The Car Shortage Is About To Get A Whole Lot Worse

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ElKabong
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4:56p, 10/20/21

The Car Shortage Is About To Get A Whole Lot Worse

Essentially, you can't make cars without aluminum. You can't work with aluminum without using magnesium. And as of December, you may not be able to work with magnesium much if at all. Amos Fletcher, analyst for Barclays, put it succinctly: "If magnesium supply stops, the entire auto industry will potentially be forced to stop."

China has been in the midst of an energy crisis recently, with factories shutting down to conserve power. Unfortunately for the car industry, China is also the world's primary supplier of magnesium 85% of the world's supply comes from the country.

The most prevalent magnesium-producing town in China, Yulin, just ordered 35 of its 50 production facilities to shut down. The remaining 15 have been told to scale back operations by half, leaving production drastically reduced.

This slowdown in magnesium wouldn't be such an issue if the metal could be easily stored, but it's got an incredibly short life span on its own. Magnesium oxidizes relatively quickly, and European reserves are expected to run dry by the end of November.
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Carlo4
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4:59p, 10/20/21
AG
Still can't believe I got $6000 for a car with 155,000 miles, broken locks, hail damage, no AC, cracked leather seats, front bumper and reinforcement heavy damage, paint chipping away horribly.

Maybe I should have held out...
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aggiehawg
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4:59p, 10/20/21
AG
Terrific. Cue the auto bailouts.
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Ag In Ok
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5:00p, 10/20/21
AG
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.
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AgGrad99
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5:01p, 10/20/21
AG
This is what happens when you depend on a sole source.

Hoping we'll learn from this, and diversify manufacturing/supply, but I doubt it.
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Marcus Brutus
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5:04p, 10/20/21
Thanks Joe.
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My Name Is Judge
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 5:05p, 10/20/21
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.


Dead wrong


This is all by design to delete the working middle class
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Heelside Tantrum
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5:05p, 10/20/21
CMs voted for this.
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Marcus Brutus
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 5:06p, 10/20/21
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.


He wiped his butt (with the country).

Dude doesn't know whats going on. He's In PA today telling lies about the old days. He probably believes they are true, though.
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91AggieLawyer
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5:15p, 10/20/21
AG
Had lunch with a guy (an Aggie) who works for the financial arm of a major auto maker. I don't know for sure his level of knowledge on the subject, but he thinks the chip issue won't be settled until 2024 at the earliest.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 5:16p, 10/20/21
AG
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.


Lol imagine believing this is incompetence vs intentional.
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Madman
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In reply to 91AggieLawyer • 5:21p, 10/20/21
AG
91AggieLawyer said:
Had lunch with a guy (an Aggie) who works for the financial arm of a major auto maker. I don't know for sure his level of knowledge on the subject, but he thinks the chip issue won't be settled until 2024 at the earliest.


My company sells items, the same part numbers in fact, that the US Military and the chip makers use. Currently the military has us backlogged well into next year.

Now we have competitors, but they are in a similar place as we are supply wise.
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A_Gang_Ag_06
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5:23p, 10/20/21
AG
So glad I got my Tacoma six months ago. If I treat her right, she'll be my Al Bundy Dodge.

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samurai_science
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In reply to AgGrad99 • 5:24p, 10/20/21
AgGrad99 said:
This is what happens when you depend on a sole source.

Hoping we'll learn from this, and diversify manufacturing/supply, but I doubt it.
As I have said, lots of companies (like Samsung), since Trump started the trade war have been moving to get out of China, but these things can take years.
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DamnGood86
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:29p, 10/20/21
AG
aggiehawg said:
Terrific. Cue the auto bailouts.

We have a winner.
You may not be a moron, but some people think you are.
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PneumAg
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 5:31p, 10/20/21
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.


I disagree. They are complicit in it. The fascists on the left want to limit the ability of the general population to move around freely. What better way to do that than by coordinating with China to choke off the supply of new vehicles and make buying them cost-prohibitive for most people? It will only take a few years before half of the population can't find a working car. I think one of their next steps will be to take drastic measures domestically to destroy the oil and gas industry and cut off the supply of gasoline. This is in tandem with leftist private equity groups buying up residential homes and undeveloped real property everywhere, causing an explosion of home prices and decreasing the supply of homes available for people to actually purchase and own. These people puppet-mastering Biden ultimately want everybody herded into the cities, living in government-funded housing, and relegated to government-controlled public transportation.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to DamnGood86 • 5:34p, 10/20/21
AG
DamnGood86 said:
aggiehawg said:
Terrific. Cue the auto bailouts.

We have a winner.
You know they will be coming.
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 5:50p, 10/20/21
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.
They are deliberately creating shortages and colluding with China. Xi's puppet is in the White House.
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AgResearch
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:54p, 10/20/21
AG
aggiehawg said:
DamnGood86 said:
aggiehawg said:
Terrific. Cue the auto bailouts.

We have a winner.
You know they will be coming.
All those year old cars with no chips....coming to a govt landfill near you.
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bcosf
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In reply to ElKabong • 5:55p, 10/20/21
Guess I don't understand. If there are thousands of new cars just waiting for chips, then why are the auto manufacturers needing to continue producing more cars. Seems like a really big oversupply will occur if/when the chips become available again
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AgGrad99
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In reply to samurai_science • 5:57p, 10/20/21
AG
baron_von_awesome said:
AgGrad99 said:
This is what happens when you depend on a sole source.

