in making the US into the LNG Superpower and LNG is still not technologically there to be as effective as pipelines (which they can get from Russia). You are talking about long term and maybe, you can't just make that infrastructure appear and Biden is obsessed far more with Climate Change than having any understanding of energy, especially fossil fuels. The only short term hope Europe has is to turn back on their nuclear plants and maybe coal if Russia turns off the spigot but that will hurt them a LOT more than it will hurt Russia.

Russia has been preparing for this. Putin is very popular at home and has a death grip on power. They are much better at handling scarcity and hard times than Europeans as well. Maybe Biden will reverse course and go with Drill Baby Drill and stop doing everything he could to stop O&G production in the US but I don't see it. He still thinks places like Europe can use solar when they have little sunshine and wind power when they have little wind to solve all their problems.

In the end countries in Europe need energy and they need food more than Russia needs money and Russia still has China firmly in its corner.

nortex97 said:

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How very bold of them, right after the olympics just ended.

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It should apply to the track and field World Championships later this year. I'm sure there are some other international it would apply to as well.

China essentially paid Rusia to invade. The deal was they would get 30% of all the energy that came out of Ukraine for supplying 80 percent of the equipment.

When will the world hold them accountable?

Slava Ukraini

aginresearch said:

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Russia cannot hold out anymore. They've been cutoff from their cash reserves and the western banking system. For sure Europe has a gas supply problem now but Russia is toast financially.

Not sure how this will all play out but Russia is in no position to make demands anymore.

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Russia is very much able to make demands, they control Europe by the balls with energy and to a lesser extent food (which they can make far more expensive). They also have China on their side along with others and they have a population that has a lot more experience dealing with scarcity than Europe or the US. Russia has been preparing for all of this for a long time as well.

Don't get me wrong, I want Russia to lose but you have to understand what you are dealing with.

nortex97 said:

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How very bold of them, right after the olympics just ended.

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Russia hadn't invaded then. This would ban Russian athletes from qualifying events, so in the next Olympics, the "ROC" wouldn't be a thing because Russian athletes wouldn't be able to qualify in the first place.

OldArmyBrent said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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IOC is apparently calling for a ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes in ALL competitive sports.


https://www.si.com/olympics/2022/02/28/ioc-recommends-international-competition-ban-russia-belarus

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Lol. So they'll allow a new fake country like they did for the doping issue?

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No. That was a ban from officially competing for Russia and essentially competing as, "independents." I think this is an outright ban from even competing for qualifying if they're a Russian citizen. No qualifying, no, "ROC."

So with the ruble now being worth less than a penny US, what does that essentially mean when a currency collapses?

aggiehawg said:

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So with the ruble now being worth less than a penny US, what does that essentially mean when a currency collapses?

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It means you need a lot of rubles to buy a lap dance.

Evidence of cluster munitions being used in #Kharkov #Kharkiv #Ukraine by Russia pic.twitter.com/sYJq87Hpt6

— ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ (@DesiPepe) February 28, 2022

Winter is at an end in Europe and demand for gas will drop. Once Russian gas pipelines are shutdown Europe will face a constrained supply but with price increases will be able to manage for the next few months.

In the meantime the United States is shipping way more LNG to Europe which will help offset the loss of Russian gas to a substantial degree.

China is a non-factor here.

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#Ukraine These people in Kharkiv carried home food and water. They were shot by the Russian occupiers 😢 Pray for Ukraine! 🇺🇦 #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #BanRussiafromSwift #HelpUkraine #Kharkiv #FKputin #PutinHitler #PutinWarCriminal pic.twitter.com/s1BZreQ4sX

— Ukraine And Russian War Updates (@Worldaffairs0) February 28, 2022

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WANRING GRAPHIC - Civilian deaths in Kharkiv

Just saying it could be worse if they "tried" to help more.

⚡️⚡️⚡️Zelensky signed an application for #Ukraine's membership in the #European Union. pic.twitter.com/imVodbdaKv

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

Yeah, I know. Their insolence knows no bounds.... but, of course, he's just the puppet.

TChaney said:

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⚡️⚡️⚡️Zelensky signed an application for #Ukraine's membership in the #European Union. pic.twitter.com/imVodbdaKv

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

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Application for EU membership

European Commission - Enlargement - Application for EU membership
The Treaty on European Union (Article 49) lays down the conditions a candidate country must meet to become a member state: any European state which respects the common values of the Member States and undertake to promote them may apply to become a member of the Union. These values include human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities (Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union).
The application is submitted to the Council, while the European Parliament and national Parliaments are notified (see also Accession to the EUSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN).
Candidate countries

European Commission - Enlargement - Candidate countries
An applicant country for European Union membershipSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN* may be granted candidate country status by the European Council on the basis of a recommendation by the European Commission.
Candidate country status does not give a right to join the Union automatically. The Commission examines the application in light of the accession criteria (Copenhagen criteria)Search for available translations of the preceding linkEN* and draws up an opinion, while the European Council decides to open accession negotiationsSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN* with the candidate country.


