Massive increase in Russian disinformation, escalating rhetoric, accusations of Ukrainian hostility.

Zelensky now telling NATO it's their responsibility to defend Ukraine due to Ukrainian forfeiture of deterrence measures in 1994 predicated on NATO assurance.

There is literally no happy ending to this thing now. Even if war is avoided it results in massive European destabilization and irreparable damage to NATO credibility and effectiveness. And the death of Ukraine as a sovereign nation.

Dan Scott said:

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I think he makes a good point. If you know he'll attack then sanction them. Otherwise you're waiting for people to die. If you don't know they will attack then STFU.

Poor Ukraine caught in the middle of Putin and Natos bullcrap

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To be fair, if it weren't for Ukraine's ability to leverage NATO, Putin would have already killed them from inside. It's an unfortunate situation but it lies at the feet of Putin's ambition. This all originates with him.

Dan Scott said:

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I think he makes a good point. If you know he'll attack then sanction them. Otherwise you're waiting for people to die. If you don't know they will attack then STFU.

Poor Ukraine caught in the middle of Putin and Natos bullcrap

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If you issue sanctions now, then Vlad has nothing to lose by attacking. They may also view the sanctions as escalation.

Ew. Never say "she's on it" with respect to Kamala.

Seems like a really good time to take out a lot of Russian weapons since they are sitting there all in rows.

If this thing is going to go hot, that is.

NEW: The volume of Russian disinformation seeking to frame Ukraine as a threat to justify military action by Russia has more than doubled in the past week, western officials have said
UK Foreign Secretary @trussliz told #MCS2022 there'd been a 2-fold rise in 🇷🇺disinformation
1/

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) February 19, 2022

okay, the Olympics end tomorrow...then it's time to invade or go home

Rossticus said:

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Massive increase in Russian disinformation, escalating rhetoric, accusations of Ukrainian hostility.

Zelensky now telling NATO it's their responsibility to defend Ukraine due to Ukrainian forfeiture of deterrence measures in 1994 predicated on NATO assurance.

There is literally no happy ending to this thing now. Even if war is avoided it results in massive European destabilization and irreparable damage to NATO credibility and effectiveness. And the death of Ukraine as a sovereign nation.

---

If I was Ukraine, I would be asking for my nukes back.

Yeah. No isht.

Must listen.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-brinkmanship-a-special-episode-on-ukraine-and-russia/id1449631195?i=1000551519368

Wasn't aware that Russia has:

1) Rejected American proposals for negotiation outright after sitting on it for several days this past week.

2) Recognized an area of independence in Donbas which extends well outside of the currently contested area and sets Russia up to claim a large chunk of Ukrainian controlled sovereign territory.

New World Ag said:

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Dan Scott said:

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I think he makes a good point. If you know he'll attack then sanction them. Otherwise you're waiting for people to die. If you don't know they will attack then STFU.

Poor Ukraine caught in the middle of Putin and Natos bullcrap

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If you issue sanctions now, then Vlad has nothing to lose by attacking. They may also view the sanctions as escalation.

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Yeah but what they are saying is that he's already decided to attack. If I know somebody is going to punch me at 3pm after school, I punch him at 2:00pm.

All this tells me there won't be a war. You don't wait to be hit to respond, you go in now.

Rossticus said:

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Yeah. No isht.

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If they get through this and aren't a puppet state I wouldn't be surprised to see them re arm. I would expect a number of nations consider it. South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine maybe others.

aezmvp said:

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Rossticus said:

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Yeah. No isht.

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If they get through this and aren't a puppet state I wouldn't be surprised to see them re arm. I would expect a number of nations consider it. South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine maybe others.

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There is going to me a lot of rethinking the "give up nuke program for protection" line. I can imagine quite a few countries right now are making plans to start/restart a nuke program after how they are seeing Ukraine get boofed.

New World Ag said:

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Dan Scott said:

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I think he makes a good point. If you know he'll attack then sanction them. Otherwise you're waiting for people to die. If you don't know they will attack then STFU.

Poor Ukraine caught in the middle of Putin and Natos bullcrap

---

If you issue sanctions now, then Vlad has nothing to lose by attacking. They may also view the sanctions as escalation.

