Thanks for the maps Serotonin.

I knew vaguely that there were more ethnic Russians in the South and East, but the maps put it in stark relief.

Serotonin said:

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Ultimately, the problem for Ukraine can be summed up in two maps:





All the talk of "Ukraine" vs "Russia" misses this point entirely.

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Insightful.

BQ78 said:

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Quote:

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Biden didn't put a 100 Russia combat units on Ukraine's border.

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No, but his weakness and ineptitude did.

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Oh I agree, but that doesn't make Biden a warmonger.

So this is a Ukrexit of sorts?

YouBet said:

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Serotonin said:

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Ultimately, the problem for Ukraine can be summed up in two maps:





All the talk of "Ukraine" vs "Russia" misses this point entirely.

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Insightful.

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Almost as badly divided as america

For all the talk about a "divided Ukraine," the have majority support for aligning with EU and NATO. Look at the rate of change since 2014 when reflecting on election maps from 2004.

62% of Ukrainians wish their country to be a NATO member, 30% are against. 68% are for the EU membership, 24% are against. This is all-time high support for both NATO and EU in Ukraine. Stop spreading Russian propaganda about "divided nation". A 2/3 majority is not a devision. pic.twitter.com/RbOmR7xZTT

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 17, 2022

His rhetoric may dispute that. He has poked the bear, then said a little invasion will be okay, then he's poked the bear some more and then said no Americans will fight. His vacillations and rhetoric is "warmongering." Pee Paw isn't dealing with Corn Pop anymore.

TriAg2010 said:

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For all the talk about a "divided Ukraine," the have majority support for aligning with EU and NATO. Look at the rate of change since 2014 when reflecting on election maps from 2004.

62% of Ukrainians wish their country to be a NATO member, 30% are against. 68% are for the EU membership, 24% are against. This is all-time high support for both NATO and EU in Ukraine. Stop spreading Russian propaganda about "divided nation". A 2/3 majority is not a devision. pic.twitter.com/RbOmR7xZTT

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 17, 2022

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You are thinking like an American. We haven't had a major land division in over a hundred years. Huge chunks of eastern Ukraine think of themselves as Russian. We spout that we are divided here( and we are) but it's not true ethnic division like it is in Ukraine. We are too dispersed while they are concentrated.

It's more akin to the Ireland situation than anything here. Ukraine is NOT truly unified and never has been. Majority rules don't mean jack to whole chunks of land.

Granted my own thinking is inherently biased as well as an American. Just the opposite tilt of you. Which means the truth is likely in the middle of course.

RUSSIA'S RIA NEWS AGENCY REPORTS LARGE EXPLOSION IN THE CENTRE OF SEPARATIST-HELD CITY OF DONETSK IN EAST UKRAINE

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 18, 2022

RUSSIA'S RIA REPORTS EXPLOSION OCCURRED NEAR SEPARATISTS' GOVERNMENT BUILDING

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 18, 2022

Irish 2.0 said:

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RUSSIA'S RIA NEWS AGENCY REPORTS LARGE EXPLOSION IN THE CENTRE OF SEPARATIST-HELD CITY OF DONETSK IN EAST UKRAINE

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 18, 2022

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And so the false flag begins

Invasion begins 4 pm EST.
Canada hard core crackdown begins 4 pm EST

Bonfire1996 said:

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Invasion begins 4 pm EST.
Canada hard core crackdown begins 4 pm EST

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I wish this was us invading Canada and removing Trudeau.

Alleged photos of the Donetsk explosion. pic.twitter.com/ks3tJlykfz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 18, 2022

Current reporting says it was a car bomb pic.twitter.com/3UXc1rE6B8

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 18, 2022

Eliminatus said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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For all the talk about a "divided Ukraine," the have majority support for aligning with EU and NATO. Look at the rate of change since 2014 when reflecting on election maps from 2004.

62% of Ukrainians wish their country to be a NATO member, 30% are against. 68% are for the EU membership, 24% are against. This is all-time high support for both NATO and EU in Ukraine. Stop spreading Russian propaganda about "divided nation". A 2/3 majority is not a devision. pic.twitter.com/RbOmR7xZTT

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 17, 2022

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You are thinking like an American. We haven't had a major land division in over a hundred years. Huge chunks of eastern Ukraine think of themselves as Russian. We spout that we are divided here( and we are) but it's not true ethnic division like it is in Ukraine. We are too dispersed while they are concentrated.

