"Seconds and minutes" away from catastrophic monthslong blackouts

8,835 Views | 123 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by geoag58
ElKabong
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Be grateful for what you have Plebs. The new talking points are out.

Texas was "seconds and minutes" away from catastrophic monthslong blackouts, officials say

Officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said that grid operators implemented blackouts to avoid a catastrophic failure that could have left Texans in the dark for months.

Texas' power grid was "seconds and minutes" away from a catastrophic failure that could have left Texans in the dark for months, officials with the entity that operates the grid said Thursday.

As millions of customers throughout the state begin to have power restored after days of massive blackouts, officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which operates the power grid that covers most of the state, said Texas was dangerously close to a worst-case scenario: uncontrolled blackouts across the state.

The quick decision that grid operators made in the early hours of Monday morning to begin what was intended to be rolling blackouts but lasted days for millions of Texans occurred because operators were seeing warning signs that massive amounts of energy supply was dropping off the grid.

As natural gas fired plants, utility scale wind power and coal plants tripped offline due to the extreme cold brought by the winter storm, the amount of power supplied to the grid to be distributed across the state fell rapidly. At the same time, demand was increasing as consumers and businesses turned up the heat and stayed inside to avoid the weather.


jagvocate
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PR people are the worst

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nortex97
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Oh what hero's. I'm reminded of gone maroon's analogy that we needed a sub-2.0 ERA Greg Maddox but got a Mitch mustain running the ship.
chris1515
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If that is true that an uncontrolled blackout would've rendered the grid useless for months, then every hacker in the world has a new #1 target.
Cassius
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Is the Tribune a Soros operation?
Cassius
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so ERCOT saved the day? they created the problem then saved us from the problem?
Science Denier
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LMFAO!!!

This probably is true. These idiots couldn't run a lemonade stand, much less our power grid.

What's shocking is not that we were minutes away from having month long blackouts. What's shocking is that they think that admitting that we were that close is somehow a positive for them.
fixer
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Cassius said:

so ERCOT saved the day? they created the problem then saved us from the problem?
One of the tried and true ways to get ahead in a corporate setting. It is astonishingly effective.

Dr. Horrible
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After following gonemaroon on the other thread, they're not wrong on the outcome, it could have been very bad and much worse. But from what he said, they're wrong on the cause. They should have started rolling blackouts earlier.
Fat Black Swan
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Why'd they have a lawyer offer up this spin? Why didn't the press ask, "If you did such a great preemptive job of saving us all, why'd the grid frequency drop to 59.3 Hz just prior to your load shedding?
Cassius
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Science Denier said:

LMFAO!!!

This probably is true. These idiots couldn't run a lemonade stand, much less our power grid.

What's shocking is not that we were minutes away from having month long blackouts. What's shocking is that they think that admitting that we were that close is somehow a positive for them.

Yeah, that's pretty funny.
Muy
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They either did a horrible job at being prepared for this, or they sound like Obama telling us he saved us from another Great Depression.
wbt5845
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Que Te Gusta Mas said:

Why'd they have a lawyer offer up this spin? Why didn't the press ask, "If you did such a great preemptive job of saving us all, why'd the grid frequency drop to 59.3 Hz just prior to your load shedding?

I was shocked seeing that number. How someone was sitting there saying "yeah we're good" as it dropped below 59.5 is beyond me.

This is the corporate equivalent of saying "yeah I was driving 100 mph in a blizzard and lost control of my car and damn near crashed and killed myself - but I recovered from it so aren't I a good driver?"
MouthBQ98
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That is very true. They had to dump load or they could have seriously damaged some of the generators, and it really could have spun out of control if generators fell offline faster than they could de-load the remaining ones online. That is all very true.

The issue isn't that, such are all pre-arranged and sometimes even automated processes.

It is how we got to the point where that sequence of events was triggered? Why was gas delivery so easily disruptable due to a cold snap? Why wasn't the excess of demand load predictable and loading adjustments made beforehand? Why did they increase gas generation to maximum of online facilities to meet load knowing that wind generation was about to fall off, leaving zero safety margin for the resulting overload condition? These things are predictable. In fact they've all been pointed out in past failure studies.
rackmonster
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In some hospitals in Texas they are having to hand-fish feces out of the toilets...no way to flush them.

and Rick Perry says this is the price that Texas must pay for Freezdom...uhh..I mean..Freedom.

Does the School of Engineering at Texas A&M still teach Outhouse Design?

Welcome to your Conservative Republican Future Texas.

Tom Doniphon
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Troll better.
giddings_ag_06
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I'm a distribution operator and we were prepared a week in advance. We doubled are staff on shifts and went into 12 on 12 off hour shifts in the offices and field. There was no "last second saved us" moment. Anyone with half a brain could see what was coming. That was simply lack of preparation.
Tom Doniphon
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Quote:

It is how we got to the point where that sequence of events was triggered? Why was gas delivery so easily disruptable due to a cold snap? Why wasn't the excess of demand load predictable and loading adjustments made beforehand? Why did they increase gas generation to maximum of online facilities to meet load knowing that wind generation was about to fall off, leaving zero safety margin for the resulting overload condition?

My uninformed opinion - in the age of deregulation (which I am for), there's a lack of financial incentive for weatherization, etc.
Zobel
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nortex97 said:

Oh what hero's. I'm reminded of gone maroon's analogy that we needed a sub-2.0 ERA Greg Maddox but got a Mitch mustain running the ship.


I thought the same about the grid but I have been thinking since. There are two scenarios. One is human error - capacity was dropping and load was riding and the operator failed to reduce it in time.