---

I don't necessarily agree with this part. I think Putin would have to endure the sanctions for a lot longer if he chooses to attack. If you sanction now, the ball would be in Putin's court to get the sanctions lifted by pulling back, which he could do quicker than conducting the invasion. Suppressing Ukraine and then waiting for the west to exhaust themselves with a sanction regime could take many years. Sanctions now could also weaken the strength and readiness of their attack if they choose to invade.

DCPD158 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Rossticus said:

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Yeah. No isht.

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If they get through this and aren't a puppet state I wouldn't be surprised to see them re arm. I would expect a number of nations consider it. South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine maybe others.

---

There is going to me a lot of rethinking the "give up nuke program for protection" line. I can imagine quite a few countries right now are making plans to start/restart a nuke program after how they are seeing Ukraine get boofed.

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Part of Putin's plan. It's a giant game of chicken that he doesn't think NATO has the mindset to play to win. And if they don't then they loose full credibility in the eyes of those they talked into nuclear disarmament. You want to see chaos and opportunity? See a bunch of countries suddenly enter a nuclear arms race. Europe would be a **** show.

He believes that he's the only one in the equation with the stomach to go to war, therefore he will eventually win this game.

Like most americans I have little to no knowledge of world history and politics. So I was looking at the wiki for the Budapest memorandum. Can someone explain this

Quote:

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As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Until then, Ukraine had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile, of which Ukraine had physical, but not operational, control. Russia alone controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons via Russian-controlled electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.

---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Secondly what happened (physically) to those nukes? Were they destroyed, moved, etc

TriAg2010 said:

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New World Ag said:

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Dan Scott said:

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I think he makes a good point. If you know he'll attack then sanction them. Otherwise you're waiting for people to die. If you don't know they will attack then STFU.

Poor Ukraine caught in the middle of Putin and Natos bullcrap

---

If you issue sanctions now, then Vlad has nothing to lose by attacking. They may also view the sanctions as escalation.

---

I don't necessarily agree with this part. I think Putin would have to endure the sanctions for a lot longer if he chooses to attack. If you sanction now, the ball would be in Putin's court to get the sanctions lifted by pulling back, which he could do quicker than conducting the invasion. Suppressing Ukraine and then waiting for the west to exhaust themselves with a sanction regime could take many years. Sanctions now could also weaken the strength and readiness of their attack if they choose to invade.

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Deterrence doesn't work by going up to someone and kicking them in the shin…then saying "you are deterred."

It works by saying…"if you do that, I'll kick you in the shin."

JobSecurity said:

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Like most americans I have little to no knowledge of world history and politics. So I was looking at the wiki for the Budapest memorandum. Can someone explain this

Quote:

---

As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Until then, Ukraine had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile, of which Ukraine had physical, but not operational, control. Russia alone controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons via Russian-controlled electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.

---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Secondly what happened (physically) to those nukes? Were they destroyed, moved, etc

---

They were controlled by Russia/USSR. Soviet Republic puppet. Very much like Belarus now but even more so. I imagined they were decommissioned and scrapped but unsure as to the eventual final destination of the nuclear material.

Today's news on Ukraine via BBC.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/british-pm-says-russia-plans-biggest-war-in-europe/id135067274?i=1000551639902

Gaslighting at its boldest. Next thing you know thousands of American mercenaries will be reportedly raping and pillaging in Donbas.

Gutsy move for Ukraine to kick off the genocide right when Russia has massed their invasion oops I mean liberation force.

Another really good pod from today to catch up on everything Ukraine, understand the dynamics, and understand Ukrainian public sentiment.

https://crooked.com/podcast/emergency-pod-brink-of-war-in-ukraine/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/emergency-pod-brink-of-war-in-ukraine/id1200016351?i=1000551630694

Looks like they are getting ready for war

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYcW5kbGRmdnNoAX8UvZi6AX8UvZh_AAAAAA?share_id=Mjg1NzYz&locale=en_US

Kyiv. Where are they going to go and what are they going to do until things actually kick off?

When they're dancing in Donbas we can talk. Fighting has been going on in the east since 2014 so they're not going to change their daily behavior until they're under direct threat, which hopefully they won't be.

