Valtrex11 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Ukraine is not a democracy they are pretty authoritarian wgas what Putin does to them..

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I see that you a). Watch Tucker Carlson. B). Fall victim to Russian propoganda very easily, and c). Are completely uninformed.

I just think the idea of a country who's leader is a commedian who won an election and was as far from the "ruling class" as possible not being a democracy is a hilarious assertion. And just to show that I know you get 100% of your opinions from Tucker Carlson, his "political rival" got arrested for corruption because he was Putin's lapdog and didn't support the Ukrainian people's wish - you know to become a western democracy distinctly different from Russia. Your boy Tucker is basically Russia Today.

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Attack the messenger and smear them ..This how i know you are wrong you didn't address anything disprove my point.

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Did you read the part where I talked about Zalensky. Let me guess you had no idea he was elected recently or that he had no government position prior to being elected? How exactly is it a dictatorship. Spell it out for me.

Gordo14 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Ukraine is not a democracy they are pretty authoritarian wgas what Putin does to them..

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Que???

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yeah man the current regime runs the country like Putin does Russia.

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Then Russia would not feel the need to take any military action, no? You make no logical sense.

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this makes no sense. Putin cares about Ukrainine doing what he tells them to do ie no Nato nothing else.

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How drunk are you?

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Sorry your dumb post threw me off. Ukrainie is an autocratic regime. Its two bad states having an issue like I said who cares...

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What about a recently elected comedian running the country screams "autocratic regime"? I'm sorry but this shows yoi have absolutely no idea what is happening.

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Still nothing disapprove the facts of that segment. Like I said you are clueless.

aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Ukraine is not a democracy they are pretty authoritarian wgas what Putin does to them..

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Que???

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yeah man the current regime runs the country like Putin does Russia.

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Then Russia would not feel the need to take any military action, no? You make no logical sense.

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Well Russia's perceived need is the talk about joining NATO. That's a hostile force to them.

Imagine our reaction (anyone but impotent Biden) if Mexico was `legally' going to join a CCP alliance. We would probably get in its way in as many ways as we could. Its no coincidence that Putin seems to be saying renouncing that bit will be enough for him to stand down. Take it fwiw.

aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Ukraine is not a democracy they are pretty authoritarian wgas what Putin does to them..

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Que???

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yeah man the current regime runs the country like Putin does Russia.

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Then Russia would not feel the need to take any military action, no? You make no logical sense.

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this makes no sense. Putin cares about Ukrainine doing what he tells them to do ie no Nato nothing else.

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How drunk are you?

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Sorry your dumb post threw me off. Ukrainie is an autocratic regime. Its two bad states having an issue like I said who cares...

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Can you not spell or is it you can not type?

ETA: Just a bot.

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Do you have an actual point to make ?

titan said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Ukraine is not a democracy they are pretty authoritarian wgas what Putin does to them..

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Que???

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yeah man the current regime runs the country like Putin does Russia.

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Then Russia would not feel the need to take any military action, no? You make no logical sense.

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Well Russia's perceived need is the talk about joining NATO. That's a hostile force to them.

Imagine our reaction (anyone but impotent Biden) if Mexico was `legally' going to join a CCP alliance. We would probably get in its way in as many ways as we could. Its no coincidence that Putin seems to be saying renouncing that bit will be enough for him to stand down. Take it fwiw.

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She has no point..

I agree to the spirit of this, not sure I agree with the how. We need to communicate ironclad support of Taiwan, not sure support of Ukraine is required for that. But measured support would make sense on some levels so think.

Valtrex11 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Ukraine is not a democracy they are pretty authoritarian wgas what Putin does to them..

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Que???

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yeah man the current regime runs the country like Putin does Russia.

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Then Russia would not feel the need to take any military action, no? You make no logical sense.

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this makes no sense. Putin cares about Ukrainine doing what he tells them to do ie no Nato nothing else.

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How drunk are you?

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Sorry your dumb post threw me off. Ukrainie is an autocratic regime. Its two bad states having an issue like I said who cares...

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What about a recently elected comedian running the country screams "autocratic regime"? I'm sorry but this shows yoi have absolutely no idea what is happening.

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Still nothing disapprove the facts of that segment. Like I said you are clueless.

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Name a single fact you said. You just regurgitated this Tucker Carlson segment:

Tucker says Ukraine is not a democracy pic.twitter.com/MZFMmh78gj

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 15, 2022

That's not a fact.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy

Zelensky, an actor and comedian, WON ELECTION IN 2019. You don't know the facts. You're upset that you are clueless. That's it.

Don't you dare defy Captain Herpes!

Even Taiwan is not a given. It would cost us more. We don't realize it, but China has less reason to in any way dial down or restrain itself in war against us if it happens. There is a large reservoir of friendlies among Americans and Russians in various walks. It would escalate slower in all likelihood as various actors tried to slow it.

