javajaws said:

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Rossticus said:

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javajaws said:

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Rossticus said:

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javajaws said:

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Rossticus said:

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javajaws said:

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Rossticus said:

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Just listened to a Ukrainian rip into Biden's sanctions as essentially useless. Punitive but will have no impact on the extant situation. Of course, we know this.

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Ukraine is not without blame in this situation. They knew full well the friction it would cause with Russia when they try to cozy up to NATO. They are also to blame for not getting rid of their corruption problems and fixing their economy and military. They had it in their own power to stand on their own and make themselves defensible (as much as possible given their unenviable location).

Really, no one will cry much if Putin goes in and puts a new government in place. Not saying they deserve it...but THEY could have prevented it if they weren't such a s**t show of a country.

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Massive progress has been made toward reforms in recent years which they've been working extraordinarily hard on once they ousted the pro-Russian government. They've been doing exactly what you've said they should. The US and other EU countries have been directly involved in that. And they're a sovereign nation. Trying to insulate themselves from Russian influence is a good thing. Not something to use a criticism. "It's their fault for allying closer to our allies than Russia!".

Hack. Try again.

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Like it or not, part of their withdrawal from the Soviet union was to remain neutral. Getting more involved with the US and EU scares the crap out of Putin.

If they wanted to get into NATO, they should have been the first of the Soviet countries to do so, not the last.

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Oh, well since that's all they needed to do. If I'd known it was that easy…

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If you point a gun at a bear often enough either one of two things will happen: 1) The bear will get used to it and ignore you, or 2) He will maul the crap out of you!

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Now imagine there's a fence around you and the bear and it makes the bear angry when you try to get out. You'll get eaten for sure if you stay in the fence but might also get eaten if you try to escape. At least escape gives you a fighting chance.

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Not when Biden takes his son to the zoo and throws honey on you!

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JUST IN - Website of Russia's VEB Bank is offline following Biden's remarks that the financial institution is part of the U.S. sanctions package. pic.twitter.com/53ICDIYWSR

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) February 22, 2022

Honestly, in thinking about this, imagine if the US hadn't been so far removed from Britain geographically. Only thing that gave us a fighting chance. That and the fact that the rest of Europe hated the British and supported us financially and materially.

In #Volnovakha, Donetsk rgn about 30,000 people cut from water supply as a result of attacks by Russians, - Ukraine's ombudswoman Denisova https://t.co/F8n96zyl6c

— English Lugansk (@loogunda) February 22, 2022

?

flakrat said:

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!

Scroll to 3PM update at bottom of article re new sanctions. FORCE

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba (who is in town for meetings with Secs. Austin and Blinken) has met with President Biden. "President Biden reiterated the readiness of the United States... to respond swiftly and decisively to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/akhEL9Z7UK

— Vivian Salama (@vmsalama) February 22, 2022

74OA said:

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Scroll to 3PM update at bottom of article re new sanctions. FORCE

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Ah, yes:

Quote:

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Russia's parliament has approved the use of military force in Ukraine, an authorization that President Vladimir Putin could potentially be used to launch a larger military intervention into that country.

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Ukrainian media says Zelensky has signed a decree ordering reservists into mobilization.

— Doge (@IntelDoge) February 22, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are interesting locations for re-deployment. Non-escalatory inter-theater movement to get forces closer to Poland just in case things get weird? Those countries don't seem to be at particular risk.

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Not from this deployment by Russia, but long term necessary.

flakrat said:

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74OA said:

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Scroll to 3PM update at bottom of article re new sanctions. FORCE

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Ah, yes:

Quote:

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Russia's parliament has approved the use of military force in Ukraine, an authorization that President Vladimir Putin could potentially be used to launch a larger military intervention into that country.

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Vlad must be so relieved the Duma gave him its approval.

