I'm not a lawyer, so I won't provide any legal analysis of the Supreme Court's consideration of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the Mississippi law banning abortion after 15 weeks gestation, though I'd love to hear it from others.
Instead, a game theory look at why I think that Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey will be overturned in June of 2022.
Ignoring for the time being that the U. S. Constitution, in full, as amended, is silent on abortion, Roe and Casey plainly forbid pre-viability abortion bans.
It takes 4 votes to grant cert, and the only question the Court is taking up is: Whether all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortions are unconstitutional.
It seems to me that the Court has left itself only two choices: overturn Roe and Casey, or affirm them, practically making overturning impossible forever. I don't think there is a middle way.
If that is so, if it's a one-time, zero-sum game, I don't believe that (at least) 4 justices would've agreed to hear the case if there weren't 5 votes to overturn Roe and Casey. And if there are 5, then there are certainly 6. Even if he were otherwise opposed to overturning precedent, Roberts* will join in order to write the opinion, as it will be the biggest SC ruling in 50 years. That is the case no matter the decision. And Roberts knows he and his court will be defined forever by this decision (and obamacare; see below).
Given the narrow question, and the clearly anti-constitutional nature of this country's abortion jurisprudence, I wonder if there's not an outside chance of a unanimous ruling in favor of Mississippi's law.
*as an aside, Roberts will never be forgiven for obamacare, but nobody will remember last year's Russo case if he authors the opinion striking down Roe and Casey. It was surmised at the time that his going along with that ruling actually made it more likely that Roe and Casey would be overturned, as that case tinkered at the margins rather that directly attacking it. We'll see.
Instead, a game theory look at why I think that Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey will be overturned in June of 2022.
Ignoring for the time being that the U. S. Constitution, in full, as amended, is silent on abortion, Roe and Casey plainly forbid pre-viability abortion bans.
It takes 4 votes to grant cert, and the only question the Court is taking up is: Whether all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortions are unconstitutional.
It seems to me that the Court has left itself only two choices: overturn Roe and Casey, or affirm them, practically making overturning impossible forever. I don't think there is a middle way.
If that is so, if it's a one-time, zero-sum game, I don't believe that (at least) 4 justices would've agreed to hear the case if there weren't 5 votes to overturn Roe and Casey. And if there are 5, then there are certainly 6. Even if he were otherwise opposed to overturning precedent, Roberts* will join in order to write the opinion, as it will be the biggest SC ruling in 50 years. That is the case no matter the decision. And Roberts knows he and his court will be defined forever by this decision (and obamacare; see below).
Given the narrow question, and the clearly anti-constitutional nature of this country's abortion jurisprudence, I wonder if there's not an outside chance of a unanimous ruling in favor of Mississippi's law.
*as an aside, Roberts will never be forgiven for obamacare, but nobody will remember last year's Russo case if he authors the opinion striking down Roe and Casey. It was surmised at the time that his going along with that ruling actually made it more likely that Roe and Casey would be overturned, as that case tinkered at the margins rather that directly attacking it. We'll see.