It's more akin to the Ireland situation than anything here. Ukraine is NOT truly unified and never has been. Majority rules don't mean jack to whole chunks of land.

Granted my own thinking is inherently biased as well as an American. Just the opposite tilt of you. Which means the truth is likely in the middle of course.

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there aren't ethnic divisions in the USA?!?

how about differences between latinos, africans, african americans, asians and Europeans?

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Current reporting says it was a car bomb pic.twitter.com/3UXc1rE6B8

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 18, 2022

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The Russians ability to make a maskirovka is slacking.

Man, lots of complex geopolitical historical tension and cultural stuff going on here.

How cool would it be to stay the hell out of it!!!!??

OG UNF said:

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Man, lots of complex geopolitical historical tension and cultural stuff going on here.

How cool would it be to stay the hell out of it!!!!??

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Just because you don't care about war, doesn't mean war doesn't care about you.

US division is more accurately represented as large cities vs everyone else with leftist enclave outliers in the latter.

I think he meant ethnic along with geographic. We're a melting pot for the most part geographically.

LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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For all the talk about a "divided Ukraine," the have majority support for aligning with EU and NATO. Look at the rate of change since 2014 when reflecting on election maps from 2004.

62% of Ukrainians wish their country to be a NATO member, 30% are against. 68% are for the EU membership, 24% are against. This is all-time high support for both NATO and EU in Ukraine. Stop spreading Russian propaganda about "divided nation". A 2/3 majority is not a devision. pic.twitter.com/RbOmR7xZTT

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 17, 2022

---

You are thinking like an American. We haven't had a major land division in over a hundred years. Huge chunks of eastern Ukraine think of themselves as Russian. We spout that we are divided here( and we are) but it's not true ethnic division like it is in Ukraine. We are too dispersed while they are concentrated.

It's more akin to the Ireland situation than anything here. Ukraine is NOT truly unified and never has been. Majority rules don't mean jack to whole chunks of land.

Granted my own thinking is inherently biased as well as an American. Just the opposite tilt of you. Which means the truth is likely in the middle of course.

---

there aren't ethnic divisions in the USA?!?

how about differences between latinos, africans, african americans, asians and Europeans?

---

You don't have huge concentrations here like they do over there. That's my point. We are way too intermixed. They are not. It would be as if all of Texas not only was culturally Mexican but largely thought of ourselves AS Mexican, not American, and wish to return to the "rightful" ways.

Again, look at the Ireland situation. They are far closer to that than anything we have here.

Maverick06 said:

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I think he meant ethnic along with geographic. We're a melting pot for the most part geographically.

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Looking at that map there is a hard, undeniable cut between ethnic, geographic, and political angles. From Putin's perspective (right or wrong), that's why he's making the case he is.

That map is also 14 years old so maybe the political part of that has changed?

YouBet said:

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Maverick06 said:

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I think he meant ethnic along with geographic. We're a melting pot for the most part geographically.

---

Looking at that map there is a hard, undeniable cut between ethnic, geographic, and political angles. From Putin's perspective (right or wrong), that's why he's making the case he is.

That map is also 14 years old so maybe the political part of that has changed?

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Hasn't changed much. Eastern Ukraine still largely wants to be under Russian control.

The damn thing of it all is that we can compare it to the Sudetenland and have it be just as viable. In Russia's eyes there are Russians living in former Russia who want to be Russian again. And they are mostly right depending on your perspective.

Watched a fascinating embedded report last week of some Ukrainian soldiers stationed in E. Ukraine. They are not exactly welcome there with open arms from the local populace. Even if they are ostensibly Ukrainian as well.

It's a mess and always has been.

Eliminatus said:

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YouBet said:

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Maverick06 said:

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I think he meant ethnic along with geographic. We're a melting pot for the most part geographically.

---

Looking at that map there is a hard, undeniable cut between ethnic, geographic, and political angles. From Putin's perspective (right or wrong), that's why he's making the case he is.

That map is also 14 years old so maybe the political part of that has changed?

---

Hasn't changed much. Eastern Ukraine still largely wants to be under Russian control.