With any luck all of this goes away or is localized to less populated areas.

K2-HMFIC said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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New World Ag said:

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Dan Scott said:

---

I think he makes a good point. If you know he'll attack then sanction them. Otherwise you're waiting for people to die. If you don't know they will attack then STFU.

Poor Ukraine caught in the middle of Putin and Natos bullcrap

---

If you issue sanctions now, then Vlad has nothing to lose by attacking. They may also view the sanctions as escalation.

---

I don't necessarily agree with this part. I think Putin would have to endure the sanctions for a lot longer if he chooses to attack. If you sanction now, the ball would be in Putin's court to get the sanctions lifted by pulling back, which he could do quicker than conducting the invasion. Suppressing Ukraine and then waiting for the west to exhaust themselves with a sanction regime could take many years. Sanctions now could also weaken the strength and readiness of their attack if they choose to invade.

---

Deterrence doesn't work by going up to someone and kicking them in the shin…then saying "you are deterred."

It works by saying…"if you do that, I'll kick you in the shin."

---

I'm not so much talking deterrence at this point as I am talking preemption or retaliation. Unfortunately, I think the opportunity for strategic deterrence within the scope of this crisis has passed. It's difficult to say "if Russia does X, then we'll do Y" when all that's left is for Russia to invade. If Russian chooses to invade, they will have absolutely priced-in the cost of sanctions and found the deterrent insufficient.

I think the argument for implementing sanctions now centers on making Russia feel the cost before they are committed and shells are flying. The hope is that front-loading that pain will make Putin rethink before it isn't too late.

JobSecurity said:

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Like most americans I have little to no knowledge of world history and politics. So I was looking at the wiki for the Budapest memorandum. Can someone explain this

Quote:

---

As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Until then, Ukraine had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile, of which Ukraine had physical, but not operational, control. Russia alone controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons via Russian-controlled electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.

---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Secondly what happened (physically) to those nukes? Were they destroyed, moved, etc

---

I believe they were dismantled at the soviet equivalent of Pantex to meet salt/start treaties IIRC

Captain Positivity said:

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Don't worry, guys. She's on it!

Held important talks with 🇺🇸 Vice President Kamala Harris @VP. Exchanged assessments of the security situation around 🇺🇦. Agreed on the need to find diplomatic ways to de-escalation. I appreciate the continued, effective support of 🇺🇸 for 🇺🇦 sovereignty and territorial integrity. pic.twitter.com/E2UH2kvO9I

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 19, 2022

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why do these idiots keep wearing masks when in a meeting with one or two other people?!?

Biden LITERALLY WAS WEARING A MASK WALKING INTO A ROOM YESTERDAY,

THEN TOOK OFF HIS MASK TO SPEAK TO THE MEDIA,

THEN PUT IT ON AGAIN WHEN HE WAS LEAVING

do these ******s have the logical thinking skills of 7 year olds?!?!

Zelensky was literally walking all over Ukraine without a mask the past week, but now two days later is forced to wear a mask around Cumala who has been vaxxed and boosted and is tested.

but science!!

Agthatbuilds said:

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Seems like a really good time to take out a lot of Russian weapons since they are sitting there all in rows.

If this thing is going to go hot, that is.

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been saying this for the last week

Irish 2.0 said:

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Not exactly a ringing endorsement from Xi to Putin…

China's foreign minister Wang Yi tells #MSC2022 that the sovereignty, independence & territorial integrity of every country should be safeguarded. "Ukraine is no exception," he says pic.twitter.com/23ByTHcnVj

— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) February 19, 2022

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Could be read as the ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine may vote for autonomy, separate nation status or joining Russia.

Wild ass guess on my part.

What in the hell are these mf'ers doing?

This is the most contrived bunch of nonsense I've ever seen.

This is all a big distraction for something bigger.

Heels on tv is an embarrassment

Ms 'never been to Europe' … looks like a saucer eyed dope.

Wtf. You know all this is gonna turn into a giant s*** show.

Sooooo, giant US, UK, EU, Russian coordinated conspiracy? That would be impressive.

Everyone will say that the moment Biden "put Kamala in charge of the Ukraine" is the point Putin decided to invade. If he does.