When do we see Biden's experience of going "toe to toe" with Putin come in to play? He must have something masterful about to be played......

deddog said:

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javajaws said:

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Rossticus said:

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Just listened to a Ukrainian rip into Biden's sanctions as essentially useless. Punitive but will have no impact on the extant situation. Of course, we know this.

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Ukraine is not without blame in this situation. They knew full well the friction it would cause with Russia when they try to cozy up to NATO. They are also to blame for not getting rid of their corruption problems and fixing their economy and military. They had it in their own power to stand on their own and make themselves defensible (as much as possible given their unenviable location).

Really, no one will cry much if Putin goes in and puts a new government in place. Not saying they deserve it...but THEY could have prevented it if they weren't such a s**t show of a country.

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Tell you what.

If you ever want a shining example of why you shouldn't give up nuclear weapons, Ukraine is a great example.
It's why NKorea and Iran will never do so.

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Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program, and Gaddafi was beheaded.
Iraq didn't go nuclear, and Saddam was hung.
I'd say those are more pertinent examples to states like Iran and N. Korea than Ukraine now. And they'd be right - the surest guaranty of a despot's safety from outside attack is by going nuclear.

Also Ukraine was never going to be allowed to keep the Russian nukes anymore than Belarus or Kazakhstan were. The Russians had operational control over them in that they retained the codes, not Ukraine, so they weren't a deterrent that the country could fully leverage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

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. . .
As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Until then, Ukraine had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile, of which Ukraine had physical, but not operational, control. Russia alone controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons via Russian-controlled electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

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. . .
The United States would also not have made Ukraine an exception when it came to the denuclearization of other post-Soviet states such as Belarus and Kazakhstan. The deterrent value of the nuclear weapons in Ukraine was also questionable, as Ukraine would have had to spend 12 to 18 months to establish full operational control over the nuclear arsenal left by the Russians. . . . The air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) left by the Russians had been disabled by the Russians during the collapse of the Soviet Union, but even if they had been reconfigured and made to work by the Ukrainians, it is unlikely that they would have had a deterrent effect. . . . Had Ukraine decided to establish full operational control of the nuclear weapons, it would have faced sanctions by the West and perhaps even a withdrawal of diplomatic recognition by the United States and other NATO allies. Ukraine would also likely have faced retaliatory action by Russia. Ukraine would also have struggled with replacing the nuclear weapons once their service life expired, as Ukraine did not have a nuclear weapons program. In exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensation, as well as the security assurances of the Budapest Memorandum.
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The security assurances turned out to be worthless since the most potent one was a promise to seek UN Security Council action, but the countries got money for Russian nukes they weren't going to be allowed to keep, and that weren't functional at the time.

Salute CornPops Message said:

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When do we see Biden's experience of going "toe to toe" with Putin come in to play? He must have something masterful about to be played......

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He's gonna send in some humanitarian flights to supply the Ukrainian troops with Ice Cream.

aezmvp said:

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Rossticus said:

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Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are interesting locations for re-deployment. Non-escalatory inter-theater movement to get forces closer to Poland just in case things get weird? Those countries don't seem to be at particular risk.

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Not from this deployment by Russia, but long term necessary.

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Yep, if Ukraine falls, it puts Russian forces on the doorstep of Poland and much of eastern Europe.

"When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

EXACTLY

Couldn't help myself. Trolled Medvedev on Twitter. Anxiously awaiting flood of angry Russian responses.

In response to @JeffSchogol question Stoltenberg says NATO Response Force has not been deployed, still on high alert

— Tara Copp (@TaraCopp) February 22, 2022

r/Russia has been fun.

Dude, you are batting 0 today.

Saddam didn't get hung because "he didn't go nuclear". He got invaded and hung BECAUSE everybody thought he was pursuing nukes. And then Ghaddafi saw that and gave up his nuke program to avoid getting hung himself.

Basically 180 degrees off from what you said

Soooo…who wants to be the one to tell him?

⚡️Biden: "Who in the Lord’s name is allowing Putin to declare new states?"