The damn thing of it all is that we can compare it to the Sudetenland and have it be just as viable. In Russia's eyes there are Russians living in former Russia who want to be Russian again. And they are mostly right depending on your perspective.

Watched a fascinating embedded report last week of some Ukrainian soldiers stationed in E. Ukraine. They are not exactly welcome there with open arms from the local populace. Even if they are ostensibly Ukrainian as well.

It's a mess and always has been.

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Yea, the Ukrainian Russians in Eastern Ukraine want to be Russian so bad hundreds of thousands have fled to Western Ukraine.

The desire to be Russian is dropping…the quality of life is better in the West and they know it.

Yeah, I think the Ireland comparison is the best one out there. I have a hard time believing that preferences (pro-Russia or pro-EU) based on centuries-old ethnic divisions would shift so quickly.

Having said that, Soros is is pouring tons of money into the ground game there through his pro-EU foundation, so over time that could influence things:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Renaissance_Foundation
https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/newsroom/the-open-society-foundations-in-ukraine

K2-HMFIC said:

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Eliminatus said:

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YouBet said:

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Maverick06 said:

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I think he meant ethnic along with geographic. We're a melting pot for the most part geographically.

---

Looking at that map there is a hard, undeniable cut between ethnic, geographic, and political angles. From Putin's perspective (right or wrong), that's why he's making the case he is.

That map is also 14 years old so maybe the political part of that has changed?

---

Hasn't changed much. Eastern Ukraine still largely wants to be under Russian control.

The damn thing of it all is that we can compare it to the Sudetenland and have it be just as viable. In Russia's eyes there are Russians living in former Russia who want to be Russian again. And they are mostly right depending on your perspective.

Watched a fascinating embedded report last week of some Ukrainian soldiers stationed in E. Ukraine. They are not exactly welcome there with open arms from the local populace. Even if they are ostensibly Ukrainian as well.

It's a mess and always has been.

---

Yea, the Ukrainian Russians in Eastern Ukraine want to be Russian so bad hundreds of thousands have fled to Western Ukraine.

The desire to be Russian is dropping…the quality of life is better in the West and they know it.

---

That is true and something I thought about when I hit post. Was going to edit my reply when I saw yours.

There is an age division at play here as well. The older folks are the ones who lived under Russia and still want to again. They actually believe quality of life was better then too and actually probably was to some extent. Younger gens see the opportunity of western ideals but don't have the sway of the land and power yet.

Ukraine's situation sucks all around. Just so many different political and cultural pulls that makes everything so complicated. And fascinating to objective outsiders. I've been studying it since I found out about the Russian atrocities there back in Jr high. Ukraine is like Poland. A chunk of land that has had sooooo much history happen in and around it.

As a history nut, I love it. As a westerner, I feel for them. As a Texan, I sympathize with them. As a former trigger puller, I fear for them.

Eliminatus said:

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LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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For all the talk about a "divided Ukraine," the have majority support for aligning with EU and NATO. Look at the rate of change since 2014 when reflecting on election maps from 2004.

62% of Ukrainians wish their country to be a NATO member, 30% are against. 68% are for the EU membership, 24% are against. This is all-time high support for both NATO and EU in Ukraine. Stop spreading Russian propaganda about "divided nation". A 2/3 majority is not a devision. pic.twitter.com/RbOmR7xZTT

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 17, 2022

---

You are thinking like an American. We haven't had a major land division in over a hundred years. Huge chunks of eastern Ukraine think of themselves as Russian. We spout that we are divided here( and we are) but it's not true ethnic division like it is in Ukraine. We are too dispersed while they are concentrated.

It's more akin to the Ireland situation than anything here. Ukraine is NOT truly unified and never has been. Majority rules don't mean jack to whole chunks of land.

Granted my own thinking is inherently biased as well as an American. Just the opposite tilt of you. Which means the truth is likely in the middle of course.

---

there aren't ethnic divisions in the USA?!?

how about differences between latinos, africans, african americans, asians and Europeans?

---

You don't have huge concentrations here like they do over there. That's my point. We are way too intermixed. They are not. It would be as if all of Texas not only was culturally Mexican but largely thought of ourselves AS Mexican, not American, and wish to return to the "rightful" ways.

Again, look at the Ireland situation. They are far closer to that than anything we have here.

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have you been to an inner city lately?

or looked at the West Coast of the USA?