But China from day one it will be the big one if we engage them moving on Taiwan. They see it as a right.

titan said:

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Even Taiwan is not a given. It would cost us more. We don't realize it, but China has less reason to in any way dial down or restrain itself in war against us if it happens. There is a large reservoir of friendlies among Americans and Russians in various walks. It would escalate slower in all likelihood as various actors tried to slow it.

But China from day one it will be the big one if we engage them moving on Taiwan. They see it as a right.

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They tend to see control of Asia as their "right".

Rossticus said:

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titan said:

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Even Taiwan is not a given. It would cost us more. We don't realize it, but China has less reason to in any way dial down or restrain itself in war against us if it happens. There is a large reservoir of friendlies among Americans and Russians in various walks. It would escalate slower in all likelihood as various actors tried to slow it.

But China from day one it will be the big one if we engage them moving on Taiwan. They see it as a right.

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They tend to see control of Asia as their "right".

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True enough. But they may not find the Vietnamese that easily tamed--have not so far. Ditto for the Indians and a reborn Japan if it continues.

titan said:

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Rossticus said:

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titan said:

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Even Taiwan is not a given. It would cost us more. We don't realize it, but China has less reason to in any way dial down or restrain itself in war against us if it happens. There is a large reservoir of friendlies among Americans and Russians in various walks. It would escalate slower in all likelihood as various actors tried to slow it.

But China from day one it will be the big one if we engage them moving on Taiwan. They see it as a right.

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They tend to see control of Asia as their "right".

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True enough. But they may not find the Vietnamese that easily tamed--have not so far. Ditto for the Indians and a reborn Japan if it continues.

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Taiwan will be a test case for them, IMO. They want Taiwan badly but also want to see the degree of resistance US, S Korea, and Japan exert. Japan and S Korea have no stomach for Chinese expansion plans and I think they'd hold their noses and work together if it came down to it.

On a different note, interesting listen from the Modern Military Institute at West Point podcast discussing Germany's stance in all of this as they continue to come across as tepid participants. Other two links were an assessment of Ukrainian military capabilities and assessment of the situation back in December as well as how and why we got here (guy was nails as far as how things have transpired).

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/germany-nato-and-the-ukraine-crisis/id1079958510?i=1000550546680

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-capable-is-ukraines-military/id1079958510?i=1000549069455

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-looming-showdown-over-ukraine/id1079958510?i=1000543728662

#UPDATE: #Russia has deployed a substantial amount of airpower near #Ukraine. Images below are from various areas in #Crimea. Image with the 60+ transport and attack helos is normally empty but is now packed full. Su-34s also traveled 9000km to the airbase shown below. pic.twitter.com/HByf1Qx9Z2

— ConflictsWorldwide (@ConflictsWW) February 15, 2022

Russian armor, artillery, missile artillery, and air power still moving into attack positions.

GAC06 said:

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Russian armor, artillery, missile artillery, and air power still moving into attack positions.

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Because Russian politicians have talked themselves into the inevitability of conflict over Ukraine and think it'll be easier in the long run to rip the bandaid off now. Question is, what does everyone else do?

With the way Ukraines president is acting, I'm not sure there will be much of a fight. Russia is moving on schedule. We and other NATO countries sent a fair amount of javelins and stingers. Other than that no one will do ***** If Ukraine fights hard it could be ugly for Russia. If they fold, it will be quite embarrassing for NATO

From Belarus, Russia, and Crimea?

GAC06 said:

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From Belarus, Russia, and Crimea?

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Russia could surprise everyone and invade from Moldova. We don't know and no one is asking the question. Everyone assumes the attack will happen near Belgorod, Russia , however the attack could come from Tiraspol, Moldova.

It's hard to hide armies. They are where they are and they're being seen.

GAC06 said:

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It's hard to hide armies. They are where they are and they're being seen.

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True, also what we are able to see. I know it was a long time again, however... Russia was able to go into Afghanistan with the U.S knowing it. Took the CIA a few days to figure that one out.

GAC06 said:

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It's hard to hide armies. They are where they are and they're being seen.

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Satellites are fun. Difference between Georgia, Crimea, and now is that it takes a much larger force build-up that you can't launch nearly as rapidly.

And social media (from soldiers and families and bystanders) make it very hard to hide.

aggiesheriff04 said:

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GAC06 said:

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From Belarus, Russia, and Crimea?

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Russia could surprise everyone and invade from Moldova. We don't know and no one is asking the question. Everyone assumes the attack will happen near Belgorod, Russia , however the attack could come from Tiraspol, Moldova.