https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-policy/glossary/application-eu-membership_en

At the opening of the London Stock Exchange, the prices of Russian stocks collapsed:
Sberbank -77%
Novatek -75,9%
Gazprom -60%
Rosneft -45,5%.
They had better leave international markets. Russian stock trade seems to be over. This is worse than 1998.https://t.co/IHo4xZxX2r

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) February 28, 2022

aginresearch said:

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Winter is at an end in Europe and demand for gas will drop. Once Russian gas pipelines are shutdown Europe will face a constrained supply but with price increases will be able to manage for the next few months.

In the meantime the United States is shipping way more LNG to Europe which will help offset the loss of Russian gas to a substantial degree.

China is a non-factor here.

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That's certainly the optimistic way of looking at things but the US isn't remotely prepared to supply enough LNG to make up the shortfall from cutting off Russia. Eventually it could be but Biden actually sent us backwards on that the last year with greenlighting Nordstream and cracking down on US O&G production because he is a complete moron. You can't just turn that stuff on like a light switch and the technology and infrastructure needed is a long way from being there in terms of the US supplying Europe with the amount of Gas it needs.

China is absolutely a factor here because Russia can trade with China and they need the O&G from Russia. If Russia can still sell its goods and conduct commerce then the sanctions won't work. Europe and the US aren't ready to cut off from China.

Russia and China are going to play hardball and they have been preparing for this. As I said I want them to lose but we need to recognize the threat and how to fight it.

Just seen long Russian troops convoy South of Belgorod moving away from the Kharkiv frontline area. Maybe Russian military rotating forces? #CNN #Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/OtQcTra05L

— Frederik Pleitgen (@fpleitgenCNN) February 28, 2022

I wonder if these troops are getting out of the way for some more bombing runs.

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Bank of China's Singapore operation has stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies, amid concerns of western sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said a source on Monday (Feb 28) with knowledge of the matter.

Bank of China did not immediately reply to requests for comment. …

At least two of China's largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities, underscoring the limits of Beijing's pledge to maintain economic ties with one of its most important strategic partners in the face of Western sanctions.

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Sanctions are designed to "create new problems," mainly for the target of such sanctions. Lest we forget, Putin and Russia created a lot of "new problems," not to mention gross violations of international law and untold deaths of Ukrainians, by launching an unprovoked war. The West tried diplomacy and "the political settlement process," only to be ignored by Putin and by Beijing despite multiple entreaties for their intervention.

And with his economy in free-fall, this is one outcome that Putin cannot afford. The ruble is now damn near worthless in the short term, and his access to hard currencies has been severely limited if not entirely eclipsed. The only reliable and substantial income Russia still has comes from sales of oil and natural gas, but they need lines of credit to move those commodities more than ever. They don't have enough cash up front, and they're presently contracting their monetary supply with high interest rates to check inflation.

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Via Hot Air

The delegates arrived at the negotiating venue by helicopter. pic.twitter.com/jumBclmFwf

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

(Ignore the emoji - it was for a different post)

PJYoung said:

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At the opening of the London Stock Exchange, the prices of Russian stocks collapsed:
Sberbank -77%
Novatek -75,9%
Gazprom -60%
Rosneft -45,5%.
They had better leave international markets. Russian stock trade seems to be over. This is worse than 1998.https://t.co/IHo4xZxX2r

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) February 28, 2022

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Guessing Putin sold short and is now worth a trillion dollars.

Kharkiv, #Ukraine — A Russian rocket almost hit a civilian car.#UkraineUnderAttack #Ukraina #Russian #Putin #Ukriane #RussiaUkraineConflict pic.twitter.com/eDkm7xEAe5

— Natiq Malikzada (@natiqmalikzada) February 28, 2022

Seems like a trap. Or have I seen too many James Bond movies?

Large explosion reported in Kyiv

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 28, 2022

BattleGrackle said:

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Seems like a trap. Or have I seen too many James Bond movies?

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Capturing/killing a peace negotiation would be unprecedented and would basically guarantee that this would significantly escalate

TChaney said:

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The delegates arrived at the negotiating venue by helicopter. pic.twitter.com/jumBclmFwf

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

(Ignore the emoji - it was for a different post)

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I bet that was a fun helicopter ride, given Lukashenko's personal guarantee of safety.

Impressive he just flipped wippers on and kept driving.

LIVE FEEDS - I'll add more as I find them

Does Putin maybe have a different game here, other than total conquest of Ukraine? Maybe he realizes that isn't possible, so he is trying to take as much as he can in a limited amount of time. From there he can negotiate what he really wants, like a recognition of an independent Russian-speaking region in eastern Ukraine.