Hoping we'll learn from this, and diversify manufacturing/supply, but I doubt it.
As I have said, lots of companies (like Samsung), since Trump started the trade war have been moving to get out of China, but these things can take years.


I'm seeing that as well. But most are doing it out of short term necessity. I hope this is a life lesson that lasts decades, but I'm skeptical
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to AgGrad99 • 5:58p, 10/20/21
AgGrad99 said:
baron_von_awesome said:
AgGrad99 said:
This is what happens when you depend on a sole source.

Hoping we'll learn from this, and diversify manufacturing/supply, but I doubt it.
As I have said, lots of companies (like Samsung), since Trump started the trade war have been moving to get out of China, but these things can take years.


I'm seeing that as well. But most are doing it out of short term necessity. I hope this is a life lesson that lasts decades, but I'm skeptical
We are living the Ant and the Grasshopper. Nothing will be learned.
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LOYAL AG
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6:19p, 10/20/21
AG
My son got in a wreck a few weeks ago and found out last week that his car was total. It was a 2016 Hyundai Veloster he bought used two years ago. The insurance value was $700 less than what he paid for it. Of course he had to buy something else and I'm sure that was similarly overpriced but yes the market is a mess right now.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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Skillet Shot
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In reply to AgGrad99 • 6:25p, 10/20/21
AgGrad99 said:
This is what happens when you depend on a sole source.

Hoping we'll learn from this, and diversify manufacturing/supply, but I doubt it.


We are becoming a more important supplier being based in houston. Our foreign national competitors have cheap labor but the logistics are killing them.
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Rapier108
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In reply to 91AggieLawyer • 6:26p, 10/20/21
91AggieLawyer said:
Had lunch with a guy (an Aggie) who works for the financial arm of a major auto maker. I don't know for sure his level of knowledge on the subject, but he thinks the chip issue won't be settled until 2024 at the earliest.
I work in IT and that is a pretty good bet.

And if China invades Taiwan, probably 2034 at the earliest.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AgResearch • 6:36p, 10/20/21
AG
AgResearch said:
aggiehawg said:
DamnGood86 said:
aggiehawg said:
Terrific. Cue the auto bailouts.

We have a winner.
You know they will be coming.
All those year old cars with no chips....coming to a govt landfill near you.
Exactly. Only way you can restart manufacturing. Shelf life of magnesium dictates that.

Maybe ship the cars to China as scrap metal and then send them back as cans, other metal containers?

Hell if I know how to get around this one. Cash for clunkers won't work at all. Subsidies won't work because it will be a worldwide shortage. And with the computer chip shortage? Doesn't matter much to try to boost sales.

Cuba might be out of vintage cars not that far into the future as they get sold for use in the U.S. Also Classic Car collectors need to up their insurance.
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Aggie95
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6:42p, 10/20/21
AG
I can see a way out of chip problem...make more here but that will take 3 to 5 years.
But....how do we fix the magnesium issue? If the natural resource supply is in China there's not an easy fix.
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FJB
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6:43p, 10/20/21
AG
Yea globalism!
Who is John Galt?

2026
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Dr. Teeth
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In reply to Aggie95 • 6:45p, 10/20/21
AG
Aggie95 said:
I can see a way out of chip problem...make more here but that will take 3 to 5 years.
But....how do we fix the magnesium issue? If the natural resource supply is in China there's not an easy fix.


Or how about make cars without the unnecessary computerized bull****?
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nortex97
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 6:46p, 10/20/21
AG
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.
The administration is on the other side. It makes a lot more sense once one accepts this. Xiden is bought and paid for by the CCP.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Aggie95 • 6:46p, 10/20/21
AG
Aggie95 said:
I can see a way out of chip problem...make more here but that will take 3 to 5 years.
But....how do we fix the magnesium issue? If the natural resource supply is in China there's not an easy fix.
Come on, man! Give more federal money to GM and the automakers! That will solve the magnesium issue!

Do you not ObamaSpeak, bro?
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YouBet
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6:48p, 10/20/21
AG
This kind of stuff cascades big time. There are going go to be wars soon.
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BAP Enthusiast
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 6:49p, 10/20/21
Ag In Ok said:
This is an economic hot war and the current administration is utterly confused and misguided.


This isn't Economic war on china's part. Their economy is cratering just like ours. People have absolutely no idea that every country is perilously close to that razor's edge. The entire system is about to go off a cliff.

China is panicking just like we are because they have no fuel for their power plants, which means no power to their factories.

This is going to get very bad. The global supply chain going up in smoke will have ramifications not seen in the modern world. We have no comparable moment in history. The Great Depression does not compare because supply wasn't the problem.
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nortex97
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In reply to Aggie95 • 6:50p, 10/20/21
AG
Aggie95 said:
I can see a way out of chip problem...make more here but that will take 3 to 5 years.
But....how do we fix the magnesium issue? If the natural resource supply is in China there's not an easy fix.
China also owns the global lithium and cobalt supply too (via both the mines and more significantly the refining processors.) This isn't their only ace in the hole, in other words. They are going to twist the knife in 2021 hoping to create a cascade of events that…keeps Dems in power in the US.
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MookieBlaylock
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6:58p, 10/20/21
AG
For a hundred yeara they made cars without chips that worked fine
Shouldnt be too hard
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