Yep, if you are ethnic Ukranian you have memory within 3 generations of millions killed by the Soviet government under Stalin.

If you are Russian you have memory within 3 generations of millions killed based on invasion from your western borders, including Ukraine.

Allowing Ukraine to join NATO leaves you in a horrible strategic position. You just can't let it happen, at any cost, even if you go down fighting.

LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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For all the talk about a "divided Ukraine," the have majority support for aligning with EU and NATO. Look at the rate of change since 2014 when reflecting on election maps from 2004.

62% of Ukrainians wish their country to be a NATO member, 30% are against. 68% are for the EU membership, 24% are against. This is all-time high support for both NATO and EU in Ukraine. Stop spreading Russian propaganda about "divided nation". A 2/3 majority is not a devision. pic.twitter.com/RbOmR7xZTT

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 17, 2022

---

You are thinking like an American. We haven't had a major land division in over a hundred years. Huge chunks of eastern Ukraine think of themselves as Russian. We spout that we are divided here( and we are) but it's not true ethnic division like it is in Ukraine. We are too dispersed while they are concentrated.

It's more akin to the Ireland situation than anything here. Ukraine is NOT truly unified and never has been. Majority rules don't mean jack to whole chunks of land.

Granted my own thinking is inherently biased as well as an American. Just the opposite tilt of you. Which means the truth is likely in the middle of course.

---

there aren't ethnic divisions in the USA?!?

how about differences between latinos, africans, african americans, asians and Europeans?

---

You don't have huge concentrations here like they do over there. That's my point. We are way too intermixed. They are not. It would be as if all of Texas not only was culturally Mexican but largely thought of ourselves AS Mexican, not American, and wish to return to the "rightful" ways.

Again, look at the Ireland situation. They are far closer to that than anything we have here.

---

have you been to an inner city lately?

or looked at the West Coast of the USA?

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Not even close to the same. Have you left the US at all?

We can agree to disagree though. Don't wish to derail this thread about American stuff. I'm actually using this thread for info updates and discussion of the current situation.

Serotonin said:

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Ultimately, the problem for Ukraine can be summed up in two maps:





All the talk of "Ukraine" vs "Russia" misses this point entirely.

---

The language map would have looked much different prior to WW2. Stalin conducted mass deportations of of Ukrainians from the area now Russian speaking. The sad story of the Crimean Tatars is particularly eventful. Russia today is being rewarded and justified in its actions by the genocide and crimes against humanity committed 80 years ago. And that is not even taking into event the Holodor of the 20s and 30s.

The corollary here is that 20 years from now China offers Mexico a sweet deal to join a mutual alliance and once agreed China can put hundreds of thousands of troops and weapons in Mexico, maybe right on the border.

If you are America, how do you respond?

Mexico has always been our sphere of influence, we've had the Monroe Doctrine, but Mexico may also feel like we've screwed them around at times (taking half their territory in the 1800s) and want to link up with China.

How do you think we'd respond?

Demosthenes81 said:

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Serotonin said:

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Ultimately, the problem for Ukraine can be summed up in two maps:





All the talk of "Ukraine" vs "Russia" misses this point entirely.

---

The language map would have looked much different prior to WW2. Stalin conducted mass deportations of of Ukrainians from the area now Russian speaking. The sad story of the Crimean Tatars is particularly eventful. Russia today is being rewarded and justified in its actions by the genocide and crimes against humanity committed 80 years ago. And that is not even taking into event the Holodor of the 20s and 30s.

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Yeah but the only reason you had Muslims there in a Christian area is because of brutal invasions in the 13th century:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Kievan_Rus%27

And on and on it goes back into history.

Serotonin said:

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The corollary here is that 20 years from now China offers Mexico a sweet deal to join a mutual alliance and once agreed China can put hundreds of thousands of troops and weapons in Mexico, maybe right on the border.

If you are America, how do you respond?

Mexico has always been our sphere of influence, we've had the Monroe Doctrine, but Mexico may also feel like we've screwed them around at times (taking half their territory in the 1800s) and want to link up with China.

How do you think we'd respond?

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That's such a stretch it's not even funny. Is China in the same region as Mexico? Is China contiguous to Mexico? Has the US recently attacked Mexico and annexed parts of Mexico? Is America an authoritarian autocracy who has stated their goal of annexing Mexico?