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From what I understand they have a limited force in the SE of Moldova and that might be why they're surging their landing craft and other transport assets to take a run at Odessa but I don't know enough about the Ukrainian dispositions or assets and whether or not they would be able to fight that off. My guess is that no and that they'd be concentrating forces to defend Kyiv and the eastern portion of the country. I don't think the Russians have sufficient lift and support capability to supply a major force without direct support from Moldova until a link up with units and supply logistics coming from Crimea.

I have seen a fair amount of bridging equipment out there on social media so I would expect them to be headed West based on the geolocation available on some of those pictures but the Dnieper isn't a small river and a forced crossing will need a significant amount of artillery and air support. The Russians have that so it will get quite interesting.

GAC06 said:

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And social media (from soldiers and families and bystanders) make it very hard to hide.

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It's been similar in some ways to what happened in 2014 where Russian Soldiers were posting things to their social media and open source people were able to actively and accurately place them. Same thing is going on now with people posting Russian troop movements in Twitter and TikTok.

#BREAKING: Reports of a cyber attack in Ukraine on the websites of the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces, Privatbank and Oschadbank

— Global Defense Insight (@Defense_Talks) February 15, 2022

jabberwalkie09 said:

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#BREAKING: Reports of a cyber attack in Ukraine on the websites of the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces, Privatbank and Oschadbank

— Global Defense Insight (@Defense_Talks) February 15, 2022

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Step 1...

It was reported this morning that Russia has pulled some assets back away from the border. Feint? Who knows.

For those that missed it, we already have troops and assets in Taiwan helping them to beef up and prepare. Trump did that well over a year ago before he left office. This was reported early on in the Ukraine crisis.

Taiwan is much more strategically important than Ukraine. Not even a debate. Just hope Biden doesn't screw up Taiwan like he has everything else.

Cyber attacks from Cyprus, or the cia.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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#BREAKING: Reports of a cyber attack in Ukraine on the websites of the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces, Privatbank and Oschadbank

— Global Defense Insight (@Defense_Talks) February 15, 2022

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Dance puppets.

Russia "said" they were in the process of pulling troops back, but actual surveillance shows no actual withdrawal. In fact, more assets moving into place and field hospitals being constructed near border. Russia is playing the misinformation game - which would be the MO for imminent invasion.

This situation has NOT de-escalated, despite the propaganda being distributed by Russia.

BTHOB said:

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Russia "said" they were in the process of pulling troops back, but actual surveillance shows no actual withdrawal. In fact, more assets moving into place and field hospitals being constructed near border. Russia is playing the misinformation game - which would be the MO for imminent invasion.

This situation has NOT de-escalated, despite the propaganda being distributed by Russia.

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I'm watching for social media posts on fuel bowsers moving up or trains moving out. Until then nothing has changed. You don't fly air assets 9000 km and pull active duty soldiers from every military district in the country and activate and pull the national guard from Chechnya without getting SOMETHING in return. So far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything. Maybe a guarantee that Ukraine won't join NATO behind the scenes? But what else is he getting to back off?

aezmvp said:

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BTHOB said:

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Russia "said" they were in the process of pulling troops back, but actual surveillance shows no actual withdrawal. In fact, more assets moving into place and field hospitals being constructed near border. Russia is playing the misinformation game - which would be the MO for imminent invasion.

This situation has NOT de-escalated, despite the propaganda being distributed by Russia.

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I'm watching for social media posts on fuel bowsers moving up or trains moving out. Until then nothing has changed. You don't fly air assets 9000 km and pull active duty soldiers from every military district in the country and activate and pull the national guard from Chechnya without getting SOMETHING in return. So far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything. Maybe a guarantee that Ukraine won't join NATO behind the scenes? But what else is he getting to back off?

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Donbass

aezmvp said:

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BTHOB said:

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Russia "said" they were in the process of pulling troops back, but actual surveillance shows no actual withdrawal. In fact, more assets moving into place and field hospitals being constructed near border. Russia is playing the misinformation game - which would be the MO for imminent invasion.

This situation has NOT de-escalated, despite the propaganda being distributed by Russia.

---

I'm watching for social media posts on fuel bowsers moving up or trains moving out. Until then nothing has changed. You don't fly air assets 9000 km and pull active duty soldiers from every military district in the country and activate and pull the national guard from Chechnya without getting SOMETHING in return. So far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything. Maybe a guarantee that Ukraine won't join NATO behind the scenes? But what else is he getting to back off?

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If he can ruin Ukraine's economy by making air/shipping uninsurable that also works.

Russia cannot, and will not tolerate Ukraine in the EU/NATO. It has three avenues to this approach.
1) The best method is to have the rulers be friendly to Moscow (see Belarus, pre EuroMaidan Ukraine)
2) The second best method is to make Ukraine completely unappealing to the EU/NATO (See: Current day)
3) The last method is to invade and make it politically impossible to join NATO/EU due to territory dispute (See: 2014 Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea).