***** OFFICIAL Russia v. Ukraine *****

1,111,213 Views | 10330 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by TRM
torrid
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AG
aggiehawg said:

Who in the State Department thought this was a great idea?


Same people who sought to use Tik Tok influencers to spread the administration's policy on the Ukrainian war.
aggiehawg
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Get Off My Lawn said:

Rossticus said:

I'm doubtful that "proactive" and "Biden" can exist in the same book much less the same sentence.
All of these calls that "we must do SOMETHING!" (Up to and including carving up Russia) without definition of that 'something' is and how to do it and what it looks like in action are getting me nervous.

It's the precursor for pretty much every quagmire we've entered in the past century.

And I absolutely agree with the proactive element - it's about 6 weeks too late for that now, though. Most of the preemptive options were removed from the table once Russia rolled across the border.
Me too.
Rossticus
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aggiehawg said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

Rossticus said:

I'm doubtful that "proactive" and "Biden" can exist in the same book much less the same sentence.
All of these calls that "we must do SOMETHING!" (Up to and including carving up Russia) without definition of that 'something' is and how to do it and what it looks like in action are getting me nervous.

It's the precursor for pretty much every quagmire we've entered in the past century.

And I absolutely agree with the proactive element - it's about 6 weeks too late for that now, though. Most of the preemptive options were removed from the table once Russia rolled across the border.
Me too.


That's why I don't put much stock in punditry that engages in those type of nebulous exhortation. There are ample planned scenarios pre-developed and gamed by the NSA and military by this point. That said, carving up Russia is neither realistic nor would it achieve an optimal outcome unless this spilled over into WW3.

If Russia suffered a complete defeat that didn't devolve into a nuclear conflict then you'd probably see the equivalent of what transpired at the dissolution of the USSR on a larger scale. Many Russian republics designated as independent countries and developing their own governments. IMO, at least.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

That's why I don't put much stock in punditry that engages in those type of nebulous exhortation. There are ample planned scenarios pre-developed and gamed by the NSA and military by this point.
Maybe, maybe not. I know Rumsfeld was stunned there were no contingency plans for a war against Afghanistan.

But assuming you are correct and there such contingency plans, it will still be Biden's (or his puppetmaster's) call as to which one of those gets implemented.

Since we cannot really be sure who is pulling these strings and therefore what they personally may have to gain or lose depending on the scenario that makes me nervous as well.
Rossticus
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Trusting Biden's discretion is an entirely different matter. I don't trust his dead intellectual weight any farther than I could huck Kamala's hefty ass.
Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99
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Now that Japan is getting testy with Russia over contested islands, allow Japan to officially rearm unconditionally. Essentially open up Russias eastern front and tie Putins resources up so he cannot redeploy to Ukraine.

Japan doesn't have to actually attack, they simply have to divide Putins attention. But. Japan rearming will have other consequences such as South Korea and China becoming upset.
Rossticus
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We don't want this expanding to the Pacific. One theater at a time, please.
aggiehawg
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Interesting piece at American Thinker:

Quote:

While the Russians enjoyed superiority in numbers in February, the Ukrainians have since enlisted the help of most of their adult male citizens. Consider: Approximately 4 million people have fled Ukraine, principally women and children. If we assume the male relatives of those refugees have taken up arms, then the Ukrainian military may have added 1.3 million soldiers. Include the regular army of 200,000, and Ukraine may have 1.5 million men under arms.

At least some data points in this direction. For example, a Ukrainian military source notes that the country's territorial defense units are "complete" and "have as much as 150% of what is needed." Ukraine appears to have plenty of soldiers
Quote:

But what of their quality? At the start of the war, new recruits were teachers, salesmen, auto mechanics, and swimming coaches. They were hardly soldiers. In the intervening month, however, the Ukrainians have been bombed, fired upon, and probably engaged the enemy in some form. Some have killed and others have died. They are no longer amateurs but rapidly becoming battle-tested soldiers.
Quote:

According to a different video from the Ukrainian military source noted above, as many as 500,000 Ukrainian soldiers and policemen have been trained to fight the Russian military during joint forces operations with NATO.

How do the Ukrainians compare to the Russians? We know many of the Russians were raw recruits, poorly trained and equipped, and not even told they were going to war. Many were demoralized, fearful, and had no desire to fight in Ukraine.
Quote:

If one were to choose, the Ukrainians look like the superior bunch. We can therefore compare the current headcount of the Ukrainian military at, say, 1.5 million versus 150,000 Russians fighting in theater. Every Russian may soon be facing off against ten Ukrainians.

Moreover, the Ukrainians can more easily move around the country and concentrate forces where they are needed. The mooted numerical advantage of the Russians is no longer true. They are fighting a large and growing Ukrainian army, one more cohesive, experienced, and battle-hardened with every passing day. Ukraine is no pushover, not by a long shot.
Quote:

Meanwhile, the flow of NATO arms into Ukraine is becoming a flood. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby has stated that "the support is going in; it's going in very fast." Ad hoc shipments are turning into a steady flow of well-defined arms and other supplies.
And for the BOOM!

Quote:

Ukraine is not in NATO and probably never will be. But make no mistake, NATO is already in Ukraine and will be entrenched there for a long time. More and more, Russia will be facing off not against a weak, minor military, but rather a huge NATO army in all but name.
Link
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99
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Rossticus said:

We don't want this expanding to the Pacific. One theater at a time, please.


Wrong. We also need another counter to China.

Zero action is relatively equal to appeasement.
Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Rossticus said:

We don't want this expanding to the Pacific. One theater at a time, please.


Wrong. We also need another counter to China.

Zero action is relatively equal to appeasement.


I just mean not concurrently.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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This guy is trying to catalogue mass deportations and determine how many people are being abducted into Russia and where they're being made to disappear to. Interesting info. Liberal guy but seems to be trying to do good work. I don't follow anything else he does so not vouching for his politics, etc.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510726379347714049.html
backintexas2013
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Sounds like he doesn't even know if it's true. Is this Ukraine disinformation
Rossticus
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backintexas2013 said:

Sounds like he doesn't even know if it's true. Is this Ukraine disinformation


No. It's not disinformation.

He's referring to individual incidents/locations. Forced deportations have already been corroborated. Russia has also admitted to relocating Ukrainians into Russia. This isn't disputed and your comment is intentionally misleading.

His post is about documenting each specific instance, numbers, and locations for the purpose of future war crime prosecutions.
clw04
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Rossticus said:

backintexas2013 said:

Sounds like he doesn't even know if it's true. Is this Ukraine disinformation


No. It's not disinformation.

He's referring to individual incidents/locations. Forced deportations have already been corroborated. Russia has also admitted to relocating Ukrainians into Russia. This isn't disputed and your comment is intentionally misleading.

His post is about documenting each specific instance, numbers, and locations for the purpose of future war crime prosecutions.
Relocation is part of the Russian war strategy to cement their territorial gains via relocating the local population and moving in ethnic Russians. This has happened in Konigberg/Kallingrad, Crimea (after WWII), Estonia, Ukraine in the past and likely Ukraine now.
Rossticus
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Absolutely
aggiehawg
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So this is likely part of what the Russians will try to use in the UNSC meeting. Two Russian sources and one unknown of course.



Another version:



Then another guy on twitter.



So Russian contention is it was the Azoz Battalion that far north?
GAC06
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Apparently the 900 member unit based in Mariupol actually has tens of thousands of members all over the country according to Russia
aggiehawg
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GAC06 said:

Apparently the 900 member unit based in Mariupol actually has tens of thousands of members all over the country according to Russia
So confusing at times.
PJYoung
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aggiehawg
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If Russian military issued condoms work as well as their other military issued crap, there would seem to be a baby boom in Ukraine, if they stopped killing the women and girls they were raping, of course.
mike0305
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Yea, they were magically transported from Mariupol past multiple Russian BTGs, tortured and killed people in Bucha, took their magical transport back and are fighting in Mariupol again.
Rossticus
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Doubt the condoms are for the benefit of the women. These guys are gang raping women. I'll let you connect the dots from there as to the reason they're using condoms.
aggiehawg
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Rossticus said:

Doubt the condoms are for the benefit of the women. These guys are gang raping women. I'll let you connect the dots from there as to the reason they're using condoms.
Dots connected. Unfortunately.
A New Hope
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torrid said:

aggiehawg said:

Who in the State Department thought this was a great idea?


Same people who sought to use Tik Tok influencers to spread the administration's policy on the Ukrainian war.
So…someone with no access to actual High security info is advising our politicians on what to do so they can waste their time and get a photo op. Got it.
FamousAgg
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Any soldier caught with condoms should have their balls cut off

Well that probably applies to all of them
FamousAgg
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Also Putin, either your boys are raping Ukrainians or they are ****ing their buddies in the fox holes. Which one is it you *******?
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99
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Finally the Aliens are arriving.
Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Finally the Aliens are arriving.


At this point it's one of the few squares left on the BINGO card. And possibly one of the more preferable.
Rossticus
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