I'd like to hear more about micro generation...

Sure, I'll PM you - actually looks like you don't have that feature turned on - feel free to PM me

In all seriousness, I bet a lot of people who followed your posts over the last week+ would find a webcast or something similar about the events of the last week and your micro generation / trading business very interesting to if you ever decide to do something like that.

I followed your posts last week. Thanks for your insight.

Cassius said:

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Adam, I'd like to make millions in the span of a few days doing energy trading....

Please PM me.

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from puerto Rico no less

Good bull! Gig'em, Adam!

The idea of microplants is very interesting to me.

Do you have any idea on what the normal size of these things are? Where they are located? Seems like a great potential investment if you know the power industry.

Gig'em gonemaroon , thanks.

Thank you for your generosity! And not just in cash (although that will help a bunch of Texans, too). The information you provided here and elsewhere was incredibly helpful.

Which thread has the best summary of the event. I had been telling a co-worker of what I was reading and but, not sure I have all the story.

gonemaroon said:

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https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3182697

I'd try this thread / I was posting on it and reading it. It was longer than most of the other threads and had some decent content.

I am listening to ERCOT meeting right now and my friends and I think they are stretching the truth and/or dumb/lying.

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Great, thanks for all this and your kind heart

So you actually received the check? I've been wondering from whom and how these generators would get paid (I'm talking about the small-but-bit-micro ones that were pulling tens of millions per day).

I have not received a check - but I did donate the money. Guess I better pray ERCOT can pay it's bills

I'm interested in your thoughts on the WSJ article today on the costs of deregulation in Texas.

Alright - I'm going to take a crack at this and I'm not 100% sure since they didn't include any numbers or facts in their analysis - transmission rates in Texas are through the roof so while electricity is cheap in Texas historically speaking due to the build out of free wind and now solar - we pay for the ability to flow that power across the transmission networks - TDSP charges which you can see on your bill are very pricey. So when they say customers pay more - well that is in the final price.

Starting in 2018 we've had huge moves in the spot markets that smaller retail providers have a hard time hedging. That is why Vistra and NRG have been on buying sprees of retail because they can absorb the very own pricing volatility that they cause. NRG or Vistra know ahead of time or at least at the time if their plants break so they have that first moving advantage to hedge before their lack of production causes shortages. With $9,000 price caps we've seen wild swings in the futures markets that do not necessarily flow through to their narrative "wholesale prices are cheap" - in 2018 Summer we had one day trading $800 what we call hours ending 7-22 "peak" on the futures market only to settle in real-time $30 because the wind ramped out of no where. So this article is dumb and lacks a lot of facts.

I don't know the editors otherwise I'd try to get the information from them - but I will say this / competition is way down on the grid. Vistra and NRG create volatility involuntarily or voluntarily and push forward markets around and they essentially have pushed all the small REPS over the cliff since 2012. Look at Power To Choose - most of them are owned by the big 2.

Just a side note - Direct Energy I am hearing wasn't fully hedged and NRG lost STP and several other plants during the crisis (of course their customers got their power cut off so they didn't have to pay spot market for the load reduction) otherwise NRG would have went belly up - and even possibly Vistra - it was that bad.

gonemaroon very interesting. Thank you for the background. In your opinion what is the solution, if there is one, to what appears to be market consolidation? Perhaps also to include steps to mitigate issues like we saw last week.

It is my opinion deregulation generally is good but the function of regulators in a competitive market is to ensure there is adequate competition. Otherwise we end up in a oligopoly or duopoly situation which is not much better than a monopoly.

Solid market monitoring is needed - the system had been working other than a few minor blips here and there. I think there's too much "let's take their word for it" when it comes to the generators rather than investigating and ensuring no market manipulation is occurring. That alone would allow the deregulated small guy to be on the same footing as the big guy.

The gens pushed for higher price caps and more bullish ORDC rule changes yet they really haven't built new generation so they are pushing agendas for older plants and now it appears not winterizing them also. There should have been stipulations with the increase in pricing mechanics.

Now it's all bets are off who knows where we go from here. Probably a capacity market of some sorts.

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The gens pushed for higher price caps and more bullish ORDC rule changes yet they really haven't built new generation

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Truth. There's been way too many wind and solar new-builds and permits out there for anyone to build new thermal generators. There's a lot of uncertainty there and not many have invested in conventional generation. I think the pricing scheme (along with subsidies) from the get-go has led to a focus on renewables and cheaper/smaller gas peaking units. It's a model that can work if we increase the number of CC gas plants, but then we're even more reliant on gas.

http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197379/CapacityDemandandReservesReport_Dec2020.pdf

Felt like this was an appropriate place to put this and say thanks, Adam.

https://www.expressnews.com/news/education/article/Grad-donates-20-million-Texas-A-M-San-Antonio-16641444.php

The problem isn't fixed. What happened 3 weeks ago?

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Felt like this was an appropriate place to put this and say thanks, Adam.

https://www.expressnews.com/news/education/article/Grad-donates-20-million-Texas-A-M-San-Antonio-16641444.php

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Got anything not behind eleventy billion paywalls?

Just put the two together, but this is the same guy who paid the $10,000 bar tab at Corner Bar after the Bama game. Thought it was a big deal then, not so much anymore

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Of course lots of generation companies were caught with broken plants, frozen plants and wind mills frozen up so there's a lot of financial pain in the industry - it's not all roses. I personally experienced both sides.

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This just isn't acceptible. In Information Technology, we have redundant everything. Power supplies, CPUs, Battery Backups, Internet connections, Backups x3, hosting companies, et. al.

I don't understand how OT and other mission critical industries can be so far behind the curve when it comes to stability and safety. I know how it works because I now have direct interaction with OT and SCADA/ICS systems including critical infrastructure and power. It is baffling, but not shocking to see what happened last winter.

I don't understand how an industry doesn't have a solid COOP/DR/BCP for all of the Texas power grid. It should be reviewed quarterly and all interested parties should be tabletop discussing all aspects continuously.

It is probably partly due to elements overlooked in the transition of the ill-conceived switch to remote and other kinds of autimation for the grid, from its more reliable manual controls of last century.

FERC report detailing the causes for anyone that cares to read it. I have only because I'm in this line of work.

https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/final-report-february-2021-freeze-underscores-winterization-recommendations

PUCT also put out new rules for winterization requiring CEOs to attest that XYZ occurred by December 1st and will occur throughout winter so nobody in the power generation industry is overlooking anything. Their CEOs ass is on the line.