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 22, 2022

aezmvp said:

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r/Russia has been fun.

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Oh, God. Lol.

Rossticus said:

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Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are interesting locations for re-deployment. Non-escalatory inter-theater movement to get forces closer to Poland just in case things get weird? Those countries don't seem to be at particular risk.

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It's clearly non-escalatory, meaningless movement just to say we did something else.

But saying the Baltics aren't at particular risk? If any NATO member is at particular risk, it's the Baltic states. They're literally sandwiched between two pieces of Russian soil. Plus they're very weakly defended.

I have some Estonian friends and I can guarantee you they're quite concerned about what's going on in the Ukraine. They had a healthy fear of Russia even before this.

And Putin has an easy pretext to encroach on Baltic sovereignty by claiming that the NATO increase demands a better guarantee of land access to Kaliningrad, such as by creating a broad DMZ along the transit route.

Rossticus said:

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Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba (who is in town for meetings with Secs. Austin and Blinken) has met with President Biden. "President Biden reiterated the readiness of the United States... to respond swiftly and decisively to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/akhEL9Z7UK

— Vivian Salama (@vmsalama) February 22, 2022

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If you remain in a state of "readiness," then you are already too late.

DTP02 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are interesting locations for re-deployment. Non-escalatory inter-theater movement to get forces closer to Poland just in case things get weird? Those countries don't seem to be at particular risk.

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It's clearly non-escalatory, meaningless movement just to say we did something else.

But saying the Baltics aren't at particular risk? If any NATO member is at particular risk, it's the Baltic states. They're literally sandwiched between two pieces of Russian soil. Plus they're very weakly defended.

I have some Estonian friends and I can guarantee you they're quite concerned about what's going on in the Ukraine. They had a healthy fear of Russia even before this.

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That's what I was looking for. Basically whether there was legitimate fear that Putin could try and pull a drive by and cut them off somewhere in all of this.

Yeah. When will all these boobs realize that press statements and stern looking photo ops do not constitute swift and decisive action. Neither do sanctions unless they carry the threat of immediate and highly consequential impact.

aTmAg said:

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Dude, you are batting 0 today.

Saddam didn't get hung because "he didn't go nuclear". He got invaded and hung BECAUSE everybody thought he was pursuing nukes. And then Ghaddafi saw that and gave up his nuke program to avoid getting hung himself.

Basically 180 degrees off from what you said

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If Saddam had nuclear weapons he'd still be in power today.
Same with Gaddafi.

It's the reason Pakistan has any parity with India.

I don't know what to tell you if you think the lesson learned by Iran and N. Korea from those situations is we'd best play by the rules. Gaddafi was bombed by NATO notwithstanding giving up his nuclear weapons program.

This is going to be too little, too late Imo.

Ukrainian media says Zelensky has signed a decree ordering reservists into mobilization.

— Doge (@IntelDoge) February 22, 2022

Putin can use all sorts of excuses of why he's taking what he wants - helping the separatists, pushing back against NATO aggression, etc. But I think these are just fringe benefits - he really just wants resources, industrial capacity, and the strategic access (link with Crimea, etc). It's just a happy coincidence for him that he can get all of those things with minimal blowback from the US/EU.

The bigger question is what does he do next. I do NOT think it involves invading any NATO countries. I think all of his moves are really around energy and making money, so I expect more action around that.

Putting this here for anyone who wants to use it.

A lot of Russian-speaking Ukrainians write on social media that they are switching to Ukrainian as a sign of loyalty and in reaction to Putin's speech. The more Putin tries to convince everyone that Ukrainians do not exist, the more he strengthens Ukrainian national identity

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 22, 2022

Wow! EU sanctions Russian sovereign debt. This adds to German halt of Nord Stream 2. And for good measure EU sanctions 351 Russian “lawmakers” who voted to recognize DNR & LNR https://t.co/NnXQbFxiSH

— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) February 22, 2022