The other is that capacity rapidly dropped due to a plant trip, beginning a low frequency trip cascade, and the operator reacted to shed load appropriately. The article says the operator intervened before the system automatic sheds.

I'm sure there are logs on the system including warnings. Both scenarios could explain what we saw. We don't know yet.
mesocosm
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MouthBQ98 said:

That is very true. They had to dump load or they could have seriously damaged some of the generators, and it really could have spun out of control if generators fell offline faster than they could de-load the remaining ones online. That is all very true.

The issue isn't that, such are all pre-arranged and sometimes even automated processes.

It is how we got to the point where that sequence of events was triggered? Why was gas delivery so easily disruptable due to a cold snap? Why wasn't the excess of demand load predictable and loading adjustments made beforehand? Why did they increase gas generation to maximum of online facilities to meet load knowing that wind generation was about to fall off, leaving zero safety margin for the resulting overload condition? These things are predictable. In fact they've all been pointed out in past failure studies.


Incompetent and greedy Republican liars have been in charge. It really is that simple.
Religion is the principal enemy of moral progress in the world - Bertrand Russell
Zobel
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This. They may or may not have done right in that actual moment but the problem was baked in.
MouthBQ98
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I put it to you the same thing would have happened with Democrats in charge, but for different reasons, almost assuredly.

It would have been incompetence versus indifference.
mesocosm
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MouthBQ98 said:

I put it to you the same thing would have happened with Democrats in charge, but for different reasons, almost assuredly.


Typical deflection
Religion is the principal enemy of moral progress in the world - Bertrand Russell
MouthBQ98
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Well, we have no control to establish differently. We only have the one condition that exists, so we literally can't prove that you or I are more correct experimentally. We are equally possibly correct.
Zobel
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I don't know about months but we'd still be getting it back up. /thatswhatshesaid

A complete blackout would make it very difficult to get anything down for cold related trips back up. I don't know how many of our plants are equipped with black start capabilities or local power to start, but I don't want to find out how many of those would have been able to start. A complete blackout would have also further reduced nat gas production. It would have been an absolute mess. I am very very glad it didn't happen.
MouthBQ98
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Question: are the Ercot board Republicans? Are the boards and officers of the natural gas supply and distribution businesses Republicans? Might want to investigate this. It's a pretty good odds they mostly are, but it's best to be sure before leveling blame.

I'm also REALLY sure that Republicans are not dominant in the Federal regulatory agencies that control power generation such as the EPA.
TXTransplant
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MouthBQ98 said:

Question: are the Ercot board Republicans? Are the boards and officers of the natural gas supply and distribution businesses Republicans? Might want to investigate this. It's a pretty good odds they mostly are, but it's best to be sure before leveling blame.


This...most traditional manufacturing companies lean conservative. But there isn't a plant (electric or not) that doesn't face the same dilemma about spending capital costs as a preventative measure for incidents like this.

The difference is, a chemical plant going down doesn't disrupt lives like a power plant going down does.

The almighty dollar has no political affiliation.
fta09
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Keegan99
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MouthBQ98 said:

Question: are the Ercot board Republicans? Are the boards and officers of the natural gas supply and distribution businesses Republicans? Might want to investigate this. It's a pretty good odds they mostly are, but it's best to be sure before leveling blame.

I'm also REALLY sure that Republicans are not dominant in the Federal regulatory agencies that control power generation such as the EPA.


The ERCOT Board is selected by the ERCOT Board.

The chairperson lives in Michigan, and is a climate-change-touting leftist.

The vice-chairperson lives in Germany, and is a climate-change-touting leftist.
IslanderAg04
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One thing for sure, renewables put pressure on O&G bc theyre are unreliable when you need them most. Put the 15% back in coal from wind and we would have had 0 issues.
BanderaAg956
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Tax and other financial incentives for green energy versus capitalist making money and reinvesting .... capitalist make tough decisions green sucks the government dry for very little value!
Liberals are Damn Liars! Terminate Section 230! It has been ONLY 72!hours since my last banning for defending my conservative values against liberal snowflake cupcakes and the LIBERAL Mod’s that protect them! Fairness is a myth! Stop trying to silence us! Decent LAW ABIDING HUMAN BEINGS MATTER and so do our voices. When you protect the wicked, the Anarchist, the deviant, you become One of them!

ALL LIVES MATTER - I support police and motorcycle riders. Patriot Gun Owners Unite!
No Spin Ag
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C@LAg said:

ercot failed at their one task.

all senior mgmt should be fired immediately after being summoned to official hearings.


Everyone who is responsible needs to be held accountable. .
Zobel
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I don't think that's for sure. ERCOT was forecasting 74GW demand Sunday, that is close to or a new all time high. Going into Sunday night we were at 60 of 67 GW of planned thermal power online.

The load looked like it peaked at midnight around 69 GW with 8 or 9 GW coming from wind, but then started going up again as wind dropped off.

The equivalent thermal power to wind is about a 1:3 ratio because wind you only get average out of wind... so the 32 GW of wind we have would be around 10 or 12 GW of thermal. So we would have had ~70GW or so online, assuming all of it had zero cold weather issues.

I don't think we had enough capacity period. Even if we got through Sunday, Monday was even colder and we lost units Sunday night due to cold weather trips.
YouBet
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chris1515 said:

If that is true that an uncontrolled blackout would've rendered the grid useless for months, then every hacker in the world has a new #1 target.
Yep. I'm assuming this is how Texas will fall and go blue. Is the Texas grid one that China gets to play with as well?

Good luck everyone!
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